{"asset":"btc","cadence":"daily","dataArtifacts":{"dataCsv":{"bytes":10490,"mediaType":"text/csv","path":"/v1/research/btc/daily/2026-11-06/data/607328d5fcda667ecf39c566250fec38e1e393231479ef77d9f291310b88800d.csv","sha256":"607328d5fcda667ecf39c566250fec38e1e393231479ef77d9f291310b88800d"},"dataJson":{"bytes":330310,"mediaType":"application/json","path":"/v1/research/btc/daily/2026-11-06/data/6599dc2a8c608bda87371837e6f051383e9be33390f1ddb1519ea7804e0e0368.json","sha256":"6599dc2a8c608bda87371837e6f051383e9be33390f1ddb1519ea7804e0e0368"},"evidenceJson":{"bytes":1400521,"mediaType":"application/json","path":"/v1/research/btc/daily/2026-11-06/evidence/23bf6770bb94102c279be0a8168fd1c7154344592490ac388b7b364305b46062.json","sha256":"23bf6770bb94102c279be0a8168fd1c7154344592490ac388b7b364305b46062"},"schemaVersion":1},"html":"\n\nBTC ATM volatility eases most at 1W
\"\" DERIVASYS

Focused research note

BTC ATM volatility eases most at 1W

BTC ATM volatility eased most at 1W while longer tenors barely rose, pointing to a retreat in near-term uncertainty rather than uniform volatility relief. More negative 1W and 1M RR25 show that the easing coexisted with a deeper existing downside bias.

Derivasys Research

Report date06 Nov 2026
Current snapshot06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC
CoverageBTC
Comparison snapshot05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

BTC 1W at-the-money implied volatility changed by -1.96 vol points [1] to 38.75% [2] over the daily options comparison. The easing extended through the middle tenors: 2W ATM IV changed by -0.70 vol points [3] to 38.05% [4], and 1M changed by -0.45 vol points [5] to 37.97% [6]. Further out, 2M changed by -0.33 vol points [7] to 38.23% [8], while 3M changed by -0.26 vol points [9] to 38.50% [10]. This pattern supports a retreat in near-term uncertainty, strongest at 1W. The opposing 6M and 9M ATM changes were small: +0.03 vol points [11] and +0.05 vol points [12], respectively.

Lower BTC ATM volatility did not mean less downside asymmetry. RR25 measures call-versus-put IV asymmetry: 1W RR25 changed by -1.00 vol points [13] to -3.19 vol points [14], deepening an already negative reading. The matched 1M measure also changed by -0.66 vol points [15] to -3.09 vol points [16]. Thus the downside bias deepened at both 1W and 1M even as their ATM IV eased. Butterfly repricing also extended beyond 1W. BF25, the average wing IV premium over ATM, changed at 1W by -0.03 vol points [17] to 1.02 vol points [18]; at 2W by -0.06 vol points [19] to 1.09 vol points [20]; and at 1M by -0.13 vol points [21] to 0.95 vol points [22]. The larger 1M butterfly adjustment prevents describing smile repricing as confined to 1W.

The BTC 1W ATM adjustment was not exceptionally large within its supplied rolling-window history: its absolute-move percentile was 69.2nd percentile [23]. That magnitude comparison qualifies the prominence of the 1W move without changing its direction. Butterfly compression also reached the middle tenors: 2M BF25 changed by -0.11 vol points [24], while 3M BF25 changed by -0.06 vol points [25]. Alongside the matched 1M adjustment, these observations support broader narrowing of butterfly premiums rather than a purely 1W change. They describe symmetric wing premiums relative to ATM; the directional conclusion comes from RR25.

BTC spot changed by -0.22% [26] over the daily crypto window. Trailing realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute returns on a calendar-year annualization basis, was 39.29% [27]; forward 1W ATM IV minus trailing realized volatility was -0.54 vol points [28]. This places the eased 1W implied level slightly below the trailing realized measure, without establishing a trading edge. The broader BTC implied benchmarks remained distinct: DerivaSys DS30 was 42.14 vol points [29], Bitfinex BVIV was 41.49 vol points [30], and BVIV minus DS30 was -0.65 vol points [31]. Their different methodologies and independently selected observations prevent treating either as interchangeable with 1W ATM IV. Across the earlier matched equity sessions, SPX changed by -4.36% [32] and VIX by +11.57 index points [33]. That equity stress contrasts with subsequent BTC 1W ATM easing. During the crypto comparison, the Guardian reported hiring resilience alongside a subdued hiring backdrop and tightening expectations. Such policy uncertainty makes the deeper BTC 1W and 1M downside asymmetry relevant, but does not identify the cause of their repricing.

Qualifications and limits

  • Historical percentiles describe source-selected observed changes within their own rolling windows, with gaps retained and no filling; they do not measure population rarity or the significance of the combined ATM, RR25 and BF25 pattern.
  • The equity comparison runs between the prior matched market sessions and ends before the crypto options cutoff; it is not synchronized with the daily crypto window. DS30 historical ingestion timing is unavailable, and DS30 and BVIV are independently selected intraday observations. News chronology does not establish causation or positioning.
  • Forward 1W IV and trailing realized volatility cover different periods. The realized measure uses squared minute log returns with complete observed coverage under its source policy; the IV-minus-RV spread is descriptive, not a forecast or evidence of rich or cheap options.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
BTC · 1W38.75 %[2]-1.96 vol pts[1]-3.19 vol pts[14]-1.00 vol pts[13]-0.03 vol pts[17]
BTC · 2W38.05 %[4]-0.70 vol pts[3]-3.55 vol pts[34]-0.99 vol pts[35]-0.06 vol pts[19]
BTC · 1M37.97 %[6]-0.45 vol pts[5]-3.09 vol pts[16]-0.66 vol pts[15]-0.13 vol pts[21]
BTC · 2M38.23 %[8]-0.33 vol pts[7]-3.11 vol pts[36]-0.54 vol pts[37]-0.11 vol pts[24]
BTC · 3M38.50 %[10]-0.26 vol pts[9]-3.11 vol pts[38]-0.73 vol pts[39]-0.06 vol pts[25]
BTC · 6M39.35 %[40]0.03 vol pts[11]-2.51 vol pts[41]-0.42 vol pts[42]-0.05 vol pts[43]
BTC · 9M39.69 %[44]0.05 vol pts[12]-2.08 vol pts[45]-0.33 vol pts[46]-0.03 vol pts[47]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
BTC40.71 % [48]38.42 % [49]38.75 % [2]37.97 % [6]Remained inverted

BTC: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility

BTC: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility6.08 vol pts4.56 vol pts3.04 vol pts1.52 vol pts0.00 vol pts2026-10-12T17:31:00+00:00: 0.00 vol pts2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00: 0.07 vol pts2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00: 0.09 vol pts2026-10-13T17:31:00+00:00: 0.10 vol pts2026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00: 0.17 vol pts2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00: 0.19 vol pts2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00: 0.30 vol pts2026-10-21T17:31:00+00:00: 0.31 vol pts2026-10-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.68 vol pts2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00: 0.76 vol pts2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00: 0.77 vol pts2026-10-17T17:31:00+00:00: 0.99 vol pts2026-10-14T17:31:00+00:00: 1.12 vol pts2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00: 1.12 vol pts2026-10-20T17:31:00+00:00: 1.30 vol pts2026-10-19T17:31:00+00:00: 1.55 vol pts2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00: 1.59 vol pts2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00: 1.70 vol pts2026-10-16T17:31:00+00:00: 2.28 vol pts2026-10-18T17:31:00+00:00: 2.79 vol pts2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00: 4.14 vol pts2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00: 4.85 vol pts2026-10-09T17:31:00+00:00: 5.17 vol pts2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00: 5.21 vol pts2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00: 5.83 vol pts2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00: 6.08 vol ptsCurrent statistic: 1.96 vol ptsSample rank (ordered by value)
Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 1.96 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. n=26; 2026-10-07 to 2026-11-05; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

[23]

BTC RR25 curve

BTC RR25 curve-1.75 vol pts-2.20 vol pts-2.65 vol pts-3.10 vol pts-3.55 vol pts1W2W1M2M3M6M9M1Y1W · Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -3.19 vol pts2W · Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -3.55 vol pts1M · Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -3.09 vol pts2M · Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -3.11 vol pts3M · Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -3.11 vol pts6M · Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.51 vol pts9M · Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.08 vol pts1W · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.19 vol pts2W · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.56 vol pts1M · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.43 vol pts2M · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.57 vol pts3M · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.38 vol pts6M · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -2.09 vol pts9M · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: -1.75 vol pts
Current · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor-0.20 vol pts0.00 vol pts0.20 vol pts1W1W · BTC · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.03 vol pts-0.032W2W · BTC · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.06 vol pts-0.061M1M · BTC · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.13 vol pts-0.13
BTC · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [17] [19] [21]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
BTC · 1W ATM implied volatility07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below 38.75 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above 38.75 % and strictly below 40.71 %.
Prior level: at or above 40.71 % (prior level).		05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[2] [48] [1]
BTC · 2W ATM implied volatility07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below 38.05 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above 38.05 % and strictly below 38.75 %.
Prior level: at or above 38.75 % (prior level).		05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[4] [66] [3]
BTC · 1M ATM implied volatility07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below 37.97 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above 37.97 % and strictly below 38.42 %.
Prior level: at or above 38.42 % (prior level).		05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[6] [49] [5]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
BTC 1W.atmIv.absolute_move[23]rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)262026-10-06T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:002026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

-1.96 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV

38.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[3] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

-0.70 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[4] BTC 2W ATM IV

38.05 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[5] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

-0.45 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[6] BTC 1M ATM IV

37.97 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[7] BTC 2M ATM IV difference

-0.33 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[8] BTC 2M ATM IV

38.23 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[9] BTC 3M ATM IV difference

-0.26 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[10] BTC 3M ATM IV

38.50 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[11] BTC 6M ATM IV difference

0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[12] BTC 9M ATM IV difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[13] BTC 1W RR25 difference

-1.00 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[14] BTC 1W RR25

-3.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[15] BTC 1M RR25 difference

-0.66 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[16] BTC 1M RR25

-3.09 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[17] BTC 1W BF25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[18] BTC 1W BF25

1.02 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[19] BTC 2W BF25 difference

-0.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[20] BTC 2W BF25

1.09 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[21] BTC 1M BF25 difference

-0.13 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[22] BTC 1M BF25

0.95 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[23] BTC 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile

69.23 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[24] BTC 2M BF25 difference

-0.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[25] BTC 3M BF25 difference

-0.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[26] BTC spotPrice percentage change

-0.22 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[27] BTC rv7d.recomputed

39.29 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[28] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-0.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[29] BTC btcVol.ds30

42.14 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[30] BTC btcVol.bviv

41.49 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[31] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

-0.65 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[32] SPX close percentage change

-4.36 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T19:00:27.446810+00:00

[33] VIX close difference

11.57 index points

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T19:00:27.446810+00:00

[34] BTC 2W RR25

-3.55 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[35] BTC 2W RR25 difference

-0.99 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[36] BTC 2M RR25

-3.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[37] BTC 2M RR25 difference

-0.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[38] BTC 3M RR25

-3.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[39] BTC 3M RR25 difference

-0.73 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[40] BTC 6M ATM IV

39.35 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[41] BTC 6M RR25

-2.51 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[42] BTC 6M RR25 difference

-0.42 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[43] BTC 6M BF25 difference

-0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[44] BTC 9M ATM IV

39.69 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[45] BTC 9M RR25

-2.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[46] BTC 9M RR25 difference

-0.33 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[47] BTC 9M BF25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[48] BTC 1W ATM IV

40.71 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[49] BTC 1M ATM IV

38.42 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[57] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[58] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[59] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[60] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[61] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[62] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[63] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[66] BTC 2W ATM IV

38.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

","provenance":{"canonicalReportSha256":"a37081c00640c45b07d9abff617ca2e75610d87e3e9fb6a1048d80d76e8d9a16","presentationSha256":"f43fddb1d600fa323aa8dfb29203dd522ae1f379dd07fd8e77f1d35f11cf0de2","reviewedReportSha256":"a37081c00640c45b07d9abff617ca2e75610d87e3e9fb6a1048d80d76e8d9a16","sourceHtmlSha256":"7e2ce3072824e07db1908e8338de15de5fe1b226f4c07903d94a6939e0baabe6","sourceJournalSha256":"12881371b06a9ceb875ee3701b027a34774bf7ba1847cffe62a7d21cbb93d46a"},"reportDate":"2026-11-06","schemaVersion":1,"snapshotUtc":"2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00","summary":"BTC ATM volatility eased most at 1W while longer tenors barely rose, pointing to a retreat in near-term uncertainty rather than uniform volatility relief. More negative 1W and 1M RR25 show that the easing coexisted with a deeper existing downside bias.","title":"BTC ATM volatility eases most at 1W"}