{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "CROSS_ASSET", "cadence": "weekly", "reportDate": "2026-10-10", "weekStartDate": "2026-10-03", "weekEndDate": "2026-10-10", "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T17:06:18+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "headline": "Crypto options: TRX's rise and AVAX's fall mark mixed 1w ATM IV as all seven spot indices fall", "standfirst": "All seven crypto spot indices fell over seven days while 1W ATM implied volatility recorded four rises and three falls. TRX's 1W ATM implied volatility rose 5.33 volatility points, while AVAX's 1W ATM implied volatility fell 13.92 volatility points. The range of 1W ATM implied-volatility changes was 19.25 volatility points. The comparison runs from October 3 to October 10, 2026, with both Derivasys snapshots taken at 17:02 UTC.", "marketSummary": "Over seven days, all seven crypto spot indices declined while 1W ATM implied volatility recorded four rises and three falls. TRX's 1W ATM implied volatility rose 5.33 volatility points. AVAX's 1W ATM implied volatility fell 13.92 volatility points. The seven-day range of 1W ATM implied-volatility changes was 19.25 volatility points. Between October 3 and October 10, both at 17:02 UTC, the remaining 1W ATM IV increases were ETH +1.74, BTC +0.75 and HYPE +0.09 volatility points; the remaining 1W ATM IV decreases were XRP -11.84 and SOL -4.01 volatility points.\n\nThe ordering of spot losses differed from the ordering of options repricing. Seven-day spot-index returns were SOL -8.13%, ETH -6.65%, XRP -5.74%, AVAX -5.08%, HYPE -3.90%, BTC -2.25% and TRX -1.82%. SOL had the largest seven-day spot-index decline, while AVAX had the largest seven-day fall in 1W ATM IV.\n\nRelative volatility levels converged over the October 3–10 baseline: the AVAX–TRX cross-sectional 1W ATM IV level range narrowed from 64.53 to 45.28 volatility points. AVAX retained the highest cutoff 1W ATM IV at 67.91%, versus TRX’s lowest at 22.63%. Skew dispersion widened over the same baseline: the AVAX–ETH cross-sectional 1W RR25 level range increased from 6.07 to 7.19 volatility points.", "rows": [ { "asset": "BTC", "currentSnapshotId": 618164, "previousSnapshotId": 549711, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 12, "comparedListedExpiries": 8, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 30.3, "previous": 29.55, "change": 0.75, "percentChange": 2.54 }, "rr25": { "current": -2.99, "previous": -0.58, "change": -2.41, "percentChange": -415.52 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.71, "previous": 1.58, "change": 0.13, "percentChange": 8.23 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.75, "movePercentile30d": 16.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 14.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 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1.74 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -4.01 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": -11.84 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.09 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -13.92 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 5.33 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "ETH", "highest": 4.16, "lowest": -3.03, "spread": 7.19, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 4.16, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": -2.99 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": -3.03 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -0.61 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.82 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.21 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 4.16 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.27 } ], "previousSpread": 6.07, "spreadChange": 1.12, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "BTC", "highest": 1.13, "lowest": -2.41, "spread": 3.54, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "BTC", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -2.41, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": -2.41 }, { 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"previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "BTC", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "ETH", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "AVAX", "value": -13.92, "groupMedian": 0.09, "distanceFromMedian": -14.01 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 22.63, "groupMedian": 47.57, "distanceFromMedian": -24.94 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "AVAX", "value": 4.16, "groupMedian": -0.27, "distanceFromMedian": 4.43 }, { "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility", "asset": "TRX", "value": 10.46, "groupMedian": 0.85, "distanceFromMedian": 9.61 } ], "relativeValueObservation": { "richestAsset": "TRX", "cheapestAsset": "AVAX", "highestSpreadAsset": "TRX", "lowestSpreadAsset": "AVAX", "spread": 16.6, "metric": "1W ATM IV minus 7D realised volatility", "interpretation": "TRX has the highest and AVAX the lowest one-week 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"SOL", "value": 3.06 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -2.9 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 5.46 } ] } ] }, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset same-cadence cross-sectional ranges; termStructure.currentSlope", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.termStructure.currentSlope", "crossAssetAnalysis.termStructure.currentSlope" ], "unavailableReason": "current-measurements-unavailable", "comparableAssets": [], "samples": [] }, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset same-cadence cross-sectional ranges; relativeValue.ivMinusRealised7d", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ 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Source-backed planning category: protocol. Retain the canonical market category and XRP tag; attribute the technical claim to CoinDesk as single-source reporting.", "matchedTerms": [ "XRP" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Source-backed reporting relevant to CROSS_ASSET" ], "selectionReason": "Selected as contemporaneous report context; association is not proof of causation.", "canonicalEventId": "5b76fb31-4a4e-4409-bc0b-8cd28096db2a", "placement": { "version": 1, "reportKey": "weekly:CROSS_ASSET", "chosenStoryId": "weekly-market-spot-iv-pattern", "inputSha256": "8b96e47629ffbcdb51b998cd2c38953be3562fb761a1b08753384ca1152c9df5", "questionVersion": "cross-asset-selected-thesis-v1", "sourceSha256": "5233be8b46fd806d5e6f2c6aa0da235f46cec7ac775abda541a340b5bf317751", "role": "asset-context", "probability": null, "status": "fallback" } }, { "id": "90f4ca14-392b-4edc-b8a1-ec97ebb13513", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Thailand opens door to locally listed bitcoin and ether ETFs", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/09/thailand-opens-door-to-locally-listed-bitcoin-and-ether-etfs", "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T10:16:55+00:00", "summary": "CoinDesk reports Thailand's locally listed Bitcoin and Ether ETF rules. Source-backed planning category: spot_etf. Explicit BTC and ETH headline relevance; single-source reporting rather than independently verified regulatory provenance.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "ETH" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Source-backed reporting relevant to CROSS_ASSET" ], "selectionReason": "Selected as contemporaneous report context; association is not proof of causation.", "canonicalEventId": "90f4ca14-392b-4edc-b8a1-ec97ebb13513", "placement": { "version": 1, "reportKey": "weekly:CROSS_ASSET", "chosenStoryId": "weekly-market-spot-iv-pattern", "inputSha256": "8b96e47629ffbcdb51b998cd2c38953be3562fb761a1b08753384ca1152c9df5", "questionVersion": "cross-asset-selected-thesis-v1", "sourceSha256": "50d1ad834f1074f96aa6f491685f8fe5f24a04ebe5ec873a37cca7683c9d9d07", "role": "asset-context", "probability": null, "status": "fallback" } }, { "id": "5e8872f7-ec19-4323-87dd-f00bb9f4e0e8", "sourceId": "solana_news", "publisher": "Solana Foundation", "title": "Samsung Partners with Solana to Natively Deliver Stablecoins in Samsung Wallet to 82 Million U.S. Galaxy Devices", "url": "https://solana.com/news/samsung-wallet", "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T23:30:00+00:00", "summary": "The Solana Foundation announces Samsung Wallet USDC transfers on Solana beginning in the last week of October 2026. Source-backed planning category: broader_crypto. Preserve the future rollout timing; the announcement does not establish that the service was already live at this cutoff.", "matchedTerms": [ "SOL", "stablecoins" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "official", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 57, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 57.1, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.8993, "signals": { "confidence": 0.71, "importance": 0.59, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.8993, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.8993, "catalystScore": 0.226, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.226, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "confirmed" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": false }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Source-backed reporting relevant to CROSS_ASSET" ], "selectionReason": "Selected as contemporaneous report context; association is not proof of causation.", "canonicalEventId": "5e8872f7-ec19-4323-87dd-f00bb9f4e0e8", "placement": { "version": 1, "reportKey": "weekly:CROSS_ASSET", "chosenStoryId": "weekly-market-spot-iv-pattern", "inputSha256": "8b96e47629ffbcdb51b998cd2c38953be3562fb761a1b08753384ca1152c9df5", "questionVersion": "cross-asset-selected-thesis-v1", "sourceSha256": "bc33d005e205dc88062eaac68c8e01a34e9d743e01f6d18918bb3683ec9f623d", "role": "asset-context", "probability": null, "status": "fallback" } } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces and realised-volatility observations", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot seven days earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "tenors": "Standard-tenor values are published only when listed expiries bracket the target on both endpoints; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "performance": "Seven-day performance uses the nearest eligible listed forward available at both endpoints.", "spotReturns": "Exact seven-day index endpoint return ending at each asset's current snapshot; surface comparisons may span a different interval; not a forecast." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 31, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid seven-day baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": -3.12, "rr25Change": -0.87, "bf25Change": 0.42 }, "spotReturnAudit": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "Exact seven-day index endpoint return ending at each asset's current snapshot; surface comparisons may span a different interval; not a forecast.", "observations": [ { "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "surfaceComparison": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", 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recorded four rises and three falls. TRX's 1W ATM implied volatility rose 5.33 volatility points. AVAX's 1W ATM implied volatility fell 13.92 volatility points. The seven-day range of 1W ATM implied-volatility changes was 19.25 volatility points. Between October 3 and October 10, both at 17:02 UTC, the remaining 1W ATM IV increases were ETH +1.74, BTC +0.75 and HYPE +0.09 volatility points; the remaining 1W ATM IV decreases were XRP -11.84 and SOL -4.01 volatility points.\n\nThe ordering of spot losses differed from the ordering of options repricing. Seven-day spot-index returns were SOL -8.13%, ETH -6.65%, XRP -5.74%, AVAX -5.08%, HYPE -3.90%, BTC -2.25% and TRX -1.82%. SOL had the largest seven-day spot-index decline, while AVAX had the largest seven-day fall in 1W ATM IV.\n\nRelative volatility levels converged over the October 3–10 baseline: the AVAX–TRX cross-sectional 1W ATM IV level range narrowed from 64.53 to 45.28 volatility points. AVAX retained the highest cutoff 1W ATM IV at 67.91%, versus TRX’s lowest at 22.63%. Skew dispersion widened over the same baseline: the AVAX–ETH cross-sectional 1W RR25 level range increased from 6.07 to 7.19 volatility points.", "evidenceIds": [ "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "Constituent news included an XRP Ledger bug patch reported by [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/10/xrp-ledger-patched-decade-old-bug-that-could-create-billions-of-dollars-in-xrp-from-nothing) and [CoinDesk’s report](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/09/thailand-opens-door-to-locally-listed-bitcoin-and-ether-etfs) that Thailand opened access to locally listed Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. The [Solana Foundation](https://solana.com/news/samsung-wallet) announced Samsung Wallet USDC transfers on Solana scheduled to begin in the last week of October 2026. These items provide constituent context without establishing a cause for the measured divergence.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "5b76fb31-4a4e-4409-bc0b-8cd28096db2a", "90f4ca14-392b-4edc-b8a1-ec97ebb13513", "5e8872f7-ec19-4323-87dd-f00bb9f4e0e8" ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "GLOBAL", "HYPE", "MACRO", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "completedScopes": [ "AVAX", "BTC", "ETH", "GLOBAL", "HYPE", "MACRO", "SOL", "TRX", "XRP" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "BTC" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": 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TRX's 1W ATM implied volatility rose 5.33 volatility points, while AVAX's 1W ATM implied volatility fell 13.92 volatility points. The range of 1W ATM implied-volatility changes was 19.25 volatility points. The comparison runs from October 3 to October 10, 2026, with both Derivasys snapshots taken at 17:02 UTC.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-03", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-04", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-05", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-06", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-07", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No 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"exclusions": [], "statement": "All seven crypto spot indices fall while one-week implied volatility diverges" }, "selectionScore": 139.5, "selectionReason": "Verified seven-asset common spot direction with mixed weekly IV takes priority over individual ranges and ordinary levels; other eligible typed whole-market observations retain their scores; operational selection rule, no historical rarity claim" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "crossAssetDivergence", "metricLabel": "cross-asset divergence", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 19.25, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 38.5, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset same-cadence cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.atmIvChange", "percentile": null, "observations": 3, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "end": "2026-09-26T17:24:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.atmIvChange", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.atmIvChange" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 19.25, "magnitudeScore": 38.5, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 38.5, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "weekly-movement", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": true, "bonus": 100.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 100.0, "selectionScore": 138.5 }, "story": "AVAX drove 1W ATM IV divergence as it fell 13.92 volatility points and cross-asset dispersion reached 19.25", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 5.33, "lowest": -13.92, "spread": 19.25, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -13.92, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 0.75 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 1.74 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -4.01 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": -11.84 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.09 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -13.92 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 5.33 } ] }, "supportingSpreadChange": null, "selectionScore": 138.5, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID; weekly reporting-period movement or established matching-history level extreme takes priority over ordinary current levels" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "relativeVolatility", "metricLabel": "relative volatility", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 45.28, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 9.056, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset same-cadence cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.atmIvLevel", "percentile": null, "observations": 3, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "end": "2026-09-26T17:24:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.atmIvLevel", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.atmIvLevel" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 4.528, "magnitudeScore": 9.056, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 9.056, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": true, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 9.056 }, "story": "1W ATM IV level dispersion narrowed by 19.25 volatility points to 45.28 between AVAX and TRX", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 67.91, "lowest": 22.63, "spread": 45.28, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.0009, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 67.91, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 30.3 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 41.22 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": 49.12 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 47.57 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 56.01 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 67.91 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 22.63 } ], "previousSpread": 64.53, "spreadChange": -19.25, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "supportingSpreadChange": -19.25, "selectionScore": 9.056, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "relativeSkew", "metricLabel": "relative skew", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 7.19, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 7.19, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset same-cadence cross-sectional ranges; oneWeek.rr25Level", "percentile": null, "observations": 3, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "end": "2026-09-26T17:24:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.oneWeek.rr25Level", "crossAssetAnalysis.oneWeek.rr25Level" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 3.595, "magnitudeScore": 7.19, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 7.19, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": true, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 7.19 }, "story": "1W RR25 level dispersion widened by 1.12 volatility points to 7.19 between AVAX and ETH", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "ETH", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "ETH", "highest": 4.16, "lowest": -3.03, "spread": 7.19, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 4.16, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": -2.99 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": -3.03 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -0.61 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.82 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.21 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 4.16 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.27 } ], "previousSpread": 6.07, "spreadChange": 1.12, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "supportingSpreadChange": 1.12, "selectionScore": 7.19, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "impliedRealised", "metricLabel": "implied-versus-realised spread", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 16.6, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 3.32, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "prior aligned same-asset same-cadence cross-sectional ranges; relativeValue.ivMinusRealised7d", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "storedHistoricalReports.relativeValue.ivMinusRealised7d", "crossAssetAnalysis.relativeValue.ivMinusRealised7d" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.66, "magnitudeScore": 3.32, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 3.32, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": true, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 3.32 }, "story": "TRX leads AVAX by 16.60 volatility points in 1w iv minus 7d realised volatility dispersion", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "AVAX", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 10.46, "lowest": -6.14, "spread": 16.6, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 10.46, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": 0.57 }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": 4.41 }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": 3.21 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.13 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.85 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -6.14 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 10.46 } ] }, "supportingSpreadChange": null, "selectionScore": 3.32, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "cross-asset-cross-spot-performance", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "forward", "metricLabel": "forward-proxy return", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 5.31, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 3.7929, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-spot-performance]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "percent", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 2.655, "magnitudeScore": 5.31, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 0.7142857142857143, "totalScore": 3.7929, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": true, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": -2.8447, "selectionScore": 0.9482 }, "story": "TRX leads SOL by 5.31 percentage points in 7d forward-proxy performance dispersion", "source": "crossAssetAnalysis.evidence[cross-asset-cross-spot-performance]", "scope": "cross-asset", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "SOL", "evidence": { "id": "cross-asset-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "7D forward-proxy performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "SOL", "highest": -2.94, "lowest": -8.25, "spread": 5.31, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "SOL", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -8.25, "values": [ { "asset": "BTC", "value": null }, { "asset": "ETH", "value": null }, { "asset": "SOL", "value": -8.25 }, { "asset": "XRP", "value": -6.04 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -4.25 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -5.33 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -2.94 } ] }, "supportingSpreadChange": null, "selectionScore": 0.948225, "selectionReason": "Prefer an options comparison to a spot recap" } ], "reportSignals": { "schemaVersion": 1, "reportKey": "weekly:CROSS_ASSET", "cadence": "weekly", "reportDate": "2026-10-10", "canonicalReportUrl": "https://www.derivasys.com/reports/weekly/cross-asset/2026-10-10/", "comparisonWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "startAtReason": null, "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "basis": "stored surface snapshots; per-asset actual timestamps are in provenance.snapshots", "targetDuration": "7d" }, "leadSignal": { "id": "weekly-market-spot-iv-pattern", "asset": "CROSS_ASSET", "metric": "crossAssetDivergence", "metricLabel": "cross-asset divergence", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "scope": "cross-asset", "observationKind": "change", "current": null, "previous": null, "change": 19.25, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "source": "weeklyMarketPattern", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "weeklyMarketPattern" ], "unavailableReason": "matching-pattern-history-unavailable" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 19.25, "magnitudeScore": 38.5, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 38.5, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "supporting-context", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": true, "bonus": 0.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "weeklyPatternPriority": { "version": 1, "basis": "Verified seven-asset common spot direction with mixed weekly IV takes priority over individual ranges and ordinary levels; other eligible typed whole-market observations retain their scores; operational selection rule, no historical rarity claim" }, "selectionAdjustment": 101.0, "selectionScore": 139.5 }, "selectionAuditVersion": 1, "kind": "weeklyMarketPattern", "evidence": { "version": 1, "kind": "weeklyMarketPattern", "id": "weekly-market-spot-iv-pattern", "status": "available", "universe": [ "BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "horizon": "7D", "candidateEligible": true, "currentAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "previousAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "observations": [ { "asset": "BTC", "current": 30.3, "previous": 29.55, "change": 0.75, "spotReturnPercent": -2.25, "spotEvidence": { "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "surfaceComparison": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800.0 }, "spotWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800 }, "status": "available", "valuePercent": -2.25, "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "price": 84858.65, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "price": 82947.16, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "sourceSha256": "451abf21d44601fd2e1ae897c3cd64e1cc7be64c33b5c5b3160af48c5091ded7", "unavailableReason": null, "validationErrors": [] }, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].tenors[1W].atmIv", "rows[asset=BTC].realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" ] }, { "asset": "ETH", "current": 41.22, "previous": 39.48, "change": 1.74, "spotReturnPercent": -6.65, "spotEvidence": { "asset": "ETH", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "surfaceComparison": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800.0 }, "spotWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800 }, "status": "available", "valuePercent": -6.65, "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "price": 2681.74, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "price": 2503.43, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "ETH-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "eth_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "sourceSha256": "5ad156e4a47c0116a04ec627a6f6e479f9b39be7aea08298e5b0ce9c81915089", "unavailableReason": null, "validationErrors": [] }, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=ETH].tenors[1W].atmIv", "rows[asset=ETH].realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" ] }, { "asset": "SOL", "current": 49.12, "previous": 53.13, "change": -4.01, "spotReturnPercent": -8.13, "spotEvidence": { "asset": "SOL", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "surfaceComparison": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800.0 }, "spotWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800 }, "status": "available", "valuePercent": -8.13, "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "price": 119.6975, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "price": 109.9626, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "SOL-USDC-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "sol_usdc", "unavailableReason": null }, "sourceSha256": "141bf89053b691fd77c452e1b2df1cada340f3bcc140c579485fc94429369735", "unavailableReason": null, "validationErrors": [] }, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-03T17:02:00+00:00", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=SOL].tenors[1W].atmIv", "rows[asset=SOL].realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" ] }, { "asset": "XRP", 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"exclusions": [], "statement": "All seven crypto spot indices fall while one-week implied volatility diverges" } }