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\"\" DERIVASYS

Focused research note

SOL leads 1W ATM repricing; ETH downside skew deepens

Crypto volatility repriced unevenly: SOL led the 1W ATM increase, while ETH showed the clearest deepening of existing 1W downside skew. BTC’s 1W skew eased despite higher ATM volatility. Matched 1M comparisons show that ATM repricing was strongest at 1W, but skew adjustments extended beyond that tenor; SOL’s declining BF25 describes a narrower relative butterfly premium, not falling absolute wing volatility.

Derivasys Research

Report date05 Nov 2026
Current snapshot05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageBTC, ETH, SOL
Comparison snapshot04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

SOL led the 1W ATM repricing over the native daily comparison, rising by +11.42 vol points [1] to 62.13% [2]. BTC’s 1W ATM rose by +5.83 vol points [3] to 40.71% [4], and ETH’s increased by +5.32 vol points [5] to 53.00% [6]. The matched 1M changes were smaller: BTC increased by +2.43 vol points [7] to 38.42% [8], ETH by +3.53 vol points [9] to 52.44% [10], and SOL by +0.90 vol points [11] to 54.36% [12]. SOL’s ordered ATM endpoints establish an inverted curve: its 1W reading exceeds its 2W reading of 55.64% [13], which exceeds its 1M reading. The 2W ATM increase of +2.86 vol points [14] also shows that the adjustment was not confined to 1W. ETH’s 1M absolute daily ATM change ranked at 98.2nd percentile [15] within its eligible full captured history, supporting attention to the monthly adjustment without establishing unusualness of the joint cross-asset configuration.

Directional pricing separates the assets more sharply than the common rise in 1W ATM volatility. BTC’s 1W RR25 improved by +0.59 vol points [16] to -2.19 vol points [17], easing an existing downside bias. ETH’s already negative 1W RR25 declined by -2.59 vol points [18] to -5.86 vol points [19], deepening that bias. SOL’s 1W RR25 fell by -2.50 vol points [20] to -0.19 vol points [21], crossing from positive to slightly negative. Matched 1M RR25 confirms broader BTC relief and ETH downside repricing: BTC improved by +0.65 vol points [22] to -2.43 vol points [23], while ETH declined by -1.10 vol points [24] to -4.22 vol points [25]. SOL is the tenor exception: its 1M RR25 improved by +0.19 vol points [26] to a still-positive 0.29 vol points [27]. Relative butterfly premiums also diverged. At 1W, BTC BF25 rose by +0.11 vol points [28] to 1.05 vol points [29], ETH rose by +0.81 vol points [30] to 2.24 vol points [31], and SOL declined by -0.31 vol points [32] to 1.06 vol points [33]. The same opposing directions extend to 2W: BTC BF25 increased by +0.12 vol points [34] to 1.15 vol points [35], ETH by +0.37 vol points [36] to 1.88 vol points [37], while SOL fell by -0.25 vol points [38] to 1.08 vol points [39]. At 1M, ETH BF25 still increased by +0.17 vol points [40] to 1.67 vol points [41], whereas BTC changed by -0.02 vol points [42] to 1.08 vol points [43] and SOL by -0.03 vol points [44] to 1.47 vol points [45]. Thus ETH’s relative butterfly expansion has broader tenor reach, while SOL’s narrowing is clearest at 1W and 2W. BF25 measures average wing IV relative to ATM; its decline does not establish falling absolute wing IV.

Spot losses accompany the 1W ATM increases across the full cohort, but do not explain the divergent smile adjustments. Over the crypto daily interval, BTC spot returned -5.50% [46], ETH -7.17% [47], and SOL -6.35% [48]. ETH’s larger spot decline therefore coincided with deeper negative 1W RR25, whereas BTC retained 1W skew relief and SOL combined the largest 1W ATM increase with a narrower relative butterfly premium. On the common trailing weekly RV window, BTC registered 40.76% [49], ETH 55.48% [50], and SOL 64.85% [51]. Forward 1W ATM IV minus trailing weekly RV was -0.05 vol points [52] for BTC, -2.48 vol points [53] for ETH, and -2.72 vol points [54] for SOL. The negative spreads qualify any suggestion that the 1W ATM increases alone establish expensive insurance: forward and trailing volatility cover different periods. Separately selected BTC volatility benchmarks were DS30 at 43.72 vol points [55] and BVIV at 42.33 vol points [56], with BVIV minus DS30 at -1.39 vol points [57]. Their distinct methodologies and intraday selection clocks prevent treating that spread as a matched 1M ATM discrepancy.

The news chronology provides a plausible setting for higher 1W ATM volatility, while leaving the asset-specific RR25 and BF25 differences unresolved. Decrypt reported crypto and AI-equity selling before the crypto endpoint. Earlier in the news window, Cointelegraph described miner financing pressure linked to AI expansion. These reports identify possible risk-appetite and financing channels, but neither establishes why SOL’s 1W ATM rose most or why ETH’s 1W downside asymmetry deepened while BTC’s eased. The relevant broader-market qualification is temporal: the earlier completed US close-to-close comparison showed SPX gaining +1.58% [58] and VIX changing by -4.22 index points [59]. Those earlier closes describe a different phase of trading from the later crypto daily endpoint and cannot confirm the reported contemporaneous equity selloff. The central watch remains SOL’s 1W ATM inversion; the supporting watches are the breadth of BTC and ETH RR25 changes and the opposing ETH–SOL BF25 adjustments across matched tenors.

Qualifications and limits

  • Crypto changes use native daily endpoints; the broader-market comparison uses the earlier completed US session. Independently selected BTC benchmarks also have distinct source clocks, and DS30’s historical ingestion time is unavailable. Chronology and association do not establish a catalyst or investor positioning.
  • Historical ranks describe selected observed absolute daily changes in separate captured populations, with gaps retained and no filling. They are not population rarity estimates or evidence of joint significance.
  • Forward 1W IV and trailing weekly RV measure different periods. Their spread establishes neither a forecast nor a trading edge; absolute average wing IV also requires a validated calculation beyond BF25 alone.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
BTC · 1W40.71 %[4]5.83 vol pts[3]-2.19 vol pts[17]0.59 vol pts[16]0.11 vol pts[28]
BTC · 2W38.75 %[60]3.90 vol pts[61]-2.56 vol pts[62]0.40 vol pts[63]0.12 vol pts[34]
BTC · 1M38.42 %[8]2.43 vol pts[7]-2.43 vol pts[23]0.65 vol pts[22]-0.02 vol pts[42]
ETH · 1W53.00 %[6]5.32 vol pts[5]-5.86 vol pts[19]-2.59 vol pts[18]0.81 vol pts[30]
ETH · 2W52.75 %[64]4.60 vol pts[65]-4.35 vol pts[66]-1.38 vol pts[67]0.37 vol pts[36]
ETH · 1M52.44 %[10]3.53 vol pts[9]-4.22 vol pts[25]-1.10 vol pts[24]0.17 vol pts[40]
SOL · 1W62.13 %[2]11.42 vol pts[1]-0.19 vol pts[21]-2.50 vol pts[20]-0.31 vol pts[32]
SOL · 2W55.64 %[13]2.86 vol pts[14]0.56 vol pts[68]-0.07 vol pts[69]-0.25 vol pts[38]
SOL · 1M54.36 %[12]0.90 vol pts[11]0.29 vol pts[27]0.19 vol pts[26]-0.03 vol pts[44]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
BTC34.88 % [70]35.99 % [71]40.71 % [4]38.42 % [8]Upward sloping → Inverted
ETH47.68 % [72]48.91 % [73]53.00 % [6]52.44 % [10]Upward sloping → Inverted
SOL50.71 % [74]53.46 % [75]62.13 % [2]54.36 % [12]Upward sloping → Inverted

Cross-asset RR25 change

Cross-asset RR25 change-3.00 vol pts0.00 vol pts3.00 vol pts1W1W · BTC: 0.59 vol pts0.591W · ETH: -2.59 vol pts-2.591W · SOL: -2.50 vol pts-2.501M1M · BTC: 0.65 vol pts0.651M · ETH: -1.10 vol pts-1.101M · SOL: 0.19 vol pts0.19
BTC · ETH · SOL. Matched native endpoints, window and units; changes in volatility points.

Figure evidence: [16] [22] [18] [24] [20] [26]

1W ATM IV move comparison

1W ATM IV move comparison-20.00 vol pts0.00 vol pts20.00 vol ptsBTCBTC · Change: 5.83 vol pts5.83ETHETH · Change: 5.32 vol pts5.32SOLSOL · Change: 11.42 vol pts11.42
Change. Common recorded native interval and eligible cohort only.

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor-0.90 vol pts0.00 vol pts0.90 vol pts1W1W · BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.11 vol pts0.111W · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.81 vol pts0.811W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.31 vol pts-0.312W2W · BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.12 vol pts0.122W · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.37 vol pts0.372W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.25 vol pts-0.251M1M · BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.02 vol pts-0.021M · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.17 vol pts0.171M · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.03 vol pts-0.03
BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [28] [34] [42] [30] [36] [40] [32] [38] [44]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
ETH · 1W 25-delta risk reversal06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below -5.86 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above -5.86 vol pts and strictly below -3.27 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above -3.27 vol pts (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[19] [116] [18]
BTC · 1W 25-delta risk reversal06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above -2.19 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below -2.19 vol pts and strictly above -2.78 vol pts.
Prior level: at or below -2.78 vol pts (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[17] [76] [16]
SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below -0.19 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above -0.19 vol pts and strictly below 2.31 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above 2.31 vol pts (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[21] [159] [20]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
ETH 1M.atmIv.absolute_move[15]full captured history562026-09-05T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:002026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference

11.42 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[2] SOL 1W ATM IV

62.13 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[3] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

5.83 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[4] BTC 1W ATM IV

40.71 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[5] ETH 1W ATM IV difference

5.32 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[6] ETH 1W ATM IV

53.00 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[7] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

2.43 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[8] BTC 1M ATM IV

38.42 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[9] ETH 1M ATM IV difference

3.53 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[10] ETH 1M ATM IV

52.44 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[11] SOL 1M ATM IV difference

0.90 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[12] SOL 1M ATM IV

54.36 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[13] SOL 2W ATM IV

55.64 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[14] SOL 2W ATM IV difference

2.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[15] ETH 1M ATM IV absolute move percentile

98.21 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[16] BTC 1W RR25 difference

0.59 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[17] BTC 1W RR25

-2.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[18] ETH 1W RR25 difference

-2.59 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[19] ETH 1W RR25

-5.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[20] SOL 1W RR25 difference

-2.50 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[21] SOL 1W RR25

-0.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[22] BTC 1M RR25 difference

0.65 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[23] BTC 1M RR25

-2.43 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[24] ETH 1M RR25 difference

-1.10 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[25] ETH 1M RR25

-4.22 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[26] SOL 1M RR25 difference

0.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[27] SOL 1M RR25

0.29 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[28] BTC 1W BF25 difference

0.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[29] BTC 1W BF25

1.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[30] ETH 1W BF25 difference

0.81 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[31] ETH 1W BF25

2.24 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[32] SOL 1W BF25 difference

-0.31 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[33] SOL 1W BF25

1.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[34] BTC 2W BF25 difference

0.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[35] BTC 2W BF25

1.15 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[36] ETH 2W BF25 difference

0.37 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[37] ETH 2W BF25

1.88 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[38] SOL 2W BF25 difference

-0.25 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[39] SOL 2W BF25

1.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[40] ETH 1M BF25 difference

0.17 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[41] ETH 1M BF25

1.67 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[42] BTC 1M BF25 difference

-0.02 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[43] BTC 1M BF25

1.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[44] SOL 1M BF25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[45] SOL 1M BF25

1.47 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[46] BTC spotPrice percentage change

-5.50 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[47] ETH spotPrice percentage change

-7.17 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[48] SOL spotPrice percentage change

-6.35 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[49] BTC rv7d.recomputed

40.76 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[50] ETH rv7d.recomputed

55.48 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[51] SOL rv7d.recomputed

64.85 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[52] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[53] ETH 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-2.48 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[54] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-2.72 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[55] BTC btcVol.ds30

43.72 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[56] BTC btcVol.bviv

42.33 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[57] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

-1.39 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[58] SPX close percentage change

1.58 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00

[59] VIX close difference

-4.22 index points

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00

[60] BTC 2W ATM IV

38.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[61] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

3.90 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[62] BTC 2W RR25

-2.56 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[63] BTC 2W RR25 difference

0.40 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[64] ETH 2W ATM IV

52.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[65] ETH 2W ATM IV difference

4.60 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[66] ETH 2W RR25

-4.35 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[67] ETH 2W RR25 difference

-1.38 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[68] SOL 2W RR25

0.56 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[69] SOL 2W RR25 difference

-0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[70] BTC 1W ATM IV

34.88 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[71] BTC 1M ATM IV

35.99 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[72] ETH 1W ATM IV

47.68 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[73] ETH 1M ATM IV

48.91 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[74] SOL 1W ATM IV

50.71 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[75] SOL 1M ATM IV

53.46 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[76] BTC 1W RR25

-2.78 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[116] ETH 1W RR25

-3.27 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[159] SOL 1W RR25

2.31 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

","provenance":{"canonicalReportSha256":"68cd7a878891c98365ab8e677f67acd54dca8eddebdf5149e746e0e41463e3cd","presentationSha256":"1e952bb6338779d04d8f7a00247b50e9d7421111fc11bf6990401bfa93088d5e","reviewedReportSha256":"68cd7a878891c98365ab8e677f67acd54dca8eddebdf5149e746e0e41463e3cd","sourceHtmlSha256":"f2362b8511bd2de165189e6e07853cc975b9adba0f6047c886aa4088fc59177d","sourceJournalSha256":"15d75f516486870fa49af02639eed174dcd3a073d5a8479b6eb950a5e946387f"},"reportDate":"2026-11-05","schemaVersion":1,"snapshotUtc":"2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00","summary":"Crypto volatility repriced unevenly: SOL led the 1W ATM increase, while ETH showed the clearest deepening of existing 1W downside skew. BTC’s 1W skew eased despite higher ATM volatility. Matched 1M comparisons show that ATM repricing was strongest at 1W, but skew adjustments extended beyond that tenor; SOL’s declining BF25 describes a narrower relative butterfly premium, not falling absolute wing volatility.","title":"SOL leads 1W ATM repricing; ETH downside skew deepens"}