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WeekIvMinus7dRvPoints":-0.33,"oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints":2.13,"oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints":-2.55},"fitQuality":{"currentObjective":0.00347125,"previousObjective":0.00146856,"currentLiveError":0.85575801,"previousLiveError":1.66777245},"coverage":{"currentListedExpiries":6,"previousListedExpiries":5,"comparedListedExpiries":4,"addedExpiries":["24OCT26","6NOV26"],"removedExpiries":["22OCT26"],"fixedTenors":["1W","2W","1M"],"suppressedFixedTenors":["3M","6M","9M","1Y"]},"commentary":{"source":"codex","model":"gpt-6.1-sol","headline":"Solana options show lower 2w BF25 butterfly","executiveSummary":"The 2W BF25 butterfly change for SOL was -1.06 volatility points over the stored comparison.\n\nNo news item was selected for this report window.","evidenceIds":["bf25","largest-standard-tenor","front-atm","realised-vol","back-atm"],"newsSummary":"No eligible news context was selected.","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":[],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 53.96%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 54.29%; 24-hour realised volatility was 51.83% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.51%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.60 volatility points to 55.17% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.30 volatility points to 1.43% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 decreased, averaging -0.68 volatility points to 3.48% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.91 volatility points at 2W, to 56.48%.","tenor":"2W","value":2.91},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was -3.93% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was -1.05% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change","label":"1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime","text":"SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +1.21 to +1.11 volatility points (-0.10 points). 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are suppressed.\"},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"availability\":\"unavailable\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"rr25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"tenor\":\"1Y\",\"unavailableReason\":\"The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.\"}],\"window_hours\":24.0}}"},"events":[]},"newsContext":{"outcome":"No sufficiently relevant context identified","highest_causal_confidence":"low","section_heading":"No sufficiently relevant context identified","events":[],"coverage_status":"healthy","coverage_basis":"monitored-source-search","summary":"No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window."},"marketRead":{"text":"2W ATM IV rose 2.91 volatility points to 56.48%, a large move at the 93rd percentile among 41 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 51.83% over 24 hours, 54.29% over seven days and 56.51% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 55.17%, +1.60 points from the prior snapshot. Long-dated fixed tenors were suppressed because listed expiries did not bracket them. 1W RR25 moved 1.99 volatility points toward puts to 1.62%, leaving calls richer than puts. 2W BF25 fell 1.06 volatility points to 3.15%. 24-hour spot-index: -3.93%; nearest eligible forward 30OCT26: -3.77% to $104.39. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","wordCount":109,"source":"deterministic structured report facts","evidenceFields":["summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent","realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent","summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move","summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove","newsContext.outcome","newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"]},"facts":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 53.96%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 54.29%; 24-hour realised volatility was 51.83% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.51%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.60 volatility points to 55.17% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.30 volatility points to 1.43% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 decreased, averaging -0.68 volatility points to 3.48% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.91 volatility points at 2W, to 56.48%.","tenor":"2W","value":2.91},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was -3.93% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was -1.05% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"sol-1w-rr25-two-day-whipsaw","label":"Two-day RR25 whipsaw","text":"SOL 1W RR25 adjacent daily moves were +6.02 then -1.99 volatility points; gross movement 8.01 versus net +4.03. 1 strict zero crossings. 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Opposite moves meet the operational whipsaw inspection threshold."}],"sourceCanonicalJson":"{\"currentRows\":[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-22\",\"sourceRevision\":\"captured-surface-inputs-v1:sha256:c62b59eaf2fbd0e0ba26318b4b7041d9c8133fdffd9ebd2f3a8a756925194015\",\"sourceSha256\":\"c62b59eaf2fbd0e0ba26318b4b7041d9c8133fdffd9ebd2f3a8a756925194015\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":738235,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":728159,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":-1.99,\"current\":1.62,\"previous\":3.61},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}],\"historicalRows\":[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-21\",\"sourceRevision\":\"captured-surface-inputs-v1:sha256:b18aba776d19ff614bd7e28c5fc21b264ea6c2c61cc396baaa4011fda87f930b\",\"sourceSha256\":\"b18aba776d19ff614bd7e28c5fc21b264ea6c2c61cc396baaa4011fda87f930b\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":728159,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":718131,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":6.02,\"current\":3.61,\"previous\":-2.41},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]}","sourceSha256":"cb6d80948a6c1399e7ef99e812b834f9774de27d50256ebe6e15f9541da71db4"},"marketDiary":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"local-news-mcp","generatedAt":"2026-10-22T17:28:27+00:00","window":{"startAt":"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00","endAt":"2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00","endExclusive":true},"headline":"Solana options show lower 2w BF25 butterfly","standfirst":"SOL 2W BF25 butterfly is 3.15 percent, compared with 4.21 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.","days":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-22","headline":"Solana options show lower 2w BF25 butterfly","summary":"The 2W BF25 butterfly change for SOL was -1.06 volatility points over the stored comparison. No news item was selected for this report date.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.","events":[]}}]},"newsStatus":"no-relevant-catalyst","headline":"Solana options show lower 2w BF25 butterfly","standfirst":"SOL 2W BF25 butterfly is 3.15 percent, compared with 4.21 percent at the prior cutoff.","leadChart":{"asset":"SOL","metric":"bf25","eventType":"bf25","label":"2W","current":3.15,"previous":4.21,"change":-1.06,"currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00","previousSnapshotAt":"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00","evidenceRef":"summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","provenance":{"kind":"report-event","candidateId":"sol-largestBf25Move","candidateSource":"summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","eventRef":"events[type=bf25,label=2W]","valuesRef":"tenors[tenor=2W].bf25"},"event":{"type":"bf25","title":"Largest standard-tenor BF25 move","label":"2W","value":-1.06}},"crossAssetMarketContext":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"market-context-mcp","status":"available","asset":"SOL","sessionDate":"2026-10-21","asOfTimestamp":"2026-10-21T20:00:00+00:00","summary":"Previous session (latest completed): SOL cross-asset context for 2026-10-21 The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 36.18 points, at the 27.6 percentile across 254 prior observations. 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