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\"\" DERIVASYS

Focused research note

SOL ATM volatility repricing favors shorter tenors

SOL’s ATM volatility increase was strongest at 1W and extended through 2W and 1M, while 2M barely moved and 3M declined. The existing front-end premium therefore accompanies uneven repricing across maturities. Falling spot and measured trailing volatility provide context, but butterfly premiums and longer-tenor skew show that the adjustment differs by options measure.

Derivasys Research

Report date09 Nov 2026
Current snapshot09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageSOL
Comparison snapshot08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

SOL’s shorter maturities showed the strongest increase in at-the-money implied volatility, or ATM IV. Over the crypto comparison window, 1W ATM IV changed by +4.71 vol points [1] to 61.73% [2], while 2W changed by +3.01 vol points [3] to 59.02% [4]. The increase extended to 1M, which changed by +1.08 vol points [5] to 57.18% [6]. By comparison, 2M changed by +0.15 vol points [7] to 56.42% [8], and 3M changed by -0.18 vol points [9]. The front-end premium was already present: at the previous snapshot, 1W ATM IV was 57.02% [10], above 2M at 56.27% [11]. The economic distinction is stronger near-term uncertainty pricing, with a meaningful extension into 2W and 1M rather than a uniform increase across maturities.

The shorter-tenor ATM increase accompanied a SOL spot return of -2.90% [12] over the same comparison window. Trailing realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute returns on an annualized basis, measured 62.98% [13]; forward 1W ATM IV minus trailing realized volatility was -1.25 vol points [14]. Thus, the 1W ATM increase did not put forward implied volatility above the trailing realized measure. For historical perspective, the magnitude of the 2W ATM change had a full-captured-history percentile of 85.2nd percentile [15] within 54 observations (observed sampling; 10 Sep 2026–08 Nov 2026) [15]. That comparison describes the magnitude of the 2W move, not the rarity of the entire curve configuration.

Butterfly pricing showed a different pattern from ATM IV. BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM: SOL 1W BF25 changed by -0.07 vol points [16] to 1.59 vol points [17], while 2W changed by +0.01 vol points [18] to 1.60 vol points [19], and 1M changed by +0.12 vol points [20] to 1.80 vol points [21]. These relatively small butterfly adjustments qualify the sharp 1W ATM increase: the 1W premium narrowed, but that does not establish declining absolute wing IV. Longer-tenor directional pricing also changed, with 3M RR25—call-versus-put IV asymmetry—changing by -0.63 vol points [22] from -0.26 vol points [23] to -0.89 vol points [24]. This deepened an existing 3M downside bias despite the slight 3M ATM decline. Separately, The Block reported Formation’s notification concerning a Solana securities venue. That prospective development establishes neither approval nor live usage, and offers no verified explanation for the stronger shorter-tenor ATM repricing.

Qualifications and limits

  • Forward 1W implied volatility and trailing realized volatility cover different periods; their spread does not establish value, a forecast or a trading edge.
  • Historical ranks describe selected observed samples, with missing dates and mixed clock availability limiting population coverage; they do not establish joint rarity. The 3M ATM move could not be ranked against matching history.
  • Realized volatility uses adjacent canonical minute returns with complete observed coverage and no interpolation; same-series recomputation does not independently validate the underlying prices. News publication and market observation clocks do not establish causal attribution.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
SOL · 1W61.73 %[2]4.71 vol pts[1]-2.87 vol pts[25]0.52 vol pts[26]-0.07 vol pts[16]
SOL · 2W59.02 %[4]3.01 vol pts[3]-2.00 vol pts[27]0.54 vol pts[28]0.01 vol pts[18]
SOL · 1M57.18 %[6]1.08 vol pts[5]-1.65 vol pts[29]0.05 vol pts[30]0.12 vol pts[20]
SOL · 2M56.42 %[8]0.15 vol pts[7]-1.25 vol pts[31]-0.39 vol pts[32]0.12 vol pts[33]
SOL · 3M56.01 %[34]-0.18 vol pts[9]-0.89 vol pts[24]-0.63 vol pts[22]0.08 vol pts[35]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
SOL57.02 % [10]56.10 % [36]61.73 % [2]57.18 % [6]Remained inverted
Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

AssetNative observation (UTC)1M minus 1W ATM IV
SOL2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00-4.55 vol pts [37]
SOL2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00-0.92 vol pts [38]
SOL2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00-1.79 vol pts [39]
SOL2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00-1.74 vol pts [40]

SOL ATM IV term structure

Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.

SOL ATM IV term structureCurrent and comparison are exact native endpoint observations. Tenors are equally spaced categories; connecting segments do not express elapsed-time slopes. Missing points remain gaps.1W2W1M2M3M6M9M1Y62.1960.5358.8757.2155.55Level (percent)Equally spaced categoriesCurrentComparison
Current and comparison are exact native endpoint observations. Tenors are equally spaced categories; connecting segments do not express elapsed-time slopes. Missing points remain gaps.

SOL observed 1M minus 1W ATM IV

Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.

SOL observed 1M minus 1W ATM IVObserved 1M-minus-1W ATM IV copied from existing spread-calculator receipts. Native time is proportional; missing days are not filled. Negative values indicate inversion; zero is flat.2026-11-062026-11-072026-11-082026-11-090.364-0.9555-2.275-3.595-4.9140Observed value (volatility points)Native observation (UTC)Receipt-backed curve slope
Observed 1M-minus-1W ATM IV copied from existing spread-calculator receipts. Native time is proportional; missing days are not filled. Negative values indicate inversion; zero is flat.

SOL trailing 7d variance: entering and leaving returns

Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.

SOL trailing 7d variance: entering and leaving returnsReplayed same-series squared-minute arithmetic; not independent price validation. No fill, interpolation or gap bridging. Effects add in annualized squared volatility points, not RV percentage points. Current and previous coverage: 100.0% / 100.0%. The denominator effect is explicit; Net is the sum of the three effects. Selected by largest absolute variance change within the qualified common native interval; configured asset order resolves ties.Entering+990.4Leaving-424Denominator0Net+566.4squared volatility points (annualized) (squared volatility points (annualized))
Replayed same-series squared-minute arithmetic; not independent price validation. No fill, interpolation or gap bridging. Effects add in annualized squared volatility points, not RV percentage points. Current and previous coverage: 100.0% / 100.0%. The denominator effect is explicit; Net is the sum of the three effects. Selected by largest absolute variance change within the qualified common native interval; configured asset order resolves ties.
Full original chart detail

SOL: size of daily changes in the 2-week at-the-money implied volatility

SOL: size of daily changes in the 2-week at-the-money implied volatility13.18 vol pts9.91 vol pts6.64 vol pts3.38 vol pts0.11 vol pts2026-09-11T17:31:00+00:00: 0.11 vol pts2026-09-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.12 vol pts2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00: 0.12 vol pts2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00: 0.19 vol pts2026-09-18T17:31:00+00:00: 0.24 vol pts2026-09-10T17:31:00+00:00: 0.28 vol pts2026-10-01T17:31:00+00:00: 0.39 vol pts2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00: 0.43 vol pts2026-09-19T17:31:00+00:00: 0.50 vol pts2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00: 0.55 vol pts2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00: 0.56 vol pts2026-10-06T17:31:00+00:00: 0.57 vol pts2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00: 0.61 vol pts2026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00: 0.64 vol pts2026-10-17T17:31:00+00:00: 0.67 vol pts2026-10-14T17:31:00+00:00: 0.80 vol pts2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00: 0.82 vol pts2026-10-04T17:31:00+00:00: 0.83 vol pts2026-10-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.89 vol pts2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00: 0.89 vol pts2026-10-18T17:31:00+00:00: 0.90 vol pts2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00: 1.06 vol pts2026-09-23T17:31:00+00:00: 1.10 vol pts2026-10-21T17:31:00+00:00: 1.17 vol pts2026-10-03T17:31:00+00:00: 1.23 vol pts2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00: 1.24 vol pts2026-09-27T17:31:00+00:00: 1.33 vol pts2026-10-16T17:31:00+00:00: 1.44 vol pts2026-09-17T17:31:00+00:00: 1.67 vol pts2026-09-16T17:31:00+00:00: 1.68 vol pts2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00: 1.69 vol pts2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00: 1.79 vol pts2026-09-30T17:31:00+00:00: 1.88 vol pts2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00: 1.93 vol pts2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00: 2.06 vol pts2026-10-19T17:31:00+00:00: 2.24 vol pts2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00: 2.26 vol pts2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00: 2.29 vol pts2026-09-20T17:31:00+00:00: 2.32 vol pts2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00: 2.38 vol pts2026-09-14T17:31:00+00:00: 2.39 vol pts2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00: 2.45 vol pts2026-10-20T17:31:00+00:00: 2.86 vol pts2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00: 2.86 vol pts2026-10-05T17:31:00+00:00: 2.93 vol pts2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00: 2.94 vol pts2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00: 3.12 vol pts2026-10-12T17:31:00+00:00: 3.35 vol pts2026-10-09T17:31:00+00:00: 3.46 vol pts2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00: 3.50 vol pts2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00: 3.62 vol pts2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00: 4.13 vol pts2026-10-13T17:31:00+00:00: 6.10 vol pts2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00: 13.18 vol ptsCurrent statistic: 3.01 vol ptsSample rank (ordered by value)
Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 3.01 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. n=54; 2026-09-10 to 2026-11-08; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

[15]

SOL BF25 curve

SOL BF25 curve1.86 vol pts1.79 vol pts1.73 vol pts1.66 vol pts1.59 vol pts1W2W1M2M3M1W · Current · 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.59 vol pts2W · Current · 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.60 vol pts1M · Current · 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.80 vol pts2M · Current · 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.86 vol pts3M · Current · 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.83 vol pts1W · Comparison · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.66 vol pts2W · Comparison · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.59 vol pts1M · Comparison · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.68 vol pts2M · Comparison · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.74 vol pts3M · Comparison · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.75 vol pts
Current · 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [48] [49] [50] [51] [52]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor-0.20 vol pts0.00 vol pts0.20 vol pts1W1W · SOL · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.07 vol pts-0.072W2W · SOL · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.01 vol pts0.011M1M · SOL · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.12 vol pts0.12
SOL · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [16] [18] [20]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
SOL · 1W ATM implied volatility10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 61.73 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 61.73 % and strictly above 57.02 %.
Prior level: at or below 57.02 % (prior level).		08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[2] [10] [1]
SOL · 2W ATM implied volatility10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 59.02 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 59.02 % and strictly above 56.01 %.
Prior level: at or below 56.01 % (prior level).		08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[4] [41] [3]
SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above -2.87 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below -2.87 vol pts and strictly above -3.39 vol pts.
Prior level: at or below -3.39 vol pts (prior level).		08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[25] [53] [26]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
SOL 2W.atmIv.absolute_move[15]full captured history542026-09-09T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:002026-09-12T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-13T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference

4.71 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[2] SOL 1W ATM IV

61.73 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[3] SOL 2W ATM IV difference

3.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[4] SOL 2W ATM IV

59.02 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[5] SOL 1M ATM IV difference

1.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[6] SOL 1M ATM IV

57.18 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[7] SOL 2M ATM IV difference

0.15 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[8] SOL 2M ATM IV

56.42 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[9] SOL 3M ATM IV difference

-0.18 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[10] SOL 1W ATM IV

57.02 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[11] SOL 2M ATM IV

56.27 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[12] SOL spotPrice percentage change

-2.90 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[13] SOL rv7d.recomputed

62.98 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[14] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-1.25 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[15] SOL 2W ATM IV absolute move percentile

85.19 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[16] SOL 1W BF25 difference

-0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[17] SOL 1W BF25

1.59 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[18] SOL 2W BF25 difference

0.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[19] SOL 2W BF25

1.60 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[20] SOL 1M BF25 difference

0.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[21] SOL 1M BF25

1.80 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[22] SOL 3M RR25 difference

-0.63 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[23] SOL 3M RR25

-0.26 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[24] SOL 3M RR25

-0.89 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[25] SOL 1W RR25

-2.87 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[26] SOL 1W RR25 difference

0.52 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[27] SOL 2W RR25

-2.00 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[28] SOL 2W RR25 difference

0.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[29] SOL 1M RR25

-1.65 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[30] SOL 1M RR25 difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[31] SOL 2M RR25

-1.25 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[32] SOL 2M RR25 difference

-0.39 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[33] SOL 2M BF25 difference

0.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[34] SOL 3M ATM IV

56.01 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[35] SOL 3M BF25 difference

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[36] SOL 1M ATM IV

56.10 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[37] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-4.55 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[38] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.92 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[39] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.79 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[40] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.74 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[41] SOL 2W ATM IV

56.01 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[48] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[49] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[50] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[51] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[52] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[53] SOL 1W RR25

-3.39 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

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