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eekIvMinus7dRvPoints":-8.66,"oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints":0.86,"oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints":-4.02},"fitQuality":{"currentObjective":0.00146856,"previousObjective":0.00065315,"currentLiveError":1.66777245,"previousLiveError":5.30386618},"coverage":{"currentListedExpiries":5,"previousListedExpiries":6,"comparedListedExpiries":5,"addedExpiries":[],"removedExpiries":["21OCT26"],"fixedTenors":["1W","2W","1M"],"suppressedFixedTenors":["3M","6M","9M","1Y"]},"commentary":{"source":"codex","model":"gpt-6.1-sol","headline":"Solana options shift from put-rich to call-rich weekly skew","executiveSummary":"Solana one-week RR25 shifted toward calls after moving toward puts in the preceding daily window. Lower near-term ATM implied volatility keeps the broader volatility reading subdued.","evidenceIds":["rr25","sol-1w-rr25-two-day-whipsaw","largest-standard-tenor","realised-vol","back-atm"],"newsSummary":"The Block's report, “Ethereum staking hits record as yields fall and Solana activity grows: Bitwise,” also described falling Ethereum staking yields. That wider staking backdrop complements its Solana ecosystem coverage, retained as context alongside the options reversal. [The Block](https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-20-ethereum-solana-staking-record-yields-fall-bitwise-q3-421414).","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":["cc6ab86c-3f64-4628-9920-8dbd68ce4454"],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 52.96%, 8.66 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 61.62%; 24-hour realised volatility was 52.10% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.98%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.68 volatility points to 53.57% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +4.07 volatility points to 2.73% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 decreased, averaging -0.40 volatility points to 4.16% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.59 volatility points at 1W, to 52.96%.","tenor":"1W","value":-1.59},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was +2.25% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was +4.28% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change","label":"1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime","text":"SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -0.61 to +1.21 volatility points (+1.82 points). 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extrapolated values are suppressed.\"},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"availability\":\"unavailable\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"rr25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"tenor\":\"6M\",\"unavailableReason\":\"The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.\"},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"availability\":\"unavailable\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"rr25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"tenor\":\"9M\",\"unavailableReason\":\"The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.\"},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"availability\":\"unavailable\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"rr25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"tenor\":\"1Y\",\"unavailableReason\":\"The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.\"}],\"window_hours\":24.0}}"},"events":[{"event_cluster_id":"market-event-087589a05369","status":"selected","eventCategory":"unknown","relevance":"broader crypto","relationship":"neutral","causal_confidence":"low","matched_signals":["Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD"],"selection_reason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","primary_article":{"id":"cc6ab86c-3f64-4628-9920-8dbd68ce4454","sourceId":"the_block","publisher":"The Block","title":"Ethereum staking hits record as yields fall and Solana activity grows: Bitwise","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-20-ethereum-solana-staking-record-yields-fall-bitwise-q3-421414","publishedAt":"2026-10-20T16:31:24+00:00","summary":"A record 43.8 million ETH, nearly 36% of supply, was staked in Q3 as yields fell to 2.63%. Solana staking hit a record 440.5 million SOL.","matchedTerms":["ETH","Ethereum","SOL","Solana"],"topics":["tokenomics","other"],"sourceKind":"media","rightsStatus":"link-and-summary","selectionScore":36,"quality":{"eligible":true,"score":36.4,"checks":{"verifiedSourceMetadata":true,"contentKind":true,"status":true},"sourceCount":1,"sourceQuality":0.5851,"signals":{"confidence":0.61,"importance":0.39,"novelty":1.0,"corroboration":0.0,"sourceQuality":0.5851,"effectiveSourceQuality":0.5851,"catalystScore":0.0835,"effectiveCatalystScore":0.0835,"contentKind":"reporting","status":"developing"},"thresholds":{"minimumConfidence":null,"minimumImportance":null,"minimumSourceQuality":0.58,"minimumCatalystScore":null,"minimumMediaReliability":0.6},"policy":"source-backed-context-v1","role":"context","attributionRequired":true},"relevanceReasons":["Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."],"selectionReason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","canonicalEventId":"cc6ab86c-3f64-4628-9920-8dbd68ce4454","status":"selected","eventCategory":"unknown","relevance":"broader crypto","relationship":"neutral","causal_confidence":"low","matched_signals":["Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD"],"selection_reason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","event_cluster_id":"market-event-087589a05369"},"additional_coverage":[]}]},"newsContext":{"outcome":"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst","highest_causal_confidence":"low","section_heading":"Relevant market event","events":[{"event_cluster_id":"market-event-087589a05369","status":"selected","eventCategory":"unknown","relevance":"broader crypto","relationship":"neutral","causal_confidence":"low","matched_signals":["Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD"],"selection_reason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","primary_article":{"id":"cc6ab86c-3f64-4628-9920-8dbd68ce4454","sourceId":"the_block","publisher":"The Block","title":"Ethereum staking hits record as yields fall and Solana activity grows: Bitwise","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-20-ethereum-solana-staking-record-yields-fall-bitwise-q3-421414","publishedAt":"2026-10-20T16:31:24+00:00","summary":"A record 43.8 million ETH, nearly 36% of supply, was staked in Q3 as yields fell to 2.63%. Solana staking hit a record 440.5 million SOL.","matchedTerms":["ETH","Ethereum","SOL","Solana"],"topics":["tokenomics","other"],"sourceKind":"media","rightsStatus":"link-and-summary","selectionScore":36,"quality":{"eligible":true,"score":36.4,"checks":{"verifiedSourceMetadata":true,"contentKind":true,"status":true},"sourceCount":1,"sourceQuality":0.5851,"signals":{"confidence":0.61,"importance":0.39,"novelty":1.0,"corroboration":0.0,"sourceQuality":0.5851,"effectiveSourceQuality":0.5851,"catalystScore":0.0835,"effectiveCatalystScore":0.0835,"contentKind":"reporting","status":"developing"},"thresholds":{"minimumConfidence":null,"minimumImportance":null,"minimumSourceQuality":0.58,"minimumCatalystScore":null,"minimumMediaReliability":0.6},"policy":"source-backed-context-v1","role":"context","attributionRequired":true},"relevanceReasons":["Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."],"selectionReason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","canonicalEventId":"cc6ab86c-3f64-4628-9920-8dbd68ce4454","status":"selected","eventCategory":"unknown","relevance":"broader crypto","relationship":"neutral","causal_confidence":"low","matched_signals":["Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD"],"selection_reason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 30OCT26: +2.56 USD (+2.42%) to 108.48 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","event_cluster_id":"market-event-087589a05369"},"additional_coverage":[]}],"coverage_status":"healthy","coverage_basis":"monitored-source-search"},"marketRead":{"text":"1W RR25 moved 6.02 volatility points toward calls to 3.61%, leaving calls richer than puts; this was an exceptional move at the 100th percentile among 40 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 52.10% over 24 hours, 61.62% over seven days and 56.98% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 53.57%, -0.68 points from the prior snapshot. Long-dated fixed tenors were suppressed because listed expiries did not bracket them. 1W ATM IV fell 1.59 volatility points to 52.96%. 1M BF25 fell 0.69 volatility points to 4.62%. 24-hour spot-index: +2.25%; nearest eligible forward 30OCT26: +2.42% to $108.48. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","wordCount":112,"source":"deterministic structured report facts","evidenceFields":["summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent","realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent","summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move","summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove","newsContext.outcome","newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"]},"facts":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 52.96%, 8.66 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 61.62%; 24-hour realised volatility was 52.10% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.98%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.68 volatility points to 53.57% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +4.07 volatility points to 2.73% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 decreased, averaging -0.40 volatility points to 4.16% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.59 volatility points at 1W, to 52.96%.","tenor":"1W","value":-1.59},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was +2.25% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"SOL spot-index return was +4.28% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"sol-1w-rr25-two-day-whipsaw","label":"Two-day RR25 whipsaw","text":"SOL 1W RR25 adjacent daily moves were -2.20 then +6.02 volatility points; gross movement 8.22 versus net +3.82. 1 strict zero crossings. 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Opposite moves meet the operational whipsaw inspection threshold."}],"sourceCanonicalJson":"{\"currentRows\":[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-21\",\"sourceRevision\":\"captured-surface-inputs-v1:sha256:b18aba776d19ff614bd7e28c5fc21b264ea6c2c61cc396baaa4011fda87f930b\",\"sourceSha256\":\"b18aba776d19ff614bd7e28c5fc21b264ea6c2c61cc396baaa4011fda87f930b\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":728159,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":718131,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":6.02,\"current\":3.61,\"previous\":-2.41},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}],\"historicalRows\":[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-20\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":718131,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":708310,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":-2.2,\"current\":-2.41,\"previous\":-0.21},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]}","sourceSha256":"71ad429fd59813a6b5a7228947467899f8604d9826c60c8064ab5578f033a81e"},"marketDiary":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"local-news-mcp","generatedAt":"2026-10-21T16:50:48+00:00","window":{"startAt":"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00","endAt":"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00","endExclusive":true},"headline":"Solana options shift from put-rich to call-rich weekly skew","standfirst":"Solana one-week call-minus-put RR25 rose 6.02 volatility points to +3.61% over the 24-hour observation window from October 20 to October 21, according to Derivasys data. Solana one-week RR25 stood at -2.41% at the opening snapshot. The sign crossing leaves call-side implied volatility above put-side implied volatility at the measured delta. RR25 compares those sides of the options market; it does not establish an absolute increase in call volatility. The absolute Solana one-week RR25 move reached the 100th percentile against 22 matching daily observations spanning September 22 to October 20. That comparison bounds the historical significance to this sample, while the accompanying decline in near-term ATM implied volatility distinguishes the skew reversal from a general rise in volatility.","days":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-21","headline":"Solana options shift from put-rich to call-rich weekly skew","summary":"Solana one-week RR25 increased 6.02 volatility points to +3.61% during the 24-hour window from October 20 to October 21, crossing into call-rich territory in Derivasys data.\n\nAlongside that relative shift, Solana one-week ATM implied volatility fell 1.59 volatility points to 52.96%. ATM implied volatility describes volatility implied by options near the underlying price. Solana's spot-index return was +2.25% over the matching 24-hour window. At the cutoff, Solana one-week ATM implied volatility stood 8.66 volatility points below Solana seven-day realised volatility of 61.62%, measured from one-minute returns. Comparable long-dated ATM observations were unavailable at both snapshots, limiting assessment of the longer curve.\n\nThe Block's report, “Ethereum staking hits record as yields fall and Solana activity grows: Bitwise,” also described falling Ethereum staking yields. That wider staking backdrop complements its Solana ecosystem coverage, retained as context alongside the options reversal. [The Block](https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-20-ethereum-solana-staking-record-yields-fall-bitwise-q3-421414).","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.","events":[{"eventId":"cc6ab86c-3f64-4628-9920-8dbd68ce4454","title":"Ethereum staking hits record as yields fall and Solana activity grows: Bitwise","publisher":"The Block","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-20-ethereum-solana-staking-record-yields-fall-bitwise-q3-421414","publishedAt":"2026-10-20T16:31:24+00:00"}]}}]},"newsStatus":"context","headline":"Solana options shift from put-rich to call-rich weekly skew","standfirst":"Solana one-week call-minus-put RR25 rose 6.02 volatility points to +3.61% over the 24-hour observation window from October 20 to October 21, according to Derivasys data. Solana one-week RR25 stood at -2.41% at the opening snapshot. The sign crossing leaves call-side implied volatility above put-side implied volatility at the measured delta. RR25 compares those sides of the options market; it does not establish an absolute increase in call volatility. The absolute Solana one-week RR25 move reached the 100th percentile against 22 matching daily observations spanning September 22 to October 20. That comparison bounds the historical significance to this sample, while the accompanying decline in near-term ATM implied volatility distinguishes the skew reversal from a general rise in volatility.","leadChart":{"asset":"SOL","metric":"rr25","eventType":"rr25","label":"1W","current":3.61,"previous":-2.41,"change":6.02,"currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00","previousSnapshotAt":"2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00","evidenceRef":"summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move","provenance":{"kind":"report-event","candidateId":"sol-largestRr25Move","candidateSource":"summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move","eventRef":"events[type=rr25,label=1W]","valuesRef":"tenors[tenor=1W].rr25"},"event":{"type":"rr25","title":"Largest standard-tenor RR25 move","label":"1W","value":6.02}},"crossAssetMarketContext":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"market-context-mcp","status":"available","asset":"SOL","sessionDate":"2026-10-20","asOfTimestamp":"2026-10-20T20:00:00+00:00","summary":"Previous session (latest completed): SOL cross-asset context for 2026-10-20 The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 34.93 points, at the 24.9 percentile across 253 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.39 from 60 aligned observations.","regimeInsights":["The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 34.93 points, at the 24.9 percentile across 253 prior observations.","The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.39 from 60 aligned observations."],"metrics":{"cryptoAtmIv30d":54.45,"vix":17.309999465942383,"vix9d":16.270000457763672,"vix3m":18.989999771118164,"ivSpread":37.14000053405762,"ivRatio":3.1455806863039473,"cryptoRealisedVol20d":44.05024308624011,"spxRealisedVol20":9.117811077372918,"rvSpread":34.93243200886719,"rvRatio":4.831230074020369,"rvSpreadPercentile":24.90118577075099,"rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount":253,"rvRatioPercentile":37.15415019762846,"rvRatioPercentileSampleCount":253,"returnCorrelation30":0.5669458099269682,"returnCorrelation30SampleCount":30,"returnCorrelation60":0.39379586393588095,"returnCorrelation60SampleCount":60},"methodology":"market-context-v1"},"editorialContext":{"version":2,"status":"active","scope":"daily options-surface movements","statement":null,"chosenStoryId":"sol-largestRr25Move","preferredLeadId":null,"eligibilityTests":{"dailySingleAsset":true,"completeNativeDailySurface":true,"allSurfaceHistoryEligible":true,"noExceptionalSupportedSurfaceEvent":false,"supportedAtmLeadAvailable":true,"chosenAtmLead":false},"nativeObservations":[{"id":"sol-largestRr25Move","tenor":"1W","metric":"rr25","current":3.61,"previous":-2.41,"change":6.02},{"id":"sol-largestBf25Move","tenor":"1M","metric":"bf25","current":4.62,"previous":5.31,"change":-0.69},{"id":"sol-largestAtmMove","tenor":"1W","metric":"atmIv","current":52.96,"previous":54.55,"change":-1.59}],"strongCandidateIds":["sol-largestRr25Move","sol-largestBf25Move"],"supportingContext":[{"id":"sol-spot-24h","historicalContext":{"status":"available","observationKind":"change","basis":"absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; 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