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\"\" DERIVASYS

Focused research note

ETH 1W butterfly premium widens

ETH options repriced toward greater near-term uncertainty and a deeper existing downside bias. The 1W ATM volatility increase of +5.32 vol points [1] accompanied a 1W BF25 widening of +0.81 vol points [2]. The adjustment extended through 2W and 1M, while longer butterfly premiums supplied a material qualification.

Derivasys Research

Report date05 Nov 2026
Current snapshot05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageETH
Comparison snapshot04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

ETH’s options adjustment was strongest at 1W but extended beyond that tenor. Over the crypto daily comparison, 1W ATM IV rose by +5.32 vol points [1] to 53.00% [3]; 2W ATM IV increased by +4.60 vol points [4], and 1M ATM IV increased by +3.53 vol points [5] to 52.44% [6]. Directional pricing also moved across tenors: 1W RR25 changed by -2.59 vol points [7], from -3.27 vol points [8] to -5.86 vol points [9]. Meanwhile, 1M RR25 changed by -1.10 vol points [10], from -3.12 vol points [11] to -4.22 vol points [12]. These negative-to-more-negative RR25 changes deepen an existing downside bias at 1W and 1M, consistent with greater relative demand for downside protection, although prices alone do not identify trading flows.

The 1W butterfly move adds a distinct relative-wing-premium signal. The 1W BF25 rose by +0.81 vol points [2] to 2.24 vol points [13]. Its absolute daily change ranked at 100th percentile [14] within the eligible rolling-window comparison, 30 observations (observed sampling; 06 Oct 2026–04 Nov 2026) [14]. That supports unusualness of the observed 1W BF25 move within this sample. Butterfly widening also extended to 2W, increasing by +0.37 vol points [15] to 1.88 vol points [16], and to 1M, increasing by +0.17 vol points [17] to 1.67 vol points [18]. BF25 measures average wing IV premium over ATM, so this identifies broader relative smile widening through 1M; the directional interpretation comes separately from RR25.

The 1W options response accompanied an ETH daily spot return of -7.17% [19]. Trailing weekly realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute log returns on a calendar-day annualization basis, was 55.48% [20]; forward 1W ATM IV minus that trailing measure was -2.48 vol points [21]. Thus, the 1W implied-volatility increase still left forward 1W IV below trailing realized volatility, a descriptive comparison across different periods. Broader markets offered a different earlier session picture: SPX changed by +1.58% [22] and VIX by -4.22 index points [23] between the preceding US session closes. Those closes ended before the crypto comparison ended, qualifying a simple synchronized risk-off explanation. Separately, CoinDesk reported Binance restricting SignalPlus access following a security warning during the crypto comparison interval. That supplies operational-risk chronology relevant to the downside-protection interpretation, without establishing the cause of ETH’s 1W or 1M repricing.

Qualifications and limits

  • The butterfly adjustment was not uniform across tenors: 2M BF25 changed by -0.14 vol points [24], while 3M BF25 changed by -0.07 vol points [25]. These declines oppose the widening through 1M and limit any claim of curve-wide relative wing repricing.
  • Historical ranking covers selected observed daily moves within the disclosed rolling window; gaps and selection can affect coverage. It does not establish population rarity or joint unusualness of ATM, RR25 and BF25 changes.
  • Crypto observations, US session closes and news publication times have different clocks. Their association cannot establish a common catalyst, policy surprise or causal transmission.
Further qualifications
  • Forward 1W IV and trailing realized volatility cover different periods; their spread establishes neither a volatility forecast nor a trading edge.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
ETH · 1W53.00 %[3]5.32 vol pts[1]-5.86 vol pts[9]-2.59 vol pts[7]0.81 vol pts[2]
ETH · 2W52.75 %[26]4.60 vol pts[4]-4.35 vol pts[27]-1.38 vol pts[28]0.37 vol pts[15]
ETH · 1M52.44 %[6]3.53 vol pts[5]-4.22 vol pts[12]-1.10 vol pts[10]0.17 vol pts[17]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
ETH47.68 % [29]48.91 % [30]53.00 % [3]52.44 % [6]Upward sloping → Inverted

ETH BF25 curve

ETH BF25 curve2.24 vol pts2.04 vol pts1.83 vol pts1.63 vol pts1.43 vol pts1W2W1M2M3M6M9M1Y1W · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 2.24 vol pts2W · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.88 vol pts1M · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.67 vol pts2M · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.48 vol pts3M · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.52 vol pts6M · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.62 vol pts9M · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.56 vol pts1W · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.43 vol pts2W · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.51 vol pts1M · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.50 vol pts2M · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.62 vol pts3M · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.59 vol pts6M · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.59 vol pts9M · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.47 vol pts
Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44]

ETH: size of daily changes in the 1-week butterfly premium (BF25)

ETH: size of daily changes in the 1-week butterfly premium (BF25)0.81 vol pts0.61 vol pts0.41 vol pts0.20 vol pts0.00 vol pts2026-10-14T17:31:00+00:00: 0.00 vol pts2026-10-20T17:31:00+00:00: 0.00 vol pts2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00: 0.01 vol pts2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00: 0.01 vol pts2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00: 0.02 vol pts2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00: 0.02 vol pts2026-10-13T17:31:00+00:00: 0.03 vol pts2026-10-06T17:31:00+00:00: 0.04 vol pts2026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00: 0.05 vol pts2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00: 0.05 vol pts2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00: 0.09 vol pts2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00: 0.10 vol pts2026-10-12T17:31:00+00:00: 0.12 vol pts2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00: 0.12 vol pts2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00: 0.13 vol pts2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00: 0.14 vol pts2026-10-17T17:31:00+00:00: 0.15 vol pts2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00: 0.16 vol pts2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00: 0.16 vol pts2026-10-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.19 vol pts2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00: 0.19 vol pts2026-10-21T17:31:00+00:00: 0.20 vol pts2026-10-16T17:31:00+00:00: 0.23 vol pts2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00: 0.29 vol pts2026-10-18T17:31:00+00:00: 0.34 vol pts2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00: 0.36 vol pts2026-10-19T17:31:00+00:00: 0.38 vol pts2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00: 0.40 vol pts2026-10-09T17:31:00+00:00: 0.42 vol pts2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00: 0.47 vol ptsCurrent statistic: 0.81 vol ptsSample rank (ordered by value)
Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 0.81 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. BF25 is the average implied volatility of the 25-delta call and put minus at-the-money implied volatility. n=30; 2026-10-06 to 2026-11-04; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

[14]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor-0.90 vol pts0.00 vol pts0.90 vol pts1W1W · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.81 vol pts0.812W2W · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.37 vol pts0.371M1M · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.17 vol pts0.17
ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [2] [15] [17]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
ETH · 1W ATM implied volatility06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 53.00 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 53.00 % and strictly above 47.68 %.
Prior level: at or below 47.68 % (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[3] [29] [1]
ETH · 1W 25-delta butterfly premium06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 2.24 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 2.24 vol pts and strictly above 1.43 vol pts.
Prior level: at or below 1.43 vol pts (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[13] [45] [2]
ETH · 2W ATM implied volatility06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above 52.75 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below 52.75 % and strictly above 48.15 %.
Prior level: at or below 48.15 % (prior level).		04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[26] [46] [4]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
ETH 1W.bf25.absolute_move[14]rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)302026-10-05T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00None

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] ETH 1W ATM IV difference

5.32 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[2] ETH 1W BF25 difference

0.81 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[3] ETH 1W ATM IV

53.00 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[4] ETH 2W ATM IV difference

4.60 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[5] ETH 1M ATM IV difference

3.53 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[6] ETH 1M ATM IV

52.44 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[7] ETH 1W RR25 difference

-2.59 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[8] ETH 1W RR25

-3.27 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[9] ETH 1W RR25

-5.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[10] ETH 1M RR25 difference

-1.10 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[11] ETH 1M RR25

-3.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[12] ETH 1M RR25

-4.22 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[13] ETH 1W BF25

2.24 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[14] ETH 1W BF25 absolute move percentile

100.00 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[15] ETH 2W BF25 difference

0.37 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[16] ETH 2W BF25

1.88 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[17] ETH 1M BF25 difference

0.17 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[18] ETH 1M BF25

1.67 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[19] ETH spotPrice percentage change

-7.17 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[20] ETH rv7d.recomputed

55.48 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[21] ETH 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-2.48 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[22] SPX close percentage change

1.58 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00

[23] VIX close difference

-4.22 index points

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00

[24] ETH 2M BF25 difference

-0.14 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[25] ETH 3M BF25 difference

-0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[26] ETH 2W ATM IV

52.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[27] ETH 2W RR25

-4.35 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[28] ETH 2W RR25 difference

-1.38 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[29] ETH 1W ATM IV

47.68 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[30] ETH 1M ATM IV

48.91 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[38] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[39] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[40] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[41] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[42] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[43] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[44] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[45] ETH 1W BF25

1.43 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

[46] ETH 2W ATM IV

48.15 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

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