[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference
1.68 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Focused research note
BTC 1W IV rises, with limited evidence of exceptional repricing
BTC protection repriced most clearly at 1W: ATM volatility rose and an existing downside skew deepened. Smaller ATM increases extended to 2W and 1M, while butterfly premiums barely changed. The observed history does not support treating the adjustment as exceptional, and spot and trailing realized volatility qualify the options signal.
Report date08 Nov 2026
Current snapshot08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageBTC
Comparison snapshot07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
The reading
What the evidence says
BTC 1W options show a firmer price of near-term protection, without compelling evidence of an exceptional move. Across the daily comparison, 1W at-the-money implied volatility changed by +1.68 vol points [1] to 40.36% [2]. The absolute change ranked at 65.4th percentile [3] within the supplied rolling-window comparison, 26 observations (observed sampling; 09 Oct 2026–07 Nov 2026) [3]. Meanwhile, 1W RR25, the call-versus-put IV asymmetry, changed by -1.01 vol points [4] from -3.43 vol points [5] to -4.44 vol points [6]. That deepened an existing downside bias; it did not introduce a new directional regime.
The ATM increase was strongest at 1W, but extended beyond that tenor: 2W ATM IV changed by +0.89 vol points [7], while 1M ATM IV changed by +0.65 vol points [8] to 38.47% [9]. The directional adjustment was also stronger at 1W: 1M RR25 changed by -0.09 vol points [10] to -3.63 vol points [11], retaining its downside bias with a much smaller daily adjustment. BF25, the average wing IV premium over ATM, offers little evidence of broad butterfly repricing. At 1W it changed by +0.04 vol points [12] to 1.22 vol points [13]; at 2W it changed by +0.01 vol points [14] to 1.14 vol points [15], and at 1M by -0.01 vol points [16] to 1.12 vol points [17]. These small relative-premium changes do not establish unchanged absolute wing IV.
The underlying market qualifies the protection narrative. BTC spot changed by -0.17% [18] across the same daily window. Trailing realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute prices over the weekly window, stood at 38.37% [19]. Forward 1W ATM IV exceeded that trailing measure by +1.99 vol points [20]. This supports describing a forward protection premium, but cannot establish expensive options or predict subsequent realized volatility.
Broader implied-volatility benchmarks add context without replacing the tenor-specific evidence. DerivaSys DS30, a model-free measure of implied volatility over a monthly horizon, stood at 43.71 vol points [21]; Bitfinex BVIV stood at 42.63 vol points [22], with BVIV minus DS30 at -1.08 vol points [23]. Their differing constructions do not establish a tradable discrepancy. Current Gulf reporting from ZeroHedge relays administrative-building damage and maritime incident claims. Such reports offer a possible near-term uncertainty channel relevant to 1W protection, but do not verify physical supply losses or explain why 1W ATM and RR25 moved more than their 1M counterparts.
Qualifications and limits
- Historical ranks describe selected observed moves, with missing dates and selection limiting representativeness; broader magnitude evidence remains incomplete, so the market cannot be classified as quiet or the adjustment as exceptional.
- Realized volatility uses adjacent minute returns without filling gaps; same-series recomputation does not independently validate prices. Forward 1W IV and trailing weekly realized volatility cover different periods.
- DS30 and BVIV use independently selected intraday observations, and DS30's historical ingestion time is unavailable. News publication and market observation clocks differ; chronology does not establish causation.
Verified market snapshot
| Asset · tenor | ATM IV | ATM IV change | RR25 | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 1W | 40.36 %[2] | 1.68 vol pts[1] | -4.44 vol pts[6] | -1.01 vol pts[4] | 0.04 vol pts[12] |
| BTC · 2W | 38.80 %[24] | 0.89 vol pts[7] | -4.31 vol pts[25] | -0.55 vol pts[26] | 0.01 vol pts[14] |
| BTC · 1M | 38.47 %[9] | 0.65 vol pts[8] | -3.63 vol pts[11] | -0.09 vol pts[10] | -0.01 vol pts[16] |
Weekly versus monthly curve
Recent ATM curve history
One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.
| Asset | Native observation (UTC) | 1M minus 1W ATM IV |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00 | -1.89 vol pts [29] |
| BTC | 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00 | -0.86 vol pts [30] |
| BTC | 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00 | -0.78 vol pts [31] |
| BTC | 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 | -2.29 vol pts [32] |
BTC RR25 curve
Figure sources: [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46]
BTC BF25 curve
Figure sources: [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53]
BF25 change by tenor
Figure evidence: [12] [14] [16]
What to watch next
| Story component | Next snapshot | Observed condition | Comparison period | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 1W ATM implied volatility | 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC | Current level: at or above 40.36 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 40.36 % and strictly above 38.68 %. Prior level: at or below 38.68 % (prior level). | 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC | [2] [27] [1] |
| BTC · 1W 25-delta risk reversal | 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC | Current level: at or below -4.44 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above -4.44 vol pts and strictly below -3.43 vol pts. Prior level: at or above -3.43 vol pts (prior level). | 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC | [6] [5] [4] |
| BTC · 1W 25-delta butterfly premium | 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC | Current level: at or above 1.22 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 1.22 vol pts and strictly above 1.18 vol pts. Prior level: at or below 1.18 vol pts (prior level). | 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC | [13] [54] [12] |
Historical sampling methodology
Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.
| Measure | Population | Observed pairs or levels | Requested window | Excluded pair or level endpoints |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 1W.atmIv.absolute_move[3] | rolling 30 calendar days (UTC) | 26 | 2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00 | 2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00 |
Source reporting
- Chaos In Riyadh: Aramco Skyscraper Hit By Missile Strike · Published 2026-11-08T12:27:30+00:00
- Chaos In Riyadh: Aramco Skyscraper Hit By Missile Strike · Published 2026-11-08T12:27:30+00:00
BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.
Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.
Source notes
[2] BTC 1W ATM IV
40.36 %
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[3] BTC 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile
65.38 percentile
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[4] BTC 1W RR25 difference
-1.01 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[5] BTC 1W RR25
-3.43 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[6] BTC 1W RR25
-4.44 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[7] BTC 2W ATM IV difference
0.89 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[8] BTC 1M ATM IV difference
0.65 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[9] BTC 1M ATM IV
38.47 %
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[10] BTC 1M RR25 difference
-0.09 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[11] BTC 1M RR25
-3.63 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[12] BTC 1W BF25 difference
0.04 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[13] BTC 1W BF25
1.22 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[14] BTC 2W BF25 difference
0.01 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[15] BTC 2W BF25
1.14 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[16] BTC 1M BF25 difference
-0.01 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[17] BTC 1M BF25
1.12 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[18] BTC spotPrice percentage change
-0.17 %
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[19] BTC rv7d.recomputed
38.37 %
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[20] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread
1.99 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[21] BTC btcVol.ds30
43.71 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[22] BTC btcVol.bviv
42.63 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[23] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30
-1.08 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[24] BTC 2W ATM IV
38.80 %
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[25] BTC 2W RR25
-4.31 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[26] BTC 2W RR25 difference
-0.55 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[27] BTC 1W ATM IV
38.68 %
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[28] BTC 1M ATM IV
37.82 %
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
[29] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread
-1.89 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00
[30] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread
-0.86 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00
[31] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread
-0.78 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00
[32] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread
-2.29 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00
[40] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[41] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[42] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[43] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[44] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[45] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[46] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[47] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[48] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[49] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[50] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[51] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[52] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[53] Source
Source type: options-observations
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00
Open cited source[54] BTC 1W BF25
1.18 vol pts
Source type: calculation
Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00