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\"\" DERIVASYS

Focused research note

ETH ATM curve returns to inversion

ETH’s ATM volatility curve returned to inversion as the 1W increase outpaced the 1M rise. The 1M-minus-1W spread reached -2.07 vol points [1], a change of -2.15 vol points [2]. This repricing puts greater implied volatility at the front of the curve, while opposing RR25 changes distinguish weekly downside asymmetry from monthly skew relief.

Derivasys Research

Report date08 Nov 2026
Current snapshot08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageETH
Comparison snapshot07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

ETH’s return to ATM inversion develops an interrupted curve story: earlier inversion gave way to near-flat positive readings before the latest negative spread. Over the latest daily comparison, the 1M-minus-1W spread moved from +0.08 vol points [3] to -2.07 vol points [1]. ATM means at-the-money implied volatility. ETH 1W ATM IV changed by +3.27 vol points [4] to 55.62% [5], while 1M ATM IV changed by +1.12 vol points [6] to 53.55% [7]. The stronger 1W increase explains the inversion and locates the steepest ATM repricing toward the front.

ETH’s smile changes distinguish weekly downside asymmetry from monthly relief. RR25 measures call-versus-put IV asymmetry: ETH 1W RR25 changed by -0.37 vol points [8], from -6.04 vol points [9] to -6.41 vol points [10], deepening an existing downside bias. ETH 1M RR25 instead changed by +0.74 vol points [11], from -4.06 vol points [12] to -3.32 vol points [13], remaining negative but becoming less put-biased. BF25, the average wing IV premium over ATM, also diverged by tenor: ETH 1W BF25 changed by +0.16 vol points [14] to 2.16 vol points [15], whereas 2W BF25 changed by -0.13 vol points [16] to 1.91 vol points [17] and 1M BF25 changed by -0.10 vol points [18] to 1.79 vol points [19]. These modest butterfly adjustments describe relative wing premiums, not absolute wing IV or a shared directional shift.

ETH spot changed by -0.43% [20] over the aligned daily comparison. Trailing realized volatility over the measured weekly window was 49.46% [21], calculated from canonical minute returns; forward 1W ATM IV exceeded that trailing measure by +6.16 vol points [22]. This places the ETH 1W implied repricing alongside a modest spot decline without establishing an unusually volatile realized regime or an options valuation edge. Current Gulf reporting from ZeroHedge relayed administrative-building damage and maritime incident claims. Such uncertainty offers a possible near-term risk channel relevant to ETH 1W volatility, but verified energy-supply disruption and an event-linked options response remain unestablished.

Qualifications and limits

  • ETH 2W ATM IV also changed by +2.23 vol points [23] over the same daily interval. The ATM increase therefore extends beyond 1W, qualifying any reading of an isolated weekly repricing.
  • Exact daily curve cutoffs establish endpoint changes, not intraday persistence or historical rarity. News publication and capture clocks differ from the options comparison and do not establish causation.
  • Forward implied volatility and trailing realized volatility cover different periods. The realized measure uses complete observed minute returns and calendar-day annualization; same-series recomputation does not independently validate the underlying prices.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
ETH · 1W55.62 %[5]3.27 vol pts[4]-6.41 vol pts[10]-0.37 vol pts[8]0.16 vol pts[14]
ETH · 2W54.33 %[24]2.23 vol pts[23]-5.17 vol pts[25]0.64 vol pts[26]-0.13 vol pts[16]
ETH · 1M53.55 %[7]1.12 vol pts[6]-3.32 vol pts[13]0.74 vol pts[11]-0.10 vol pts[18]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
ETH52.35 % [27]52.43 % [28]55.62 % [5]53.55 % [7]Upward sloping → Inverted
Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

AssetNative observation (UTC)1M minus 1W ATM IV
ETH2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00-2.07 vol pts [29]
ETH2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00+0.08 vol pts [30]
ETH2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00+0.08 vol pts [31]
ETH2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00-0.56 vol pts [32]

ETH RR25 curve

ETH RR25 curve-0.66 vol pts-2.10 vol pts-3.54 vol pts-4.97 vol pts-6.41 vol pts1W2W1M2M3M6M9M1Y1W · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -6.41 vol pts2W · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -5.17 vol pts1M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -3.32 vol pts2M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.82 vol pts3M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.32 vol pts6M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -1.24 vol pts9M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -0.66 vol pts1W · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -6.04 vol pts2W · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -5.81 vol pts1M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -4.06 vol pts2M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.84 vol pts3M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.55 vol pts6M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -1.43 vol pts9M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -0.79 vol pts
Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39]

ETH BF25 curve

ETH BF25 curve2.16 vol pts1.96 vol pts1.75 vol pts1.55 vol pts1.34 vol pts1W2W1M2M3M6M9M1Y1W · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 2.16 vol pts2W · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.91 vol pts1M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.79 vol pts2M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.76 vol pts3M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.67 vol pts6M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.49 vol pts9M · Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.34 vol pts1W · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 2.00 vol pts2W · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 2.04 vol pts1M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.89 vol pts2M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.80 vol pts3M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.73 vol pts6M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.59 vol pts9M · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.44 vol pts
Current · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor-0.20 vol pts0.00 vol pts0.20 vol pts1W1W · ETH · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.16 vol pts0.162W2W · ETH · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.13 vol pts-0.131M1M · ETH · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.10 vol pts-0.10
ETH · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [14] [16] [18]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
ETH · 1M 25-delta risk reversal09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above -3.32 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below -3.32 vol pts and strictly above -4.06 vol pts.
Prior level: at or below -4.06 vol pts (prior level).		07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[13] [12] [11]
ETH · 2W ATM implied volatility09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 54.33 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 54.33 % and strictly above 52.10 %.
Prior level: at or below 52.10 % (prior level).		07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[24] [55] [23]
ETH · 1M ATM implied volatility09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 53.55 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 53.55 % and strictly above 52.43 %.
Prior level: at or below 52.43 % (prior level).		07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[7] [28] [6]

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-2.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[2] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread difference

-2.15 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[3] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[4] ETH 1W ATM IV difference

3.27 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[5] ETH 1W ATM IV

55.62 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[6] ETH 1M ATM IV difference

1.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[7] ETH 1M ATM IV

53.55 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[8] ETH 1W RR25 difference

-0.37 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[9] ETH 1W RR25

-6.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[10] ETH 1W RR25

-6.41 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[11] ETH 1M RR25 difference

0.74 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[12] ETH 1M RR25

-4.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[13] ETH 1M RR25

-3.32 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[14] ETH 1W BF25 difference

0.16 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[15] ETH 1W BF25

2.16 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[16] ETH 2W BF25 difference

-0.13 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[17] ETH 2W BF25

1.91 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[18] ETH 1M BF25 difference

-0.10 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[19] ETH 1M BF25

1.79 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[20] ETH spotPrice percentage change

-0.43 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[21] ETH rv7d.recomputed

49.46 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[22] ETH 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

6.16 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[23] ETH 2W ATM IV difference

2.23 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[24] ETH 2W ATM IV

54.33 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[25] ETH 2W RR25

-5.17 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[26] ETH 2W RR25 difference

0.64 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[27] ETH 1W ATM IV

52.35 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[28] ETH 1M ATM IV

52.43 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[29] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-2.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[30] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[31] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[32] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.56 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[33] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[34] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[35] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[36] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[37] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[38] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[39] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[40] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[41] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[42] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[43] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[44] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[45] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[46] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[55] ETH 2W ATM IV

52.10 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

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