{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-18", "generatedAt": "2026-10-18T17:02:31+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 698302, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 688234, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "ETH", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 57, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -1.64, "rv24hPercent": 42.24, "rv7dPercent": 52.42, "rv30dPercent": 44.54, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "ETH", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "cdb4c6741a7f88a3e1cf7c1109f9fec630b247ed94c099c9b201e66ac567825b", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 2098.52, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-20T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 2319.78, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-21T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 2399.13, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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"1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points", "executiveSummary": "Ether's 1W call-minus-put RR25 fell 2.71 volatility points to -7.46 volatility points, indicating a relative shift toward put-side volatility without establishing an absolute increase in put IV. The 1W ATM implied volatility level was 0.71 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 52.42%; that gap alone does not establish whether options are cheap or expensive.", "evidenceIds": [ "largest-standard-tenor", "eth-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "realised-vol", "spot-index-24h" ], "newsSummary": "In provisional, single-source reporting, The Block said Cysic suspended its bridge after unauthorized token minting and that an attacker moved proceeds to Ethereum through Mayan, deBridge and SWFT's Bridgers. The report provides Ethereum activity context, but no clear measured link connects the incident to Ether's options repricing.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "dd0d3c9e-d0dd-4df6-9276-fd7115e5a263" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 53.13%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 52.42%; 24-hour realised volatility was 42.24% and 30-day realised volatility was 44.54%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +4.63 volatility points to 52.28% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.41 volatility points to 52.35% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.29 volatility points to -3.88% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.18 volatility points to 3.40% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +7.13 volatility points at 1W, to 53.13%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 7.13 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -1.64% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -6.98% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "eth-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.07 to -1.75 volatility points (-4.82 points). It crossed zero from positive to negative." } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "ETH", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "completedScopes": [ "ETH", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "ETH" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 2, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "5d9ede84449ed71c4d7d9524804ecf1ce0f0a821e15a878a3d086de602370c63" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": 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The increase exceeded the 1M ATM IV rise of 2.31 volatility points, pushing weekly implied volatility above monthly volatility. 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validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1\",\"historicalBonus\":0.0,\"historicalMagnitudeScale\":1.0,\"magnitudeScale\":1.0,\"magnitudeScore\":25.634,\"normalizedMagnitude\":12.817,\"rarity\":{\"magnitudeIndependent\":false,\"percentile\":null,\"policyVersion\":1,\"tail\":\"none\",\"tailDistance\":0.0},\"selectionAdjustment\":-26.634,\"selectionScore\":-1.0,\"totalScore\":25.634,\"unit\":\"volatility points\",\"version\":3},\"selectionReason\":\"expiry-specific-fit-quality-and-matching-rotation-history-unavailable\",\"selectionScore\":-1.0,\"source\":\"surfaceEvents[rotation]\",\"story\":\"ETH 21OCT26 smile rotation moved lower by 12.82\",\"tenor\":null}],\"chosenStoryId\":\"eth-largestAtmMove\",\"nativeFacts\":{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"comparison_status\":null,\"current_snapshot_at\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previous_snapshot_at\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"report_date\":\"2026-10-18\",\"source_snapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698302,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688234,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":7.13,\"current\":53.13,\"percentChange\":15.5,\"previous\":46.0},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":0.81,\"current\":3.8,\"percentChange\":27.09,\"previous\":2.99},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-2.71,\"current\":-7.46,\"percentChange\":-57.05,\"previous\":-4.75},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":4.44,\"current\":52.32,\"percentChange\":9.27,\"previous\":47.88},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":0.49,\"current\":3.51,\"percentChange\":16.23,\"previous\":3.02},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-2.19,\"current\":-5.51,\"percentChange\":-65.96,\"previous\":-3.32},\"tenor\":\"2W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.31,\"current\":51.38,\"percentChange\":4.71,\"previous\":49.07},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":0.09,\"current\":3.38,\"percentChange\":2.74,\"previous\":3.29},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-1.15,\"current\":-3.9,\"percentChange\":-41.82,\"previous\":-2.75},\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.92,\"current\":51.51,\"percentChange\":1.82,\"previous\":50.59},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.12,\"current\":3.28,\"percentChange\":-3.53,\"previous\":3.4},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-0.32,\"current\":-1.8,\"percentChange\":-21.62,\"previous\":-1.48},\"tenor\":\"3M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.41,\"current\":52.35,\"percentChange\":0.79,\"previous\":51.94},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.36,\"current\":3.01,\"percentChange\":-10.68,\"previous\":3.37},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-0.08,\"current\":-0.73,\"percentChange\":-12.31,\"previous\":-0.65},\"tenor\":\"6M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.15,\"current\":52.98,\"percentChange\":0.28,\"previous\":52.83},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.3,\"current\":2.78,\"percentChange\":-9.74,\"previous\":3.08},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-0.3,\"current\":-0.08,\"percentChange\":-136.36,\"previous\":0.22},\"tenor\":\"9M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"availability\":\"unavailable\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"rr25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"tenor\":\"1Y\",\"unavailableReason\":\"The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.\"}],\"window_hours\":24.0}}" }, "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-4cacd6dbf0f4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "dd0d3c9e-d0dd-4df6-9276-fd7115e5a263", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Cysic suspends bridge after attacker mints tokens and moves $727,000 to Ethereum", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-10-18-cysic-suspends-bridge-after-attacker-mints-tokens-and-moves-727000-to-ethereum-418863", "publishedAt": "2026-10-18T16:07:43+00:00", "summary": "The attacker, after minting 10 million CYS, managed to bridge about $727,000 in proceeds to Ethereum through Mayan, deBridge and SWFT's Bridgers.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Ethereum The" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "dd0d3c9e-d0dd-4df6-9276-fd7115e5a263", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-4cacd6dbf0f4" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market event", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-4cacd6dbf0f4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "dd0d3c9e-d0dd-4df6-9276-fd7115e5a263", "sourceId": "the_block", "publisher": "The Block", "title": "Cysic suspends bridge after attacker mints tokens and moves $727,000 to Ethereum", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-10-18-cysic-suspends-bridge-after-attacker-mints-tokens-and-moves-727000-to-ethereum-418863", "publishedAt": "2026-10-18T16:07:43+00:00", "summary": "The attacker, after minting 10 million CYS, managed to bridge about $727,000 in proceeds to Ethereum through Mayan, deBridge and SWFT's Bridgers.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Ethereum The" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 34, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.5851, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.5851, "catalystScore": 0.0726, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0726, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "dd0d3c9e-d0dd-4df6-9276-fd7115e5a263", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -43.29 USD (-1.80%) to 2362.29 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-4cacd6dbf0f4" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1W ATM IV rose 7.13 volatility points to 53.13%, a large move at the 93rd percentile among 43 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 42.24% over 24 hours, 52.42% over seven days and 44.54% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 52.28%, +4.63 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 52.35%, +0.41 points. 1W RR25 moved 2.71 volatility points toward puts to -7.46%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.81 volatility points to 3.80%. 24-hour spot-index: -1.64%; nearest eligible forward 21OCT26: -1.80% to $2,362.29. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 106, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 53.13%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 52.42%; 24-hour realised volatility was 42.24% and 30-day realised volatility was 44.54%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +4.63 volatility points to 52.28% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.41 volatility points to 52.35% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.29 volatility points to -3.88% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.18 volatility points to 3.40% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +7.13 volatility points at 1W, to 53.13%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 7.13 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -1.64% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -6.98% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 3.04, "rr25Change": -1.29, "bf25Change": 0.18, "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "current": 53.13, "previous": 46.0, "change": 7.13, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 7.13, "currentLevel": 53.13, "movePercentile30d": 91.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 93.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 97.9, "classificationPercentile": 93.0, "label": "large", "observations30d": 24, "observationsFullHistory": 43, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 47, "provenance": { "schemaVersion": 2, "reportDate": "2026-10-18", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "eligibilityPolicy": "known native timestamps; end <= current start; matching UTC endpoint clocks and supported horizon", "sourceEndpoints": [ { "date": "2026-08-29", "snapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", 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ly_40\":0.33},\"has_lower_expiry\":true,\"has_upper_expiry\":true,\"is_extrapolated\":false,\"label\":\"1W\",\"risk_reversal_nodes_json\":{\"10C\":{\"delta\":0.1000000081180148,\"delta_error\":8.11801478817209e-09,\"label\":\"10C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0737310606056238,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2628.77941123903,\"target_delta\":0.1,\"vol\":41.02},\"10P\":{\"delta\":-0.09999999826167749,\"delta_error\":1.73832251371131e-09,\"label\":\"10P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.08444029689836814,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2244.1981339884564,\"target_delta\":-0.1,\"vol\":49.25},\"15C\":{\"delta\":0.1500000043055936,\"delta_error\":4.305593603870506e-09,\"label\":\"15C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.05864307730218689,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2589.41414936075,\"target_delta\":0.15,\"vol\":40.16},\"15P\":{\"delta\":-0.14999999865240937,\"delta_error\":1.3475906224247325e-09,\"label\":\"15P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.06387832368702438,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2290.820961924367,\"target_delta\":-0.15,\"vol\":46.29},\"20C\":{\"delta\":0.2000000013869753,\"delta_error\":1.3869752846229488e-09,\"label\":\"20C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.047401520520551646,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2560.4681072888898,\"target_delta\":0.2,\"vol\":39.73},\"20P\":{\"delta\":-0.20000000670606835,\"delta_error\":-6.706068339523696e-09,\"label\":\"20P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.049537816123968896,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2323.909181135526,\"target_delta\":-0.2,\"vol\":44.48},\"25C\":{\"delta\":0.2499999931600675,\"delta_error\":-6.839932509272728e-09,\"label\":\"25C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.03810068865713269,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2536.764028633839,\"target_delta\":0.25,\"vol\":39.55},\"25P\":{\"delta\":-0.2500000060552245,\"delta_error\":-6.0552244884881645e-09,\"label\":\"25P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.03825814100724466,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2350.2705158472927,\"target_delta\":-0.25,\"vol\":43.22},\"30C\":{\"delta\":0.2999999965496388,\"delta_error\":-3.4503611634484344e-09,\"label\":\"30C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.02991809281963411,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2516.0914070503536,\"target_delta\":0.3,\"vol\":39.49},\"30P\":{\"delta\":-0.3000000004528495,\"delta_error\":-4.528495356481699e-10,\"label\":\"30P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.02874554745785731,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2372.7343593070636,\"target_delta\":-0.3,\"vol\":42.29},\"35C\":{\"delta\":0.35000000376588636,\"delta_error\":3.76588638051345e-09,\"label\":\"35C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.022412428660656205,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2497.2771649719025,\"target_delta\":0.35,\"vol\":39.54},\"35P\":{\"delta\":-0.3500000027230619,\"delta_error\":-2.723061942599969e-09,\"label\":\"35P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.020339644385487004,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2392.7633974884843,\"target_delta\":-0.35,\"vol\":41.56},\"40C\":{\"delta\":0.40000000337335423,\"delta_error\":3.3733542070812916e-09,\"label\":\"40C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.015307524884972357,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2479.597132850486,\"target_delta\":0.4,\"vol\":39.67},\"40P\":{\"delta\":-0.4000000077917013,\"delta_error\":-7.791701284176611e-09,\"label\":\"40P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.012650300447036996,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2411.2330971484557,\"target_delta\":-0.4,\"vol\":41.0},\"5C\":{\"delta\":0.04999999922754816,\"delta_error\":-7.724518455431983e-10,\"label\":\"5C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.09932041279404663,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2696.9162440810705,\"target_delta\":0.05,\"vol\":43.24},\"5P\":{\"delta\":-0.049999997284822864,\"delta_error\":2.7151771386790813e-09,\"label\":\"5P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.12314007404427536,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2159.007232851819,\"target_delta\":-0.05,\"vol\":55.74},\"AMTF\":{\"delta\":0.49999999432856107,\"delta_error\":-5.671438929599759e-09,\"label\":\"AMTF\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2441.929671354861,\"target_delta\":0.5,\"vol\":40.17}},\"risk_reversals_json\":{\"rr_05\":-12.5,\"rr_10\":-8.23,\"rr_15\":-6.13,\"rr_20\":-4.75,\"rr_25\":-3.67,\"rr_30\":-2.8,\"rr_35\":-2.02,\"rr_40\":-1.33},\"row_kind\":\"fixed_tenor\"}],\"qualityPolicy\":\"fixed_tenor; non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:be5bb7a69b1a0a1c871c7ad4dd1739a32c8d46a7526f6ee5246d47245a4f121e\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":5.83,\"current\":46.0,\"percentChange\":14.51,\"previous\":40.17},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.51,\"current\":49.07,\"percentChange\":3.17,\"previous\":47.56},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.07 to -1.75 volatility points (-4.82 points). It crossed zero from positive to negative.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"ETH\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-18\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698302,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688234,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":7.13,\"current\":53.13,\"percentChange\":15.5,\"previous\":46.0},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.31,\"current\":51.38,\"percentChange\":4.71,\"previous\":49.07},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "c80fc535379269ea9d06d922169ba3a62e26f42fcdad658d79e9880c43dbc203", "materialRegimeChange": true } ], "surfaceDiagnostics": { "version": 1, "kind": "nativeSurfaceDiagnostics", "policy": { "version": 1, "levelInspectionVolPoints": 10.0, "changeInspectionVolPoints": 5.0, "basis": "Explicit operational inspection thresholds; not calibrated materiality or quality limits", "priority": "daily change spread", "fitAssessment": "observations only; no pass/fail calibration", "quoteAssessment": "raw quotes are not saved in native report inputs", "confirmation": "same pair and exact window; matching signed level gap or change gap at 2W/1M" }, "unit": "volatility points", "legs": [ { "asset": "ETH", "snapshots": { "current": { "id": 698302, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 688234, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "nativeProvenanceStatus": "available", "nativeProvenanceReason": null, "rawQuotes": { "status": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "raw-quote-evidence-not-saved", "qualityAssessment": null }, "fit": { "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "observations": { "currentObjective": 0.09215879, "previousObjective": 0.49048468, "currentLiveError": 101.16843767, "previousLiveError": 76.09583805 }, "qualityAssessment": null }, "expiryCoverage": { "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "observations": { "currentListedExpiries": 12, "previousListedExpiries": 12, "comparedListedExpiries": 11, "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "bracketing": { "status": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "listed-expiry-bounds-not-saved" } }, "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].report.sourceSnapshots", "rows[asset=ETH].report.fitQuality", "rows[asset=ETH].report.coverage", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors" ], "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null } ], "pairs": [], "sourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"report\":{\"coverage\":{\"comparedListedExpiries\":11,\"currentListedExpiries\":12,\"fixedTenors\":[\"1W\",\"2W\",\"1M\",\"3M\",\"6M\",\"9M\"],\"previousListedExpiries\":12,\"suppressedFixedTenors\":[\"1Y\"]},\"currency\":\"ETH\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"fitQuality\":{\"currentLiveError\":101.16843767,\"currentObjective\":0.09215879,\"previousLiveError\":76.09583805,\"previousObjective\":0.49048468},\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-18\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698302,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688234,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":7.13,\"current\":53.13,\"previous\":46.0},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":4.44,\"current\":52.32,\"previous\":47.88},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"2W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.31,\"current\":51.38,\"previous\":49.07},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "sourceSha256": "928a5ec7717f8054c16c460e465fa32cab304895afdfc8514a3ce825f420f2b0" }, "skewWhipsaw": { "version": 1, "kind": "nativeTwoDayRr25Whipsaw", "tenor": "1W", "metric": "rr25", "unit": "volatility points", "policy": { "version": 1, "dailyWindowHours": 24, "minimumAbsoluteLegVolPoints": 1.0, "basis": "Explicit operational inspection threshold on both legs; not calibrated materiality or rarity", "endpointPolicy": "three native endpoints; exact adjacent UTC windows and identical shared snapshot ID/value", "zeroCrossing": "strict opposite endpoint signs; zero endpoint is a touch", "historyScope": "only the preceding native day; no nearest-date substitution or inferred endpoint" }, "observations": [ { "id": "eth-1w-rr25-two-day-whipsaw", "asset": "ETH", "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "endpoints": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "snapshotId": 678205, "value": -3.67 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "snapshotId": 688234, "value": -4.75 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "snapshotId": 698302, "value": -7.46 } ], "dailyMoves": [ -1.08, -2.71 ], "oppositeMoves": false, "inspectionRequired": false, "grossMovement": 3.79, "netChange": -3.79, "zeroCrossings": [ null, null ], "zeroTouches": [ false, false ], "statement": "ETH 1W RR25 adjacent daily moves were -1.08 then -2.71 volatility points; gross movement 3.79 versus net -3.79. 0 strict zero crossings. The operational whipsaw inspection threshold is not met." } ], "sourceCanonicalJson": "{\"currentRows\":[{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"ETH\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-18\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698302,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688234,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":-2.71,\"current\":-7.46,\"previous\":-4.75},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}],\"historicalRows\":[{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"ETH\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-17\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":688234,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":678205,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":-1.08,\"current\":-4.75,\"previous\":-3.67},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]}", "sourceSha256": "931d318e08a9411539536c34b440d53d46ad4ad16e76abec68c2e586016b6158" }, "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-18T17:13:25+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points", "standfirst": "Ether's 1W ATM implied volatility climbed 7.13 volatility points to 53.13% over the daily window, according to Derivasys data. The increase exceeded the 1M ATM IV rise of 2.31 volatility points, pushing weekly implied volatility above monthly volatility. One-week skew also shifted further toward puts.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-18", "headline": "Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points", "summary": "Ether's 1W ATM IV moved higher by 7.13 volatility points between October 17 and October 18 at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. Ether's 1W ATM IV reached 53.13%, up from 46.00%. The absolute Ether 1W ATM IV daily move ranked at the 93rd percentile among 43 matching observations with endpoints spanning August 29 to October 17, 2026.\n\nIn provisional, single-source reporting, The Block said Cysic suspended its bridge after unauthorized token minting and that an attacker moved proceeds to Ethereum through Mayan, deBridge and SWFT's Bridgers. The report provides Ethereum activity context, but no clear measured link connects the incident to Ether's options repricing.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.", "events": [ { "eventId": "dd0d3c9e-d0dd-4df6-9276-fd7115e5a263", "title": "Cysic suspends bridge after attacker mints tokens and moves $727,000 to Ethereum", "publisher": "The Block", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-10-18-cysic-suspends-bridge-after-attacker-mints-tokens-and-moves-727000-to-ethereum-418863", "publishedAt": "2026-10-18T16:07:43+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points", "standfirst": "Ether's 1W ATM implied volatility climbed 7.13 volatility points to 53.13% over the daily window, according to Derivasys data. The increase exceeded the 1M ATM IV rise of 2.31 volatility points, pushing weekly implied volatility above monthly volatility. One-week skew also shifted further toward puts.", "leadChart": { "asset": "ETH", "metric": "atmIv", "eventType": "atmIv", "label": "1W", "current": 53.13, "previous": 46.0, "change": 7.13, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "eth-largestAtmMove", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "eventRef": "events[type=atmIv,label=1W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv" }, "event": { "type": "atmIv", "title": "Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move", "label": "1W", "value": 7.13 } }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "ETH", "sessionDate": "2026-10-16", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-16T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session retrieved as of 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00; all reported metric observation timestamps are 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 21.94 points, at the 9.1 percentile across 254 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.26 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 21.94 points, at the 9.1 percentile across 254 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.26 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 48.54, "vix": 19.989999771118164, "vix9d": 20.1200008392334, "vix3m": 20.5, "ivSpread": 28.550000228881835, "ivRatio": 2.4282141348561335, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 32.38977033860153, "spxRealisedVol20": 10.453348661399076, "rvSpread": 21.936421677202453, "rvRatio": 3.098506649664021, "rvSpreadPercentile": 9.05511811023622, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 254, "rvRatioPercentile": 12.598425196850394, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 254, "returnCorrelation30": 0.5703076184739069, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.2637842381209617, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1. Crypto snapshot and benchmark timestamps: 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z; ingestion: 2026-10-16T22:30:50.861284Z. Quality valid; freshness fresh, age 160260 seconds evaluated at 2026-10-18T16:31:00Z; alignment tolerance 600 seconds. IV is a 30-calendar-day fixed tenor nearest the US close, ACT/365 convention. Volatility levels and spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252). Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Sources: Derivasys surface/canonical crypto index and Yahoo Finance ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M, ^GSPC. Other returned cross-asset readings: ivSpreadChange1d=-3.4500006866455095 volatility_points; ivRatioChange1d=-0.5158929547799871 ratio_change; rvSpreadChange1d=-0.4787300674072199 volatility_points; rvRatioChange1d=-0.23372592754477317 ratio_change; ivSpreadPercentile=null and ivRatioPercentile=null, each sampleCount=33; returnCorrelation30Percentile=59.030837004405285, sampleCount=227; returnCorrelation60Percentile=5.9880239520958085, sampleCount=167. Level/change metric sampleCount values are null." }, "editorialContext": { "version": 2, "status": "active", "scope": "daily options-surface movements", "statement": null, "chosenStoryId": "eth-largestAtmMove", "preferredLeadId": null, "eligibilityTests": { "dailySingleAsset": true, "completeNativeDailySurface": false, "allSurfaceHistoryEligible": true, "noExceptionalSupportedSurfaceEvent": false, "supportedAtmLeadAvailable": true, "chosenAtmLead": true }, "nativeObservations": [ { "id": "eth-largestAtmMove", "tenor": "1W", "metric": "atmIv", "current": 53.13, "previous": 46.0, "change": 7.13 }, { "id": "eth-largestRr25Move", "tenor": "1W", "metric": "rr25", "current": -7.46, "previous": -4.75, "change": -2.71 }, { "id": "eth-largestBf25Move", "tenor": "1W", "metric": "bf25", "current": 3.8, "previous": 2.99, "change": 0.81 } ], "strongCandidateIds": [ "eth-largestAtmMove", "eth-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "eth-largestRr25Move", "eth-largestBf25Move" ], "supportingContext": [ { "id": "eth-spot-24h", "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 66.1, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "cdb4c6741a7f88a3e1cf7c1109f9fec630b247ed94c099c9b201e66ac567825b" } }, { "id": "eth-implied-realised-7d", "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" } }, { "id": "eth-smile-rotation", "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" } } ], "policy": { "version": 2, "routinePercentileUpperExclusive": 80, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "basis": "Operational routine threshold; not calibrated market materiality or a trading recommendation" }, "sourceSha256": "91709f12f2d79956c5d826321adc2490b4865465a9e56a42bfd84e2773f6107c", "sourceCanonicalJson": "{\"candidates\":[{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"change\":7.13,\"current\":53.13,\"expiry\":null,\"headlinePolicyVersion\":2,\"historicalContext\":{\"basis\":\"absolute matching cadence 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ATM IV moved higher by 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:be5bb7a69b1a0a1c871c7ad4dd1739a32c8d46a7526f6ee5246d47245a4f121e\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":5.83,\"current\":46.0,\"percentChange\":14.51,\"previous\":40.17},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.51,\"current\":49.07,\"percentChange\":3.17,\"previous\":47.56},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, 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ties ordered by candidate ID", "headlinePolicyVersion": 2 }, { "id": "eth-largestRr25Move", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -2.71, "current": -7.46, "previous": -4.75, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 95.8, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.7279, "score": 41.5395, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 95.8, "observations": 24, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 24, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-17", "endDate": "2026-10-17", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:1f08d0bd18a4a7e664e052ba35c3eca119e60ef7f606c242878dda13b0de9c23" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 2.71, "magnitudeScore": 5.42, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 36.1195, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 41.5395, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 95.8, "tailDistance": 45.8, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 41.5395 }, "story": "ETH 1W RR25 moved lower by 2.71", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 41.5395, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID", "headlinePolicyVersion": 2 }, { "id": "eth-largestBf25Move", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.81, "current": 3.8, "previous": 2.99, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 91.7, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.3852, "score": 35.186, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 91.7, "observations": 24, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 24, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-17", "endDate": "2026-10-17", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:714d5013e01e5185b8e401b7c4b499b873905b918ba5c67487027c91b44cee9b" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.62, "magnitudeScore": 3.24, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 31.946, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 35.186, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 91.7, "tailDistance": 41.7, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 35.186 }, "story": "ETH 1W BF25 moved higher by 0.81", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 35.186, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID", "headlinePolicyVersion": 2 }, { "id": "eth-spot-24h", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -1.64, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 66.1, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.4152, "score": 11.2635, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; 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