{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "generatedAt": "2026-10-14T16:33:32+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 658124, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 648112, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "SOL", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical SOL index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical SOL-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -3.45, "rv24hPercent": 67.95, "rv7dPercent": 57.27, "rv30dPercent": 57.38, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "SOL", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "6666448aa752938042e1b1177c7adfbbcbd25038b2d9db4c3a92bcf19e935fe4", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-15T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 75.42, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 75.55, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-17T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 75.93, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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"commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Solana options: 1w BF25 butterfly rises 1.29 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "Over the same snapshot comparison, Solana 2W RR25 fell 2.16 volatility points from +0.76 to -1.40 volatility points. The crossing places 25-delta put IV above call IV at 2W, reversing the prior relationship. This difference between the wings does not establish an absolute increase in put IV.\n\nSolana 1W ATM IV rose 2.18 volatility points to 56.22%, while ATM IV across 1W, 2W and 1M increased an average 1.62 volatility points to 55.73%. At the cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 1.05 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 57.27%; this gap alone does not establish option cheapness. The SOL spot-index return was -3.45% over 24 hours. Longer fixed-tenor readings remain unavailable because listed expiries did not bracket those targets at both snapshots.", "evidenceIds": [ "bf25", "front-atm", "back-atm", "realised-vol", "spot-index-24h", "largest-standard-tenor" ], "newsSummary": "In ecosystem news, [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/tokenized-stocks-after-hours-trading-solana-bnb-chain) reported that most tokenized-stock trading on Solana and BNB Chain occurs outside US market hours. The October 13 report supplies provisional single-source context on trading activity, with no clear link established to the butterfly or skew changes.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "827cff10-af40-47f5-9d09-4b5fb81f20ed" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 56.22%, 1.05 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 57.27%; 24-hour realised volatility was 67.95% and 30-day realised volatility was 57.38%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.62 volatility points to 55.73% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.96 volatility points to -1.51% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.87 volatility points to 4.43% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.18 volatility points at 1W, to 56.22%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 2.18 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -3.45% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -11.15% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -0.03 to -1.09 volatility points (-1.06 points). 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At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 67.95% over 24 hours, 57.27% over seven days and 57.38% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 55.73%, +1.62 points from the prior snapshot. Long-dated fixed tenors were suppressed because listed expiries did not bracket them. 2W RR25 moved 2.16 volatility points toward puts to -1.40%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 1.29 volatility points to 4.57%. 24-hour spot-index: -3.45%; nearest eligible forward 23OCT26: -3.53% to $104.04. 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s_lower_expiry\":true,\"has_upper_expiry\":true,\"is_extrapolated\":false,\"label\":\"1W\",\"risk_reversal_nodes_json\":{\"10C\":{\"delta\":0.09999999875749073,\"delta_error\":-1.242509276022652e-09,\"label\":\"10C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.09386450468771593,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":119.67529836474945,\"target_delta\":0.1,\"vol\":53.9},\"10P\":{\"delta\":-0.10000000514779096,\"delta_error\":-5.147790957393816e-09,\"label\":\"10P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.08792715541174992,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":99.78227559548071,\"target_delta\":-0.1,\"vol\":53.16},\"15C\":{\"delta\":0.1499999979502833,\"delta_error\":-2.049716701923998e-09,\"label\":\"15C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0727227836667656,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":117.17171487746853,\"target_delta\":0.15,\"vol\":51.29},\"15P\":{\"delta\":-0.15000000271062738,\"delta_error\":-2.710627389213016e-09,\"label\":\"15P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.0673112746665474,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":101.86072601889143,\"target_delta\":-0.15,\"vol\":50.6},\"20C\":{\"delta\":0.200000007186625,\"delta_error\":7.18662498955247e-09,\"label\":\"20C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.057727616886149594,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":115.42781319615605,\"target_delta\":0.2,\"vol\":49.75},\"20P\":{\"delta\":-0.19999999952211547,\"delta_error\":4.778845374975305e-10,\"label\":\"20P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.052707808026186784,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":103.35916027084282,\"target_delta\":-0.2,\"vol\":49.16},\"25C\":{\"delta\":0.24999999665411482,\"delta_error\":-3.3458851800283185e-09,\"label\":\"25C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.04577104494513817,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":114.05591021587676,\"target_delta\":0.25,\"vol\":48.73},\"25P\":{\"delta\":-0.24999999793933605,\"delta_error\":2.060663945036012e-09,\"label\":\"25P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.0410349062155609,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":104.5727307647997,\"target_delta\":-0.25,\"vol\":48.25},\"30C\":{\"delta\":0.300000005907817,\"delta_error\":5.907817013373062e-09,\"label\":\"30C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0355626885398914,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":112.89750957733634,\"target_delta\":0.3,\"vol\":48.03},\"30P\":{\"delta\":-0.3000000003747335,\"delta_error\":-3.7473352199057786e-10,\"label\":\"30P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.031031337615005195,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":105.62408111091565,\"target_delta\":-0.3,\"vol\":47.64},\"35C\":{\"delta\":0.3499999933465879,\"delta_error\":-6.6534120990446866e-09,\"label\":\"35C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.026435208541430902,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":111.87172833722171,\"target_delta\":0.35,\"vol\":47.54},\"35P\":{\"delta\":-0.35000000410198956,\"delta_error\":-4.101989581339893e-09,\"label\":\"35P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.02204874093858243,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":106.57713366596874,\"target_delta\":-0.35,\"vol\":47.25},\"40C\":{\"delta\":0.40000000420277826,\"delta_error\":4.202778236539473e-09,\"label\":\"40C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.017987844183473406,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":110.9306873405808,\"target_delta\":0.4,\"vol\":47.2},\"40P\":{\"delta\":-0.39999999591620716,\"delta_error\":4.083792859432833e-09,\"label\":\"40P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.013698098517938226,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":107.4708475485033,\"target_delta\":-0.4,\"vol\":47.01},\"5C\":{\"delta\":0.04999999413756494,\"delta_error\":-5.862435065173699e-09,\"label\":\"5C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.13257884760799693,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":124.39930224432146,\"target_delta\":0.05,\"vol\":59.68},\"5P\":{\"delta\":-0.04999999862642233,\"delta_error\":1.3735776752121787e-09,\"label\":\"5P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.126328975383262,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":96.02309623659828,\"target_delta\":-0.05,\"vol\":59.32},\"AMTF\":{\"delta\":0.4999999977574658,\"delta_error\":-2.2425342138809867e-09,\"label\":\"AMTF\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":108.9531228047619,\"target_delta\":0.5,\"vol\":46.88}},\"risk_reversals_json\":{\"rr_05\":0.36,\"rr_10\":0.74,\"rr_15\":0.69,\"rr_20\":0.59,\"rr_25\":0.48,\"rr_30\":0.39,\"rr_35\":0.29,\"rr_40\":0.19},\"row_kind\":\"fixed_tenor\"}],\"qualityPolicy\":\"fixed_tenor; non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:ff2d0a2e4984388950599fc7618d1396ff85e9c9b6c520674d82c00d345e49a0\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":7.16,\"current\":54.04,\"percentChange\":15.27,\"previous\":46.88},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.44,\"current\":54.01,\"percentChange\":4.73,\"previous\":51.57},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -0.03 to -1.09 volatility points (-1.06 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-14\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":658124,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":648112,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.18,\"current\":56.22,\"percentChange\":4.03,\"previous\":54.04},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.12,\"current\":55.13,\"percentChange\":2.07,\"previous\":54.01},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "737afdc79bfc1f6d16800f84f88bcda8daf3d47c92cad5f6cd34f62bde45a8bd", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-14T17:00:34+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Solana options: 1w BF25 butterfly rises 1.29 volatility points", "standfirst": "Solana 1W BF25 rose 1.29 volatility points from 3.28 to 4.57 between the October 13 and October 14 16:30 UTC snapshots. This butterfly increase widened the average 25-delta wing-IV premium over ATM IV. A separate 2W RR25 sign crossing shifted the call-versus-put volatility relationship towards puts.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "headline": "Solana options: 1w BF25 butterfly rises 1.29 volatility points", "summary": "Solana 1W BF25 increased from 3.28 to 4.57 volatility points, a daily rise of 1.29 points against the October 13 16:30 UTC baseline, according to Derivasys data. The absolute daily butterfly change stood at the 97.1 percentile among 34 matching daily changes from August 29 through October 13, 2026. BF25 measures average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV; the percentile concerns the change, rather than the current level.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "In ecosystem news, [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/tokenized-stocks-after-hours-trading-solana-bnb-chain) reported that most tokenized-stock trading on Solana and BNB Chain occurs outside US market hours. The October 13 report supplies provisional single-source context on trading activity, with no clear link established to the butterfly or skew changes.", "events": [ { "eventId": "827cff10-af40-47f5-9d09-4b5fb81f20ed", "title": "Most tokenized stock trading on Solana, BNB Chain occurs outside US market hours", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/tokenized-stocks-after-hours-trading-solana-bnb-chain", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T19:48:06+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Solana options: 1w BF25 butterfly rises 1.29 volatility points", "standfirst": "Solana 1W BF25 rose 1.29 volatility points from 3.28 to 4.57 between the October 13 and October 14 16:30 UTC snapshots. This butterfly increase widened the average 25-delta wing-IV premium over ATM IV. A separate 2W RR25 sign crossing shifted the call-versus-put volatility relationship towards puts.", "leadChart": { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "bf25", "eventType": "bf25", "label": "1W", "current": 4.57, "previous": 3.28, "change": 1.29, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "sol-largestBf25Move", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "eventRef": "events[type=bf25,label=1W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=1W].bf25" }, "event": { "type": "bf25", "title": "Largest standard-tenor BF25 move", "label": "1W", "value": 1.29 } }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "SOL", "sessionDate": "2026-10-13", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-13T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common US session at or before the requested 2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00 cutoff. Crypto and benchmark observations are timestamped 2026-10-13T20:00:00Z. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 35.80 points, at the 25.4 percentile across 248 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.37 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 35.80 points, at the 25.4 percentile across 248 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.37 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 55.4, "vix": 15.270000457763672, "vix9d": 11.989999771118164, "vix3m": 17.959999084472656, "ivSpread": 40.12999954223633, "ivRatio": 3.6280287059083336, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 45.29069437725956, "spxRealisedVol20": 9.48724448475329, "rvSpread": 35.80344989250627, "rvRatio": 4.77385129581567, "rvSpreadPercentile": 25.403225806451612, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 248, "rvRatioPercentile": 34.67741935483871, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 248, "returnCorrelation30": 0.5707935468120343, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.3685613335923395, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1; Derivasys persisted 30-calendar-day fixed-tenor ATM IV near the US close and Yahoo Finance SPX/VIX-family completed-session observations. All displayed metric observation timestamps: 2026-10-13T20:00:00Z; ingestedAt: 2026-10-13T22:30:51.625618Z; freshness evaluatedAt: 2026-10-14T16:30:00Z, fresh, ageSeconds 73800. Volatility levels and differences use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252). Alignment tolerance: 600 seconds. IV spread/ratio percentiles are null, with sampleCount 30. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only." }, "materialCandidates": [ { "id": "sol-largestBf25Move", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 1.29, "current": 4.57, "previous": 3.28, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 97.1, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.8957, "score": 42.8985, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 97.1, "observations": 34, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 34, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-29", "endDate": "2026-10-13", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:bc50b6e19b4befaac563a1662d4ffdbe9fa68c6fdc017b3cbef6e7edd963026a" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 2.58, "magnitudeScore": 5.16, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 37.7385, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 42.8985, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 97.1, "tailDistance": 47.1, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 42.8985 }, "story": "SOL 1W BF25 moved higher by 1.29", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 42.8985, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-largestRr25Move", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "2W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -2.16, "current": -1.4, "previous": 0.76, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 90.5, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.3106, "score": 35.173, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 90.5, "observations": 21, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 21, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-13", "endDate": "2026-10-13", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:79360543b092ee1821ce6b7b2e6d23a2a5ed06c899ed61f0f95866108d1c0b94" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 2.16, "magnitudeScore": 4.32, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 30.853, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 35.173, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 90.5, "tailDistance": 40.5, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 35.173 }, "story": "SOL 2W RR25 moved lower by 2.16", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 35.173, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-spot-24h", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -3.45, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 79.7, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.831, "score": 25.425, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:ff2d0a2e4984388950599fc7618d1396ff85e9c9b6c520674d82c00d345e49a0\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":7.16,\"current\":54.04,\"percentChange\":15.27,\"previous\":46.88},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.44,\"current\":54.01,\"percentChange\":4.73,\"previous\":51.57},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -0.03 to -1.09 volatility points (-1.06 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-14\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":658124,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":648112,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.18,\"current\":56.22,\"percentChange\":4.03,\"previous\":54.04},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.12,\"current\":55.13,\"percentChange\":2.07,\"previous\":54.01},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "737afdc79bfc1f6d16800f84f88bcda8daf3d47c92cad5f6cd34f62bde45a8bd", "materialRegimeChange": false } ] } }