{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "CROSS_ASSET", "cadence": "weekly", "reportDate": "2026-10-17", "weekStartDate": "2026-10-10", "weekEndDate": "2026-10-17", "generatedAt": "2026-10-17T17:02:52+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T15:50:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "headline": "Crypto options: XRP and AVAX 1w ATM changes diverge by 13.61 volatility points", "standfirst": "XRP 1W ATM implied volatility rose 7.90 volatility points over seven days while AVAX 1W ATM implied volatility fell 5.71 volatility points. The cross-asset 1W ATM IV weekly change range was 13.61 volatility points. AVAX nevertheless closed with higher 1W ATM IV than XRP. The broader seven-asset comparison includes TRX observations measured at earlier native endpoints.", "marketSummary": "XRP 1W ATM implied volatility rose 7.90 volatility points over seven days, while AVAX 1W ATM implied volatility fell 5.71 volatility points, producing a 1W ATM IV weekly change range of 13.61 volatility points. Their aligned comparison runs from October 10 to October 17 at 16:31 UTC. Derivasys surfaces show closing 1W ATM IV of 54.61% for XRP versus 62.27% for AVAX: the strongest weekly increase differed from the highest closing level.\n\nThe broader divergence paired rising Ether and Solana volatility with falling HYPE volatility. Over seven days, ETH 1W ATM IV rose 5.10 volatility points. SOL 1W ATM IV rose 4.72 volatility points, while HYPE 1W ATM IV fell 4.94 volatility points. BTC 1W ATM IV rose 0.60 volatility points, whereas TRX 1W ATM IV fell 0.75 volatility points. TRX uses earlier native endpoints than the other constituents. A coordinated seven-asset pattern and matching dispersion history are unavailable, so these observations support no historical-rarity claim.", "rows": [ { "asset": "BTC", "currentSnapshotId": 688233, "previousSnapshotId": 617952, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 12, "comparedListedExpiries": 7, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 31.36, "previous": 30.76, "change": 0.6, "percentChange": 1.95 }, "rr25": { "current": -4.46, "previous": -3.02, "change": -1.44, "percentChange": -47.68 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.0, "previous": 1.7, "change": 0.3, "percentChange": 17.65 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 33.49, "previous": 32.06, "change": 1.43, "percentChange": 4.46 }, "rr25": { "current": -4.2, "previous": -3.21, "change": -0.99, "percentChange": -30.84 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.04, "previous": 1.71, "change": 0.33, "percentChange": 19.3 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 35.76, "previous": 35.0, "change": 0.76, "percentChange": 2.17 }, "rr25": { "current": -3.12, "previous": -2.67, "change": -0.45, "percentChange": -16.85 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.14, "previous": 1.95, "change": 0.19, "percentChange": 9.74 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 36.67, "previous": 37.03, "change": -0.36, "percentChange": -0.97 }, "rr25": { "current": -2.28, "previous": -1.63, "change": -0.65, "percentChange": -39.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.22, "previous": 2.27, "change": -0.05, "percentChange": -2.2 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 37.69, "previous": 38.01, "change": -0.32, "percentChange": -0.84 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.62, "previous": -1.26, "change": -0.36, "percentChange": -28.57 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.22, "previous": 2.36, "change": -0.14, "percentChange": -5.93 } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 38.22, "previous": 38.54, "change": -0.32, "percentChange": -0.83 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.41, "previous": -0.98, "change": -0.43, "percentChange": -43.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.25, "previous": 2.42, "change": -0.17, "percentChange": -7.02 } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 31.36, "previous": 30.76, "change": 0.6, "percentChange": 1.95 }, "rr25": { "current": -4.46, "previous": -3.02, "change": -1.44, "percentChange": -47.68 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.0, "previous": 1.7, "change": 0.3, "percentChange": 17.65 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "20OCT26", "daysToExpiry": 2.646, "forward": { "current": 81259.07, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 60, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.42, "rv24hPercent": 26.31, "rv7dPercent": 34.07, "rv30dPercent": 33.68, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. 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"1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 46.0, "previous": 40.9, "change": 5.1, "percentChange": 12.47 }, "rr25": { "current": -4.75, "previous": -3.12, "change": -1.63, "percentChange": -52.24 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.99, "previous": 2.8, "change": 0.19, "percentChange": 6.79 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 47.88, "previous": 42.73, "change": 5.15, "percentChange": 12.05 }, "rr25": { "current": -3.32, "previous": -3.14, "change": -0.18, "percentChange": -5.73 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.02, "previous": 2.86, "change": 0.16, "percentChange": 5.59 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 49.07, "previous": 47.28, "change": 1.79, "percentChange": 3.79 }, "rr25": { "current": -2.75, "previous": -1.86, "change": -0.89, "percentChange": -47.85 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.29, "previous": 2.98, "change": 0.31, "percentChange": 10.4 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 50.59, "previous": 50.24, "change": 0.35, "percentChange": 0.7 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.48, "previous": -0.65, "change": -0.83, "percentChange": -127.69 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.4, "previous": 3.13, "change": 0.27, "percentChange": 8.63 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 51.94, "previous": 52.28, "change": -0.34, "percentChange": -0.65 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.65, "previous": -0.39, "change": -0.26, "percentChange": -66.67 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.37, "previous": 3.09, "change": 0.28, "percentChange": 9.06 } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 52.83, "previous": 53.2, "change": -0.37, "percentChange": -0.7 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.22, "previous": 0.24, "change": -0.02, "percentChange": -8.33 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.08, "previous": 2.98, "change": 0.1, "percentChange": 3.36 } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 46.0, "previous": 40.9, "change": 5.1, "percentChange": 12.47 }, "rr25": { "current": -4.75, "previous": -3.12, "change": -1.63, "percentChange": -52.24 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.99, "previous": 2.8, "change": 0.19, "percentChange": 6.79 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "20OCT26", "daysToExpiry": 2.646, "forward": { "current": 2405.28, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 57, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -1.47, "rv24hPercent": 39.1, "rv7dPercent": 50.7, "rv30dPercent": 44.99, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. 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"points[timestamp=2026-10-02T16:31:00+00:00]", "points[timestamp=2026-10-09T16:31:00+00:00]" ] }, { "startAt": "2026-10-03T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "valuePercent": -6.64, "sourceRefs": [ "points[timestamp=2026-10-03T16:31:00+00:00]", "points[timestamp=2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00]" ] } ] } } } }, "spotMove7dPercent": -3.98, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 46.0, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -4.7, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 6.9, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 1.01 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "SOL", "currentSnapshotId": 688235, "previousSnapshotId": 617947, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 4, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.64, "previous": 48.92, "change": 4.72, "percentChange": 9.65 }, "rr25": { "current": -3.42, "previous": -1.07, "change": -2.35, "percentChange": -219.63 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.88, "previous": 2.67, "change": 1.21, "percentChange": 45.32 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.77, "previous": 48.82, "change": 4.95, "percentChange": 10.14 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.77, "previous": 1.34, "change": -3.11, "percentChange": -232.09 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.45, "previous": 3.2, "change": 1.25, "percentChange": 39.06 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.68, "previous": 50.75, "change": 3.93, "percentChange": 7.74 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.02, "previous": 3.02, "change": -3.0, "percentChange": -99.34 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.64, "previous": 4.62, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 0.43 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not 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"daysToExpiry": 5.646, "forward": { "current": 103.44, "previous": 110.31, "change": -6.87, "percentChange": -6.23 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -1.02, "rv24hPercent": 46.37, "rv7dPercent": 63.21, "rv30dPercent": 57.91, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { 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RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. 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"2026-08-21T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 91.42, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-22T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 93.98, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-23T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 95.46, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-24T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 97.14, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-25T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 98.16, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-26T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 95.73, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-27T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 108.03, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-28T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 104.86, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "SOL-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 104.924, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-30T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 106.5751, "venue": 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"sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-04T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 101.8344, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-05T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 103.2957, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-06T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 106.0182, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-07T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 103.4579, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-08T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 103.9055, 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"sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "HYPE-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-26T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 80.127, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "HYPE-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-27T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 84.675, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "HYPE-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-28T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81.451, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "HYPE-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 83.035, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-30T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 83.586, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-31T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81.846, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 82.327, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-02T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81.908, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-03T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 83.539, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-04T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 84.925, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-05T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 85.698, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-06T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 88.118, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-07T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 85.365, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-08T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 83.889, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-09T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 85.381, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 79.246, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-11T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81.409, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-12T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 80.193, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-13T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 78.356, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 80.554, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 77.149, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 78.785, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81.942, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 91.543, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 92.899, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 92.81, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-21T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 93.389, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "HYPE-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 94.934, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 93.74, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-24T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 93.61, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-25T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 91.34, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "HYPE-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 92.406, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-27T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 91.266, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-28T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 89.319, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "HYPE-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-29T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 86.716, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-09-30T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 88.917, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 87.324, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-02T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 89.272, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 88.991, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 89.869, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 92.547, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 92.099, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 88.364, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 84.157, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-09T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 84.824, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 85.384, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 86.808, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 84.258, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81.329, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 79.417, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 80.902, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 79.098, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 78.454, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null } ], "historyUnavailableReason": null, "basis": "100 * (exact end index price / exact start index price - 1); no interpolation or proxy", "windows": { "24h": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 79.098, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 78.454, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "HYPE-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "hype_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": -0.81, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "803aa98b2570735fbaf965a052c2f77f89e79b76a3710adf65f369e0cbab4840", "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 16.9, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "sourceSha256": "803aa98b2570735fbaf965a052c2f77f89e79b76a3710adf65f369e0cbab4840", "unavailableReason": null, "samples": [ { "startAt": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "valuePercent": 7.09, "sourceRefs": [ "points[timestamp=2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00]", "points[timestamp=2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00]" ] }, { "startAt": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-08-20T16:31:00+00:00", "valuePercent": 18.13, "sourceRefs": [ "points[timestamp=2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00]", "points[timestamp=2026-08-20T16:31:00+00:00]" ] }, { "startAt": 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"points[timestamp=2026-10-01T16:31:00+00:00]", "points[timestamp=2026-10-08T16:31:00+00:00]" ] }, { "startAt": "2026-10-02T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-09T16:31:00+00:00", "valuePercent": -4.98, "sourceRefs": [ "points[timestamp=2026-10-02T16:31:00+00:00]", "points[timestamp=2026-10-09T16:31:00+00:00]" ] }, { "startAt": "2026-10-03T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "valuePercent": -4.05, "sourceRefs": [ "points[timestamp=2026-10-03T16:31:00+00:00]", "points[timestamp=2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00]" ] } ] } } } }, "spotMove7dPercent": -8.12, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 50.84, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -11.9, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 2.22, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -12.51 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotId": 688231, "previousSnapshotId": 617946, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, 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"change": -4.26, "percentChange": -89.68 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.13, "previous": 4.15, "change": -0.02, "percentChange": -0.48 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 62.27, "previous": 67.98, "change": -5.71, "percentChange": 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"24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 99.5, "7d": 99.5, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "84f60f19085248a1b5c9504d5fe85b54b471acab79686921204f59913c6a0b25", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 6.32, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "AVAX-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 6.626, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "AVAX-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-20T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 7.118, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "AVAX-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-21T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 7.603, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "AVAX-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-22T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 7.522, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "AVAX-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-23T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 7.556, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "AVAX-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-24T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 7.612, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "AVAX-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-25T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 7.488, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "AVAX-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, 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"source": "nearestEligibleForwardPercentChange", "label": "7d forward-proxy return", "unit": "percent" }, "assets": [ "BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 62.27, "lowest": 21.83, "spread": 40.44, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.8525, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 62.27, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 31.36 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 46.0 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": 53.64 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.61 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 50.84 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 62.27 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.83 } ], "previousSpread": 45.4, "spreadChange": -4.96, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 7.9, "lowest": -5.71, "spread": 13.61, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", 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"largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -5.86, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": -1.44 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": -1.63 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -2.35 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": -2.98 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.07 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -5.86 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.22 } ] } }, "coordinatedSkewShift": null, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "XRP", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": 7.9 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": null }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": null }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": null }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 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6, "asset": "BTC", "value": 31.36, "previousRank": 6, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 7, "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.83, "previousRank": 7, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.9, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "ETH", "value": 5.1, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "SOL", "value": 4.72, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "BTC", "value": 0.6, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 5, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.75, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 6, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -4.94, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 7, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -5.71, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.9, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -5.71, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "ETH", "value": 5.1, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -4.94, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 5, "asset": "SOL", "value": 4.72, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 6, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.75, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 7, "asset": "BTC", "value": 0.6, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.88, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": -2.7, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "BTC", "value": -2.71, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "ETH", "value": -4.7, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 5, "asset": "SOL", "value": -9.57, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 6, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -11.9, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 7, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -16.74, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.41, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.13, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": -1.14, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -2.03, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 }, { "rank": 5, "asset": "SOL", "value": -3.42, "previousRank": 5, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 6, "asset": "BTC", "value": -4.46, "previousRank": 6, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 7, "asset": "ETH", "value": -4.75, "previousRank": 7, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "ETH", "value": -4.75, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "BTC", "value": -4.46, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "SOL", "value": -3.42, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -2.03, "previousRank": 7, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 5, "asset": "XRP", "value": -1.14, "previousRank": 6, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 6, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.13, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": -2 }, { "rank": 7, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.41, "previousRank": 5, "rankChange": -2 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "BTC", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "ETH", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "SOL", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "BTC", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "ETH", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "SOL", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance7d": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.03, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "SOL", "value": -6.23, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -6.76, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -8.23, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 5, "asset": "XRP", "value": -8.51, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "BTC", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "ETH", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.9, "groupMedian": 0.6, "distanceFromMedian": 7.3 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.83, "groupMedian": 50.84, "distanceFromMedian": -29.01 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.41, "groupMedian": -2.03, "distanceFromMedian": 5.44 }, { "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility", "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.88, "groupMedian": -4.7, "distanceFromMedian": 12.58 } ], "relativeValueObservation": { "richestAsset": "TRX", "cheapestAsset": "AVAX", "highestSpreadAsset": "TRX", "lowestSpreadAsset": "AVAX", "spread": 24.62, "metric": "1W ATM IV minus 7D realised volatility", "interpretation": "TRX has the highest and AVAX the lowest one-week IV minus seven-day RV spread, with an unsigned 24.62 volatility-point cross-sectional dispersion." }, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 5, "coordinatedSkewShiftMateriality": { "statistic": "weakest absolute 1W RR25 change when all three changes share a sign; otherwise zero", "unit": "volatility points", "basis": "all valid prior aligned BTC/ETH/SOL 23-25h periods", "percentileDefinition": "100 * prior joint magnitudes <= current joint magnitude / observations", "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 0, "currentJointMagnitudeVolPoints": null, "percentile": null, "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable", "excluded": { "invalidMeasurements": 5, "currentOrFuture": 0, "overlappingCurrentWindow": 0, "duplicatePeriods": 0, "conflictingDays": 0 }, "samples": [] }, "coordinatedSkewShiftEligibility": { "policy": "native-utc-endpoints-exact-clock-and-horizon-v1", "excluded": { "invalidMeasurements": 5, "currentOrFuture": 0, "overlappingCurrentWindow": 0, "duplicatePeriods": 0, "conflictingDays": 0, "incompatibleClocks": 0, "incompatibleDuration": 0, "unknownEndpoints": 0, "unsupportedHorizon": 0 }, "currentEligibilityReason": null, "comparisonInterval": { "currentSnapshotAt": null, "previousSnapshotAt": null } }, "metricContexts": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset exact-UTC-clock same-duration cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.atmIvLevel", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.atmIvLevel", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.atmIvLevel" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable", "comparableAssets": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "HYPE", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "samples": [], "excluded": { "invalidMeasurements": 4, "unknownEndpoints": 0, "unsupportedHorizon": 0, "incompatibleDuration": 0, "incompatibleClocks": 1, "currentOrFuture": 0, "overlappingCurrentWindow": 0, "duplicatePeriods": 0, "conflictingDays": 0 }, "eligibilityPolicy": "native-utc-endpoints-exact-clock-and-horizon-v1", "currentEligibilityReason": "incompatibleClocks", "comparisonInterval": null }, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset exact-UTC-clock same-duration cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.atmIvChange", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.atmIvChange", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.atmIvChange" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable", "comparableAssets": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "HYPE", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "samples": [], "excluded": { "invalidMeasurements": 4, "unknownEndpoints": 0, "unsupportedHorizon": 0, "incompatibleDuration": 0, "incompatibleClocks": 1, "currentOrFuture": 0, "overlappingCurrentWindow": 0, "duplicatePeriods": 0, "conflictingDays": 0 }, "eligibilityPolicy": "native-utc-endpoints-exact-clock-and-horizon-v1", "currentEligibilityReason": "incompatibleClocks", "comparisonInterval": null }, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset exact-UTC-clock same-duration cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.rr25Level", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.rr25Level", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.rr25Level" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable", "comparableAssets": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "HYPE", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "samples": [], "excluded": { "invalidMeasurements": 4, "unknownEndpoints": 0, "unsupportedHorizon": 0, "incompatibleDuration": 0, "incompatibleClocks": 1, "currentOrFuture": 0, "overlappingCurrentWindow": 0, "duplicatePeriods": 0, "conflictingDays": 0 }, "eligibilityPolicy": "native-utc-endpoints-exact-clock-and-horizon-v1", "currentEligibilityReason": "incompatibleClocks", "comparisonInterval": null }, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset exact-UTC-clock same-duration cross-sectional ranges; termStructure.currentSlope", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.termStructure.currentSlope", "crossAssetAnalysis.termStructure.currentSlope" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable", "comparableAssets": [], "samples": [], "excluded": { "invalidMeasurements": 4, "unknownEndpoints": 0, "unsupportedHorizon": 0, "incompatibleDuration": 0, "incompatibleClocks": 1, "currentOrFuture": 0, "overlappingCurrentWindow": 0, "duplicatePeriods": 0, "conflictingDays": 0 }, "eligibilityPolicy": "native-utc-endpoints-exact-clock-and-horizon-v1", "currentEligibilityReason": "incompatibleClocks", "comparisonInterval": null }, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset exact-UTC-clock same-duration cross-sectional ranges; relativeValue.ivMinusRealised7d", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.relativeValue.ivMinusRealised7d", "crossAssetAnalysis.relativeValue.ivMinusRealised7d" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable", "comparableAssets": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "HYPE", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "samples": [], "excluded": { "invalidMeasurements": 4, "unknownEndpoints": 0, "unsupportedHorizon": 0, "incompatibleDuration": 0, "incompatibleClocks": 1, "currentOrFuture": 0, "overlappingCurrentWindow": 0, "duplicatePeriods": 0, "conflictingDays": 0 }, "eligibilityPolicy": "native-utc-endpoints-exact-clock-and-horizon-v1", "currentEligibilityReason": "incompatibleClocks", "comparisonInterval": null } }, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Percentiles require sufficient valid prior matching metric history." }, "correlations": { "metric": "nearestEligibleForwardPercentChange", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "BTC", "ETH" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "BTC", "SOL" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "BTC", "XRP" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "BTC", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "BTC", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "BTC", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "ETH", "SOL" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "ETH", "XRP" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "ETH", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "ETH", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "ETH", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 0 }, { "assets": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "SOL", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "SOL", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "SOL", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 } ], "availabilityNote": "Pair correlations require 10 aligned prior reports." }, "evidence": [ { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 7.9, "lowest": -5.71, "spread": 13.61, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 7.9, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 0.6 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 5.1 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": 4.72 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.9 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -4.94 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -5.71 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.75 } ] }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 62.27, "lowest": 21.83, "spread": 40.44, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.8525, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 62.27, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 31.36 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 46.0 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": 53.64 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.61 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 50.84 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 62.27 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.83 } ], "previousSpread": 45.4, "spreadChange": -4.96, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "ETH", "highest": 3.41, "lowest": -4.75, "spread": 8.16, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "ETH", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -4.75, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": -4.46 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": -4.75 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -3.42 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": -1.14 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.13 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -2.03 }, { "asset": 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"exclusions": [ "inconsistent-cross-asset-snapshot-clocks" ], "statement": "Weekly market pattern unavailable or ineligible" }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Crypto options: XRP and AVAX 1w ATM changes diverge by 13.61 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "XRP 1W ATM implied volatility rose 7.90 volatility points over seven days, while AVAX 1W ATM implied volatility fell 5.71 volatility points, producing a 1W ATM IV weekly change range of 13.61 volatility points. Their aligned comparison runs from October 10 to October 17 at 16:31 UTC. Derivasys surfaces show closing 1W ATM IV of 54.61% for XRP versus 62.27% for AVAX: the strongest weekly increase differed from the highest closing level.\n\nThe broader divergence paired rising Ether and Solana volatility with falling HYPE volatility. Over seven days, ETH 1W ATM IV rose 5.10 volatility points. SOL 1W ATM IV rose 4.72 volatility points, while HYPE 1W ATM IV fell 4.94 volatility points. BTC 1W ATM IV rose 0.60 volatility points, whereas TRX 1W ATM IV fell 0.75 volatility points. TRX uses earlier native endpoints than the other constituents. A coordinated seven-asset pattern and matching dispersion history are unavailable, so these observations support no historical-rarity claim.", "evidenceIds": [ "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "In Solana-specific context, Decrypt’s developing, single-source [October 12 report](https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol) said Nasdaq-listed DeFi Development continued buying SOL, bringing its holdings to about 2.59 million SOL, while weekly purchases kept shrinking. That reporting provides constituent context; it establishes no clear link to Solana’s options repricing or the XRP–AVAX divergence.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0" ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "GLOBAL", "HYPE", "MACRO", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "completedScopes": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "GLOBAL", "HYPE", "MACRO", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "SOL" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-10-10T15:50:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 21, "hasMore": 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The cross-asset 1W ATM IV weekly change range was 13.61 volatility points. AVAX nevertheless closed with higher 1W ATM IV than XRP. The broader seven-asset comparison includes TRX observations measured at earlier native endpoints." }, "items": [ { "id": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "sourceId": "decrypt", "publisher": "Decrypt", "title": "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi Development Keeps Buying SOL as CHAD Preferred Stock Hits Record", "url": "https://decrypt.co/380752/solana-treasury-firm-defi-development-keeps-buying-sol", "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T19:07:30+00:00", "summary": "The Nasdaq-listed company now holds about 2.59 million SOL, but its weekly purchases keep shrinking.", "matchedTerms": [ "CHAD Preferred Stock Hits", "Development Keeps Buying SOL", "Record The Nasdaq-listed", "SOL", "Solana", "Solana Treasury Firm DeFi" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "institutional_adoption" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 36, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 36.1, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.454, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6025, "catalystScore": 0.087, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.087, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Source-backed reporting relevant to CROSS_ASSET" ], "selectionReason": "Selected as contemporaneous report context; association is not proof of causation.", "canonicalEventId": "f531c462-d429-40e5-89c3-663206205cd0", "placement": { "version": 1, "reportKey": "weekly:CROSS_ASSET", "chosenStoryId": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "inputSha256": "d0a627119c58c3d7b3261f3e7207d3c17876d1631af4ecb2c5e1fcb76e3d7507", "questionVersion": "cross-asset-selected-thesis-v1", "sourceSha256": "816756909951d50a47d4e68668d5b2102bcde978668fd131cd53687b2da8d773", "role": "asset-context", "probability": 0.03, "status": "classified" } } ] }, "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-17T17:17:16+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-10T15:50:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Crypto options: XRP and AVAX 1w ATM changes diverge by 13.61 volatility points", "standfirst": "XRP 1W ATM implied volatility rose 7.90 volatility points over seven days while AVAX 1W ATM implied volatility fell 5.71 volatility points. The cross-asset 1W ATM IV weekly change range was 13.61 volatility points. AVAX nevertheless closed with higher 1W ATM IV than XRP. The broader seven-asset comparison includes TRX observations measured at earlier native endpoints.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-10", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-11", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-12", "headline": "Dated news context 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"policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": false, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 27.22 }, "story": "XRP drove 1W ATM IV divergence as it rose 7.90 volatility points and cross-asset dispersion reached 13.61", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "AVAX", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 7.9, "lowest": -5.71, "spread": 13.61, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 7.9, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 0.6 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 5.1 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": 4.72 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.9 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -4.94 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -5.71 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.75 } ] }, "supportingSpreadChange": null, "selectionScore": 27.22, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "relativeSkew", "metricLabel": "relative skew", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 8.16, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 8.16, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset exact-UTC-clock same-duration cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.rr25Level", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.rr25Level", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.rr25Level" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 4.08, "magnitudeScore": 8.16, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 8.16, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": false, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 8.16 }, "story": "1W RR25 level dispersion widened by 1.21 volatility points to 8.16 between TRX and ETH", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "ETH", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "ETH", "highest": 3.41, "lowest": -4.75, "spread": 8.16, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "ETH", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -4.75, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": -4.46 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": -4.75 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -3.42 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": -1.14 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.13 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -2.03 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.41 } ], "previousSpread": 6.95, "spreadChange": 1.21, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "supportingSpreadChange": 1.21, "selectionScore": 8.16, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "relativeVolatility", "metricLabel": "relative volatility", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 40.44, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 8.088, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset exact-UTC-clock same-duration cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.atmIvLevel", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.atmIvLevel", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.atmIvLevel" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 4.044, "magnitudeScore": 8.088, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 8.088, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) 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"spread": 40.44, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.8525, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 62.27, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 31.36 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 46.0 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": 53.64 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.61 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 50.84 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 62.27 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.83 } ], "previousSpread": 45.4, "spreadChange": -4.96, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "supportingSpreadChange": -4.96, "selectionScore": 8.088, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "impliedRealised", "metricLabel": "implied-versus-realised spread", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 24.62, "previous": null, 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}, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": false, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 4.924 }, "story": "TRX leads AVAX by 24.62 volatility points in 1w iv minus 7d realised volatility dispersion", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "AVAX", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", 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