{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-09-18", "generatedAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:51+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 406771, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 396694, "timestamp": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "ETH", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 85, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 5.43, "rv24hPercent": 54.72, "rv7dPercent": 50.18, "rv30dPercent": 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surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c0d914f9-8b87-4e9a-95a6-6f8d1bb3e7b5", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD", "ATM IV 1W: up 1.74 points to 46.19%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6e584ddb48a1" } ], "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6e584ddb48a1", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD", "ATM IV 1W: up 1.74 points to 46.19%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c0d914f9-8b87-4e9a-95a6-6f8d1bb3e7b5", "sourceId": "kraken_status", "publisher": "Kraken", "title": "Ethereum Gateway ERC20 Withdraw Delays", "url": "https://status.kraken.com/incidents/nhkkfrdg21dl", "publishedAt": "2026-09-18T07:48:59+00:00", "summary": "Ethereum Gateway ERC20 Withdraw Delays.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Kraken" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "primary_market", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 62, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 62.1, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.8993, "signals": { "confidence": 0.87, "importance": 0.59, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.8993, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.8993, "catalystScore": 0.277, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.277, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "confirmed" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": false }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c0d914f9-8b87-4e9a-95a6-6f8d1bb3e7b5", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD", "ATM IV 1W: up 1.74 points to 46.19%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6e584ddb48a1" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market event", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6e584ddb48a1", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD", "ATM IV 1W: up 1.74 points to 46.19%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "c0d914f9-8b87-4e9a-95a6-6f8d1bb3e7b5", "sourceId": "kraken_status", "publisher": "Kraken", "title": "Ethereum Gateway ERC20 Withdraw Delays", "url": "https://status.kraken.com/incidents/nhkkfrdg21dl", "publishedAt": "2026-09-18T07:48:59+00:00", "summary": "Ethereum Gateway ERC20 Withdraw Delays.", "matchedTerms": [ "ETH", "Ethereum", "Kraken" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "primary_market", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 62, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 62.1, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.8993, "signals": { "confidence": 0.87, "importance": 0.59, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.8993, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.8993, "catalystScore": 0.277, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.277, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "confirmed" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": false }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "c0d914f9-8b87-4e9a-95a6-6f8d1bb3e7b5", "status": "selected", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD", "ATM IV 1W: up 1.74 points to 46.19%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21SEP26: +130.96 USD (+5.31%) to 2599.27 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-6e584ddb48a1" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "2W RR25 moved 3.29 volatility points toward calls to 2.48%, leaving calls richer than puts; this was a large move at the 94th percentile among 31 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 54.72% over 24 hours, 50.18% over seven days and 56.83% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 47.00%, +0.31 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 54.58%, +0.24 points. 1W ATM IV rose 1.74 volatility points to 46.19%. 2W BF25 rose 0.37 volatility points to 2.90%. The nearest eligible forward, 21SEP26, rose $130.96 (+5.31%) to $2,599.27. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 108, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 46.19%, 3.99 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 50.18%; 24-hour realised volatility was 54.72% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.83%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.31 volatility points to 47.00% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.24 volatility points to 54.58% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +1.83 volatility points to 1.73% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.18 volatility points to 2.94% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.74 volatility points at 1W, to 46.19%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 1.74 } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 0.18, "rr25Change": 1.83, "bf25Change": 0.18, "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "current": 46.19, "previous": 44.45, "change": 1.74, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 1.74, "movePercentile30d": 18.5, "movePercentileFullHistory": 22.6, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 35.3, "classificationPercentile": 22.6, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } }, "frontEndAverageAtm": { "current": 47.0, "previous": 46.69, "change": 0.31 }, "longEndAverageAtm": { "current": 54.58, "previous": 54.34, "change": 0.24 }, "oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "largestRr25Move": { "tenor": "2W", "current": 2.48, "previous": -0.81, "change": 3.29, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 3.29, "movePercentile30d": 92.6, "movePercentileFullHistory": 93.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 79.4, "classificationPercentile": 93.5, "label": "large", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "direction": "toward calls", "currentSign": "call-rich" }, "largestBf25Move": { "tenor": "2W", "current": 2.9, "previous": 2.53, "change": 0.37, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 0.37, "movePercentile30d": 70.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 64.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 58.8, "classificationPercentile": 70.4, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } }, "nearestEligibleForwardMove": { "label": "21SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 2.646, "current": 2599.27, "previous": 2468.31, "change": 130.96, "percentChange": 5.31 } }, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "targetExpiry": 1790353800591, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 46.19, "previous": 44.45, "change": 1.74, "percentChange": 3.91 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.78, "previous": -0.2, "change": 1.98, "percentChange": 990.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.32, "previous": 2.24, "change": 0.08, "percentChange": 3.57 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 1.74, "movePercentile30d": 18.5, "movePercentileFullHistory": 22.6, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 35.3, "classificationPercentile": 22.6, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 1.98, "movePercentile30d": 63.0, "movePercentileFullHistory": 64.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 79.4, "classificationPercentile": 64.5, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.08, "movePercentile30d": 7.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 9.7, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 17.6, "classificationPercentile": 9.7, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } } }, { "tenor": "2W", "targetExpiry": 1790958600591, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 46.13, "previous": 46.77, "change": -0.64, "percentChange": -1.37 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.48, "previous": -0.81, "change": 3.29, "percentChange": 406.17 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.9, "previous": 2.53, "change": 0.37, "percentChange": 14.62 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.64, "movePercentile30d": 18.5, "movePercentileFullHistory": 25.8, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 11.8, "classificationPercentile": 25.8, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 3.29, "movePercentile30d": 92.6, "movePercentileFullHistory": 93.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 79.4, "classificationPercentile": 93.5, "label": "large", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.37, "movePercentile30d": 70.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 64.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 58.8, "classificationPercentile": 70.4, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } } }, { "tenor": "1M", "targetExpiry": 1792341000591, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 48.68, "previous": 48.85, "change": -0.17, "percentChange": -0.35 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.75, "previous": -0.28, "change": 2.03, "percentChange": 725.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.89, "previous": 2.58, "change": 0.31, "percentChange": 12.02 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.17, "movePercentile30d": 7.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 12.9, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 8.8, "classificationPercentile": 12.9, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 2.03, "movePercentile30d": 88.9, "movePercentileFullHistory": 90.3, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 91.2, "classificationPercentile": 90.3, "label": "large", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.31, "movePercentile30d": 59.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 58.1, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 52.9, "classificationPercentile": 59.3, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } } }, { "tenor": "3M", "targetExpiry": 1797611400591, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 52.87, "previous": 53.15, "change": -0.28, "percentChange": -0.53 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.19, "previous": 0.01, "change": 1.18, "percentChange": 11800.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.31, "previous": 3.23, "change": 0.08, "percentChange": 2.48 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.28, "movePercentile30d": 33.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 35.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 47.1, "classificationPercentile": 35.5, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 1.18, "movePercentile30d": 85.2, "movePercentileFullHistory": 80.6, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 85.3, "classificationPercentile": 85.2, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.08, "movePercentile30d": 33.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 35.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 88.2, "classificationPercentile": 35.5, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } } }, { "tenor": "6M", "targetExpiry": 1805473800591, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.58, "previous": 54.34, "change": 0.24, "percentChange": 0.44 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.45, "previous": 0.77, "change": 0.68, "percentChange": 88.31 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.29, "previous": 3.25, "change": 0.04, "percentChange": 1.23 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.24, "movePercentile30d": 44.4, "movePercentileFullHistory": 45.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 44.1, "classificationPercentile": 45.2, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 0.68, "movePercentile30d": 77.8, "movePercentileFullHistory": 74.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 100.0, "classificationPercentile": 77.8, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.04, "movePercentile30d": 18.5, "movePercentileFullHistory": 19.4, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 97.1, "classificationPercentile": 19.4, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } } }, { "tenor": "9M", "targetExpiry": 1813336200591, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.23, "previous": 55.22, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 0.02 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.63, "previous": 0.99, "change": 0.64, "percentChange": 64.65 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.93, "previous": 2.69, "change": 0.24, "percentChange": 8.92 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.01, "movePercentile30d": 3.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 6.5, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 17.6, "classificationPercentile": 6.5, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 0.64, "movePercentile30d": 88.9, "movePercentileFullHistory": 83.9, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 100.0, "classificationPercentile": 88.9, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.24, "movePercentile30d": 92.6, "movePercentileFullHistory": 87.1, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 91.2, "classificationPercentile": 92.6, "label": "large", "observations30d": 27, "observationsFullHistory": 31, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 34 } } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "targetExpiry": 1821285000591, "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": null, "movePercentile30d": null, "movePercentileFullHistory": null, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": null, "classificationPercentile": null, "label": "unavailable", "observations30d": 0, "observationsFullHistory": 0, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 0 } } } ], "listedExpiries": [ { "label": "19SEP26", "expiry": 1789804800000, "tauYears": 0.00176942, "daysToExpiry": 0.646, "expiryClassification": "ultra-short", "rankingEligible": false, "forward": { "current": 2598.72, "previous": 2467.33, "change": 131.39, "percentChange": 5.33 }, "atmIv": { "current": 40.79, "previous": 40.05, "change": 0.74, "percentChange": 1.85 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.48, "previous": 0.03, "change": 3.45, "percentChange": 11500.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.46, "previous": 1.69, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -13.61 }, "svi": { "a": { "current": -0.0856, "previous": 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0.1268, 0.1437, 0.1608, 0.1777, 0.1947, 0.2117, 0.2286, 0.2454, 0.2623, 0.279, 0.2957, 0.3123, 0.3288, 0.3453, 0.3617, 0.3782, 0.3943, 0.4106, 0.4267, 0.4428, 0.4588, 0.4747, 0.4906 ] }, { "label": "25JUN27", "values": [ -0.203, -0.2013, -0.1993, -0.1971, -0.1946, -0.1918, -0.1887, -0.1853, -0.1814, -0.1771, -0.1724, -0.1672, -0.1615, -0.1554, -0.1487, -0.1415, -0.1337, -0.1254, -0.1167, -0.1074, -0.0976, -0.0872, -0.0763, -0.0649, -0.053, -0.0405, -0.0277, -0.0143, -0.0005, 0.0138, 0.0285, 0.0436, 0.0591, 0.0749, 0.0912, 0.1078, 0.1247, 0.1419, 0.1595, 0.1773, 0.1954 ] } ] }, "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Ether options turn call-rich after sharp two-week skew move", "standfirst": "Ether two-week RR25 rose 3.29 volatility points to 2.48%, reversing from an Ether two-week RR25 reading of -0.81% and making calls richer than puts at the cutoff. Ether’s two-week RR25 move ranked at the 93.5 percentile of comparable history. Ether’s 24-hour spot-index return was 5.43%, while Ether one-week ATM IV of 46.19% was 3.99 volatility points below Ether seven-day realised volatility of 50.18%, according to Derivasys data.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-09-18", "headline": "Kraken reports Ethereum withdrawal delays", "summary": "Kraken reported delays affecting Ethereum Gateway ERC20 withdrawals during the observation window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Kraken confirmed delays affecting withdrawals through its Ethereum Gateway ERC20 service.", "events": [ { "eventId": "c0d914f9-8b87-4e9a-95a6-6f8d1bb3e7b5", "title": "Ethereum Gateway ERC20 Withdraw Delays", "publisher": "Kraken", "url": "https://status.kraken.com/incidents/nhkkfrdg21dl", "publishedAt": "2026-09-18T07:48:59+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Ether options turn call-rich after sharp two-week skew move", "standfirst": "Ether two-week RR25 rose 3.29 volatility points to 2.48%, reversing from an Ether two-week RR25 reading of -0.81% and making calls richer than puts at the cutoff. Ether’s two-week RR25 move ranked at the 93.5 percentile of comparable history. Ether’s 24-hour spot-index return was 5.43%, while Ether one-week ATM IV of 46.19% was 3.99 volatility points below Ether seven-day realised volatility of 50.18%, according to Derivasys data.", "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "ETH", "sessionDate": "2026-09-17", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-09-17T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common SPX/VIX session retrieved as of the report cutoff. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 30.25 points, at the 12.4 percentile across 233 prior observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 30.25 points, at the 12.4 percentile across 233 prior observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 48.39, "vix": 15.4399995803833, "vix9d": 13.39, "vix3m": 18.55, "ivSpread": 32.9500004196167, "ivRatio": 3.1340674426882797, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 40.096696179217666, "spxRealisedVol20": 9.851683413758092, "rvSpread": 30.245012765459574, "rvRatio": 4.07003498744405, "rvSpreadPercentile": 12.446351931330472, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 233, "rvRatioPercentile": 27.896995708154506, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 233, "returnCorrelation30": 0.18829146198309643, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.2342629901050473, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "Persisted Derivasys market context; crypto RV uses sqrt(365), SPX RV uses sqrt(252)." } }