{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-09-18", "generatedAt": "2026-09-18T16:31:13+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 406766, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 396689, "timestamp": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "SOL", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts." }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical SOL index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded", "fitQuality": { "currentObjective": 0.07944312, "previousObjective": 0.01034222, "currentLiveError": 63.97154508, "previousLiveError": 12.06902682 }, "coverage": { "currentListedExpiries": 6, "previousListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "addedExpiries": [ "20SEP26" ], "removedExpiries": [ "18SEP26" ], "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "6M", "9M", "1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "Solana’s one-month convexity reset leads the options read", "executiveSummary": "Solana’s standout move was a sharp reduction in one-month BF25, indicating lower priced convexity away from the centre of the options surface. That reset sat alongside a strongly positive two-week RR25, where call-side volatility remained richer than put-side volatility.", "evidenceIds": [ "bf25", "rr25" ], "newsSummary": "CoinDesk reported faster Solana blocks while transaction capacity remained unchanged.", "marketContextSummary": "The Solana technical report is relevant context, but the available evidence does not establish that it caused the one-month convexity repricing.", "marketContext": [ { "title": "Solana technical update", "explanation": "The reported block-speed change occurred within the window, but no measured Solana options reaction links it directly to the one-month BF25 decline.", "relationship": "no-clear-link", "confidence": "low", "surfaceEvidenceIds": [ "bf25" ], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9" ] } ], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.47 volatility points to 51.78% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.60 volatility points to 3.91% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 decreased, averaging -0.52 volatility points to 4.12% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.13 volatility points at 1M, to 52.69%.", "tenor": "1M", "value": -2.13 } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "GLOBAL", "MACRO", "SOL" ], "completedScopes": [ "GLOBAL", "MACRO", "SOL" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "SOL" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-18T16:30:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-17T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 6, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "2f9bf6dad0fa68dc5cc5f29a0b70cd7b28350635404aa83a547ab1788def9832" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-18T16:30:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-17T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": false, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMTQ6MzI6MjUuMDY2NzY5KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjRkZjc4NjNhLTdiNzctNGQ2Ni1iODg4LTM4N2JhNjIwYTQxYiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "61d1782e8373c71c7aa921afb5797e9b4b6e87142ea6d871e58bc34a43a55937" } ] }, { "arguments": { "assets": null, "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-18T16:30:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-17T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMTQ6MzI6MjUuMDY2NzY5KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjRkZjc4NjNhLTdiNzctNGQ2Ni1iODg4LTM4N2JhNjIwYTQxYiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "61d1782e8373c71c7aa921afb5797e9b4b6e87142ea6d871e58bc34a43a55937" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMTQ6MzI6MjUuMDY2NzY5KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjRkZjc4NjNhLTdiNzctNGQ2Ni1iODg4LTM4N2JhNjIwYTQxYiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMTI6MTY6MDUuMDk0ODA3KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjA1ZjlkMDljLTcyOWItNGI0Ny05OGRlLWNiYTM5YTM3NDU4MSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "45010859031d90d19df08e9b17341368ad1805c56c45f66146ac82c42f2daf72" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMTI6MTY6MDUuMDk0ODA3KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjA1ZjlkMDljLTcyOWItNGI0Ny05OGRlLWNiYTM5YTM3NDU4MSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMTA6Mzk6MTQuNTM5NzE3KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjkwMDkwNGRiLWJmZDEtNGVjNy05MjMwLWVkYzZlNDBmYzc3OSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "6f03a833dca750c7cf9110a088e29f94894c575306e3f24e0799caee39c69cdd" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMTA6Mzk6MTQuNTM5NzE3KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjkwMDkwNGRiLWJmZDEtNGVjNy05MjMwLWVkYzZlNDBmYzc3OSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMDg6MjE6MTQuOTA3NzIyKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjQ0YmIwZmQwLWU0ZDgtNDc5OS04NzY1LTUxMTBjZjdhOWI2MiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "5486fea067f74b5fea643c9b76913ab5ecff1db0ae4fe3c6534cc9033bf969fe" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMDg6MjE6MTQuOTA3NzIyKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjQ0YmIwZmQwLWU0ZDgtNDc5OS04NzY1LTUxMTBjZjdhOWI2MiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMDU6NDU6MDEuNjM1MTM3KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6ImU5NGVlNWRiLTUxNTktNGEyOC04MGQ0LWMzZWIzMTI0YTZmYSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "f9d81ff910e50d01b75695aecda22782928652876b8b40ce5de575bd0b9c9584" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMDU6NDU6MDEuNjM1MTM3KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6ImU5NGVlNWRiLTUxNTktNGEyOC04MGQ0LWMzZWIzMTI0YTZmYSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMDE6MDg6NDIuNDM1MDUyKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjQ5N2I3M2I1LWRhOTQtNGIwZS05YjMxLTAyZDg3ZDc4MWRmZSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "81a2039aefd89f85aed04846ad533c3eacdfc9b5bd48f8b4f4c3baabe5b39096" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMThUMDE6MDg6NDIuNDM1MDUyKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjQ5N2I3M2I1LWRhOTQtNGIwZS05YjMxLTAyZDg3ZDc4MWRmZSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMTdUMjE6NDg6NTUuNDA3MzQyKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6ImE5ZDU0NjkwLTM0MjEtNGFhNi1iMWNhLThhZGE5ZTA2ZGI4OSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "13395064d19111072e9faebd0a22720c5cc6821db7376bef8da4c542a0e49cb7" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMTdUMjE6NDg6NTUuNDA3MzQyKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6ImE5ZDU0NjkwLTM0MjEtNGFhNi1iMWNhLThhZGE5ZTA2ZGI4OSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMTdUMTk6MjA6MzEuNjI1ODgxKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjE5NjNjZjg2LWY2NzUtNGJhZi1hMGViLTY0ZjViZjcyZDRlYyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "21440f11b009930f0c6d4f43fe006c78fa69370ca817aa20dab80d16628b48bb" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMTdUMTk6MjA6MzEuNjI1ODgxKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjE5NjNjZjg2LWY2NzUtNGJhZi1hMGViLTY0ZjViZjcyZDRlYyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMTdUMTY6NTg6MDcuMDIyNTc2KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjEyYjkxMWM4LTdjMWItNGEzNC1iMDQ1LTljZWJiYjQ5NTcyYSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "0f18b5d80d25a0c22b9e4f1e933b0606dbc51b63f839b75b61bf268cb9ad4cf3" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMTdUMTY6NTg6MDcuMDIyNTc2KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6IjJiNjY0NmVkNmQ2OTM0ZTYiLCJpZCI6IjEyYjkxMWM4LTdjMWItNGEzNC1iMDQ1LTljZWJiYjQ5NTcyYSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 13, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "e3211fa71a0f409702faf229ee4cc2063ed56881268cb79bf6287f6645cf09da" } ] } ], "upstreamIngestionHealth": "not-exposed" }, "generatedAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 2, "macroQueries": 11, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 2, "publishersRepresented": 2, "discoveryEventsScanned": 463, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 2, "feedEntriesScanned": 9, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 9, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 2, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 1, "storiesSelected": 1, "selectedPublishers": 1, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "candidateAudit": [ { "eventId": "444acc77-3231-4475-b377-8c9abd56fd25", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "6136ef06-64a4-464e-bd00-e11c0dacd76e", "selected": false, "eligible": true, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": true, "decision": "editorial-selection" }, { "eventId": "55d08327-4b75-484b-b050-f54bb568752d", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "b903cc5e-24e9-4c2b-b2e1-265a0ee08430", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "0bdfc09c-13bb-4030-a40c-7b31fd38085e", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "c0d914f9-8b87-4e9a-95a6-6f8d1bb3e7b5", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "selected": true, "eligible": true, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": true, "decision": "selected" }, { "eventId": "ee231855-2f92-4147-998e-50f98d20d7d4", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": false, "reportRelevant": true, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "f35a571c-68e3-4ae1-b1c2-6cf2ab4d29b6", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "19decf6f-b4e0-4dc0-8739-6cd73c0e0018", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" } ], "planRationale": "CoinDesk's in-window report is explicitly Solana-relevant and passes the media reliability threshold, but it is single-source reporting without measured SOL reactions. The older official changelog was retained as a rejected candidate because its linked source predates the collection window.", "eventsSelected": 1 }, "items": [ { "id": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Solana speeds up blocks by 17%, but transaction capacity stays the same", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/09/18/solana-speeds-up-blocks-by-17-but-transaction-capacity-stays-the-same", "publishedAt": "2026-09-18T06:16:57+00:00", "summary": "Solana speeds up blocks by 17%, but transaction capacity stays the same.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD", "ATM IV 1M: down 2.13 points to 52.69%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6facae77d17f" } ], "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6facae77d17f", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD", "ATM IV 1M: down 2.13 points to 52.69%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Solana speeds up blocks by 17%, but transaction capacity stays the same", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/09/18/solana-speeds-up-blocks-by-17-but-transaction-capacity-stays-the-same", "publishedAt": "2026-09-18T06:16:57+00:00", "summary": "Solana speeds up blocks by 17%, but transaction capacity stays the same.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD", "ATM IV 1M: down 2.13 points to 52.69%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6facae77d17f" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market event", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6facae77d17f", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD", "ATM IV 1M: down 2.13 points to 52.69%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Solana speeds up blocks by 17%, but transaction capacity stays the same", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/09/18/solana-speeds-up-blocks-by-17-but-transaction-capacity-stays-the-same", "publishedAt": "2026-09-18T06:16:57+00:00", "summary": "Solana speeds up blocks by 17%, but transaction capacity stays the same.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL", "Solana" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD", "ATM IV 1M: down 2.13 points to 52.69%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 25SEP26: +10.49 USD (+10.36%) to 111.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6facae77d17f" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1M ATM IV fell 2.13 volatility points to 52.69%, a notable move at the 71st percentile among 21 comparable historical observations. Front-end ATM IV averaged 51.78%, -0.47 points from the prior snapshot. Long-dated fixed tenors were suppressed because listed expiries did not bracket them. 2W RR25 moved 2.05 volatility points toward calls to 5.09%, leaving calls richer than puts. 1M BF25 fell 1.03 volatility points to 3.69%. The nearest eligible forward, 25SEP26, rose $10.49 (+10.36%) to $111.70. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 91, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.47 volatility points to 51.78% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.60 volatility points to 3.91% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 decreased, averaging -0.52 volatility points to 4.12% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.13 volatility points at 1M, to 52.69%.", "tenor": "1M", "value": -2.13 } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": -0.79, "rr25Change": 0.6, "bf25Change": -0.52, "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1M", "current": 52.69, "previous": 54.82, "change": -2.13, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 2.13, "movePercentile30d": 71.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 71.4, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 50.0, "classificationPercentile": 71.4, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 } }, "frontEndAverageAtm": { "current": 51.78, "previous": 52.25, "change": -0.47 }, "longEndAverageAtm": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "largestRr25Move": { "tenor": "2W", "current": 5.09, "previous": 3.04, "change": 2.05, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 2.05, "movePercentile30d": 52.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 52.4, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 100.0, "classificationPercentile": 52.4, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "direction": "toward calls", "currentSign": "call-rich" }, "largestBf25Move": { "tenor": "1M", "current": 3.69, "previous": 4.72, "change": -1.03, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 1.03, "movePercentile30d": 95.2, "movePercentileFullHistory": 95.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 9.1, "classificationPercentile": 95.2, "label": "large", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 } }, "nearestEligibleForwardMove": { "label": "25SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 6.646, "current": 111.7, "previous": 101.21, "change": 10.49, "percentChange": 10.36 } }, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "targetExpiry": 1790353800100, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 50.69, "previous": 49.9, "change": 0.79, "percentChange": 1.58 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.01, "previous": 3.98, "change": 0.03, "percentChange": 0.75 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.81, "previous": 4.42, "change": -0.61, "percentChange": -13.8 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.79, "movePercentile30d": 19.0, "movePercentileFullHistory": 19.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 18.2, "classificationPercentile": 19.0, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 0.03, "movePercentile30d": 0.0, "movePercentileFullHistory": 0.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 81.8, "classificationPercentile": 0.0, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.61, "movePercentile30d": 66.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 66.7, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 31.8, "classificationPercentile": 66.7, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 } } }, { "tenor": "2W", "targetExpiry": 1790958600100, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 51.97, "previous": 52.04, "change": -0.07, "percentChange": -0.13 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.09, "previous": 3.04, "change": 2.05, "percentChange": 67.43 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.71, "previous": 4.36, "change": -0.65, "percentChange": -14.91 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.07, "movePercentile30d": 9.5, "movePercentileFullHistory": 9.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 36.4, "classificationPercentile": 9.5, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 2.05, "movePercentile30d": 52.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 52.4, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 100.0, "classificationPercentile": 52.4, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.65, "movePercentile30d": 76.2, "movePercentileFullHistory": 76.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 18.2, "classificationPercentile": 76.2, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 } } }, { "tenor": "1M", "targetExpiry": 1792341000100, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 52.69, "previous": 54.82, "change": -2.13, "percentChange": -3.89 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.13, "previous": 3.32, "change": -0.19, "percentChange": -5.72 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.69, "previous": 4.72, "change": -1.03, "percentChange": -21.82 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 2.13, "movePercentile30d": 71.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 71.4, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 50.0, "classificationPercentile": 71.4, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 0.19, "movePercentile30d": 14.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 14.3, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 68.2, "classificationPercentile": 14.3, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 1.03, "movePercentile30d": 95.2, "movePercentileFullHistory": 95.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 9.1, "classificationPercentile": 95.2, "label": "large", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 } } }, { "tenor": "3M", "targetExpiry": 1797611400100, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.03, "previous": 55.77, "change": -1.74, "percentChange": -3.12 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.4, "previous": 2.89, "change": 0.51, "percentChange": 17.65 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.28, "previous": 5.07, "change": 0.21, "percentChange": 4.14 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 1.74, "movePercentile30d": 71.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 71.4, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 63.6, "classificationPercentile": 71.4, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 0.51, "movePercentile30d": 23.8, "movePercentileFullHistory": 23.8, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 77.3, "classificationPercentile": 23.8, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.21, "movePercentile30d": 47.6, "movePercentileFullHistory": 47.6, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 68.2, "classificationPercentile": 47.6, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 21, "observationsFullHistory": 21, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 22 } } }, { "tenor": "6M", "targetExpiry": 1805473800100, "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 } } }, { "tenor": "9M", "targetExpiry": 1813336200100, "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 } } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "targetExpiry": 1821285000100, "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 } } } ], "listedExpiries": [ { "label": "19SEP26", "expiry": 1789804800000, "tauYears": 0.00176942, "daysToExpiry": 0.646, "expiryClassification": "ultra-short", "rankingEligible": false, "forward": { "current": 111.73, "previous": 101.14, "change": 10.59, "percentChange": 10.47 }, "atmIv": { "current": 60.69, "previous": 52.74, "change": 7.95, "percentChange": 15.07 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.21, "previous": 0.99, "change": 3.22, "percentChange": 325.25 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.19, "previous": 5.15, "change": -2.96, "percentChange": -57.48 }, "svi": { "a": { "current": -0.0126, "previous": -0.0415, "change": 0.0289, "percentChange": 69.69 }, "b": { "current": 0.0449, "previous": 0.1307, "change": -0.0858, "percentChange": -65.65 }, "rho": { "current": 0.1333, "previous": 0.0116, "change": 0.1217, "percentChange": 1053.77 }, "m": { "current": 0.0233, "previous": 0.0022, "change": 0.021, "percentChange": 942.1 }, "sigma": { "current": 0.297, "previous": 0.3272, "change": -0.0303, "percentChange": -9.25 } }, "smile": { "logMoneyness": [ -0.3, -0.285, -0.27, -0.255, -0.24, -0.225, -0.21, -0.195, -0.18, -0.165, -0.15, -0.135, -0.12, -0.105, -0.09, -0.075, -0.06, -0.045, -0.03, -0.015, 0.0, 0.015, 0.03, 0.045, 0.06, 0.075, 0.09, 0.105, 0.12, 0.135, 0.15, 0.165, 0.18, 0.195, 0.21, 0.225, 0.24, 0.255, 0.27, 0.285, 0.3 ], "current": [ 171.2374, 164.493, 157.6637, 150.7548, 143.7738, 136.7309, 129.6403, 122.521, 115.3982, 108.3056, 101.2882, 94.4052, 87.7352, 81.3819, 75.4801, 70.2011, 65.7536, 62.373, 60.2913, 59.6898, 60.6472, 63.1158, 66.9399, 71.9041, 77.7817, 84.3653, 91.4805, 98.9862, 106.7709, 114.7472, 122.8469, 131.0164, 139.2138, 147.4063, 155.5681, 163.6792, 171.7239, 179.6904, 187.5697, 195.3552, 203.042 ], "previous": [ 189.8228, 182.1372, 174.3556, 166.4822, 158.5233, 150.4873, 142.3856, 134.2334, 126.0506, 117.8634, 109.7064, 101.6255, 93.6815, 85.9563, 78.5602, 71.6417, 65.3987, 60.0857, 56.0061, 53.4732, 52.7295, 53.8569, 56.74, 61.1173, 66.6737, 73.1139, 80.1947, 87.7281, 95.5732, 103.6253, 111.8065, 120.0584, 128.3369, 136.6086, 144.8479, 153.0355, 161.1563, 169.1992, 177.1559, 185.0201, 192.7874 ], "change": [ -18.5854, -17.6442, -16.6919, -15.7274, -14.7495, -13.7564, -12.7453, -11.7124, -10.6524, -9.5578, -8.4182, -7.2203, -5.9463, -4.5744, -3.0801, -1.4406, 0.3549, 2.2873, 4.2852, 6.2166, 7.9177, 9.2589, 10.1999, 10.7868, 11.108, 11.2514, 11.2858, 11.2581, 11.1977, 11.1219, 11.0404, 10.958, 10.8769, 10.7977, 10.7202, 10.6437, 10.5676, 10.4912, 10.4138, 10.3351, 10.2546 ], "classification": [ "rotation towards calls", "wing flattening" ], "parallelShift": 3.513, "rotation": 19.459, "wingChange": -6.607, "rmsChange": 10.725 } }, { "label": "25SEP26", "expiry": 1790323200000, "tauYears": 0.01820778, "daysToExpiry": 6.646, "expiryClassification": "standard", "rankingEligible": true, "forward": { "current": 111.7, "previous": 101.21, "change": 10.49, "percentChange": 10.36 }, "atmIv": { "current": 50.55, "previous": 49.82, "change": 0.73, "percentChange": 1.47 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.88, "previous": 4.06, "change": -0.18, "percentChange": -4.43 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.82, "previous": 4.4, "change": -0.58, "percentChange": -13.18 }, "svi": { "a": { "current": -0.0675, "previous": -0.0597, "change": -0.0078, "percentChange": -12.98 }, "b": { "current": 0.1543, "previous": 0.1581, "change": -0.0038, "percentChange": -2.4 }, "rho": { "current": -0.1594, "previous": -0.1623, "change": 0.0029, "percentChange": 1.79 }, "m": { "current": -0.0975, "previous": -0.0883, "change": -0.0093, "percentChange": -10.49 }, "sigma": { "current": 0.4727, "previous": 0.4154, "change": 0.0574, "percentChange": 13.81 } }, "smile": { "logMoneyness": [ -0.3, -0.285, -0.27, -0.255, -0.24, -0.225, -0.21, -0.195, -0.18, -0.165, -0.15, -0.135, -0.12, -0.105, -0.09, -0.075, -0.06, -0.045, -0.03, -0.015, 0.0, 0.015, 0.03, 0.045, 0.06, 0.075, 0.09, 0.105, 0.12, 0.135, 0.15, 0.165, 0.18, 0.195, 0.21, 0.225, 0.24, 0.255, 0.27, 0.285, 0.3 ], "current": [ 96.3234, 92.686, 89.082, 85.5216, 82.0168, 78.5809, 75.2295, 71.9801, 68.8526, 65.8695, 63.0559, 60.4392, 58.0492, 55.9171, 54.0745, 52.5519, 51.3766, 50.5704, 50.1475, 50.1131, 50.4621, 51.1803, 52.2452, 53.6285, 55.298, 57.2203, 59.3625, 61.6932, 64.1836, 66.8077, 69.5424, 72.3677, 75.266, 78.2224, 81.2239, 84.2595, 87.3199, 90.397, 93.4839, 96.575, 99.6653 ], "previous": [ 96.374, 92.7605, 89.1697, 85.612, 82.0992, 78.6449, 75.265, 71.9773, 68.8026, 65.7642, 62.8883, 60.2039, 57.7425, 55.5375, 53.6228, 52.0316, 50.7935, 49.9327, 49.465, 49.3965, 49.7221, 50.4264, 51.4852, 52.8679, 54.5398, 56.4653, 58.6092, 60.9383, 63.4223, 66.0342, 68.7502, 71.5498, 74.415, 77.3309, 80.2845, 83.265, 86.2632, 89.2713, 92.2829, 95.2925, 98.2955 ], "change": [ -0.0506, -0.0745, -0.0877, -0.0904, -0.0824, -0.064, -0.0355, 0.0028, 0.05, 0.1053, 0.1676, 0.2353, 0.3067, 0.3796, 0.4517, 0.5203, 0.5831, 0.6377, 0.6825, 0.7166, 0.74, 0.7539, 0.76, 0.7606, 0.7582, 0.755, 0.7533, 0.7549, 0.7613, 0.7735, 0.7922, 0.8179, 0.851, 0.8915, 0.9394, 0.9945, 1.0567, 1.1257, 1.201, 1.2825, 1.3698 ], "classification": [ "rotation towards calls" ], "parallelShift": 0.567, "rotation": 0.625, "wingChange": -0.26, "rmsChange": 0.704 } }, { "label": "2OCT26", "expiry": 1790928000000, "tauYears": 0.03738586, "daysToExpiry": 13.646, "expiryClassification": "standard", "rankingEligible": true, "forward": { "current": 111.79, "previous": 101.24, "change": 10.55, "percentChange": 10.42 }, "atmIv": { "current": 51.93, "previous": 52.15, "change": -0.22, "percentChange": -0.42 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.18, "previous": 2.99, "change": 2.19, "percentChange": 73.24 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.72, "previous": 4.37, "change": -0.65, "percentChange": -14.87 }, "svi": { "a": { "current": -0.0772, "previous": -0.0641, "change": -0.0131, "percentChange": -20.39 }, "b": { "current": 0.1757, "previous": 0.1641, "change": 0.0116, "percentChange": 7.07 }, "rho": { "current": -0.261, "previous": -0.1198, "change": -0.1411, "percentChange": -117.77 }, "m": { "current": -0.1811, "previous": -0.0742, "change": -0.1069, "percentChange": -144.15 }, "sigma": { "current": 0.5126, "previous": 0.4599, "change": 0.0526, "percentChange": 11.45 } }, "smile": { "logMoneyness": [ -0.3, -0.285, -0.27, -0.255, -0.24, -0.225, -0.21, -0.195, -0.18, -0.165, -0.15, -0.135, -0.12, -0.105, -0.09, -0.075, -0.06, -0.045, -0.03, -0.015, 0.0, 0.015, 0.03, 0.045, 0.06, 0.075, 0.09, 0.105, 0.12, 0.135, 0.15, 0.165, 0.18, 0.195, 0.21, 0.225, 0.24, 0.255, 0.27, 0.285, 0.3 ], "current": [ 74.4219, 72.1449, 69.9325, 67.7936, 65.7373, 63.7734, 61.912, 60.1638, 58.5395, 57.05, 55.7057, 54.5167, 53.492, 52.6395, 51.9655, 51.4742, 51.1679, 51.0463, 51.107, 51.3452, 51.7543, 52.3256, 53.0495, 53.9151, 54.9111, 56.026, 57.2483, 58.5668, 59.9709, 61.4507, 62.9967, 64.6004, 66.254, 67.9502, 69.6829, 71.446, 73.2346, 75.044, 76.8701, 78.7093, 80.5583 ], "previous": [ 77.9884, 75.7994, 73.6474, 71.5396, 69.4839, 67.4891, 65.5646, 63.7205, 61.9676, 60.3174, 58.7817, 57.3726, 56.1019, 54.9813, 54.0217, 53.2327, 52.6222, 52.1963, 51.9586, 51.9103, 52.0497, 52.3729, 52.8735, 53.543, 54.3713, 55.3474, 56.4593, 57.6948, 59.0416, 60.4878, 62.0221, 63.6336, 65.3124, 67.0493, 68.8357, 70.6643, 72.528, 74.4207, 76.337, 78.272, 80.2214 ], "change": [ -3.5665, -3.6545, -3.7149, -3.746, -3.7466, -3.7157, -3.6526, -3.5567, -3.4281, -3.2674, -3.076, -2.8559, -2.6099, -2.3418, -2.0562, -1.7585, -1.4543, -1.15, -0.8516, -0.5651, -0.2954, -0.0473, 0.176, 0.3721, 0.5398, 0.6786, 0.789, 0.872, 0.9293, 0.9629, 0.9746, 0.9668, 0.9416, 0.9009, 0.8472, 0.7817, 0.7066, 0.6233, 0.5331, 0.4373, 0.3369 ], "classification": [ "rotation towards calls", "wing flattening" ], "parallelShift": -0.799, "rotation": 4.051, "wingChange": -0.755, "rmsChange": 2.11 } }, { "label": "30OCT26", "expiry": 1793347200000, "tauYears": 0.11409819, "daysToExpiry": 41.646, "expiryClassification": "standard", "rankingEligible": true, "forward": { "current": 112.04, "previous": 101.43, "change": 10.61, "percentChange": 10.46 }, "atmIv": { "current": 52.86, "previous": 55.55, "change": -2.69, "percentChange": -4.84 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.66, "previous": 3.4, "change": -0.74, "percentChange": -21.76 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.7, "previous": 4.82, "change": -1.12, "percentChange": -23.24 }, "svi": { "a": { "current": -0.0848, "previous": -0.0623, "change": -0.0225, "percentChange": -36.09 }, "b": { "current": 0.1913, "previous": 0.1955, "change": -0.0043, "percentChange": -2.18 }, "rho": { "current": -0.1592, "previous": -0.1601, "change": 0.0009, "percentChange": 0.55 }, "m": { "current": -0.1272, "previous": -0.1103, "change": -0.0169, "percentChange": -15.36 }, "sigma": { "current": 0.6165, "previous": 0.5077, "change": 0.1088, "percentChange": 21.42 } }, "smile": { "logMoneyness": [ -0.3, -0.285, -0.27, -0.255, -0.24, -0.225, -0.21, -0.195, -0.18, -0.165, -0.15, -0.135, -0.12, -0.105, -0.09, -0.075, -0.06, -0.045, -0.03, -0.015, 0.0, 0.015, 0.03, 0.045, 0.06, 0.075, 0.09, 0.105, 0.12, 0.135, 0.15, 0.165, 0.18, 0.195, 0.21, 0.225, 0.24, 0.255, 0.27, 0.285, 0.3 ], "current": [ 61.3272, 60.4637, 59.6344, 58.8414, 58.0871, 57.3736, 56.7031, 56.0778, 55.4996, 54.9703, 54.4918, 54.0655, 53.6928, 53.3748, 53.1125, 52.9064, 52.7569, 52.664, 52.6277, 52.6473, 52.7223, 52.8515, 53.0338, 53.2678, 53.5518, 53.884, 54.2627, 54.6856, 55.1508, 55.6561, 56.1993, 56.7782, 57.3905, 58.0343, 58.7072, 59.4073, 60.1326, 60.8811, 61.651, 62.4405, 63.248 ], "previous": [ 65.1551, 64.1887, 63.2571, 62.3632, 61.51, 60.7003, 59.9371, 59.2233, 58.5615, 57.9544, 57.4044, 56.9137, 56.4842, 56.1174, 55.8147, 55.5769, 55.4046, 55.2979, 55.2564, 55.2797, 55.3665, 55.5156, 55.7252, 55.9933, 56.3178, 56.6962, 57.1259, 57.6042, 58.1285, 58.6958, 59.3033, 59.9483, 60.6279, 61.3397, 62.0808, 62.849, 63.6417, 64.4568, 65.2921, 66.1456, 67.0154 ], "change": [ -3.8279, -3.725, -3.6227, -3.5218, -3.4229, -3.3267, -3.234, -3.1455, -3.0619, -2.9841, -2.9126, -2.8482, -2.7914, -2.7426, -2.7022, -2.6705, -2.6477, -2.6339, -2.6287, -2.6324, -2.6442, -2.6641, -2.6914, -2.7255, -2.766, -2.8122, -2.8632, -2.9186, -2.9777, -3.0397, -3.104, -3.1701, -3.2374, -3.3054, -3.3736, -3.4417, -3.5091, -3.5757, -3.6411, -3.7051, -3.7674 ], "classification": [ "parallel shift lower" ], "parallelShift": -2.887, "rotation": -0.191, "wingChange": -0.364, "rmsChange": 3.121 } }, { "label": "25DEC26", "expiry": 1798185600000, "tauYears": 0.26752284, "daysToExpiry": 97.646, "expiryClassification": "standard", "rankingEligible": true, "forward": { "current": 112.38, "previous": 101.81, "change": 10.57, "percentChange": 10.38 }, "atmIv": { "current": 54.1, "previous": 55.78, "change": -1.68, "percentChange": -3.01 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.44, "previous": 2.86, "change": 0.58, "percentChange": 20.28 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.36, "previous": 5.1, "change": 0.26, "percentChange": 5.1 }, "svi": { "a": { "current": -0.0362, "previous": -0.0898, "change": 0.0536, "percentChange": 59.69 }, "b": { "current": 0.2164, "previous": 0.2552, "change": -0.0389, "percentChange": -15.24 }, "rho": { "current": -0.0255, "previous": -0.0116, "change": -0.0139, "percentChange": -119.28 }, "m": { "current": -0.0337, "previous": -0.0182, "change": -0.0156, "percentChange": -85.75 }, "sigma": { "current": 0.5261, "previous": 0.6794, "change": -0.1533, "percentChange": -22.56 } }, "smile": { "logMoneyness": [ -0.3, -0.285, -0.27, -0.255, -0.24, -0.225, -0.21, -0.195, -0.18, -0.165, -0.15, -0.135, -0.12, -0.105, -0.09, -0.075, -0.06, -0.045, -0.03, -0.015, 0.0, 0.015, 0.03, 0.045, 0.06, 0.075, 0.09, 0.105, 0.12, 0.135, 0.15, 0.165, 0.18, 0.195, 0.21, 0.225, 0.24, 0.255, 0.27, 0.285, 0.3 ], "current": [ 58.911, 58.4284, 57.9636, 57.5179, 57.0925, 56.6885, 56.3071, 55.9495, 55.6167, 55.3099, 55.0301, 54.7783, 54.5553, 54.362, 54.199, 54.067, 53.9664, 53.8976, 53.8608, 53.856, 53.8834, 53.9425, 54.0332, 54.155, 54.3073, 54.4895, 54.7008, 54.9403, 55.2071, 55.5001, 55.8184, 56.1608, 56.5262, 56.9133, 57.3212, 57.7485, 58.1942, 58.6571, 59.136, 59.63, 60.1379 ], "previous": [ 60.447, 59.9929, 59.5566, 59.1388, 58.7405, 58.3624, 58.0055, 57.6706, 57.3585, 57.0698, 56.8054, 56.5659, 56.352, 56.1642, 56.003, 55.8689, 55.7622, 55.6832, 55.6322, 55.6092, 55.6144, 55.6476, 55.7088, 55.7977, 55.9141, 56.0576, 56.2278, 56.4242, 56.6462, 56.8932, 57.1646, 57.4595, 57.7773, 58.1172, 58.4784, 58.8599, 59.2611, 59.6809, 60.1186, 60.5733, 61.0441 ], "change": [ -1.536, -1.5645, -1.593, -1.6209, -1.648, -1.6739, -1.6984, -1.7211, -1.7418, -1.7599, -1.7753, -1.7876, -1.7967, -1.8022, -1.804, -1.8019, -1.7958, -1.7856, -1.7714, -1.7532, -1.731, -1.7051, -1.6756, -1.6427, -1.6068, -1.5681, -1.527, -1.4839, -1.4391, -1.3931, -1.3462, -1.2987, -1.2511, -1.2039, -1.1572, -1.1114, -1.0669, -1.0238, -0.9826, -0.9433, -0.9062 ], "classification": [ "parallel shift lower" ], "parallelShift": -1.618, "rotation": 0.429, "wingChange": 0.17, "rmsChange": 1.549 } } ], "events": [ { "type": "rotation", "title": "Largest eligible smile rotation", "label": "2OCT26", "value": 4.051, "score": 4.051, "unit": "volatility points" }, { "type": "atmIv", "title": "Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move", "label": "1M", "value": -2.13, "score": 2.13, "unit": "volatility points" }, { "type": "rr25", "title": "Largest standard-tenor RR25 move", "label": "2W", "value": 2.05, "score": 2.05, "unit": "volatility points" }, { "type": "bf25", "title": "Largest standard-tenor BF25 move", "label": "1M", "value": -1.03, "score": 1.03, "unit": "volatility points" }, { "type": "sigma", "title": "Largest eligible SVI sigma move", "label": "25DEC26", "value": -0.1533, "score": 0.1533, "unit": "parameter units" }, { "type": "rho", "title": "Largest eligible SVI rho move", "label": "2OCT26", "value": -0.1411, "score": 0.1411, "unit": "parameter units" } ], "expiryEffects": [ { "label": "19SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 0.646, "metric": "Smile rotation", "value": 19.459, "unit": "volatility points", "context": "Excluded from headline rankings because the contract has fewer than the configured full days to expiry." } ], "ultraShortThresholdDays": 2.0, "greekCharacteristics": { "highestVega": { "label": "25DEC26", "expiry": 1798185600000, "value": 0.22963016, "metric": "vega", "availability": "available" }, "highestGamma": { "label": "19SEP26", "expiry": 1789804800000, "value": 0.139853168841, "metric": "gamma", "availability": "available" }, "highestThetaDecay": { "label": "19SEP26", "expiry": 1789804800000, "value": -0.88089333, "metric": "theta", "availability": "available" }, "highestVanna": { "label": "25DEC26", "expiry": 1798185600000, "value": 0.00102167, "metric": "vanna", "availability": "available" }, "highestVolga": { "label": "25DEC26", "expiry": 1798185600000, "value": -0.00830859, "metric": "volga", "availability": "available" } }, "heatmap": { "x": [ -0.3, -0.285, -0.27, -0.255, -0.24, -0.225, -0.21, -0.195, -0.18, -0.165, -0.15, -0.135, -0.12, -0.105, -0.09, -0.075, -0.06, -0.045, -0.03, -0.015, 0.0, 0.015, 0.03, 0.045, 0.06, 0.075, 0.09, 0.105, 0.12, 0.135, 0.15, 0.165, 0.18, 0.195, 0.21, 0.225, 0.24, 0.255, 0.27, 0.285, 0.3 ], "rows": [ { "label": "19SEP26", "values": [ -18.5854, -17.6442, -16.6919, -15.7274, -14.7495, -13.7564, -12.7453, -11.7124, -10.6524, -9.5578, -8.4182, -7.2203, -5.9463, -4.5744, -3.0801, -1.4406, 0.3549, 2.2873, 4.2852, 6.2166, 7.9177, 9.2589, 10.1999, 10.7868, 11.108, 11.2514, 11.2858, 11.2581, 11.1977, 11.1219, 11.0404, 10.958, 10.8769, 10.7977, 10.7202, 10.6437, 10.5676, 10.4912, 10.4138, 10.3351, 10.2546 ] }, { "label": "25SEP26", "values": [ -0.0506, -0.0745, -0.0877, -0.0904, -0.0824, -0.064, -0.0355, 0.0028, 0.05, 0.1053, 0.1676, 0.2353, 0.3067, 0.3796, 0.4517, 0.5203, 0.5831, 0.6377, 0.6825, 0.7166, 0.74, 0.7539, 0.76, 0.7606, 0.7582, 0.755, 0.7533, 0.7549, 0.7613, 0.7735, 0.7922, 0.8179, 0.851, 0.8915, 0.9394, 0.9945, 1.0567, 1.1257, 1.201, 1.2825, 1.3698 ] }, { "label": "2OCT26", "values": [ -3.5665, -3.6545, -3.7149, -3.746, -3.7466, -3.7157, -3.6526, -3.5567, -3.4281, -3.2674, -3.076, -2.8559, -2.6099, -2.3418, -2.0562, -1.7585, -1.4543, -1.15, -0.8516, -0.5651, -0.2954, -0.0473, 0.176, 0.3721, 0.5398, 0.6786, 0.789, 0.872, 0.9293, 0.9629, 0.9746, 0.9668, 0.9416, 0.9009, 0.8472, 0.7817, 0.7066, 0.6233, 0.5331, 0.4373, 0.3369 ] }, { "label": "30OCT26", "values": [ -3.8279, -3.725, -3.6227, -3.5218, -3.4229, -3.3267, -3.234, -3.1455, -3.0619, -2.9841, -2.9126, -2.8482, -2.7914, -2.7426, -2.7022, -2.6705, -2.6477, -2.6339, -2.6287, -2.6324, -2.6442, -2.6641, -2.6914, -2.7255, -2.766, -2.8122, -2.8632, -2.9186, -2.9777, -3.0397, -3.104, -3.1701, -3.2374, -3.3054, -3.3736, -3.4417, -3.5091, -3.5757, -3.6411, -3.7051, -3.7674 ] }, { "label": "25DEC26", "values": [ -1.536, -1.5645, -1.593, -1.6209, -1.648, -1.6739, -1.6984, -1.7211, -1.7418, -1.7599, -1.7753, -1.7876, -1.7967, -1.8022, -1.804, -1.8019, -1.7958, -1.7856, -1.7714, -1.7532, -1.731, -1.7051, -1.6756, -1.6427, -1.6068, -1.5681, -1.527, -1.4839, -1.4391, -1.3931, -1.3462, -1.2987, -1.2511, -1.2039, -1.1572, -1.1114, -1.0669, -1.0238, -0.9826, -0.9433, -0.9062 ] } ] }, "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Solana options reprice convexity lower as call skew persists", "standfirst": "Solana one-month BF25 fell 1.03 volatility points to 3.69%, a large convexity repricing at the 95.2 percentile of comparable history. Separately, Solana two-week RR25 rose 2.05 volatility points to 5.09%, leaving calls materially richer than puts. One-month ATM IV fell 2.13 volatility points to 52.69%, according to Derivasys data; realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-09-18", "headline": "Solana block-speed report offers market context", "summary": "CoinDesk reported that Solana sped up blocks while transaction capacity remained unchanged.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "CoinDesk reported faster Solana blocks while transaction capacity remained unchanged.", "events": [ { "eventId": "c5587fad-bf9d-4f96-b7b6-4a4ebca57cf9", "title": "Solana speeds up blocks by 17%, but transaction capacity stays the same", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/09/18/solana-speeds-up-blocks-by-17-but-transaction-capacity-stays-the-same", "publishedAt": "2026-09-18T06:16:57+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Solana options reprice convexity lower as call skew persists", "standfirst": "Solana one-month BF25 fell 1.03 volatility points to 3.69%, a large convexity repricing at the 95.2 percentile of comparable history. Separately, Solana two-week RR25 rose 2.05 volatility points to 5.09%, leaving calls materially richer than puts. One-month ATM IV fell 2.13 volatility points to 52.69%, according to Derivasys data; realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable.", "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "SOL", "sessionDate": "2026-09-17", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-09-17T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common SPX/VIX session retrieved as of the report cutoff. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 38.48 points, at the 25.7 percentile across 230 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.30 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 38.48 points, at the 25.7 percentile across 230 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.30 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 51.6, "vix": 15.4399995803833, "vix9d": 13.39, "vix3m": 18.55, "ivSpread": 36.1600004196167, "ivRatio": 3.341969002742617, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 48.33067881631948, "spxRealisedVol20": 9.851683413758092, "rvSpread": 38.47899540256138, "rvRatio": 4.905829469593453, "rvSpreadPercentile": 25.652173913043477, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 230, "rvRatioPercentile": 33.47826086956522, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 230, "returnCorrelation30": 0.41233881901288066, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.2991773852121689, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "Persisted Derivasys market context; crypto RV uses sqrt(365), SPX RV uses sqrt(252)." } }