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\"\" DERIVASYS

Focused research note

SOL weekly ATM volatility jumps into inversion

SOL’s ATM volatility repricing was strongest at 1W, leaving the front above longer comparable tenors. Weekly RR25 crossed from call bias to slight put bias, while butterfly premiums narrowed across the shorter tenors. The distinction matters: higher ATM volatility, directional asymmetry and the wing premium relative to ATM describe different adjustments.

Derivasys Research

Report date05 Nov 2026
Current snapshot05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageSOL
Comparison snapshot04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

SOL 1W ATM IV rose by +11.42 vol points [1] to 62.13% [2] over the crypto daily comparison. The ordered endpoints establish an inverted ATM curve: 2W stood at 55.64% [3], followed by 1M at 54.36% [4]. The weekly absolute ATM move ranked at 96.3rd percentile [5] against full captured history, with 54 observations (observed sampling; 06 Sep 2026–04 Nov 2026) [5]. This supports a front-loaded increase in the price of forward uncertainty.

The directional adjustment was sharper at 1W and diverged from 1M. SOL 1W RR25 moved from 2.31 vol points [6] to -0.19 vol points [7], changing by -2.50 vol points [8]. That crossing marks a loss of weekly call bias and a slight put premium. By contrast, 1M RR25 increased by +0.19 vol points [9] to 0.29 vol points [10], retaining call bias. The weekly move therefore does not establish a downside tilt across comparable tenors.

Butterfly premiums also narrowed, with a meaningful middle-tenor contribution to the measured pattern. SOL 1W BF25 changed by -0.31 vol points [11] to 1.06 vol points [12]. At 2W, BF25 changed by -0.25 vol points [13] to 1.08 vol points [14], so butterfly narrowing was not confined to 1W. The 1M adjustment was smaller: BF25 changed by -0.03 vol points [15] to 1.47 vol points [16]. BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM; its decline alongside rising ATM IV establishes a narrower relative premium, without establishing lower absolute wing IV.

The 1W ATM increase accompanied a SOL spot return of -6.35% [17] over the aligned crypto daily interval. Trailing weekly realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute prices, was 64.85% [18]; forward 1W ATM IV minus that trailing measure was -2.72 vol points [19]. Thus the weekly IV jump still left forward IV below trailing realized volatility, a descriptive comparison across different periods. Broader markets offer a timing qualification: SPX rose by +1.58% [20] and VIX changed by -4.22 index points [21] between the preceding US session closes. Those earlier closes cannot establish synchronized risk aversion during SOL’s options adjustment. The Bank of England published a tightening decision during the crypto interval, but chronology alone cannot explain why SOL ATM repricing was strongest at 1W.

Qualifications and limits

  • ATM repricing extended beyond 1W: 2W increased by +2.86 vol points [22], while 1M increased by +0.90 vol points [23]. These increases limit any claim that the adjustment was confined to weekly options.
  • Historical ranks describe selected observed daily moves within their stated captured bounds; missing dates and selection can bias rank. They do not establish population rarity or joint significance. Crypto endpoints and US session closes use distinct clocks, and news publication times do not establish event responses.
  • Forward 1W IV and trailing weekly RV cover different periods. RV uses annualized mean squared minute log returns with complete observed coverage; the spread establishes neither a volatility regime nor valuation, a forecast or a trading edge.
Further qualifications
  • Comparable fixed-tenor conclusions cover 1W, 2W and 1M. Listed-expiry additions and removals limit interpretation as repricing of an unchanged contract universe.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
SOL · 1W62.13 %[2]11.42 vol pts[1]-0.19 vol pts[7]-2.50 vol pts[8]-0.31 vol pts[11]
SOL · 2W55.64 %[3]2.86 vol pts[22]0.56 vol pts[24]-0.07 vol pts[25]-0.25 vol pts[13]
SOL · 1M54.36 %[4]0.90 vol pts[23]0.29 vol pts[10]0.19 vol pts[9]-0.03 vol pts[15]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
SOL50.71 % [26]53.46 % [27]62.13 % [2]54.36 % [4]Upward sloping → Inverted

SOL BF25 curve

SOL BF25 curve1.50 vol pts1.39 vol pts1.28 vol pts1.17 vol pts1.06 vol pts1W2W1M2M3M1W · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.06 vol pts2W · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.08 vol pts1M · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.47 vol pts1W · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.37 vol pts2W · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.33 vol pts1M · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.50 vol pts
Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [31] [32] [33]

SOL: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility

SOL: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility16.02 vol pts12.02 vol pts8.03 vol pts4.04 vol pts0.04 vol pts2026-09-09T17:31:00+00:00: 0.04 vol pts2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00: 0.20 vol pts2026-09-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.30 vol pts2026-10-06T17:31:00+00:00: 0.34 vol pts2026-10-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.46 vol pts2026-10-14T17:31:00+00:00: 0.50 vol pts2026-09-07T17:31:00+00:00: 0.57 vol pts2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00: 0.61 vol pts2026-10-17T17:31:00+00:00: 0.68 vol pts2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00: 0.74 vol pts2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00: 0.82 vol pts2026-09-08T17:31:00+00:00: 0.91 vol pts2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00: 0.92 vol pts2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00: 0.97 vol pts2026-09-11T17:31:00+00:00: 1.03 vol pts2026-10-03T17:31:00+00:00: 1.07 vol pts2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00: 1.37 vol pts2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00: 1.45 vol pts2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00: 1.51 vol pts2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00: 1.52 vol pts2026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00: 1.55 vol pts2026-10-01T17:31:00+00:00: 1.65 vol pts2026-10-05T17:31:00+00:00: 1.71 vol pts2026-09-18T17:31:00+00:00: 1.73 vol pts2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00: 1.73 vol pts2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00: 1.74 vol pts2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00: 1.78 vol pts2026-10-04T17:31:00+00:00: 1.87 vol pts2026-09-19T17:31:00+00:00: 1.92 vol pts2026-10-16T17:31:00+00:00: 1.92 vol pts2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00: 1.95 vol pts2026-10-19T17:31:00+00:00: 2.08 vol pts2026-09-10T17:31:00+00:00: 2.30 vol pts2026-10-18T17:31:00+00:00: 2.44 vol pts2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00: 2.63 vol pts2026-09-27T17:31:00+00:00: 2.69 vol pts2026-10-21T17:31:00+00:00: 2.77 vol pts2026-09-30T17:31:00+00:00: 2.80 vol pts2026-09-14T17:31:00+00:00: 2.86 vol pts2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00: 2.86 vol pts2026-10-20T17:31:00+00:00: 2.92 vol pts2026-09-20T17:31:00+00:00: 3.08 vol pts2026-09-16T17:31:00+00:00: 3.30 vol pts2026-09-17T17:31:00+00:00: 3.40 vol pts2026-09-23T17:31:00+00:00: 3.57 vol pts2026-10-12T17:31:00+00:00: 3.73 vol pts2026-09-06T17:31:00+00:00: 4.69 vol pts2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00: 4.82 vol pts2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00: 5.57 vol pts2026-10-13T17:31:00+00:00: 7.87 vol pts2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00: 8.25 vol pts2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00: 9.13 vol pts2026-10-09T17:31:00+00:00: 12.42 vol pts2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00: 16.02 vol ptsCurrent statistic: 11.42 vol ptsSample rank (ordered by value)
Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 11.42 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. n=54; 2026-09-06 to 2026-11-04; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

[5]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor-0.40 vol pts0.00 vol pts0.40 vol pts1W1W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.31 vol pts-0.312W2W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.25 vol pts-0.251M1M · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.03 vol pts-0.03
SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [11] [13] [15]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
SOL · 1W ATM implied volatility06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 62.13 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 62.13 % and strictly above 50.71 %.
Prior level: at or below 50.71 % (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[2] [26] [1]
SOL · 1W 25-delta butterfly premium06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below 1.06 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above 1.06 vol pts and strictly below 1.37 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above 1.37 vol pts (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[12] [34] [11]
SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below -0.19 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above -0.19 vol pts and strictly below 2.31 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above 2.31 vol pts (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[7] [6] [8]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
SOL 1W.atmIv.absolute_move[5]full captured history542026-09-05T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:002026-09-12T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-13T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference

11.42 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[2] SOL 1W ATM IV

62.13 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[3] SOL 2W ATM IV

55.64 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[4] SOL 1M ATM IV

54.36 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[5] SOL 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile

96.30 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[6] SOL 1W RR25

2.31 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[7] SOL 1W RR25

-0.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[8] SOL 1W RR25 difference

-2.50 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[9] SOL 1M RR25 difference

0.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[10] SOL 1M RR25

0.29 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[11] SOL 1W BF25 difference

-0.31 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[12] SOL 1W BF25

1.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[13] SOL 2W BF25 difference

-0.25 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[14] SOL 2W BF25

1.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[15] SOL 1M BF25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[16] SOL 1M BF25

1.47 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[17] SOL spotPrice percentage change

-6.35 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[18] SOL rv7d.recomputed

64.85 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[19] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-2.72 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[20] SPX close percentage change

1.58 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00

[21] VIX close difference

-4.22 index points

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00

[22] SOL 2W ATM IV difference

2.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[23] SOL 1M ATM IV difference

0.90 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[24] SOL 2W RR25

0.56 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[25] SOL 2W RR25 difference

-0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[26] SOL 1W ATM IV

50.71 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[27] SOL 1M ATM IV

53.46 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[31] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[32] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[33] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[34] SOL 1W BF25

1.37 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

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