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\"\" DERIVASYS

Focused research note

SOL ATM inversion narrows

SOL’s ATM volatility curve remains inverted between 1W and 3M, but longer-dated volatility rose faster, narrowing the separation. Directional pricing diverged: 1W downside asymmetry eased while 1M downside asymmetry deepened. The result is broader volatility repricing without uniform relief in downside protection.

Derivasys Research

Report date08 Nov 2026
Current snapshot08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageSOL
Comparison snapshot07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

SOL’s longer-dated volatility is catching up with its front end. Over the matched daily comparison, 1W at-the-money implied volatility, or ATM IV, changed by +0.84 vol points [1] to 57.02% [2], while 3M ATM IV changed by +1.74 vol points [3] to 56.19% [4]. The ordered endpoint levels remain inverted, but the larger 3M increase narrowed that inversion. Repricing also reached 1M, where ATM IV changed by +1.71 vol points [5] to 56.10% [6]. The 2M ATM IV change of +1.74 vol points [7] ranked at 88.1st percentile [8] in its full captured history of eligible daily absolute moves, with 42 observations (observed sampling; 09 Sep 2026–07 Nov 2026) [8]. That is a magnitude comparison for 2M ATM IV, not evidence that the entire curve configuration is historically exceptional.

Directional pricing qualifies the narrowing ATM inversion. RR25 measures call-versus-put implied-volatility asymmetry: SOL 1W RR25 changed by +0.69 vol points [9] to -3.39 vol points [10], easing an existing downside bias while remaining negative. The matched 1M measure moved the other way, changing by -0.35 vol points [11] to -1.70 vol points [12]. SOL 2M RR25 likewise changed by -0.14 vol points [13], from -0.72 vol points [14] to -0.86 vol points [15]. Those negative-to-more-negative changes deepen existing downside asymmetry at 1M and 2M; they do not signal a return of a previously absent bias. The 1W skew relief therefore cannot support a surface-wide improvement in directional sentiment.

Butterfly pricing shows a different tenor pattern from ATM volatility. BF25 is the average wing IV premium over ATM, rather than absolute wing IV or a directional measure. SOL 1W BF25 changed by +0.24 vol points [16] to 1.66 vol points [17]. The premium also widened at 2W, changing by +0.11 vol points [18] to 1.59 vol points [19], and at 1M, changing by +0.06 vol points [20] to 1.68 vol points [21]. The larger 1W BF25 adjustment sits alongside broader ATM increases and opposing RR25 changes. These are distinct dimensions of the smile, rather than a common directional signal.

The spot and realized-volatility backdrop prevents reading the 1W skew improvement as straightforward bullish repricing. SOL spot changed by -0.78% [22] over the aligned daily window. Trailing realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute-price returns, was 58.31% [23], leaving forward 1W ATM IV minus trailing realized volatility at -1.29 vol points [24]. That spread describes different forward and trailing periods; it establishes neither cheap options nor a trading edge. Meanwhile, The Defiant reported Loopscale vault reopening during the news window. The access headline provides relevant protocol context, but does not explain why SOL 1W RR25 eased while 1M RR25 deepened.

Qualifications and limits

  • The 3M ATM move lacks a matching historical rank; the 2M rank cannot establish its unusualness.
  • Historical ranks describe selected observed daily moves, with gaps retained and no filling; they are not population rarity estimates or joint significance tests.
  • The realized-volatility calculation annualizes adjacent minute log returns on a calendar-day basis and has complete coverage under its source policy. Recomputing the same series does not independently verify the underlying prices.
Further qualifications
  • News publication times and crypto observation endpoints differ. The reopening report is headline-only, and no event-linked response or position-flow evidence establishes the cause of the tenor divergence.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
SOL · 1W57.02 %[2]0.84 vol pts[1]-3.39 vol pts[10]0.69 vol pts[9]0.24 vol pts[16]
SOL · 2W56.01 %[25]1.24 vol pts[26]-2.54 vol pts[27]0.12 vol pts[28]0.11 vol pts[18]
SOL · 1M56.10 %[6]1.71 vol pts[5]-1.70 vol pts[12]-0.35 vol pts[11]0.06 vol pts[20]
SOL · 2M56.27 %[29]1.74 vol pts[7]-0.86 vol pts[15]-0.14 vol pts[13]0.05 vol pts[30]
SOL · 3M56.19 %[4]1.74 vol pts[3]-0.26 vol pts[31]0.18 vol pts[32]0.05 vol pts[33]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
SOL56.18 % [34]54.39 % [35]57.02 % [2]56.10 % [6]Remained inverted
Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

AssetNative observation (UTC)1M minus 1W ATM IV
SOL2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00-0.92 vol pts [36]
SOL2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00-1.79 vol pts [37]
SOL2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00-1.74 vol pts [38]
SOL2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00-7.77 vol pts [39]

SOL: size of daily changes in the 2-month at-the-money implied volatility

SOL: size of daily changes in the 2-month at-the-money implied volatility2.49 vol pts1.87 vol pts1.25 vol pts0.62 vol pts0.00 vol pts2026-10-04T17:31:00+00:00: 0.00 vol pts2026-09-09T17:31:00+00:00: 0.04 vol pts2026-09-30T17:31:00+00:00: 0.11 vol pts2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00: 0.15 vol pts2026-10-20T17:31:00+00:00: 0.16 vol pts2026-09-16T17:31:00+00:00: 0.17 vol pts2026-09-19T17:31:00+00:00: 0.21 vol pts2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00: 0.26 vol pts2026-09-17T17:31:00+00:00: 0.27 vol pts2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00: 0.29 vol pts2026-09-10T17:31:00+00:00: 0.36 vol pts2026-09-27T17:31:00+00:00: 0.41 vol pts2026-10-06T17:31:00+00:00: 0.41 vol pts2026-10-18T17:31:00+00:00: 0.42 vol pts2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00: 0.44 vol pts2026-10-21T17:31:00+00:00: 0.45 vol pts2026-09-20T17:31:00+00:00: 0.47 vol pts2026-10-01T17:31:00+00:00: 0.47 vol pts2026-10-03T17:31:00+00:00: 0.47 vol pts2026-10-14T17:31:00+00:00: 0.53 vol pts2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00: 0.54 vol pts2026-10-17T17:31:00+00:00: 0.57 vol pts2026-10-09T17:31:00+00:00: 0.58 vol pts2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00: 0.70 vol pts2026-09-23T17:31:00+00:00: 0.78 vol pts2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00: 0.81 vol pts2026-09-11T17:31:00+00:00: 0.89 vol pts2026-10-05T17:31:00+00:00: 0.90 vol pts2026-09-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.91 vol pts2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00: 0.96 vol pts2026-09-14T17:31:00+00:00: 1.06 vol pts2026-10-19T17:31:00+00:00: 1.17 vol pts2026-10-12T17:31:00+00:00: 1.21 vol pts2026-09-18T17:31:00+00:00: 1.32 vol pts2026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00: 1.51 vol pts2026-10-16T17:31:00+00:00: 1.65 vol pts2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00: 1.68 vol pts2026-10-13T17:31:00+00:00: 1.78 vol pts2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00: 1.81 vol pts2026-10-15T17:31:00+00:00: 1.89 vol pts2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00: 2.00 vol pts2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00: 2.49 vol ptsCurrent statistic: 1.74 vol ptsSample rank (ordered by value)
Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 1.74 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. n=42; 2026-09-09 to 2026-11-07; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

[8]

SOL RR25 curve

SOL RR25 curve-0.26 vol pts-1.22 vol pts-2.17 vol pts-3.12 vol pts-4.08 vol pts1W2W1M2M3M1W · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -3.39 vol pts2W · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.54 vol pts1M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -1.70 vol pts2M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -0.86 vol pts3M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -0.26 vol pts1W · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -4.08 vol pts2W · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.66 vol pts1M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -1.35 vol pts2M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -0.72 vol pts3M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -0.44 vol pts
Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [45] [46] [47] [48] [49]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor-0.30 vol pts0.00 vol pts0.30 vol pts1W1W · SOL · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.24 vol pts0.242W2W · SOL · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.11 vol pts0.111M1M · SOL · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.06 vol pts0.06
SOL · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [16] [18] [20]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
SOL · 1W ATM implied volatility09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 57.02 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 57.02 % and strictly above 56.18 %.
Prior level: at or below 56.18 % (prior level).		07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[2] [34] [1]
SOL · 3M ATM implied volatility09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 56.19 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 56.19 % and strictly above 54.45 %.
Prior level: at or below 54.45 % (prior level).		07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[4] [60] [3]
SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above -3.39 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below -3.39 vol pts and strictly above -4.08 vol pts.
Prior level: at or below -4.08 vol pts (prior level).		07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[10] [50] [9]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
SOL 2M.atmIv.absolute_move[8]full captured history422026-09-08T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:002026-09-12T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-13T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference

0.84 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[2] SOL 1W ATM IV

57.02 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[3] SOL 3M ATM IV difference

1.74 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[4] SOL 3M ATM IV

56.19 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[5] SOL 1M ATM IV difference

1.71 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[6] SOL 1M ATM IV

56.10 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[7] SOL 2M ATM IV difference

1.74 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[8] SOL 2M ATM IV absolute move percentile

88.10 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[9] SOL 1W RR25 difference

0.69 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[10] SOL 1W RR25

-3.39 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[11] SOL 1M RR25 difference

-0.35 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[12] SOL 1M RR25

-1.70 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[13] SOL 2M RR25 difference

-0.14 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[14] SOL 2M RR25

-0.72 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[15] SOL 2M RR25

-0.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[16] SOL 1W BF25 difference

0.24 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[17] SOL 1W BF25

1.66 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[18] SOL 2W BF25 difference

0.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[19] SOL 2W BF25

1.59 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[20] SOL 1M BF25 difference

0.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[21] SOL 1M BF25

1.68 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[22] SOL spotPrice percentage change

-0.78 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[23] SOL rv7d.recomputed

58.31 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[24] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-1.29 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[25] SOL 2W ATM IV

56.01 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[26] SOL 2W ATM IV difference

1.24 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[27] SOL 2W RR25

-2.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[28] SOL 2W RR25 difference

0.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[29] SOL 2M ATM IV

56.27 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[30] SOL 2M BF25 difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[31] SOL 3M RR25

-0.26 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[32] SOL 3M RR25 difference

0.18 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[33] SOL 3M BF25 difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[34] SOL 1W ATM IV

56.18 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[35] SOL 1M ATM IV

54.39 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[36] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.92 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[37] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.79 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[38] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.74 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[39] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-7.77 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[45] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[46] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[47] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[48] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[49] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[50] SOL 1W RR25

-4.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[60] SOL 3M ATM IV

54.45 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

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