{
  "schemaVersion": 3,
  "reportDate": "2026-09-12",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T16:40:31+00:00",
  "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00",
  "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-11T16:29:00+00:00",
  "sourceSnapshots": {
    "current": {
      "id": 346342,
      "timestamp": "2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00"
    },
    "previous": {
      "id": 336263,
      "timestamp": "2026-09-11T16:29:00+00:00"
    }
  },
  "windowHours": 24.0,
  "currency": "SOL",
  "methodology": {
    "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database",
    "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart",
    "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV",
    "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV",
    "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV",
    "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.",
    "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.",
    "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.",
    "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.",
    "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts."
  },
  "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical SOL index coverage for 30d is incomplete: expected 43200 one-minute returns, found 43164 (99.9167% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded",
  "fitQuality": {
    "currentObjective": 0.01498056,
    "previousObjective": 0.05786273,
    "currentLiveError": 7.93271287,
    "previousLiveError": 25.08470804
  },
  "coverage": {
    "currentListedExpiries": 6,
    "previousListedExpiries": 6,
    "comparedListedExpiries": 5,
    "addedExpiries": [
      "14SEP26"
    ],
    "removedExpiries": [
      "12SEP26"
    ],
    "fixedTenors": [
      "1W",
      "2W",
      "1M",
      "3M"
    ],
    "suppressedFixedTenors": [
      "6M",
      "9M",
      "1Y"
    ]
  },
  "commentary": {
    "source": "codex",
    "model": "gpt-5.6-terra",
    "headline": "Solana’s options surface rotates lower with limited ATM change",
    "executiveSummary": "Solana’s surface rotation was lower, yet the front-end ATM IV average rose modestly to 51.32%. Two-week RR25 declined 0.92 points toward puts but remained call-rich at 4.49%.",
    "evidenceIds": [
      "rr25",
      "front-atm",
      "largest-standard-tenor"
    ],
    "newsSummary": "No report-relevant news context qualified for retention.",
    "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item provides a supported explanation for Solana’s surface repricing; causal confidence is low.",
    "marketContext": [],
    "newsEvidenceIds": [],
    "takeaways": [
      {
        "id": "front-atm",
        "label": "Front end",
        "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.17 volatility points to 51.32% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
      },
      {
        "id": "back-atm",
        "label": "Long end",
        "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots."
      },
      {
        "id": "rr25",
        "label": "Skew",
        "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 3.83% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "bf25",
        "label": "Convexity",
        "text": "BF25 decreased, averaging -0.12 volatility points to 3.89% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
        "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
        "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.64 volatility points at 2W, to 51.38%.",
        "tenor": "2W",
        "value": 0.64
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsEvidence": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "source": "local-news-mcp",
    "collection": {
      "schemaVersion": 1,
      "basis": "monitored-source-search",
      "status": "complete",
      "requiredScopes": [
        "MACRO",
        "SOL"
      ],
      "completedScopes": [
        "MACRO",
        "SOL"
      ],
      "missingScopes": [],
      "queries": [
        {
          "arguments": {
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            ],
            "content_kinds": [
              "catalyst",
              "reporting"
            ],
            "end": "2026-09-12T16:29:00Z",
            "limit": 50,
            "min_confidence": 0.65,
            "min_importance": 0.5,
            "start": "2026-09-11T16:29:00Z",
            "statuses": [
              "breaking",
              "developing",
              "confirmed"
            ]
          },
          "complete": true,
          "pages": [
            {
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              "status": "succeeded",
              "returnedCount": 0,
              "hasMore": false,
              "nextCursor": null,
              "resultSha256": "e88f3a0a4478e2efd693ede0f6bdfc94bd69378c3e7a3cdc2473dfc26ed1a327"
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        {
          "arguments": {
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            ],
            "content_kinds": [
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              "reporting"
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            "end": "2026-09-12T16:29:00Z",
            "limit": 50,
            "min_confidence": 0.65,
            "min_importance": 0.5,
            "start": "2026-09-05T16:29:00Z",
            "statuses": [
              "breaking",
              "developing",
              "confirmed"
            ]
          },
          "complete": true,
          "pages": [
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              "resultSha256": "47e432d62043f2e5100cbd83276aa24b9fe5d6ff34aecbfbb971397291e3be1c"
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        {
          "arguments": {
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              "reporting"
            ],
            "end": "2026-09-12T16:29:00Z",
            "event_types": [
              "macro_release",
              "central_bank_decision",
              "regulatory_action",
              "legislation"
            ],
            "limit": 50,
            "min_confidence": 0.65,
            "min_importance": 0.5,
            "start": "2026-09-05T16:29:00Z",
            "statuses": [
              "breaking",
              "developing",
              "confirmed"
            ]
          },
          "complete": true,
          "pages": [
            {
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              "status": "succeeded",
              "returnedCount": 20,
              "hasMore": false,
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              "resultSha256": "354c4cbfc35f5d3d42cbb831cdb40b3b0d424c5c02cf2deff05ca0d298a8f302"
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          ]
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      ],
      "upstreamIngestionHealth": "not-exposed"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00",
    "window": {
      "startAt": "2026-09-11T16:29:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "coverage": {
      "configuredSources": 1,
      "successfulSources": 1,
      "failedSources": 0
    },
    "provenance": {
      "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store",
      "mcpServersQueried": 1,
      "assetScopedQueries": 2,
      "macroQueries": 1,
      "canonicalEventsConsidered": 0,
      "publishersRepresented": 0,
      "discoveryEventsScanned": 53,
      "upstreamFeedCount": null,
      "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector."
    },
    "selection": {
      "feedsQueried": 1,
      "publishersQueried": 0,
      "feedEntriesScanned": 0,
      "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 0,
      "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 0,
      "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0,
      "storiesSelected": 0,
      "selectedPublishers": 0,
      "maximumStories": 3,
      "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2,
      "minimumSelectionScore": 0,
      "lockedEventSet": true,
      "qualityThresholds": {
        "minimumConfidence": 0.65,
        "minimumImportance": 0.5,
        "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58,
        "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25
      },
      "eventsSelected": 0
    },
    "items": [],
    "events": []
  },
  "newsContext": {
    "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified",
    "highest_causal_confidence": "low",
    "section_heading": "No sufficiently relevant context identified",
    "events": [],
    "coverage_status": "healthy",
    "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search",
    "summary": "No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window."
  },
  "marketRead": {
    "text": "2W RR25 moved 0.92 volatility points toward puts to 4.49%, leaving calls richer than puts. Front-end ATM IV averaged 51.32%, +0.17 points from the prior snapshot. Long-dated fixed tenors were suppressed because listed expiries did not bracket them. 2W ATM IV rose 0.64 volatility points to 51.38%. 2W BF25 fell 0.44 volatility points to 3.25%. The nearest eligible forward, 18SEP26, rose $0.16 (+0.16%) to $102.03. Realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable because the canonical minute series did not meet the completeness requirement. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.",
    "wordCount": 93,
    "source": "deterministic structured report facts",
    "evidenceFields": [
      "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove",
      "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm",
      "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove",
      "newsContext.outcome",
      "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"
    ]
  },
  "facts": [
    {
      "id": "front-atm",
      "label": "Front end",
      "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.17 volatility points to 51.32% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
    },
    {
      "id": "back-atm",
      "label": "Long end",
      "text": "Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots."
    },
    {
      "id": "rr25",
      "label": "Skew",
      "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 3.83% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "bf25",
      "label": "Convexity",
      "text": "BF25 decreased, averaging -0.12 volatility points to 3.89% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
      "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
      "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.64 volatility points at 2W, to 51.38%.",
      "tenor": "2W",
      "value": 0.64
    }
  ],
  "summaryMetrics": {
    "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison",
    "unit": "volatility points",
    "atmIvChange": 0.16,
    "rr25Change": -0.04,
    "bf25Change": -0.12,
    "largestAtmMove": {
      "tenor": "2W",
      "current": 51.38,
      "previous": 50.74,
      "change": 0.64,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.64,
        "movePercentile30d": null,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": null,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null,
        "classificationPercentile": null,
        "label": "unavailable",
        "observations30d": 15,
        "observationsFullHistory": 15,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 16
      }
    },
    "frontEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": 51.32,
      "previous": 51.15,
      "change": 0.17
    },
    "longEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": null,
      "previous": null,
      "change": null
    },
    "oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope": {
      "current": null,
      "previous": null,
      "change": null
    },
    "largestRr25Move": {
      "tenor": "2W",
      "current": 4.49,
      "previous": 5.41,
      "change": -0.92,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.92,
        "movePercentile30d": null,
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        "classificationPercentile": null,
        "label": "unavailable",
        "observations30d": 15,
        "observationsFullHistory": 15,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 16
      },
      "direction": "toward puts",
      "currentSign": "call-rich"
    },
    "largestBf25Move": {
      "tenor": "2W",
      "current": 3.25,
      "previous": 3.69,
      "change": -0.44,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.44,
        "movePercentile30d": null,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": null,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null,
        "classificationPercentile": null,
        "label": "unavailable",
        "observations30d": 15,
        "observationsFullHistory": 15,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 16
      }
    },
    "nearestEligibleForwardMove": {
      "label": "18SEP26",
      "daysToExpiry": 5.647,
      "current": 102.03,
      "previous": 101.87,
      "change": 0.16,
      "percentChange": 0.16
    }
  },
  "tenors": [
    {
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      "targetExpiry": 1789835340867,
      "availability": "available",
      "unavailableReason": null,
      "atmIv": {
        "current": 50.01,
        "previous": 50.46,
        "change": -0.45,
        "percentChange": -0.89
      },
      "rr25": {
        "current": 4.5,
        "previous": 4.05,
        "change": 0.45,
        "percentChange": 11.11
      },
      "bf25": {
        "current": 3.68,
        "previous": 3.99,
        "change": -0.31,
        "percentChange": -7.77
      },
      "historicalSignificance": {
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          "label": "unavailable",
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        },
        "rr25": {
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          "label": "unavailable",
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        },
        "bf25": {
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    {
      "tenor": "2W",
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        "change": 0.64,
        "percentChange": 1.26
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        "current": 4.49,
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        "change": -0.92,
        "percentChange": -17.01
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      "bf25": {
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      "historicalSignificance": {
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        "rr25": {
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          "classificationPercentile": null,
          "label": "unavailable",
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        "bf25": {
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          "label": "unavailable",
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    },
    {
      "tenor": "1M",
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        "percentChange": 9.45
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          "label": "unavailable",
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          "label": "unavailable",
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          "label": "unavailable",
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    },
    {
      "tenor": "3M",
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        "change": 0.14,
        "percentChange": 0.27
      },
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        "percentChange": 0.68
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        "percentChange": 5.29
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          "label": "unavailable",
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          "classificationPercentile": null,
          "label": "unavailable",
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        "bf25": {
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          "label": "unavailable",
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        }
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    },
    {
      "tenor": "6M",
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      "availability": "unavailable",
      "unavailableReason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.",
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    },
    {
      "tenor": "9M",
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      "unavailableReason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.",
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    {
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      "unavailableReason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.",
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      "bf25": {
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  ],
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "rotation",
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      "value": -1.505,
      "score": 1.505,
      "unit": "volatility points"
    },
    {
      "type": "rr25",
      "title": "Largest standard-tenor RR25 move",
      "label": "2W",
      "value": -0.92,
      "score": 0.92,
      "unit": "volatility points"
    },
    {
      "type": "atmIv",
      "title": "Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move",
      "label": "2W",
      "value": 0.64,
      "score": 0.64,
      "unit": "volatility points"
    },
    {
      "type": "bf25",
      "title": "Largest standard-tenor BF25 move",
      "label": "2W",
      "value": -0.44,
      "score": 0.44,
      "unit": "volatility points"
    },
    {
      "type": "sigma",
      "title": "Largest eligible SVI sigma move",
      "label": "18SEP26",
      "value": -0.1506,
      "score": 0.1506,
      "unit": "parameter units"
    },
    {
      "type": "rho",
      "title": "Largest eligible SVI rho move",
      "label": "25SEP26",
      "value": -0.1133,
      "score": 0.1133,
      "unit": "parameter units"
    }
  ],
  "expiryEffects": [
    {
      "label": "13SEP26",
      "daysToExpiry": 0.647,
      "metric": "Smile rotation",
      "value": -17.976,
      "unit": "volatility points",
      "context": "Excluded from headline rankings because the contract has fewer than the configured full days to expiry."
    }
  ],
  "ultraShortThresholdDays": 2.0,
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      "label": "25DEC26",
      "expiry": 1798185600000,
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      "availability": "available"
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    "highestGamma": {
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      "expiry": 1789286400000,
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      "metric": "gamma",
      "availability": "available"
    },
    "highestThetaDecay": {
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      "value": -0.466375,
      "metric": "theta",
      "availability": "available"
    },
    "highestVanna": {
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      "value": 0.00105287,
      "metric": "vanna",
      "availability": "available"
    },
    "highestVolga": {
      "label": "25DEC26",
      "expiry": 1798185600000,
      "value": -0.00794946,
      "metric": "volga",
      "availability": "available"
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    "rows": [
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      {
        "label": "18SEP26",
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      {
        "label": "25SEP26",
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      },
      {
        "label": "30OCT26",
        "values": [
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      },
      {
        "label": "25DEC26",
        "values": [
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  },
  "marketDiary": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "source": "local-news-mcp",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00",
    "window": {
      "startAt": "2026-09-11T16:29:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "headline": "Solana options soften across strikes while front-end volatility edges higher",
    "standfirst": "Solana’s options surface rotated lower across strikes, while front-end ATM IV increased only 0.17 volatility points on average to 51.32%. The largest standard-tenor ATM IV change was a 0.64-point rise in two-week ATM IV to 51.38%; realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable at the cutoff.",
    "days": [
      {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-12",
        "headline": "Solana volatility edges higher at the front",
        "summary": "A lower strike-surface rotation accompanied a small front-end ATM volatility increase without qualifying news context.",
        "macro": {
          "summary": "No qualifying macro context was retained.",
          "events": []
        },
        "crypto": {
          "summary": "No qualifying crypto context was retained.",
          "events": []
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsStatus": "no-relevant-catalyst",
  "headline": "Solana options soften across strikes while front-end volatility edges higher",
  "standfirst": "Solana’s options surface rotated lower across strikes, while front-end ATM IV increased only 0.17 volatility points on average to 51.32%. The largest standard-tenor ATM IV change was a 0.64-point rise in two-week ATM IV to 51.38%; realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable at the cutoff.",
  "crossAssetMarketContext": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "source": "market-context-mcp",
    "status": "available",
    "asset": "SOL",
    "sessionDate": "2026-09-11",
    "asOfTimestamp": "2026-09-11T20:00:00+00:00",
    "summary": "Previous session (latest completed): Persisted common SPX/VIX session and aligned SOL volatility context. The crypto-to-SPX realised-volatility ratio was 7.77, at the 78.3 percentile across 226 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.30 from 60 aligned observations.",
    "regimeInsights": [
      "The crypto-to-SPX realised-volatility ratio was 7.77, at the 78.3 percentile across 226 prior observations.",
      "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.30 from 60 aligned observations."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "cryptoAtmIv30d": 52.38,
      "vix": 15.84000015258789,
      "vix9d": 14.470000267028809,
      "vix3m": 18.600000381469727,
      "ivSpread": 36.53999984741211,
      "ivRatio": 3.3068181499633584,
      "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 69.88084875417255,
      "spxRealisedVol20": 8.992020679301438,
      "rvSpread": 60.88882807487111,
      "rvRatio": 7.771428830788829,
      "rvSpreadPercentile": 46.46017699115044,
      "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 226,
      "rvRatioPercentile": 78.31858407079646,
      "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 226,
      "returnCorrelation30": 0.24051425359297446,
      "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30,
      "returnCorrelation60": 0.2954398922716925,
      "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60
    },
    "methodology": "DerivaSys persisted market-context-v1. Crypto RV is annualised using sqrt(365); SPX RV uses sqrt(252)."
  }
}
