Weekly ATM volatility falls across crypto majors

Weekly ATM implied volatility fell across BTC, ETH and SOL as spot prices rose, with SOL recording the largest decline. The easing was less pronounced at matched monthly tenors, while ETH’s deferred ATM volatility increased. Skew and butterfly premiums followed distinct paths, making the adjustment broader and more differentiated than a uniform retreat in options uncertainty.

Derivasys Research

Report date04 Nov 2026

Market snapshot04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCNative current-observation time

CoverageBTC, ETH, SOLAssets represented in supplied data

Comparison snapshot03 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCNative prior-observation time

The reading

What the evidence says

Weekly ATM volatility eased across the majors over the crypto daily comparison interval. BTC 1W ATM IV changed by -4.85 vol points ^[1] to 34.88% ^[2], ETH by -3.30 vol points ^[3] to 47.68% ^[4], and SOL by -8.25 vol points ^[5] to 50.71% ^[6]. Spot rose over the corresponding crypto interval: BTC returned +3.53% ^[7], ETH +5.72% ^[8], and SOL +2.63% ^[9]. SOL therefore combined the largest weekly ATM decline with the smallest spot gain, weakening a simple explanation based on the size of the spot rebound. Its absolute 1W ATM move ranked at 94.4th percentile ^[10] within full captured history, with 54 observations (observed sampling; 05 Sep 2026–03 Nov 2026) ^[10]. Cointelegraph reported an overnight Bitcoin low and subsequent rebound during the election session. That chronology provides context for weekly ATM easing without identifying its cause.

Matched monthly ATM comparisons show that the largest volatility reductions were at 1W, rather than establishing uniform easing along the curve. BTC 1M ATM IV changed by -1.56 vol points ^[11] to 35.99% ^[12], ETH by -0.23 vol points ^[13] to 48.91% ^[14], and SOL by -1.53 vol points ^[15] to 53.46% ^[16]. Directional pricing changed beyond weekly ATM volatility: BTC 1W RR25 rose by +0.95 vol points ^[17] to -2.78 vol points ^[18], and ETH rose by +0.60 vol points ^[19] to -3.27 vol points ^[20]; each became less negative while retaining a downside bias. SOL 1W RR25 rose by +3.80 vol points ^[21] to 2.31 vol points ^[22], crossing from negative to positive. At 1M, BTC RR25 likewise became less negative, changing by +0.38 vol points ^[23] to -3.08 vol points ^[24], while SOL changed by +0.80 vol points ^[25] to 0.10 vol points ^[26], also crossing into positive territory. ETH is the central exception: its 1M RR25 changed by -0.19 vol points ^[27] to -3.12 vol points ^[28], deepening an existing downside bias despite weekly skew relief.

Butterfly premiums also require a tenor-specific reading. BTC 1W BF25 changed by -0.36 vol points ^[29] to 0.94 vol points ^[30], ETH by -0.19 vol points ^[31] to 1.43 vol points ^[32], and SOL by -0.01 vol points ^[33] to 1.37 vol points ^[34]. SOL’s weekly butterfly premium barely moved despite its much larger weekly ATM decline. At 2W, however, BF25 narrowed across the cohort: BTC changed by -0.24 vol points ^[35] to 1.03 vol points ^[36], ETH by -0.08 vol points ^[37] to 1.51 vol points ^[38], and SOL by -0.17 vol points ^[39] to 1.33 vol points ^[40]. Matched 1M BF25 changes distinguish the altcoins again: BTC changed by -0.11 vol points ^[41] to 1.10 vol points ^[42], ETH by +0.06 vol points ^[43] to 1.50 vol points ^[44], and SOL by -0.16 vol points ^[45] to 1.50 vol points ^[46]. Thus SOL’s butterfly narrowing extended through 2W and 1M, while ETH’s 1M premium widened slightly. BTC 2M BF25 changed by just +0.01 vol points ^[47], a negligible deferred exception to its nearer-tenor narrowing. BF25 describes the average wing IV premium over ATM; these changes do not independently establish absolute wing IV or directional demand.

Weekly implied volatility also sits below trailing realized volatility across the cohort. Trailing weekly RV, recomputed from canonical minute returns on an annualized basis, was 39.42% ^[48] for BTC, 54.33% ^[49] for ETH and 63.12% ^[50] for SOL. Their forward 1W ATM IV-minus-trailing-RV spreads were respectively -4.54 vol points ^[51], -6.65 vol points ^[52] and -12.41 vol points ^[53]. SOL had the most negative descriptive spread, reinforcing the scale of its weekly implied-volatility adjustment without establishing cheapness. BTC’s separate volatility benchmarks were DS30 at 40.64 vol points ^[54] and BVIV at 39.91 vol points ^[55], with BVIV-minus-DS30 at -0.73 vol points ^[56]. These broader-horizon benchmarks provide a separate reference from BTC 1W and fixed-tenor 1M ATM IV; their construction does not turn the observed weekly easing into a volatility forecast.

Qualifications and limits

ETH’s deferred ATM volatility resists extrapolating weekly easing: 2M ATM IV increased by +0.42 vol points ^[57] to 50.23% ^[58], while 3M increased by +0.71 vol points ^[59] to 51.00% ^[60]. These opposing tenor changes leave deferred uncertainty firmer as weekly uncertainty eases.
Historical ranks describe selected observed daily moves within the stated captured sample, with gaps retained; they do not measure the rarity or statistical significance of the joint cross-asset configuration. Native market, publication and retrieval clocks remain distinct, and election reporting does not establish causation.
Forward weekly IV and trailing weekly RV cover different periods. RV uses canonical minute returns with an annualization convention and complete coverage under the stated policy; SOL includes a secondary venue. Their spread is descriptive and establishes neither a forecast nor a trading edge.

Further qualifications

BVIV and DS30 are independently selected intraday observations with different constructions; historical DS30 ingestion timing is unavailable. Expiry-universe changes can also affect fixed-tenor comparisons.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
BTC · 1W	34.88 %^[2]	-4.85 vol pts^[1]	-2.78 vol pts^[18]	0.95 vol pts^[17]	-0.36 vol pts^[29]
BTC · 2W	34.85 %^[61]	-3.27 vol pts^[62]	-2.96 vol pts^[63]	0.70 vol pts^[64]	-0.24 vol pts^[35]
BTC · 1M	35.99 %^[12]	-1.56 vol pts^[11]	-3.08 vol pts^[24]	0.38 vol pts^[23]	-0.11 vol pts^[41]
ETH · 1W	47.68 %^[4]	-3.30 vol pts^[3]	-3.27 vol pts^[20]	0.60 vol pts^[19]	-0.19 vol pts^[31]
ETH · 2W	48.15 %^[65]	-1.24 vol pts^[66]	-2.97 vol pts^[67]	0.66 vol pts^[68]	-0.08 vol pts^[37]
ETH · 1M	48.91 %^[14]	-0.23 vol pts^[13]	-3.12 vol pts^[28]	-0.19 vol pts^[27]	0.06 vol pts^[43]
ETH · 2M	50.23 %^[58]	0.42 vol pts^[57]	-3.01 vol pts^[69]	-0.16 vol pts^[70]	0.09 vol pts^[71]
ETH · 3M	51.00 %^[60]	0.71 vol pts^[59]	-2.73 vol pts^[72]	-0.12 vol pts^[73]	0.14 vol pts^[74]
SOL · 1W	50.71 %^[6]	-8.25 vol pts^[5]	2.31 vol pts^[22]	3.80 vol pts^[21]	-0.01 vol pts^[33]
SOL · 2W	52.78 %^[75]	-4.13 vol pts^[76]	0.63 vol pts^[77]	0.98 vol pts^[78]	-0.17 vol pts^[39]
SOL · 1M	53.46 %^[16]	-1.53 vol pts^[15]	0.10 vol pts^[26]	0.80 vol pts^[25]	-0.16 vol pts^[45]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
BTC	39.73 % ^[79]	37.55 % ^[80]	34.88 % ^[2]	35.99 % ^[12]	Inverted → Upward sloping
ETH	50.98 % ^[81]	49.14 % ^[82]	47.68 % ^[4]	48.91 % ^[14]	Inverted → Upward sloping
SOL	58.96 % ^[83]	54.99 % ^[84]	50.71 % ^[6]	53.46 % ^[16]	Inverted → Upward sloping

Cross-asset RR25 change

BTC · ETH · SOL. Matched native endpoints, window and units; changes in volatility points.

Figure evidence: ^[17] ^[23] ^[19] ^[27] ^[21] ^[25]

1W ATM IV move comparison

Change. Common recorded native interval and eligible cohort only.

BF25 change by tenor

BTC · 03 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · ETH · 03 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · SOL · 03 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: ^[29] ^[35] ^[41] ^[31] ^[37] ^[43] ^[33] ^[39] ^[45]

What to watch at the next cutoff

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next native cutoff	Observed condition	Comparison endpoints	Evidence
ETH · 1W rr25	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above -3.27 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below -3.27 vol pts and strictly above -3.87 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -3.87 vol pts (prior level).	03 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[20] ^[121] ^[19]
BTC · 1W rr25	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above -2.78 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below -2.78 vol pts and strictly above -3.73 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -3.73 vol pts (prior level).	03 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[18] ^[85] ^[17]
SOL · 1W rr25	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 2.31 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 2.31 vol pts and strictly above -1.49 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -1.49 vol pts (prior level).	03 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[22] ^[154] ^[21]

Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

Measure	Population	Observed pairs or levels	Requested window	Excluded pair or level endpoints
SOL 1W.atmIv.absolute_move^[10]	full captured history	54	2026-09-04T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00	2026-09-12T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-13T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

Bitcoin bounces from 7-week low under $76K as Democrats sweep Congress · Published 2026-11-04T07:25:47+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes