Ether’s ATM curve exits inversion

Ether’s 1M-minus-1W ATM volatility spread turned positive at +0.08 vol points ^[1], while Bitcoin and Solana remained inverted. The shared narrowing of inversion therefore stops short of uniform normalization: Solana’s lower 1W ATM volatility coincided with deeper downside skew and higher butterfly premiums across the supplied shorter tenors.

Derivasys Research

Report date06 Nov 2026

Current snapshot06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

CoverageBTC, ETH, SOL

Comparison snapshot05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

Ether alone exited inversion in the aligned crypto comparison: its 1M-minus-1W spread changed by +0.64 vol points ^[2] to +0.08 vol points ^[1]. Bitcoin’s spread changed by +1.51 vol points ^[3] to -0.78 vol points ^[4], and Solana’s by +6.03 vol points ^[5] to -1.74 vol points ^[6]. ATM means at-the-money implied volatility. The narrowing primarily reflects lower 1W ATM readings: Bitcoin changed by -1.96 vol points ^[7] to 38.75% ^[8], Ether by -0.70 vol points ^[9] to 52.30% ^[10], and Solana by -4.89 vol points ^[11] to 57.24% ^[12]. Matched 1M ATM changes distinguish Solana from its peers: Bitcoin changed by -0.45 vol points ^[13] to 37.97% ^[14], Ether by -0.06 vol points ^[15] to 52.38% ^[16], but Solana by +1.14 vol points ^[17] to 55.50% ^[18]. Ether’s crossing is consequently a narrow change in tenor ordering, while Solana combines front-end relief with firmer deferred ATM volatility.

Directional pricing also separates Ether from Bitcoin and Solana. RR25 measures call-versus-put IV asymmetry; negative readings indicate a put premium. Ether’s 1W RR25 changed by +0.20 vol points ^[19] to -5.66 vol points ^[20], easing an existing downside bias. Bitcoin’s changed by -1.00 vol points ^[21] to -3.19 vol points ^[22], and Solana’s by -4.03 vol points ^[23] to -4.22 vol points ^[24], deepening their already negative readings. The matched 1M comparison confirms that these directions extend beyond 1W: Ether’s RR25 changed by +0.61 vol points ^[25] to -3.61 vol points ^[26], Bitcoin’s by -0.66 vol points ^[27] to -3.09 vol points ^[28], and Solana’s by -0.69 vol points ^[29] to -0.40 vol points ^[30]. Solana’s 1M RR25 crossed from positive to negative, whereas its 1W move strengthened an existing downside bias. Ether’s skew relief therefore reaches 1M despite its nearly unchanged 1M ATM volatility.

Butterfly premiums make Solana’s distinction broader than its 1W ATM decline. BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM, rather than absolute wing IV or directional bias. Solana’s 1W BF25 changed by +0.54 vol points ^[31] to 1.60 vol points ^[32]; Bitcoin’s changed by -0.03 vol points ^[33] to 1.02 vol points ^[34], and Ether’s by -0.28 vol points ^[35] to 1.96 vol points ^[36]. At 2W, Solana’s premium changed by +0.59 vol points ^[37] to 1.67 vol points ^[38], against Ether’s +0.04 vol points ^[39] to 1.92 vol points ^[40] and Bitcoin’s -0.06 vol points ^[41] to 1.09 vol points ^[42]. Solana’s 2W widening is thus a substantive middle-tenor feature beside the much smaller opposing peer changes. At 1M, Solana and Ether share widening butterfly premiums: Solana changed by +0.36 vol points ^[43] to 1.83 vol points ^[44], and Ether by +0.15 vol points ^[45] to 1.82 vol points ^[46]. Bitcoin’s 1M premium instead changed by -0.13 vol points ^[47] to 0.95 vol points ^[48]. Ether’s 1W butterfly narrowing therefore coexists with 1M widening, while Solana’s widening spans 1W, 2W and 1M.

Spot and realized volatility qualify the apparent relief in 1W ATM pricing. Over the aligned crypto interval, Bitcoin spot changed by -0.22% ^[49], Ether by -1.08% ^[50], and Solana by +0.56% ^[51]. Solana’s downside-skew deepening therefore accompanied a positive spot return, whereas Ether’s skew relief accompanied a negative return; the options distinction does not simply mirror contemporaneous spot direction. On the common trailing realized-volatility window, Bitcoin registered 39.29% ^[52], Ether 50.15% ^[53], and Solana 59.38% ^[54]. Their forward 1W IV-minus-trailing-RV spreads were respectively -0.54 vol points ^[55], +2.15 vol points ^[56] and -2.14 vol points ^[57]. Ether retains a positive descriptive spread despite its 1W ATM decline; Bitcoin and Solana have negative spreads. Bitcoin’s separate broader volatility benchmarks were DS30 at 42.14 vol points ^[58] and BVIV at 41.49 vol points ^[59], with BVIV-minus-DS30 at -0.65 vol points ^[60]; these use distinct methodologies from fixed-tenor ATM IV. Meanwhile, The Guardian reported hiring resilience alongside a subdued hiring backdrop and a tightening interpretation. That chronology supplies a possible policy backdrop, but does not explain why Ether’s 1M-minus-1W curve crossed into positive territory while Bitcoin and Solana remained inverted.

Qualifications and limits

Solana’s 3M ATM volatility changed by +2.66 vol points ^[61], weakening any interpretation of the shared 1W decline as relief across the ATM curve.
Ether’s positive endpoint spread establishes an exit from inversion, without establishing persistence or economic significance.
Forward 1W IV and trailing realized volatility cover different periods; their spread describes the comparison and establishes neither a forecast nor a trading edge. Realized volatility uses retained minute returns under the source coverage policy; Solana’s series spans venues. DS30 and BVIV are independently selected intraday observations, and DS30’s historical ingestion time is unavailable.

Further qualifications

Endpoint comparisons and bounded historical coverage do not establish persistent regimes, joint rarity, investor positioning or news causality. Solana’s matching 3M ATM history could not be ranked.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
BTC · 1W	38.75 %^[8]	-1.96 vol pts^[7]	-3.19 vol pts^[22]	-1.00 vol pts^[21]	-0.03 vol pts^[33]
BTC · 2W	38.05 %^[62]	-0.70 vol pts^[63]	-3.55 vol pts^[64]	-0.99 vol pts^[65]	-0.06 vol pts^[41]
BTC · 1M	37.97 %^[14]	-0.45 vol pts^[13]	-3.09 vol pts^[28]	-0.66 vol pts^[27]	-0.13 vol pts^[47]
ETH · 1W	52.30 %^[10]	-0.70 vol pts^[9]	-5.66 vol pts^[20]	0.20 vol pts^[19]	-0.28 vol pts^[35]
ETH · 2W	52.07 %^[66]	-0.68 vol pts^[67]	-5.36 vol pts^[68]	-1.01 vol pts^[69]	0.04 vol pts^[39]
ETH · 1M	52.38 %^[16]	-0.06 vol pts^[15]	-3.61 vol pts^[26]	0.61 vol pts^[25]	0.15 vol pts^[45]
SOL · 1W	57.24 %^[12]	-4.89 vol pts^[11]	-4.22 vol pts^[24]	-4.03 vol pts^[23]	0.54 vol pts^[31]
SOL · 2W	56.70 %^[70]	1.06 vol pts^[71]	-2.76 vol pts^[72]	-3.32 vol pts^[73]	0.59 vol pts^[37]
SOL · 1M	55.50 %^[18]	1.14 vol pts^[17]	-0.40 vol pts^[30]	-0.69 vol pts^[29]	0.36 vol pts^[43]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
BTC	40.71 % ^[74]	38.42 % ^[75]	38.75 % ^[8]	37.97 % ^[14]	Remained inverted
ETH	53.00 % ^[76]	52.44 % ^[77]	52.30 % ^[10]	52.38 % ^[16]	Inverted → Upward sloping
SOL	62.13 % ^[78]	54.36 % ^[79]	57.24 % ^[12]	55.50 % ^[18]	Remained inverted

Cross-asset RR25 change

BTC · ETH · SOL. Matched native endpoints, window and units; changes in volatility points.

Figure evidence: ^[21] ^[27] ^[19] ^[25] ^[23] ^[29]

1W ATM IV move comparison

Change. Common recorded native interval and eligible cohort only.

BF25 change by tenor

BTC · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · ETH · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · SOL · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: ^[33] ^[41] ^[47] ^[35] ^[39] ^[45] ^[31] ^[37] ^[43]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next snapshot	Observed condition	Comparison period	Evidence
ETH · 1W 25-delta risk reversal	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above -5.66 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below -5.66 vol pts and strictly above -5.86 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -5.86 vol pts (prior level).	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[20] ^[123] ^[19]
BTC · 1W 25-delta risk reversal	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below -3.19 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above -3.19 vol pts and strictly below -2.19 vol pts. Prior level: at or above -2.19 vol pts (prior level).	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[22] ^[80] ^[21]
SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below -4.22 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above -4.22 vol pts and strictly below -0.19 vol pts. Prior level: at or above -0.19 vol pts (prior level).	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[24] ^[166] ^[23]

Source reporting

US job growth exceeds expectations in October despite economic uncertainty · Published 2026-11-06T13:42:26+00:00
US job growth exceeds expectations in October despite economic uncertainty · Published 2026-11-06T13:42:26+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes