{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "generatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:33:07+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 668208, "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 658131, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "ETH", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 57, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.24, "rv24hPercent": 81.58, "rv7dPercent": 49.05, "rv30dPercent": 46.47, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "ETH", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "32d55c8430f6b77e4935cf399d430bc7768e59e5cd73790feb5067d16986846b", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 1887.09, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 1906.46, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 1911.8, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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"windows": { "24h": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 2428.4, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 2422.54, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": -0.24, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "32d55c8430f6b77e4935cf399d430bc7768e59e5cd73790feb5067d16986846b", "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may 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"suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Ether options: 1w butterfly increases 0.38 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "Ether 2W ATM IV fell 0.35 volatility points to 46.48%, while Ether 1M ATM IV fell 0.16 volatility points to 48.68%, both against the October 14 cutoff. At the current cutoff, Ether 1W ATM IV stood 5.40 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 49.05%; this gap alone does not establish option value.", "evidenceIds": [ "bf25", "largest-standard-tenor", "front-atm", "realised-vol", "spot-index-24h", "eth-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change" ], "newsSummary": "In Ether ecosystem news, The Defiant and Cointelegraph reported VanEck’s request to withdraw its Lido staked Ether ETF application. The Defiant separately reported direct ETH staking from four layer-2 networks through Lido’s interface, while Cointelegraph described Starknet’s vote on researching a possible independent L1. The latter two accounts remain provisional single-source reporting, and the Starknet vote does not establish an approved exit or migration. These developments provide context without an established causal link to the options changes.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "19f66d82-291e-41df-b45e-43d8ab1f6642", "7fcedae8-049a-4705-9dc8-93cecbc303e9", "53ab9a20-a852-4114-8cb7-f87e760a78bc" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 43.65%, 5.40 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 49.05%; 24-hour realised volatility was 81.58% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.47%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.71 volatility points to 46.27% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to 52.44% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to -1.93% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 3.36% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.63 volatility points at 1W, to 43.65%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": -1.63 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -0.24% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -0.03% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "eth-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.56 to +5.03 volatility points (+1.47 points). 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This butterfly measure captures average 25-delta wing implied volatility relative to ATM implied volatility. The increase accompanied a 1.63-volatility-point decline in Ether 1W ATM implied volatility to 43.65% at October 15 16:31 UTC.", "eventsSelected": 3 }, "items": [ { "id": "19f66d82-291e-41df-b45e-43d8ab1f6642", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "VanEck seeks to withdraw application for Lido staked Ether ETF", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-seeks-to-withdraw-application-for-lido-staked-ether-etf", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T01:21:52+00:00", "summary": "Selected ETH and majors context. Attribute the withdrawal request to The Defiant and Cointelegraph. The two returned media records are preserved; their independence is not established merely by matching headlines. Editorial subject: spot_etf.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 47, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 46.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 2, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.65, "importance": 0.564, "novelty": 0.117, "corroboration": 0.3333, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.182, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.182, "contentKind": "catalyst", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "19f66d82-291e-41df-b45e-43d8ab1f6642", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-87dd0dc82c2f" }, { "id": "7fcedae8-049a-4705-9dc8-93cecbc303e9", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Lido Adds Direct ETH Staking From Four Layer 2s to Its Interface", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/lido-adds-direct-eth-staking-from-four-layer-2s-to-its-interface", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T10:49:25+00:00", "summary": "Selected ETH context: The Defiant reports a direct ETH staking interface using local wstETH liquidity and background bridging. 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Attribute the withdrawal request to The Defiant and Cointelegraph. The two returned media records are preserved; their independence is not established merely by matching headlines. Editorial subject: spot_etf.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 47, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 46.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 2, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.65, "importance": 0.564, "novelty": 0.117, "corroboration": 0.3333, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.182, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.182, "contentKind": "catalyst", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "19f66d82-291e-41df-b45e-43d8ab1f6642", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-87dd0dc82c2f" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-1605d8f5b8b3", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "7fcedae8-049a-4705-9dc8-93cecbc303e9", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Lido Adds Direct ETH Staking From Four Layer 2s to Its Interface", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/lido-adds-direct-eth-staking-from-four-layer-2s-to-its-interface", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T10:49:25+00:00", "summary": "Selected ETH context: The Defiant reports a direct ETH staking interface using local wstETH liquidity and background bridging. Provisional single-source reporting; protocol functionality, not options evidence or borrowing activity.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 40, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 40.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.518, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.1161, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.1161, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "7fcedae8-049a-4705-9dc8-93cecbc303e9", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-1605d8f5b8b3" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8ba05cc87ca6", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "53ab9a20-a852-4114-8cb7-f87e760a78bc", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Starknet opens vote on potential Ethereum L2 exit over quantum risks", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/starknet-vote-ethereum-l2-exit-post-quantum-l1", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T10:20:44+00:00", "summary": "Selected ETH context: Cointelegraph reports a vote on researching a possible independent L1. Preserve the exploratory status; no exit or migration has been approved by this evidence.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "crypto_general" ], "topics": [ "protocol", "protocol_upgrade" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "53ab9a20-a852-4114-8cb7-f87e760a78bc", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8ba05cc87ca6" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market events", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-87dd0dc82c2f", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "19f66d82-291e-41df-b45e-43d8ab1f6642", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "VanEck seeks to withdraw application for Lido staked Ether ETF", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-seeks-to-withdraw-application-for-lido-staked-ether-etf", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T01:21:52+00:00", "summary": "Selected ETH and majors context. Attribute the withdrawal request to The Defiant and Cointelegraph. The two returned media records are preserved; their independence is not established merely by matching headlines. Editorial subject: spot_etf.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 47, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 46.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 2, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.65, "importance": 0.564, "novelty": 0.117, "corroboration": 0.3333, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.182, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.182, "contentKind": "catalyst", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "19f66d82-291e-41df-b45e-43d8ab1f6642", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-87dd0dc82c2f" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-1605d8f5b8b3", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "7fcedae8-049a-4705-9dc8-93cecbc303e9", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Lido Adds Direct ETH Staking From Four Layer 2s to Its Interface", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/lido-adds-direct-eth-staking-from-four-layer-2s-to-its-interface", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T10:49:25+00:00", "summary": "Selected ETH context: The Defiant reports a direct ETH staking interface using local wstETH liquidity and background bridging. Provisional single-source reporting; protocol functionality, not options evidence or borrowing activity.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 40, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 40.2, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.518, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.1161, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.1161, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "7fcedae8-049a-4705-9dc8-93cecbc303e9", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-1605d8f5b8b3" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8ba05cc87ca6", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "53ab9a20-a852-4114-8cb7-f87e760a78bc", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Starknet opens vote on potential Ethereum L2 exit over quantum risks", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/starknet-vote-ethereum-l2-exit-post-quantum-l1", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T10:20:44+00:00", "summary": "Selected ETH context: Cointelegraph reports a vote on researching a possible independent L1. Preserve the exploratory status; no exit or migration has been approved by this evidence.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "crypto_general" ], "topics": [ "protocol", "protocol_upgrade" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "53ab9a20-a852-4114-8cb7-f87e760a78bc", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "protocol", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8ba05cc87ca6" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1W ATM IV fell 1.63 volatility points to 43.65%, a routine move at the 35th percentile among 40 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 81.58% over 24 hours, 49.05% over seven days and 46.47% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 46.27%, -0.71 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 52.44%, -0.09 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.52 volatility points toward puts to -3.45%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.38 volatility points to 3.23%. 24-hour spot-index: -0.24%; nearest eligible forward 18OCT26: -0.15% to $2,429.14. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 106, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 43.65%, 5.40 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 49.05%; 24-hour realised volatility was 81.58% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.47%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.71 volatility points to 46.27% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to 52.44% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to -1.93% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 3.36% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.63 volatility points at 1W, to 43.65%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": -1.63 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -0.24% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -0.03% 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:0.37},\"has_lower_expiry\":true,\"has_upper_expiry\":true,\"is_extrapolated\":false,\"label\":\"1W\",\"risk_reversal_nodes_json\":{\"10C\":{\"delta\":0.09999999748428404,\"delta_error\":-2.515715968876009e-09,\"label\":\"10C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.08112144046724108,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2731.160094624333,\"target_delta\":0.1,\"vol\":45.76},\"10P\":{\"delta\":-0.10000000538469812,\"delta_error\":-5.384698117949505e-09,\"label\":\"10P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.08593684592088846,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2310.9719084395247,\"target_delta\":-0.1,\"vol\":51.18},\"15C\":{\"delta\":0.15000000054670135,\"delta_error\":5.467013508564378e-10,\"label\":\"15C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.06367333460265948,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2683.9198490280937,\"target_delta\":0.15,\"vol\":44.19},\"15P\":{\"delta\":-0.14999999959253404,\"delta_error\":4.074659498698452e-10,\"label\":\"15P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.06519989584835928,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2359.3947533579308,\"target_delta\":-0.15,\"vol\":48.24},\"20C\":{\"delta\":0.19999999806220545,\"delta_error\":-1.9377945637000238e-09,\"label\":\"20C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.051032221775183545,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2650.205656803623,\"target_delta\":0.2,\"vol\":43.34},\"20P\":{\"delta\":-0.2000000057546801,\"delta_error\":-5.754680093561504e-09,\"label\":\"20P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.05069330737820519,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2393.870983727295,\"target_delta\":-0.2,\"vol\":46.47},\"25C\":{\"delta\":0.250000001550888,\"delta_error\":1.5508879736003678e-09,\"label\":\"25C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.04076943866899879,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2623.146260818571,\"target_delta\":0.25,\"vol\":42.85},\"25P\":{\"delta\":-0.24999999888534585,\"delta_error\":1.1146541467610405e-09,\"label\":\"25P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.03923877066050327,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2421.4493137677205,\"target_delta\":-0.25,\"vol\":45.27},\"30C\":{\"delta\":0.2999999984758606,\"delta_error\":-1.5241393702680739e-09,\"label\":\"30C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.031868308494259714,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2599.9009029393674,\"target_delta\":0.3,\"vol\":42.57},\"30P\":{\"delta\":-0.29999999888769174,\"delta_error\":1.1123082455100075e-09,\"label\":\"30P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.02953661136813024,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2445.0569380081733,\"target_delta\":-0.3,\"vol\":44.41},\"35C\":{\"delta\":0.35000000489929534,\"delta_error\":4.89929535829603e-09,\"label\":\"35C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.023796432355102405,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2578.999295955315,\"target_delta\":0.35,\"vol\":42.43},\"35P\":{\"delta\":-0.3500000031601566,\"delta_error\":-3.160156636372591e-09,\"label\":\"35P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.020922583583202235,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2466.209700854328,\"target_delta\":-0.35,\"vol\":43.76},\"40C\":{\"delta\":0.4000000058713867,\"delta_error\":5.8713866546433735e-09,\"label\":\"40C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.01622840293084882,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2559.555023616906,\"target_delta\":0.4,\"vol\":42.41},\"40P\":{\"delta\":-0.39999999807230274,\"delta_error\":1.9276972795800873e-09,\"label\":\"40P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.013002623841784591,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2485.8195344418896,\"target_delta\":-0.4,\"vol\":43.28},\"5C\":{\"delta\":0.050000003925431004,\"delta_error\":3.92543100108389e-09,\"label\":\"5C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.11231434108318165,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2817.695529180688,\"target_delta\":0.05,\"vol\":49.59},\"5P\":{\"delta\":-0.0499999988804978,\"delta_error\":1.1195022062149285e-09,\"label\":\"5P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.1249311545243037,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":2222.5915213728426,\"target_delta\":-0.05,\"vol\":57.8},\"AMTF\":{\"delta\":0.4999999970935381,\"delta_error\":-2.906461904483848e-09,\"label\":\"AMTF\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":2518.3527610810183,\"target_delta\":0.5,\"vol\":42.66}},\"risk_reversals_json\":{\"rr_05\":-8.21,\"rr_10\":-5.42,\"rr_15\":-4.05,\"rr_20\":-3.13,\"rr_25\":-2.42,\"rr_30\":-1.84,\"rr_35\":-1.33,\"rr_40\":-0.87},\"row_kind\":\"fixed_tenor\"}],\"qualityPolicy\":\"fixed_tenor; non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:95a841584648f5da15fd7f7b2e38d4cd672b3ba5d54284c52725be238064bb24\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.62,\"current\":45.28,\"percentChange\":6.14,\"previous\":42.66},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.92,\"current\":48.84,\"percentChange\":1.92,\"previous\":47.92},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.56 to +5.03 volatility points (+1.47 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"ETH\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-15\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":668208,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":658131,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-1.63,\"current\":43.65,\"percentChange\":-3.6,\"previous\":45.28},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.16,\"current\":48.68,\"percentChange\":-0.33,\"previous\":48.84},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "5dbfeae72b9b51f7170158ace824be49e4276d0af52037b3e56c8b7dbc25f353", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:43:23+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Ether options: 1w butterfly increases 0.38 volatility points", "standfirst": "Ether 1W BF25 increased 0.38 volatility points to 3.23 volatility points against the October 14 16:31 UTC cutoff. This butterfly measure captures average 25-delta wing implied volatility relative to ATM implied volatility. The increase accompanied a 1.63-volatility-point decline in Ether 1W ATM implied volatility to 43.65% at October 15 16:31 UTC.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "headline": "Ether options: 1w butterfly increases 0.38 volatility points", "summary": "Ether 1W BF25 rose 0.38 volatility points to 3.23 volatility points over the daily comparison ending October 15 at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. The comparison baseline is October 14 at 16:31 UTC. The butterfly increase ranked at the 67.5 percentile among 40 matching prior daily changes over August 29–October 14. The current 1W BF25 level ranked at the 93.2 percentile among 44 prior levels over that window, distinguishing an elevated level within the sample from a less exceptional daily change.\n\nIn Ether ecosystem news, The Defiant and Cointelegraph reported VanEck’s request to withdraw its Lido staked Ether ETF application. The Defiant separately reported direct ETH staking from four layer-2 networks through Lido’s interface, while Cointelegraph described Starknet’s vote on researching a possible independent L1. The latter two accounts remain provisional single-source reporting, and the Starknet vote does not establish an approved exit or migration. These developments provide context without an established causal link to the options changes.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.", "events": [ { "eventId": "19f66d82-291e-41df-b45e-43d8ab1f6642", "title": "VanEck seeks to withdraw application for Lido staked Ether ETF", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-seeks-to-withdraw-application-for-lido-staked-ether-etf", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T01:21:52+00:00" }, { "eventId": "7fcedae8-049a-4705-9dc8-93cecbc303e9", "title": "Lido Adds Direct ETH Staking From Four Layer 2s to Its Interface", "publisher": "The Defiant", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/lido-adds-direct-eth-staking-from-four-layer-2s-to-its-interface", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T10:49:25+00:00" }, { "eventId": "53ab9a20-a852-4114-8cb7-f87e760a78bc", "title": "Starknet opens vote on potential Ethereum L2 exit over quantum risks", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/starknet-vote-ethereum-l2-exit-post-quantum-l1", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T10:20:44+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Ether options: 1w butterfly increases 0.38 volatility points", "standfirst": "Ether 1W BF25 increased 0.38 volatility points to 3.23 volatility points against the October 14 16:31 UTC cutoff. This butterfly measure captures average 25-delta wing implied volatility relative to ATM implied volatility. The increase accompanied a 1.63-volatility-point decline in Ether 1W ATM implied volatility to 43.65% at October 15 16:31 UTC.", "leadChart": { "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "eventType": "bf25", "label": "1W", "current": 3.23, "previous": 2.85, "change": 0.38, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "eth-largestBf25Move", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "eventRef": "events[type=bf25,label=1W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=1W].bf25" }, "event": { "type": "bf25", "title": "Largest standard-tenor BF25 move", "label": "1W", "value": 0.38 } }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "ETH", "sessionDate": "2026-10-14", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-14T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session requested as of 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00. Crypto and benchmark observations are timestamped 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 21.33 points, at the 7.5 percentile across 252 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.27 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 21.33 points, at the 7.5 percentile across 252 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.27 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 49.14, "vix": 16.8700008392334, "vix9d": 14.59000015258789, "vix3m": 18.790000915527344, "ivSpread": 32.2699991607666, "ivRatio": 2.912862925632967, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 31.624248784185067, "spxRealisedVol20": 10.29795811370241, "rvSpread": 21.326290670482656, "rvRatio": 3.070924200216546, "rvSpreadPercentile": 7.5396825396825395, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 252, "rvRatioPercentile": 11.904761904761905, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 252, "returnCorrelation30": 0.5937116292024246, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.27366763403675387, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1. Derivasys 30-calendar-day ATM IV uses ACT/365; crypto 20-calendar-day RV uses sqrt(365), SPX 20-US-session RV uses sqrt(252). Mixed annualisation is preserved. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session returns. Provider Derivasys+yahoo_finance; sources Derivasys canonical index/surface, ^GSPC, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M. Ingested 2026-10-14T22:30:50.455123Z. Returned freshness fresh, ageSeconds 73860, evaluatedAt 2026-10-15T16:31:00Z; quality valid. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with sampleCount 31. All metric observation timestamps are 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z." }, "materialCandidates": [ { "id": "eth-largestBf25Move", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.38, "current": 3.23, "previous": 2.85, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 67.5, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.4538, "score": 11.2244, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 67.5, "observations": 40, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 40, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-29", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:d33e40e63d695c6363ac8da0961026eb3d8b17a15f37e87c6e0c6a8855828e5e" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.76, "magnitudeScore": 1.52, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.76, "historicalBonus": 9.7044, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 11.2244, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 67.5, "tailDistance": 17.5, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 11.2244 }, "story": "ETH 1W BF25 moved higher by 0.38", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 11.2244, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-smile-rotation", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "smileRotation", "metricLabel": "smile rotation", "tenor": null, "expiry": "18OCT26", "observationKind": "change", "change": -3.308, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 6.616, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 3.308, "magnitudeScore": 6.616, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 6.616, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 6.616 }, "story": "ETH 18OCT26 smile rotation moved lower by 3.31", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 6.616, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-largestAtmMove", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "atmIv", "metricLabel": "ATM IV", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -1.63, "current": 43.65, "previous": 45.28, "relativeChangePercent": -3.5998, "historicalPercentile": 35.0, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.3853, "score": 3.26, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 35.0, "observations": 40, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 40, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-29", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:4b738de711659b979a6430dc64208e7d6274a6f9d109b419ebefe4d2e91a1ef1" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.63, "magnitudeScore": 3.26, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 3.26, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 35.0, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; 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validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 1.08 }, "story": "ETH 1W implied-versus-realised spread stood at -5.40", "source": "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 1.08, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-largestRr25Move", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -0.52, "current": -3.45, "previous": -2.93, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 20.8, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.8134, "score": 1.04, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 20.8, "observations": 24, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 24, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-14", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:5bbd258f023cfbdd196fd0d7787da1fae2c04ecf10b1fa99f7ae53324cc7faa9" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.52, "magnitudeScore": 1.04, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.52, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.04, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 20.8, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:95a841584648f5da15fd7f7b2e38d4cd672b3ba5d54284c52725be238064bb24\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.62,\"current\":45.28,\"percentChange\":6.14,\"previous\":42.66},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.92,\"current\":48.84,\"percentChange\":1.92,\"previous\":47.92},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.56 to +5.03 volatility points (+1.47 points). 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extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null } } ], "realisedVolatility": { "spotMove24hPercent": -0.24, "spotMove7dPercent": -0.03, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "ETH", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "windows": { "24h": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 2428.4, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 2422.54, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": -0.24, "unavailableReason": null } } } } } } ], "lead": { "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "tenor": "1W" } }, "currentProjectionSha256": "f94d5091c97cc6d0510af86eb597afb7eece6efd688bdf092c66f8b906fd3b4b", "prior": null }, "opening": { "status": "complete", "reason": null, "basis": "selected-headline-tenor", "tenor": "1W", "movements": [ { "asset": "ETH", "metric": "spot", "tenor": null, "previous": 2428.4, "current": 2422.54, "change": -0.24, "unit": "percent", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].report.realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" ] }, { "asset": "ETH", "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1W", "previous": 45.28, "current": 43.65, "change": -1.63, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change" ] }, { "asset": "ETH", "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W", "previous": -2.93, "current": -3.45, "change": -0.52, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.previous", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.current", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.change" ] }, { "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "tenor": "1W", "previous": 2.85, "current": 3.23, "change": 0.38, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change" ] } ] }, "followThrough": { "status": "unavailable", "reason": "verified-adjacent-published-edition-unavailable", "priorReportDate": null, "comparisons": [], "breadthChanges": [], "recordedWatchStatus": "unavailable", "recordedWatchReason": "recorded-watch-unavailable", "watchEvaluations": [] }, "watchlist": [ { "id": "ETH:bf25:1W:observed-current-level", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "tenor": "1W", "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change" ], "currentBaseline": 3.23, "threshold": 3.23, "comparator": "gte", "thresholdPolicy": "observed-current-level", "basis": "continuation-at-observed-level", "nextAlignedCutoff": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "evaluationWindow": { "start": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00" } }, { "id": "ETH:bf25:1W:observed-previous-level", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "tenor": "1W", "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current", "rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change" ], "currentBaseline": 3.23, "threshold": 2.85, "comparator": "lte", "thresholdPolicy": "observed-previous-level", "basis": "full-retrace-to-observed-level", "nextAlignedCutoff": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "evaluationWindow": { "start": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00" } } ] } }