{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:33:30+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 648112, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 638038, "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "SOL", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical SOL index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical SOL-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -1.06, "rv24hPercent": 77.77, "rv7dPercent": 54.06, "rv30dPercent": 56.75, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "SOL", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "9069afd1cfe562518a4e9d9f913a792bb4960f7cb982c8aec2985016b73f9447", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-14T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 75.51, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-15T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 75.42, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 75.55, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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] }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Solana options: 1w ATM IV rises 7.16 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "Solana 1W RR25 fell 1.80 volatility points from +0.48 to -1.32 volatility points between the same cutoffs, moving from a call-side to a put-side tilt. RR25 measures 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV. Solana 2W BF25 declined 0.32 volatility points from 3.54 to 3.22 volatility points. BF25 measures average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM IV. Comparable long-dated fixed-tenor observations are unavailable.", "evidenceIds": [ "largest-standard-tenor", "front-atm", "realised-vol", "spot-index-24h", "back-atm", "rr25", "bf25", "sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change" ], "newsSummary": "In developing single-source reporting, [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/news/blockchains/anza-sets-oct-21-for-solana-s-alpenglow-mainnet-upgrade) reports an October 21 schedule for Solana's Alpenglow mainnet upgrade, targeting 150-millisecond finality and requiring software changes before the switch. The scheduled upgrade remained ahead of this report's cutoff. [Decrypt](https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol) reports continued SOL buying by DeFi Development, which holds about 2.59 million SOL, alongside shrinking weekly purchases. These reports provide context without establishing a cause of the options changes.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 54.04%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 54.06%; 24-hour realised volatility was 77.77% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.75%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +4.96 volatility points to 54.11% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.35 volatility points to 0.45% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 3.56% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +7.16 volatility points at 1W, to 54.04%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 7.16 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -1.06% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -10.80% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "sol-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.69 to -0.03 volatility points (-4.72 points). 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According to Derivasys, this was Solana's largest supported standard-tenor ATM IV change in the daily comparison, marking a rise in volatility implied by options near the underlying price.", "eventsSelected": 2 }, "items": [ { "id": "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Anza Sets Oct. 21 for Solana’s Alpenglow Mainnet Upgrade", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/blockchains/anza-sets-oct-21-for-solana-s-alpenglow-mainnet-upgrade", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T15:06:22+00:00", "summary": "The Defiant reports an October 21 upgrade schedule targeting 150-millisecond finality, with software changes required before the switch.", "matchedTerms": [ "Alpenglow Mainnet Upgrade The", "Anza Sets Oct", "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "protocol", "protocol_upgrade" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 37, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 37.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.0874, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0874, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-2747d7fd67b9" }, { "id": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "sourceId": "decrypt", "publisher": "Decrypt", "title": "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi Development Keeps Buying SOL as CHAD Preferred Stock Hits Record", "url": "https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol", "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T19:07:30+00:00", "summary": "Decrypt reports approximately 2.59 million SOL held by DeFi Development, with shrinking weekly purchases.", "matchedTerms": [ "CHAD Preferred Stock Hits", "Development Keeps Buying SOL", "Record The Nasdaq-listed", "SOL", "Solana", "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 36, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 36.1, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.454, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6025, "catalystScore": 0.087, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.087, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-603075829b66" } ], "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-2747d7fd67b9", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Anza Sets Oct. 21 for Solana’s Alpenglow Mainnet Upgrade", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/blockchains/anza-sets-oct-21-for-solana-s-alpenglow-mainnet-upgrade", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T15:06:22+00:00", "summary": "The Defiant reports an October 21 upgrade schedule targeting 150-millisecond finality, with software changes required before the switch.", "matchedTerms": [ "Alpenglow Mainnet Upgrade The", "Anza Sets Oct", "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "protocol", "protocol_upgrade" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 37, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 37.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.0874, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0874, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-2747d7fd67b9" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-603075829b66", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "sourceId": "decrypt", "publisher": "Decrypt", "title": "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi Development Keeps Buying SOL as CHAD Preferred Stock Hits Record", "url": "https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol", "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T19:07:30+00:00", "summary": "Decrypt reports approximately 2.59 million SOL held by DeFi Development, with shrinking weekly purchases.", "matchedTerms": [ "CHAD Preferred Stock Hits", "Development Keeps Buying SOL", "Record The Nasdaq-listed", "SOL", "Solana", "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 36, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 36.1, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.454, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6025, "catalystScore": 0.087, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.087, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-603075829b66" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market events", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-2747d7fd67b9", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Anza Sets Oct. 21 for Solana’s Alpenglow Mainnet Upgrade", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/blockchains/anza-sets-oct-21-for-solana-s-alpenglow-mainnet-upgrade", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T15:06:22+00:00", "summary": "The Defiant reports an October 21 upgrade schedule targeting 150-millisecond finality, with software changes required before the switch.", "matchedTerms": [ "Alpenglow Mainnet Upgrade The", "Anza Sets Oct", "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "protocol", "protocol_upgrade" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 37, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 37.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.0874, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0874, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-2747d7fd67b9" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-603075829b66", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "sourceId": "decrypt", "publisher": "Decrypt", "title": "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi Development Keeps Buying SOL as CHAD Preferred Stock Hits Record", "url": "https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol", "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T19:07:30+00:00", "summary": "Decrypt reports approximately 2.59 million SOL held by DeFi Development, with shrinking weekly purchases.", "matchedTerms": [ "CHAD Preferred Stock Hits", "Development Keeps Buying SOL", "Record The Nasdaq-listed", "SOL", "Solana", "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 36, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 36.1, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.454, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6025, "catalystScore": 0.087, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.087, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -1.09 USD (-1.00%) to 107.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-603075829b66" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1W ATM IV rose 7.16 volatility points to 54.04%, a notable move at the 84th percentile among 45 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 77.77% over 24 hours, 54.06% over seven days and 56.75% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 54.11%, +4.96 points from the prior snapshot. Long-dated fixed tenors were suppressed because listed expiries did not bracket them. 1W RR25 moved 1.80 volatility points toward puts to -1.32%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 fell 0.32 volatility points to 3.22%. 24-hour spot-index: -1.06%; nearest eligible forward 16OCT26: -1.00% to $107.82. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 110, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 54.04%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 54.06%; 24-hour realised volatility was 77.77% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.75%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +4.96 volatility points to 54.11% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.35 volatility points to 0.45% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 3.56% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +7.16 volatility points at 1W, to 54.04%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 7.16 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -1.06% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "SOL spot-index return was -10.80% over seven days.", "source": 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:ff9c26c8736d4488b103e1d35822a561a04f5b2159fcf02f7b273f47635cad77\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-11T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-4.01,\"current\":46.88,\"percentChange\":-7.88,\"previous\":50.89},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-1.75,\"current\":51.57,\"percentChange\":-3.28,\"previous\":53.32},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 3600, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.69 to -0.03 volatility points (-4.72 points). It crossed zero from positive to negative.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-13\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":648112,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":638038,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":7.16,\"current\":54.04,\"percentChange\":15.27,\"previous\":46.88},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.44,\"current\":54.01,\"percentChange\":4.73,\"previous\":51.57},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "0a1e82d7b95a35ad66205587c7707d7692639124985f76969e2eb4233662878c", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:37:17+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Solana options: 1w ATM IV rises 7.16 volatility points", "standfirst": "Solana 1W ATM IV moved higher by 7.16 volatility points to 54.04% versus the prior daily cutoff. According to Derivasys, this was Solana's largest supported standard-tenor ATM IV change in the daily comparison, marking a rise in volatility implied by options near the underlying price.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "headline": "Solana options: 1w ATM IV rises 7.16 volatility points", "summary": "Solana 1W ATM IV rose 7.16 volatility points to 54.04% between the October 12 and October 13 cutoffs at 16:30 UTC. Solana 1W ATM IV stood at 46.88% at the prior daily cutoff. Over the October 12–13 comparison at 16:30 UTC, Solana 2W ATM IV increased 5.28 volatility points to 54.29%, while Solana 1M ATM IV rose 2.44 volatility points to 54.01%. The supported front curve ended almost flat. Solana seven-day realised volatility stood at 54.06%, close to its 1W ATM IV level.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "In developing single-source reporting, [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/news/blockchains/anza-sets-oct-21-for-solana-s-alpenglow-mainnet-upgrade) reports an October 21 schedule for Solana's Alpenglow mainnet upgrade, targeting 150-millisecond finality and requiring software changes before the switch. The scheduled upgrade remained ahead of this report's cutoff. [Decrypt](https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol) reports continued SOL buying by DeFi Development, which holds about 2.59 million SOL, alongside shrinking weekly purchases. These reports provide context without establishing a cause of the options changes.", "events": [ { "eventId": "127a0291-ff2e-47ac-850a-4049c498ccb2", "title": "Anza Sets Oct. 21 for Solana’s Alpenglow Mainnet Upgrade", "publisher": "The Defiant", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/blockchains/anza-sets-oct-21-for-solana-s-alpenglow-mainnet-upgrade", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T15:06:22+00:00" }, { "eventId": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "title": "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi Development Keeps Buying SOL as CHAD Preferred Stock Hits Record", "publisher": "Decrypt", "url": "https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol", "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T19:07:30+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Solana options: 1w ATM IV rises 7.16 volatility points", "standfirst": "Solana 1W ATM IV moved higher by 7.16 volatility points to 54.04% versus the prior daily cutoff. According to Derivasys, this was Solana's largest supported standard-tenor ATM IV change in the daily comparison, marking a rise in volatility implied by options near the underlying price.", "leadChart": { "asset": "SOL", "metric": "atmIv", "eventType": "atmIv", "label": "1W", "current": 54.04, "previous": 46.88, "change": 7.16, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "sol-largestAtmMove", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "eventRef": "events[type=atmIv,label=1W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv" }, "event": { "type": "atmIv", "title": "Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move", "label": "1W", "value": 7.16 } }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "SOL", "sessionDate": "2026-10-12", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-12T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session retrieved as_of 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00. Crypto and benchmark observations are both timestamped 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z; evaluated freshness is fresh, age 73800 seconds. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with 29 prior observations. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 37.02 points, at the 26.7 percentile across 247 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.36 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 37.02 points, at the 26.7 percentile across 247 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.36 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 50.66, "vix": 15.210000038146973, "vix9d": 11.680000305175781, "vix3m": 17.93000030517578, "ivSpread": 35.449999961853024, "ivRatio": 3.33070347619617, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 46.72933861966686, "spxRealisedVol20": 9.705175890785151, "rvSpread": 37.02416272888171, "rvRatio": 4.814888379718633, "rvSpreadPercentile": 26.720647773279353, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 247, "rvRatioPercentile": 33.60323886639676, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 247, "returnCorrelation30": 0.5669083025761001, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.3603492348742502, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1; persisted Derivasys REST API through market_context MCP. Crypto IV: 30 calendar-day fixed tenor near US close, volatility_points, ACT/365. VIX-family: completed US cash-session closes, volatility_points, Yahoo Finance sources ^VIX/^VIX9D/^VIX3M. Crypto RV: 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns, sqrt(365); SPX RV: 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns, sqrt(252), ^GSPC. RV spreads and ratios preserve these different annualisation clocks. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only. Alignment tolerance 600 seconds; cross-asset ingestion 2026-10-12T22:30:56.287428Z; quality valid." }, "materialCandidates": [ { "id": "sol-largestAtmMove", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "atmIv", "metricLabel": "ATM IV", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 7.16, "current": 54.04, "previous": 46.88, "relativeChangePercent": 15.273, "historicalPercentile": 84.4, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.011, "score": 40.015, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 84.4, "observations": 45, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 45, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-28", "endDate": "2026-10-12", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T23:59:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:9292c1550d44320ceb92332a9624ef9f3027f3309eaf79401b7570ef6987d647" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 7.16, "magnitudeScore": 14.32, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 25.695, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 40.015, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 84.4, "tailDistance": 34.4, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 40.015 }, "story": "SOL 1W ATM IV moved higher by 7.16", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 40.015, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-largestRr25Move", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -1.8, "current": -1.32, "previous": 0.48, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 60.0, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.2533, "score": 10.8665, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 60.0, "observations": 30, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 30, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-12", "endDate": "2026-10-12", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-12T23:59:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T23:59:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:cfdb7af3d4374a0948e5e9fbb9224525d12c42e730bd184b2f4ae0831122c06b" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.8, "magnitudeScore": 3.6, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 7.2665, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 10.8665, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 60.0, "tailDistance": 10.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; 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validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 7.7 }, "story": "SOL 23OCT26 smile rotation moved lower by 3.85", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 7.7, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "sol-largestBf25Move", "asset": "SOL", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "2W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -0.32, "current": 3.22, "previous": 3.54, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 46.7, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.0828, "score": 1.28, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 46.7, "observations": 45, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 45, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-28", "endDate": "2026-10-12", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T23:59:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:68ae6c23179e0202ce0876a328ebd9f7b7ab928c3dba53bc17ba0b4e779d4f47" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.64, "magnitudeScore": 1.28, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.64, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.28, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 46.7, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; 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extrapolated values are suppressed." }, { "tenor": "6M", "status": "unavailable", "availableMetrics": [], "sourceAvailability": "unavailable", "reason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed." }, { "tenor": "9M", "status": "unavailable", "availableMetrics": [], "sourceAvailability": "unavailable", "reason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed." }, { "tenor": "1Y", "status": "unavailable", "availableMetrics": [], "sourceAvailability": "unavailable", "reason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed." } ], "realisedVolatilityCoverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "realisedVolatilityReason": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null, "realisedVolatilityCoveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null } ] }, "provenance": { "calculationSource": "existing verified report metrics and frozen material candidates", "snapshots": [ { "asset": "SOL", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 648112, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 638038, "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "currentSnapshotId": null, "previousSnapshotId": null } ], "methodologySource": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical SOL index databases", "crossAssetAnalysisSchemaVersion": null }, "spotReturns": { "SOL": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "SOL", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "9069afd1cfe562518a4e9d9f913a792bb4960f7cb982c8aec2985016b73f9447", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-14T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 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"unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-19T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 81.85, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-20T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 86.93, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-21T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 91.44, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-22T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 93.9, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-23T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 95.38, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:ff9c26c8736d4488b103e1d35822a561a04f5b2159fcf02f7b273f47635cad77\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-11T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-4.01,\"current\":46.88,\"percentChange\":-7.88,\"previous\":50.89},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-1.75,\"current\":51.57,\"percentChange\":-3.28,\"previous\":53.32},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 3600, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "SOL 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.69 to -0.03 volatility points (-4.72 points). It crossed zero from positive to negative.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"SOL\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"SOL\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-13\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":648112,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":638038,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":7.16,\"current\":54.04,\"percentChange\":15.27,\"previous\":46.88},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.44,\"current\":54.01,\"percentChange\":4.73,\"previous\":51.57},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "0a1e82d7b95a35ad66205587c7707d7692639124985f76969e2eb4233662878c", "materialRegimeChange": false } ] } }