{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:32:31+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 648116, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 638034, "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "ETH", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 94, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.41, "rv24hPercent": 56.24, "rv7dPercent": 42.15, "rv30dPercent": 44.91, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "ETH", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "9e30e6c421981513b3cb7fd794e382c188196f67df62ca4d8918a0439f191b9a", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-14T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 1882.4, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-15T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 1883.64, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 1888.36, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "ETH-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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smile rotation rises 3.97 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "Ether's fixed-tenor ATM IV changes diverged across the front end: 2W ATM IV rose 0.42 volatility points to 44.52%, while 1M ATM IV fell 0.12 volatility points to 47.93%. Ether's 1W call-minus-put RR25 increased 0.64 volatility points from -3.05 to -2.41 volatility points, reducing the put-side tilt while remaining negative.\n\nEther's 1W ATM IV exceeded seven-day realised volatility of 42.15% by 0.60 volatility points at the cutoff; that gap does not establish a valuation conclusion. Ether's 6M ATM IV rose 0.04 volatility points to 52.42%, while its 6M BF25 butterfly increased 0.12 volatility points to 3.49 volatility points. The 1Y tenor is unavailable because listed expiries did not bracket it at both snapshots.", "evidenceIds": [ "rr25", "front-atm", "realised-vol", "largest-standard-tenor", "spot-index-24h", "back-atm", "bf25", "eth-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change" ], "newsSummary": "Ethereum ecosystem developments provide context with no established causal link to these options changes. [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/interactive-brokers-launches-ethereum-staking-through-zerohash) reports Interactive Brokers' Ethereum staking launch through Zerohash, with withdrawals subject to network waiting periods. [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/ens-dao-ensv2-upgrade-eth-domain-registrations) reports an ENS proposal to activate an upgraded naming system; new .eth registrations would pause during transition, while existing holders could renew without migrating. [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/13/once-largest-ethereum-nft-marketplace-blur-is-shutting-down-after-volumes-collapse-99) reports Blur's shutdown following a steep volume decline. All three remain provisional, developing single-source reports.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 42.75%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 42.15%; 24-hour realised volatility was 56.24% and 30-day realised volatility was 44.91%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.34 volatility points to 45.07% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to 52.42% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to -1.48% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 3.13% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.71 volatility points at 1W, to 42.75%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 0.71 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -0.41% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "ETH spot-index return was -6.87% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "ETH", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "completedScopes": [ "ETH", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": 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At the October 13 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV stood at 42.75%. Matching rotation history is unavailable, and the rotation statistic alone does not establish call-side or put-side direction.", "eventsSelected": 3 }, "items": [ { "id": "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Once-largest Ethereum NFT marketplace Blur is shutting down after volumes collapse 99%", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/13/once-largest-ethereum-nft-marketplace-blur-is-shutting-down-after-volumes-collapse-99", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T04:43:18+00:00", "summary": "CoinDesk reports the shutdown of Ethereum NFT marketplace Blur after a steep decline in volume.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Once-largest Ethereum NFT" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8f46622e39d4" }, { "id": "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Interactive Brokers Launches Ethereum Staking Through Zerohash", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/interactive-brokers-launches-ethereum-staking-through-zerohash", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T14:14:06+00:00", "summary": "The Defiant reports that eligible clients retain at least 70% of staking rewards, with withdrawals subject to network waiting periods.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Interactive Brokers Launches Ethereum", "Staking Through Zerohash Eligible" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 37, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 37.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.0874, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0874, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6d4e1cfef237" }, { "id": "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "ENS seeks DAO approval to activate upgraded Ethereum naming system", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/ens-dao-ensv2-upgrade-eth-domain-registrations", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T11:11:27+00:00", "summary": "Cointelegraph reports a proposed ENS transition, with new .eth registrations pausing during activation and existing names renewable without migration.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-a2a694bbdd6f" } ], "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8f46622e39d4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Once-largest Ethereum NFT marketplace Blur is shutting down after volumes collapse 99%", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/13/once-largest-ethereum-nft-marketplace-blur-is-shutting-down-after-volumes-collapse-99", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T04:43:18+00:00", "summary": "CoinDesk reports the shutdown of Ethereum NFT marketplace Blur after a steep decline in volume.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Once-largest Ethereum NFT" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8f46622e39d4" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6d4e1cfef237", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Interactive Brokers Launches Ethereum Staking Through Zerohash", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/interactive-brokers-launches-ethereum-staking-through-zerohash", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T14:14:06+00:00", "summary": "The Defiant reports that eligible clients retain at least 70% of staking rewards, with withdrawals subject to network waiting periods.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Interactive Brokers Launches Ethereum", "Staking Through Zerohash Eligible" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 37, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 37.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.0874, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0874, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6d4e1cfef237" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-a2a694bbdd6f", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "ENS seeks DAO approval to activate upgraded Ethereum naming system", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/ens-dao-ensv2-upgrade-eth-domain-registrations", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T11:11:27+00:00", "summary": "Cointelegraph reports a proposed ENS transition, with new .eth registrations pausing during activation and existing names renewable without migration.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-a2a694bbdd6f" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market events", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8f46622e39d4", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Once-largest Ethereum NFT marketplace Blur is shutting down after volumes collapse 99%", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/13/once-largest-ethereum-nft-marketplace-blur-is-shutting-down-after-volumes-collapse-99", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T04:43:18+00:00", "summary": "CoinDesk reports the shutdown of Ethereum NFT marketplace Blur after a steep decline in volume.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Once-largest Ethereum NFT" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-8f46622e39d4" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6d4e1cfef237", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "sourceId": "the_defiant", "publisher": "The Defiant", "title": "Interactive Brokers Launches Ethereum Staking Through Zerohash", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/interactive-brokers-launches-ethereum-staking-through-zerohash", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T14:14:06+00:00", "summary": "The Defiant reports that eligible clients retain at least 70% of staking rewards, with withdrawals subject to network waiting periods.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Interactive Brokers Launches Ethereum", "Staking Through Zerohash Eligible" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 37, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 37.0, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.61, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.0874, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0874, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6d4e1cfef237" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-a2a694bbdd6f", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "ENS seeks DAO approval to activate upgraded Ethereum naming system", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/ens-dao-ensv2-upgrade-eth-domain-registrations", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T11:11:27+00:00", "summary": "Cointelegraph reports a proposed ENS transition, with new .eth registrations pausing during activation and existing names renewable without migration.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -9.90 USD (-0.39%) to 2517.51 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-a2a694bbdd6f" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1W ATM IV rose 0.71 volatility points to 42.75%. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 56.24% over 24 hours, 42.15% over seven days and 44.91% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 45.07%, +0.34 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 52.42%, +0.04 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.64 volatility points toward calls to -2.41%, leaving puts richer than calls. 6M BF25 rose 0.12 volatility points to 3.49%. 24-hour spot-index: -0.41%; nearest eligible forward 16OCT26: -0.39% to $2,517.51. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 94, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 42.75%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 42.15%; 24-hour realised volatility was 56.24% and 30-day realised volatility was 44.91%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging 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"minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "ETH 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +6.01 to +5.18 volatility points (-0.83 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"ETH\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"ETH\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-13\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":648116,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":638034,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.71,\"current\":42.75,\"percentChange\":1.69,\"previous\":42.04},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.12,\"current\":47.93,\"percentChange\":-0.25,\"previous\":48.05},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "a34f6629688dbaac11a23966948dbf7d5bd48a3a7221761a9da40d2cd8bcf3aa", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:37:17+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Ether options: 16oct26 smile rotation rises 3.97 volatility points", "standfirst": "Ether's 16OCT26 smile rotation rose 3.97 volatility points versus the October 12 16:30 UTC cutoff, a larger adjustment than its biggest fixed-tenor ATM IV increase of 0.71 volatility points at 1W. At the October 13 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV stood at 42.75%. Matching rotation history is unavailable, and the rotation statistic alone does not establish call-side or put-side direction.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "headline": "Ether options: 16oct26 smile rotation rises 3.97 volatility points", "summary": "Ether's 16OCT26 smile rotation increased 3.97 volatility points between the October 12 and October 13 16:30 UTC snapshots. By comparison, Ether's largest fixed-tenor ATM IV increase was 0.71 volatility points at 1W, from 42.04% to 42.75%. The expiry-specific rotation has no available current level or matching historical comparison.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Ethereum ecosystem developments provide context with no established causal link to these options changes. [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/interactive-brokers-launches-ethereum-staking-through-zerohash) reports Interactive Brokers' Ethereum staking launch through Zerohash, with withdrawals subject to network waiting periods. [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/ens-dao-ensv2-upgrade-eth-domain-registrations) reports an ENS proposal to activate an upgraded naming system; new .eth registrations would pause during transition, while existing holders could renew without migrating. [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/13/once-largest-ethereum-nft-marketplace-blur-is-shutting-down-after-volumes-collapse-99) reports Blur's shutdown following a steep volume decline. All three remain provisional, developing single-source reports.", "events": [ { "eventId": "c1a2d30c-31c0-4eb2-a425-42e7837e043a", "title": "Interactive Brokers Launches Ethereum Staking Through Zerohash", "publisher": "The Defiant", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/interactive-brokers-launches-ethereum-staking-through-zerohash", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T14:14:06+00:00" }, { "eventId": "c538b59e-f343-4bba-9762-007d1b6b8fae", "title": "ENS seeks DAO approval to activate upgraded Ethereum naming system", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/ens-dao-ensv2-upgrade-eth-domain-registrations", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T11:11:27+00:00" }, { "eventId": "b4cb52dc-5e70-4f48-8b4b-87c2391061cb", "title": "Once-largest Ethereum NFT marketplace Blur is shutting down after volumes collapse 99%", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/13/once-largest-ethereum-nft-marketplace-blur-is-shutting-down-after-volumes-collapse-99", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T04:43:18+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Ether options: 16oct26 smile rotation rises 3.97 volatility points", "standfirst": "Ether's 16OCT26 smile rotation rose 3.97 volatility points versus the October 12 16:30 UTC cutoff, a larger adjustment than its biggest fixed-tenor ATM IV increase of 0.71 volatility points at 1W. At the October 13 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV stood at 42.75%. Matching rotation history is unavailable, and the rotation statistic alone does not establish call-side or put-side direction.", "leadChart": { "status": "unavailable", "reason": "A chart is unavailable for the leading observation" }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "ETH", "sessionDate": "2026-10-12", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-12T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session retrieved as_of 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00. Crypto and benchmark observations are both timestamped 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z; evaluated freshness is fresh, age 73800 seconds. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with 29 prior observations. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 21.74 points, at the 7.6 percentile across 250 prior observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 21.74 points, at the 7.6 percentile across 250 prior observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 47.77, "vix": 15.210000038146973, "vix9d": 11.680000305175781, "vix3m": 17.93000030517578, "ivSpread": 32.55999996185303, "ivRatio": 3.140696902050751, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 31.444108380388077, "spxRealisedVol20": 9.705175890785151, "rvSpread": 21.738932489602924, "rvRatio": 3.2399318399003523, "rvSpreadPercentile": 7.6, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 250, "rvRatioPercentile": 16.8, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 250, "returnCorrelation30": 0.5639007527138803, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.2422759211951107, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1; persisted Derivasys REST API through market_context MCP. Crypto IV: 30 calendar-day fixed tenor near US close, volatility_points, ACT/365. VIX-family: completed US cash-session closes, volatility_points, Yahoo Finance sources ^VIX/^VIX9D/^VIX3M. Crypto RV: 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns, sqrt(365); SPX RV: 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns, sqrt(252), ^GSPC. RV spreads and ratios preserve these different annualisation clocks. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only. Alignment tolerance 600 seconds; cross-asset ingestion 2026-10-12T22:30:56.287428Z; quality valid." }, "auditCorrection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "kind": "historical-significance-offline-correction", "eligibilityVersion": 2, "originalReportSha256": "65d841e0165b3b097dc41605a6986ef601e6c2d1b3533d5f4f9179dd1d85f647", "originalReportHashBasis": "artifact-bytes", "originalReportCanonicalSha256": "f52aa8749e939f78a7ecbfa0a439ad0d80845a3eda0a1617bb4c11f096c71554", "cadenceDays": 1, "pins": { "ETH": { "pinSha256": "5220cf2d7a41ff9dff6eb983c405046f0c819f4a790dc46f3985eb573d7276f1", "sourceDigest": "sha256:af5dd75553e54433aaedc8e340c3f524644016fd41327f246f0fd0c5be1dcdf9", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "readOnly": true, "sourceRevision": null, "sourceRevisionStatus": "unknown" } }, "sourceRevision": null, "sourceRevisionStatus": "unknown", "exclusions": [ { "reportPath": "$", "asset": "ETH", "currentOrFutureObservationsExcluded": 0 } ], "changedDerivedOnlyPaths": [ 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"observationKind": "change", "change": 3.973, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 7.946, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 3.973, "magnitudeScore": 7.946, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 7.946, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 7.946 }, "story": "ETH 16OCT26 smile rotation moved higher by 3.97", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 7.946, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-largestAtmMove", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "atmIv", "metricLabel": "ATM IV", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.71, "current": 42.75, "previous": 42.04, "relativeChangePercent": 1.6889, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 1.42, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history", "provenance": { "sampleCount": 0, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": null, "endDate": null, "startSnapshotAt": null, "endSnapshotAt": null }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.71, "magnitudeScore": 1.42, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.71, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.42, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 1.42 }, "story": "ETH 1W ATM IV moved higher by 0.71", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 1.42, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-largestRr25Move", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.64, "current": -2.41, "previous": -3.05, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 1.28, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history", "provenance": { "sampleCount": 0, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": null, "endDate": null, "startSnapshotAt": null, "endSnapshotAt": null }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.64, "magnitudeScore": 1.28, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.64, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.28, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 1.28 }, "story": "ETH 1W RR25 moved higher by 0.64", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 1.28, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-spot-24h", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -0.41, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 18.6, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.8927, "score": 0.41, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 18.6, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-14T16:30:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "9e30e6c421981513b3cb7fd794e382c188196f67df62ca4d8918a0439f191b9a" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "percent", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.205, "magnitudeScore": 0.41, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.205, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.41, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 18.6, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.41 }, "story": "ETH spot-index return was -0.41% over 24 hours", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "metricWindow": "24h", "spotReturnEvidence": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 2527.65, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 2517.19, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": -0.41, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "9e30e6c421981513b3cb7fd794e382c188196f67df62ca4d8918a0439f191b9a" }, "selectionScore": 0.41, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-implied-realised-7d", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "impliedRealised", "metricLabel": "implied-versus-realised spread", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 0.6, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 0.12, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.06, "magnitudeScore": 0.12, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.06, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.12, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.12 }, "story": "ETH 1W implied-versus-realised spread stood at 0.60", "source": "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.12, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "eth-largestBf25Move", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "6M", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.12, "current": 3.49, "previous": 3.37, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 0.48, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history", "provenance": { "sampleCount": 0, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": null, "endDate": null, "startSnapshotAt": null, "endSnapshotAt": null }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.24, "magnitudeScore": 0.48, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.24, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.48, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": -0.36, "selectionScore": 0.12 }, "story": "ETH 6M BF25 moved higher by 0.12", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.12, "selectionReason": "A butterfly adjustment below 0.25 points is supporting detail" } ], "reportSignals": { "schemaVersion": 1, "reportKey": "daily:ETH", "cadence": "daily", "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "canonicalReportUrl": "https://www.derivasys.com/reports/eth/2026-10-13/", "comparisonWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "startAtReason": null, "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": null, "basis": "stored surface snapshots; per-asset actual timestamps are in provenance.snapshots", "targetDuration": "24h" }, "leadSignal": { "id": "eth-smile-rotation", "asset": "ETH", "metric": "smileRotation", "metricLabel": "smile rotation", "tenor": null, "expiry": "16OCT26", "scope": "single-asset", "observationKind": "change", "current": null, "previous": null, "change": 3.973, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 3.973, "magnitudeScore": 7.946, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 7.946, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 7.946 }, "selectionAuditVersion": 1, "unit": "volatility points", "fieldUnits": { "current": "volatility points", "previous": "volatility points", "change": "volatility points", "relativeChangePercent": "percent", "historicalPercentile": "percentile", "historicalLevelPercentile": "percentile", "historicalZScore": "standard-normal quantile of empirical percentile" }, "basis": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "selectionMethod": "final-dossier-chosen-story-id", "metricWindow": "report-comparison-window" }, "leadSignalReason": null, "levelDispersion": null, "changeDispersion": null, "rankings": null, "crossAssetReason": "not-applicable-single-asset-report", "percentiles": { "unit": "percentile", "crossAsset": null, "crossAssetReason": "not-applicable-single-asset-report", "selectedLead": { "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "basis": "exact frozen material candidate; source-specific history and classification", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "reason": "source-history-unavailable" }, "selectedLeadReason": null }, "dataQuality": { "status": "partial", "basis": "availability of published surface, realised-volatility and cross-asset metrics; excludes news quality", "nullPolicy": "unavailable observations stay null; no extrapolation or substituted baselines", "assets": [ { "asset": "ETH", "comparisonStatus": null, "comparisonNote": null, "coverage": { "currentListedExpiries": 11, "previousListedExpiries": 11, "comparedListedExpiries": 10, "addedExpiries": [ "17OCT26" ], "removedExpiries": [ "13OCT26" ], "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "currentListedExpiries": null, "comparedListedExpiries": null, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "2W", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], 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