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options show lower 1m BF25 butterfly","executiveSummary":"The 1M BF25 butterfly change for ETH was -0.26 volatility points over the stored comparison.","evidenceIds":["bf25","front-atm","rr25","largest-standard-tenor"],"newsSummary":"CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “FBI confirms North Korea's role in […] billion Binance hack, asks DeFi community to block BTC, ETH, SOL addresses”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":["27fd5298-d680-489a-b2f8-92cea84b75e6"],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 54.10%, 2.53 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 51.57%; 24-hour realised volatility was 22.61% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.14%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.50 volatility points to 52.66% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.20 volatility points to 52.68% across 6M and 1Y."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.51 volatility points to -4.87% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 decreased, averaging -0.11 volatility points to 1.78% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.82 volatility points at 2W, to 52.40%.","tenor":"2W","value":-0.82},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"ETH spot-index return was +0.87% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"ETH spot-index return was -3.74% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"eth-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change","label":"1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime","text":"ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -2.03 to -2.62 volatility points (-0.59 points). 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IV","dailyWindowHours":{"minimum":23,"maximum":25},"samplingClockToleranceSeconds":0,"minimumHistoryObservations":20,"crossingDefinition":"strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative","zeroHandling":"an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing","rarityBasis":"absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors","causality":"not assessed","materialDeadbandVolPoints":0.5,"materialCrossingDefinition":"both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included","materialPolicyStatus":"provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim"},"statement":"ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -2.03 to -2.62 volatility points (-0.59 points). 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This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.","events":[{"eventId":"27fd5298-d680-489a-b2f8-92cea84b75e6","title":"FBI confirms North Korea's role in $6 billion Binance hack, asks DeFi community to block BTC, ETH, SOL addresses","publisher":"CoinDesk","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/31/fbi-confirms-north-korea-s-role-in-usd6-billion-binance-hack-asks-defi-community-to-block-btc-eth-sol-addresses","publishedAt":"2026-11-01T01:10:05+00:00"}]}}]},"newsStatus":"context","headline":"Ether options show lower 1m BF25 butterfly","standfirst":"ETH 1M BF25 butterfly is 1.74 percent, compared with 2.00 percent at the prior cutoff.","leadChart":{"asset":"ETH","metric":"bf25","eventType":"bf25","label":"1M","current":1.74,"previous":2.0,"change":-0.26,"currentSnapshotAt":"2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00","previousSnapshotAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","evidenceRef":"summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","provenance":{"kind":"report-event","candidateId":"eth-largestBf25Move","candidateSource":"summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","eventRef":"events[type=bf25,label=1M]","valuesRef":"tenors[tenor=1M].bf25"},"event":{"type":"bf25","title":"Largest standard-tenor BF25 move","label":"1M","value":-0.26}},"crossAssetMarketContext":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"market-context-mcp","status":"available","asset":"ETH","sessionDate":"2026-10-30","asOfTimestamp":"2026-10-30T20:00:00+00:00","summary":"Previous session (latest completed): ETH cross-asset context for 2026-10-30 The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 28.01 points, at the 17.8 percentile across 264 prior observations. 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IV","dailyWindowHours":{"minimum":23,"maximum":25},"samplingClockToleranceSeconds":0,"minimumHistoryObservations":20,"crossingDefinition":"strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative","zeroHandling":"an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing","rarityBasis":"absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors","causality":"not assessed","materialDeadbandVolPoints":0.5,"materialCrossingDefinition":"both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included","materialPolicyStatus":"provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim"},"statement":"ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -2.03 to -2.62 volatility points (-0.59 points). 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