{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "generatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:34:04+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 668211, "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 658132, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "SOL", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical SOL index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical SOL-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 1.24, "rv24hPercent": 92.93, "rv7dPercent": 63.19, "rv30dPercent": 59.17, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "SOL", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "e1278229e8caf1ceea592b1ee5d99c7d96b8ec343e6b0efa880c6af9af5dddb1", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 75.52, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 75.92, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 76.8, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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}, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Solana options: 1w RR25 flips positive with a 4.28-point shift toward calls", "executiveSummary": "Solana 1M ATM IV rose 2.29 volatility points to 57.42% against the October 14 cutoff. The SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope crossed from negative to positive, leaving 1M ATM IV above 1W ATM IV. Meanwhile, Solana 1W butterfly BF25 fell 1.14 volatility points to 3.41 volatility points, reducing the average 25-delta wing-IV premium over ATM. Longer fixed-tenor comparisons remained unavailable because listed expiries did not bracket those targets at both snapshots.", "evidenceIds": [ "rr25", "largest-standard-tenor", "sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "realised-vol", "spot-index-24h" ], "newsSummary": "Solana-specific news supplied corporate and product context. The Block reported that [DeFi Development increased its CHAD preferred-stock dividend](https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-15-defi-development-chad-dividend-rate-14-418694) while seeking to expand its SOL holdings, and covered [Ledger's Atom announcement and planned Solana Mobile integration](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-15-ledger-atom-solana-mobile-418644). Separately, it reported [shareholder questions about SkyAI's SOL treasury reduction](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-14-solana-treasury-skyai-bastion-sol-sales-tender-offer-418598); claims concerning unexplained sales remain attributed to the shareholder. These are provisional, single-source reports with no established link to the skew reversal.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 56.05%, 7.14 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 63.19%; 24-hour realised volatility was 92.93% and 30-day realised volatility was 59.17%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.22 volatility points to 56.96% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +2.94 volatility points to 1.43% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to 4.52% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.29 volatility points at 1M, to 57.42%.", "tenor": "1M", "value": 2.29 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was +1.24% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -2.98% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -1.10 to +1.37 volatility points (+2.47 points). 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The 4.28-point shift toward calls accompanied a much smaller adjustment in 1W ATM implied volatility, which fell 0.18 points to 56.05%.", "eventsSelected": 3 }, "items": [ { "id": "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Major shareholder presses SkyAI on Solana sales after treasury shrinks 70% in a month", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-14-solana-treasury-skyai-bastion-sol-sales-tender-offer-418598", "publishedAt": "2026-10-14T18:25:54+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL context: The Block reports shareholder questions about SkyAI's SOL treasury reduction. Attribute disputed or unexplained-sale claims; provisional single-source reporting, no clear causal link.", "matchedTerms": [ "Bastion Trading", "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 38, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 38.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.454, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0972, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0972, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7355497506b4" }, { "id": "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "DeFi Development boosts CHAD dividend to 14% amid push to grow Solana holdings", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-15-defi-development-chad-dividend-rate-14-418694", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:48:32+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL and majors context: The Block reports a CHAD preferred-stock dividend increase from 13% to 14% as DeFi Development seeks to grow its SOL treasury. Provisional single-source reporting; broader_crypto corporate context.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6599b132654c" }, { "id": "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Ledger unveils Atom Android device with Solana Mobile integration and new tamper protections amid investigation into modified wallets", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-15-ledger-atom-solana-mobile-418644", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL context: attribute the Atom announcement and Solana Mobile integration to The Block. Preserve announced/future availability; do not treat it as an options catalyst.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-102852d9ca49" } ], "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7355497506b4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Major shareholder presses SkyAI on Solana sales after treasury shrinks 70% in a month", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-14-solana-treasury-skyai-bastion-sol-sales-tender-offer-418598", "publishedAt": "2026-10-14T18:25:54+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL context: The Block reports shareholder questions about SkyAI's SOL treasury reduction. Attribute disputed or unexplained-sale claims; provisional single-source reporting, no clear causal link.", "matchedTerms": [ "Bastion Trading", "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 38, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 38.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.454, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0972, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0972, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7355497506b4" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6599b132654c", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "DeFi Development boosts CHAD dividend to 14% amid push to grow Solana holdings", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-15-defi-development-chad-dividend-rate-14-418694", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:48:32+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL and majors context: The Block reports a CHAD preferred-stock dividend increase from 13% to 14% as DeFi Development seeks to grow its SOL treasury. Provisional single-source reporting; broader_crypto corporate context.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6599b132654c" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-102852d9ca49", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Ledger unveils Atom Android device with Solana Mobile integration and new tamper protections amid investigation into modified wallets", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-15-ledger-atom-solana-mobile-418644", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL context: attribute the Atom announcement and Solana Mobile integration to The Block. Preserve announced/future availability; do not treat it as an options catalyst.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-102852d9ca49" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market events", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7355497506b4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Major shareholder presses SkyAI on Solana sales after treasury shrinks 70% in a month", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-14-solana-treasury-skyai-bastion-sol-sales-tender-offer-418598", "publishedAt": "2026-10-14T18:25:54+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL context: The Block reports shareholder questions about SkyAI's SOL treasury reduction. Attribute disputed or unexplained-sale claims; provisional single-source reporting, no clear causal link.", "matchedTerms": [ "Bastion Trading", "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 38, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 38.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.454, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0972, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0972, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7355497506b4" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6599b132654c", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "DeFi Development boosts CHAD dividend to 14% amid push to grow Solana holdings", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-15-defi-development-chad-dividend-rate-14-418694", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:48:32+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL and majors context: The Block reports a CHAD preferred-stock dividend increase from 13% to 14% as DeFi Development seeks to grow its SOL treasury. Provisional single-source reporting; broader_crypto corporate context.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6599b132654c" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-102852d9ca49", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Ledger unveils Atom Android device with Solana Mobile integration and new tamper protections amid investigation into modified wallets", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-15-ledger-atom-solana-mobile-418644", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Selected SOL context: attribute the Atom announcement and Solana Mobile integration to The Block. Preserve announced/future availability; do not treat it as an options catalyst.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 23OCT26: +1.33 USD (+1.28%) to 105.47 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-102852d9ca49" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1W RR25 moved 4.28 volatility points toward calls to 0.95%, leaving calls richer than puts; this was an exceptional move at the 100th percentile among 22 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 92.93% over 24 hours, 63.19% over seven days and 59.17% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 56.96%, +1.22 points from the prior snapshot. Long-dated fixed tenors were suppressed because listed expiries did not bracket them. 1M ATM IV rose 2.29 volatility points to 57.42%. 1W BF25 fell 1.14 volatility points to 3.41%. 24-hour spot-index: +1.24%; nearest eligible forward 23OCT26: +1.28% to $105.47. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 112, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 56.05%, 7.14 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 63.19%; 24-hour realised volatility was 92.93% and 30-day realised volatility was 59.17%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.22 volatility points to 56.96% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +2.94 volatility points to 1.43% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to 4.52% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.29 volatility points at 1M, to 57.42%.", "tenor": "1M", "value": 2.29 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was +1.24% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -2.98% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 1.22, "rr25Change": 2.94, "bf25Change": 0.09, "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1M", "current": 57.42, "previous": 55.13, "change": 2.29, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 2.29, "currentLevel": 57.42, "movePercentile30d": 86.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 91.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 92.7, "classificationPercentile": 91.2, "label": "large", "observations30d": 22, "observationsFullHistory": 34, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 41, "provenance": { "schemaVersion": 2, "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "eligibilityPolicy": "known native timestamps; end <= current start; matching UTC endpoint clocks and supported horizon", "sourceEndpoints": [ { "date": "2026-08-29", "snapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "fitRunId": 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0.44},\"has_lower_expiry\":true,\"has_upper_expiry\":true,\"is_extrapolated\":false,\"label\":\"1W\",\"risk_reversal_nodes_json\":{\"10C\":{\"delta\":0.09999999548705485,\"delta_error\":-4.512945156465165e-09,\"label\":\"10C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.105337349685016,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":119.80685009026963,\"target_delta\":0.1,\"vol\":59.31},\"10P\":{\"delta\":-0.10000000088619851,\"delta_error\":-8.8619850346916e-10,\"label\":\"10P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.10318329156699382,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":97.25731733421762,\"target_delta\":-0.1,\"vol\":62.3},\"15C\":{\"delta\":0.14999999780300474,\"delta_error\":-2.1969952523903657e-09,\"label\":\"15C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.08253343401215352,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":117.10570023354873,\"target_delta\":0.15,\"vol\":57.12},\"15P\":{\"delta\":-0.1499999990039806,\"delta_error\":9.960194058411531e-10,\"label\":\"15P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.07901880329162972,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":99.63611611453543,\"target_delta\":-0.15,\"vol\":59.35},\"20C\":{\"delta\":0.2000000031828034,\"delta_error\":3.182803381962529e-09,\"label\":\"20C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.06606042855547256,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":115.19241940282237,\"target_delta\":0.2,\"vol\":55.88},\"20P\":{\"delta\":-0.1999999995160349,\"delta_error\":4.839651179811e-10,\"label\":\"20P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.06176720080490625,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":101.36991115399775,\"target_delta\":-0.2,\"vol\":57.6},\"25C\":{\"delta\":0.2500000042267273,\"delta_error\":4.226727301492872e-09,\"label\":\"25C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0527421032845024,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":113.66842037673467,\"target_delta\":0.25,\"vol\":55.09},\"25P\":{\"delta\":-0.2499999977120254,\"delta_error\":2.287974587567021e-09,\"label\":\"25P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.04794892411616626,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":102.78039139376449,\"target_delta\":-0.25,\"vol\":56.44},\"30C\":{\"delta\":0.2999999928469863,\"delta_error\":-7.153013681371334e-09,\"label\":\"30C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.04124382107488694,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":112.36891416284365,\"target_delta\":0.3,\"vol\":54.59},\"30P\":{\"delta\":-0.30000000171192204,\"delta_error\":-1.711922048563963e-09,\"label\":\"30P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.036113503286761564,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":104.00406765662494,\"target_delta\":-0.3,\"vol\":55.61},\"35C\":{\"delta\":0.3499999927752538,\"delta_error\":-7.224746190193088e-09,\"label\":\"35C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.030867125746989764,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":111.20892501179644,\"target_delta\":0.35,\"vol\":54.27},\"35P\":{\"delta\":-0.3500000075191267,\"delta_error\":-7.519126710153756e-09,\"label\":\"35P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.025508133050795953,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":105.1129389019858,\"target_delta\":-0.35,\"vol\":55.02},\"40C\":{\"delta\":0.3999999987329188,\"delta_error\":-1.2670812177262292e-09,\"label\":\"40C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.021187132492175166,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":110.1376168609647,\"target_delta\":0.4,\"vol\":54.11},\"40P\":{\"delta\":-0.3999999940675361,\"delta_error\":5.9324639090085896e-09,\"label\":\"40P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.01567949139343577,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":106.15115005693232,\"target_delta\":-0.4,\"vol\":54.59},\"5C\":{\"delta\":0.049999998895984075,\"delta_error\":-1.104015927289037e-09,\"label\":\"5C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.14600386872507032,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":124.77940053194634,\"target_delta\":0.05,\"vol\":64.36},\"5P\":{\"delta\":-0.05000000718894768,\"delta_error\":-7.188947680203395e-09,\"label\":\"5P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.14701400200272435,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":93.08653196082032,\"target_delta\":-0.05,\"vol\":68.83},\"AMTF\":{\"delta\":0.49999999582315874,\"delta_error\":-4.176841261749331e-09,\"label\":\"AMTF\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":107.82866300818452,\"target_delta\":0.5,\"vol\":54.13}},\"risk_reversals_json\":{\"rr_05\":-4.47,\"rr_10\":-2.99,\"rr_15\":-2.23,\"rr_20\":-1.72,\"rr_25\":-1.35,\"rr_30\":-1.02,\"rr_35\":-0.75,\"rr_40\":-0.48},\"row_kind\":\"fixed_tenor\"}],\"qualityPolicy\":\"fixed_tenor; non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:95a841584648f5da15fd7f7b2e38d4cd672b3ba5d54284c52725be238064bb24\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.1,\"current\":56.23,\"percentChange\":3.88,\"previous\":54.13},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.17,\"current\":55.13,\"percentChange\":2.17,\"previous\":53.96},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-02T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -1.10 to +1.37 volatility points (+2.47 points). It crossed zero from negative to positive.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-15\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":668211,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":658132,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.18,\"current\":56.05,\"percentChange\":-0.32,\"previous\":56.23},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.29,\"current\":57.42,\"percentChange\":4.15,\"previous\":55.13},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "f80d9f56df85f081f0c3272ae02f42303e8fac86e7f895d7d216954dfb325c0a", "materialRegimeChange": true } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:43:23+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Solana options: 1w RR25 flips positive with a 4.28-point shift toward calls", "standfirst": "Solana 1W RR25 swung from -3.33 to +0.95 volatility points between the October 14 and October 15 cutoffs, reversing the call-minus-put implied-volatility balance. The 4.28-point shift toward calls accompanied a much smaller adjustment in 1W ATM implied volatility, which fell 0.18 points to 56.05%.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "headline": "Solana options: 1w RR25 flips positive with a 4.28-point shift toward calls", "summary": "Solana 1W RR25 crossed zero as it rose 4.28 volatility points from -3.33 to +0.95 over the 24 hours ending October 15 at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. At the measured 25 delta, call implied volatility now exceeded put implied volatility. The absolute daily RR25 change ranked at the 100th percentile among 22 matching daily observations in the September 14–October 14 history window.\n\nSolana-specific news supplied corporate and product context. The Block reported that [DeFi Development increased its CHAD preferred-stock dividend](https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-15-defi-development-chad-dividend-rate-14-418694) while seeking to expand its SOL holdings, and covered [Ledger's Atom announcement and planned Solana Mobile integration](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-15-ledger-atom-solana-mobile-418644). Separately, it reported [shareholder questions about SkyAI's SOL treasury reduction](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-14-solana-treasury-skyai-bastion-sol-sales-tender-offer-418598); claims concerning unexplained sales remain attributed to the shareholder. These are provisional, single-source reports with no established link to the skew reversal.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.", "events": [ { "eventId": "73f40054-bdaa-4c0d-960e-5402e084c1e4", "title": "DeFi Development boosts CHAD dividend to 14% amid push to grow Solana holdings", "publisher": "The Block", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-15-defi-development-chad-dividend-rate-14-418694", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:48:32+00:00" }, { "eventId": "a6bb7d7f-8f60-4355-ad0a-1e9cc58b636a", "title": "Ledger unveils Atom Android device with Solana Mobile integration and new tamper protections amid investigation into modified wallets", "publisher": "The Block", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-15-ledger-atom-solana-mobile-418644", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "eventId": "5732c109-912c-460e-9b1e-097d3b1785aa", "title": "Major shareholder presses SkyAI on Solana sales after treasury shrinks 70% in a month", "publisher": "The Block", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-14-solana-treasury-skyai-bastion-sol-sales-tender-offer-418598", "publishedAt": "2026-10-14T18:25:54+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Solana options: 1w RR25 flips positive with a 4.28-point shift toward calls", "standfirst": "Solana 1W RR25 swung from -3.33 to +0.95 volatility points between the October 14 and October 15 cutoffs, reversing the call-minus-put implied-volatility balance. The 4.28-point shift toward calls accompanied a much smaller adjustment in 1W ATM implied volatility, which fell 0.18 points to 56.05%.", "leadChart": { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "eventType": "rr25", "label": "1W", "current": 0.95, "previous": -3.33, "change": 4.28, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "sol-largestRr25Move", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "eventRef": "events[type=rr25,label=1W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=1W].rr25" }, "event": { "type": "rr25", "title": "Largest standard-tenor RR25 move", "label": "1W", "value": 4.28 } }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "SOL", "sessionDate": "2026-10-14", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-14T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session requested as of 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00. Crypto and benchmark observations are timestamped 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 34.93 points, at the 23.7 percentile across 249 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.39 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 34.93 points, at the 23.7 percentile across 249 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.39 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 54.95, "vix": 16.8700008392334, "vix9d": 14.59000015258789, "vix3m": 18.790000915527344, "ivSpread": 38.079999160766604, "ivRatio": 3.2572612487491153, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 45.2297560305094, "spxRealisedVol20": 10.29795811370241, "rvSpread": 34.931797916806985, "rvRatio": 4.39210914737815, "rvSpreadPercentile": 23.694779116465863, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 249, "rvRatioPercentile": 29.718875502008032, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 249, "returnCorrelation30": 0.5682848196406192, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.3910411583315395, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1. Derivasys 30-calendar-day ATM IV uses ACT/365; crypto 20-calendar-day RV uses sqrt(365), SPX 20-US-session RV uses sqrt(252). Mixed annualisation is preserved. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session returns. Provider Derivasys+yahoo_finance; sources Derivasys canonical index/surface, ^GSPC, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M. Ingested 2026-10-14T22:30:50.455123Z. Returned freshness fresh, ageSeconds 73860, evaluatedAt 2026-10-15T16:31:00Z; quality valid. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with sampleCount 31. All metric observation timestamps are 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z." }, "materialCandidates": [ { "id": "sol-largestRr25Move", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 4.28, "current": 0.95, "previous": -3.33, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 100.0, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 2.5758, "score": 51.439, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 100.0, "observations": 22, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 22, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-14", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:3b1d1a31980ff8432b916e10efd1729e4412c702c61813085f0f5fcc3a586bf6" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 4.28, "magnitudeScore": 8.56, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 42.879, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 51.439, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 100.0, "tailDistance": 50.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 51.439 }, "story": "SOL 1W RR25 moved higher by 4.28", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 51.439, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-largestBf25Move", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -1.14, "current": 3.41, "previous": 4.55, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 94.1, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.5632, "score": 38.836, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 94.1, "observations": 34, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 34, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-02", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-02T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:d42a7e0b22ad167c4719a0df45ab9539e182300452a045f68d337175ba72f7b0" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 2.28, "magnitudeScore": 4.56, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 34.276, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 38.836, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 94.1, "tailDistance": 44.1, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 38.836 }, "story": "SOL 1W BF25 moved lower by 1.14", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 38.836, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-largestAtmMove", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "atmIv", "metricLabel": "ATM IV", "tenor": "1M", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 2.29, "current": 57.42, "previous": 55.13, "relativeChangePercent": 4.1538, "historicalPercentile": 91.2, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.3532, "score": 36.066, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 91.2, "observations": 34, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 34, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-02", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-02T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:6351561483b5dba09a7d4deb376d104e43162174b0dda4f23498ee0b9b07faa9" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 2.29, "magnitudeScore": 4.58, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 31.486, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 36.066, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 91.2, "tailDistance": 41.2, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 36.066 }, "story": "SOL 1M ATM IV moved higher by 2.29", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 36.066, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "termStructureDivergence", "metricLabel": "term-structure divergence", "tenor": "1M minus 1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 2.47, "current": 1.37, "previous": -1.1, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 70.6, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.5417, "score": 25.5385, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "percentile": 70.6, "observations": 34, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-02T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.rows[asset=SOL]" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "a3dafa97c51367724d1557342d51776c886dc4dc2aa3f33359361486f8b5f213" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.235, "magnitudeScore": 2.47, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 15.0685, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 25.5385, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 70.6, "tailDistance": 20.6, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1 + verified genuine-crossing bonus", "crossingBonus": 8.0, "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 25.5385 }, "story": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -1.10 to +1.37 volatility points (+2.47 points). It crossed zero from negative to positive.", "source": "termStructureRegimeChange", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "kind": "termStructureRegimeChange", "evidence": { "version": 2, "kind": "termStructureRegimeChange", "id": "sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope", "unit": "volatility points", "tenors": [ "1W", "1M" ], "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "previous": -1.1, "current": 1.37, "change": 2.47, "previousRegime": "inverted", "currentRegime": "upward-sloping", "crossing": "negative-to-positive", "isGenuineSignCrossing": true, "zeroTouch": false, "direction": "higher", "observations": [ { "tenor": "1W", "current": 56.05, "previous": 56.23, "change": -0.18, "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous", 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:95a841584648f5da15fd7f7b2e38d4cd672b3ba5d54284c52725be238064bb24\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.1,\"current\":56.23,\"percentChange\":3.88,\"previous\":54.13},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.17,\"current\":55.13,\"percentChange\":2.17,\"previous\":53.96},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-02T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -1.10 to +1.37 volatility points (+2.47 points). It crossed zero from negative to positive.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-15\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":668211,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":658132,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.18,\"current\":56.05,\"percentChange\":-0.32,\"previous\":56.23},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.29,\"current\":57.42,\"percentChange\":4.15,\"previous\":55.13},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "f80d9f56df85f081f0c3272ae02f42303e8fac86e7f895d7d216954dfb325c0a", "materialRegimeChange": true }, "scoring": { "version": 1, "crossingBonus": 8.0, "basis": "verified genuine sign crossing, not a historical rarity claim" }, "selectionScore": 25.5385, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-smile-rotation", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "smileRotation", "metricLabel": "smile rotation", "tenor": null, "expiry": "23OCT26", "observationKind": "change", "change": 7.934, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 15.868, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 7.934, "magnitudeScore": 15.868, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 15.868, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 15.868 }, "story": "SOL 23OCT26 smile rotation moved higher by 7.93", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 15.868, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-implied-realised-7d", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "impliedRealised", "metricLabel": "implied-versus-realised spread", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": -7.14, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 1.428, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.714, "magnitudeScore": 1.428, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.714, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.428, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 1.428 }, "story": "SOL 1W implied-versus-realised spread stood at -7.14", "source": "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 1.428, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-spot-24h", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 1.24, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 28.8, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.5592, "score": 1.24, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 28.8, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-16T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "e1278229e8caf1ceea592b1ee5d99c7d96b8ec343e6b0efa880c6af9af5dddb1" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "percent", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.62, "magnitudeScore": 1.24, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.62, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.24, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 28.8, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 1.24 }, "story": "SOL spot-index return was +1.24% over 24 hours", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "metricWindow": "24h", "spotReturnEvidence": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 103.8698, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 105.1619, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": 1.24, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "e1278229e8caf1ceea592b1ee5d99c7d96b8ec343e6b0efa880c6af9af5dddb1" }, "selectionScore": 1.24, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; 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extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null } } ], "realisedVolatility": { "spotMove24hPercent": 1.24, "spotMove7dPercent": -2.98, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "SOL", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "windows": { "24h": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 103.8698, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 105.1619, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": 1.24, "unavailableReason": null } } } } } } ], "lead": { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W" } }, "currentProjectionSha256": "20984a21ff7dd25d5c39d70e339f56e590025ab86696b5508c709ffc801a6d4a", "prior": null }, "opening": { "status": "complete", "reason": null, "basis": "selected-headline-tenor", "tenor": "1W", "movements": [ { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "spot", "tenor": null, "previous": 103.8698, "current": 105.1619, "change": 1.24, "unit": "percent", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].report.realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" ] }, { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1W", "previous": 56.23, "current": 56.05, "change": -0.18, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change" ] }, { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W", "previous": -3.33, "current": 0.95, "change": 4.28, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.previous", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.current", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.change" ] }, { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "bf25", "tenor": "1W", "previous": 4.55, "current": 3.41, "change": -1.14, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change" ] } ] }, "followThrough": { "status": "unavailable", "reason": "verified-adjacent-published-edition-unavailable", "priorReportDate": null, "comparisons": [], "breadthChanges": [], "recordedWatchStatus": "unavailable", "recordedWatchReason": "recorded-watch-unavailable", "watchEvaluations": [] }, "watchlist": [ { "id": "SOL:rr25:1W:observed-current-level", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W", "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.previous", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.current", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.change" ], "currentBaseline": 0.95, "threshold": 0.95, "comparator": "gte", "thresholdPolicy": "observed-current-level", "basis": "continuation-at-observed-level", "nextAlignedCutoff": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "evaluationWindow": { "start": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00" } }, { "id": "SOL:rr25:1W:observed-previous-level", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W", "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.previous", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.current", "rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.change" ], "currentBaseline": 0.95, "threshold": -3.33, "comparator": "lte", "thresholdPolicy": "observed-previous-level", "basis": "full-retrace-to-observed-level", "nextAlignedCutoff": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "evaluationWindow": { "start": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00" } } ] } }