HYPE ATM volatility falls as BF25 premiums widen

HYPE's 1W ATM volatility changed by -5.69 vol points ^[1] while its 1W BF25 rose by +0.57 vol points ^[2]. Lower central volatility pricing therefore coexists with a larger relative wing premium. Matched 1M ATM declines across the altcoin cohort support broader compression, but XRP's opposing 1W ATM move prevents a uniform front-end interpretation.

Derivasys Research

Report date05 Nov 2026

Current snapshot05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

CoverageXRP, HYPE, AVAX, TRX

Comparison snapshot04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC

The reading

What the evidence says

HYPE's ATM compression accompanies widening butterfly premiums across the comparable tenors. Its 1W ATM IV ended at 61.15% ^[3], while 1W BF25 reached 1.44 vol points ^[4]. HYPE's 2W BF25 rose by +0.26 vol points ^[5] to 1.34 vol points ^[6], and 1M BF25 rose by +0.24 vol points ^[7] to 1.56 vol points ^[8]. BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM; these increases do not establish higher absolute wing IV. HYPE's ordered ATM endpoints remain inverted: 1W exceeds 2W at 60.78% ^[9], which exceeds 1M at 58.36% ^[10]. Its 2W ATM change of -3.95 vol points ^[11] and 1M change of -4.35 vol points ^[12] show compression beyond 1W. HYPE's absolute daily 1M ATM move ranks at 100th percentile ^[13] in the rolling-window comparison, 30 observations (observed sampling; 06 Oct 2026–04 Nov 2026) ^[13]. That rank describes the ATM move alone.

Matched 1M ATM comparisons support broader compression while revealing different magnitudes. XRP's 1M ATM IV changed by -5.24 vol points ^[14] to 49.71% ^[15], TRX's by -5.37 vol points ^[16] to 21.87% ^[17], and AVAX's by -1.27 vol points ^[18] to 66.84% ^[19]. AVAX's smaller 1M decline qualifies the strength of this relationship without reversing its direction. At 1W, AVAX ATM IV changed by -2.98 vol points ^[20] to 64.59% ^[21], and TRX by -5.23 vol points ^[22] to 25.73% ^[23]. XRP instead paired its 1M decline with a 2W ATM change of -3.65 vol points ^[24] and an opposing 1W increase. Separately, CoinDesk reported an XRP Ledger bug fix during the news window. That chronology does not establish an explanation for XRP's tenor divergence.

RR25 and BF25 show why the ATM pattern cannot summarize the smile. HYPE's already negative 1W RR25 changed by -0.71 vol points ^[25] to -0.83 vol points ^[26], deepening its existing downside bias; its positive 1M RR25 changed by -0.10 vol points ^[27] to 3.06 vol points ^[28]. XRP's 1W RR25 changed by -4.01 vol points ^[29] to 1.47 vol points ^[30], while its 1M RR25 rose by +1.99 vol points ^[31] to 4.23 vol points ^[32]. AVAX paired a 1W RR25 change of -1.07 vol points ^[33] to 2.08 vol points ^[34] with a 1M increase of +0.55 vol points ^[35] to 4.56 vol points ^[36]. TRX's negative 1W RR25 deepened, changing by -3.94 vol points ^[37] to -4.64 vol points ^[38], whereas its 1M RR25 crossed from negative to positive, changing by +3.14 vol points ^[39] to 2.85 vol points ^[40]. Butterfly adjustments also differ by tenor: XRP's 1W BF25 changed by -0.10 vol points ^[41] to 1.41 vol points ^[42], but its 2W BF25 rose by +0.16 vol points ^[43] to 2.03 vol points ^[44]; its 1M butterfly premium narrowed. AVAX butterfly premiums narrowed across 1W, 2W and 1M, with the 2W change at -0.28 vol points ^[45] to 1.93 vol points ^[46]. TRX butterfly premiums widened across those tenors, although its 1W increase of +1.02 vol points ^[47] to 2.74 vol points ^[48] contrasts with a smaller 2W change of +0.08 vol points ^[49] to 1.87 vol points ^[50]. XRP's localized 1W ATM increase thus coexists with RR25 adjustment extending to 1M and a separate middle-tenor BF25 increase.

Spot losses across the daily crypto interval sharpen the distinction in 1W ATM pricing. HYPE spot changed by -6.93% ^[51], AVAX by -6.70% ^[52], XRP by -5.43% ^[53], and TRX by -1.25% ^[54]; only XRP paired that decline with rising 1W ATM IV. On the trailing weekly realized-volatility measure, annualized under the recorded source convention, HYPE registered 92.14% ^[55], AVAX 77.20% ^[56], XRP 58.51% ^[57], and TRX 82.01% ^[58]. Their respective spreads of forward 1W ATM IV minus that trailing weekly RV were -30.99 vol points ^[59], -12.61 vol points ^[60], -3.23 vol points ^[61], and -56.28 vol points ^[62]. Forward 1W ATM pricing therefore sits below measured trailing volatility across the cohort, including XRP despite its 1W ATM increase. This provides context for the repricing without establishing a realized-volatility regime or an options valuation edge.

Qualifications and limits

XRP weakens a cohort-wide 1W ATM compression interpretation: its 1W ATM IV rose by +1.99 vol points ^[63] to 55.28% ^[64], confining its ATM increase to 1W among the comparable tenors.
Historical ranks describe eligible observed daily changes within their disclosed sample bounds. Missing dates and selection can affect the ranks; they do not establish joint rarity across assets or smile measures. Native observation clocks remain distinct.
Forward implied volatility and trailing realized volatility cover different periods. Their spread is descriptive and establishes neither a forecast nor a trading edge; relative butterfly premiums do not establish absolute wing IV.

Further qualifications

News chronology and quote changes do not identify a catalyst, positioning or demand. Human review remains required.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
AVAX · 1W	64.59 %^[21]	-2.98 vol pts^[20]	2.08 vol pts^[34]	-1.07 vol pts^[33]	-0.25 vol pts^[65]
AVAX · 2W	65.74 %^[66]	-1.98 vol pts^[67]	4.48 vol pts^[68]	1.02 vol pts^[69]	-0.28 vol pts^[45]
AVAX · 1M	66.84 %^[19]	-1.27 vol pts^[18]	4.56 vol pts^[36]	0.55 vol pts^[35]	-0.62 vol pts^[70]
HYPE · 1W	61.15 %^[3]	-5.69 vol pts^[1]	-0.83 vol pts^[26]	-0.71 vol pts^[25]	0.57 vol pts^[2]
HYPE · 2W	60.78 %^[9]	-3.95 vol pts^[11]	1.25 vol pts^[71]	-0.66 vol pts^[72]	0.26 vol pts^[5]
HYPE · 1M	58.36 %^[10]	-4.35 vol pts^[12]	3.06 vol pts^[28]	-0.10 vol pts^[27]	0.24 vol pts^[7]
TRX · 1W	25.73 %^[23]	-5.23 vol pts^[22]	-4.64 vol pts^[38]	-3.94 vol pts^[37]	1.02 vol pts^[47]
TRX · 2W	23.10 %^[73]	-5.71 vol pts^[74]	0.06 vol pts^[75]	0.63 vol pts^[76]	0.08 vol pts^[49]
TRX · 1M	21.87 %^[17]	-5.37 vol pts^[16]	2.85 vol pts^[40]	3.14 vol pts^[39]	0.34 vol pts^[77]
XRP · 1W	55.28 %^[64]	1.99 vol pts^[63]	1.47 vol pts^[30]	-4.01 vol pts^[29]	-0.10 vol pts^[41]
XRP · 2W	50.59 %^[78]	-3.65 vol pts^[24]	1.19 vol pts^[79]	-1.74 vol pts^[80]	0.16 vol pts^[43]
XRP · 1M	49.71 %^[15]	-5.24 vol pts^[14]	4.23 vol pts^[32]	1.99 vol pts^[31]	-0.05 vol pts^[81]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
XRP	53.29 % ^[82]	54.95 % ^[83]	55.28 % ^[64]	49.71 % ^[15]	Upward sloping → Inverted
HYPE	66.84 % ^[84]	62.71 % ^[85]	61.15 % ^[3]	58.36 % ^[10]	Remained inverted
AVAX	67.57 % ^[86]	68.11 % ^[87]	64.59 % ^[21]	66.84 % ^[19]	Remained upward sloping
TRX	30.96 % ^[88]	27.24 % ^[89]	25.73 % ^[23]	21.87 % ^[17]	Remained inverted

1W ATM IV move comparison

Change. Common recorded native interval and eligible cohort only.

HYPE: size of daily changes in the 1-month at-the-money implied volatility

Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 4.35 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. n=30; 2026-10-06 to 2026-11-04; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

^[13]

BF25 change by tenor

XRP · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · HYPE · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · AVAX · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · TRX · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: ^[41] ^[43] ^[81] ^[2] ^[5] ^[7] ^[65] ^[45] ^[70] ^[47] ^[49] ^[77]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next snapshot	Observed condition	Comparison period	Evidence
XRP · 1W ATM implied volatility	06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 55.28 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 55.28 % and strictly above 53.29 %. Prior level: at or below 53.29 % (prior level).	04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[64] ^[82] ^[63]
TRX · 1W ATM implied volatility	06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below 25.73 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above 25.73 % and strictly below 30.96 %. Prior level: at or above 30.96 % (prior level).	04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[23] ^[88] ^[22]
XRP · 1M ATM implied volatility	06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below 49.71 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above 49.71 % and strictly below 54.95 %. Prior level: at or above 54.95 % (prior level).	04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[15] ^[83] ^[14]

Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

Measure	Population	Observed pairs or levels	Requested window	Excluded pair or level endpoints
HYPE 1M.atmIv.absolute_move^[13]	rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)	30	2026-10-05T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00	None

Source reporting

XRP Ledger fixes a disclosed bug that could have led to the creation of new tokens · Published 2026-11-05T05:25:06+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes