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Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.","fixedTenors":"Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.","smileReconstruction":"Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.","ultraShortExpiry":"Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. 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options show higher 1w ATM IV","executiveSummary":"The 1W ATM IV change for BTC was +4.41 volatility points over the stored comparison.","evidenceIds":["largest-standard-tenor","front-atm","back-atm","realised-vol"],"newsSummary":"The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Binance Confirms […] BTC SAFU Transfer After Hack”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":["239519c3-d37a-460b-92c5-08c2b0f2ebaf","a3e4d85f-4d4a-44f5-8b9e-db362477c353","603df3aa-eccf-4bc8-899c-2dbdd0b0f5d1"],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 40.27%, 3.64 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 36.63%; 24-hour realised volatility was 27.38% and 30-day realised volatility was 33.13%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +2.11 volatility points to 38.98% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.30 volatility points to 38.65% across 6M and 1Y."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.71 volatility points to -4.68% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.06 volatility points to 1.21% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +4.41 volatility points at 1W, to 40.27%.","tenor":"1W","value":4.41},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was +0.43% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was -3.26% over seven 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-28","snapshotAt":"2026-10-28T23:59:00+00:00","tenors":{"1W":{"atmIv":35.62,"rr25":-1.52,"bf25":0.94},"2W":{"atmIv":35.52,"rr25":-2.24,"bf25":1.0},"1M":{"atmIv":35.11,"rr25":-3.02,"bf25":1.12},"3M":{"atmIv":36.74,"rr25":-2.62,"bf25":1.12},"6M":{"atmIv":37.76,"rr25":-2.24,"bf25":1.06},"9M":{"atmIv":38.48,"rr25":-1.92,"bf25":0.99},"1Y":{"atmIv":38.84,"rr25":-1.6,"bf25":0.98}}},{"date":"2026-10-29","snapshotAt":"2026-10-29T23:59:00+00:00","tenors":{"1W":{"atmIv":46.46,"rr25":-7.96,"bf25":1.87},"2W":{"atmIv":42.12,"rr25":-6.47,"bf25":1.54},"1M":{"atmIv":39.3,"rr25":-4.8,"bf25":1.39},"3M":{"atmIv":37.84,"rr25":-3.36,"bf25":1.17},"6M":{"atmIv":38.71,"rr25":-2.5,"bf25":1.15},"9M":{"atmIv":39.16,"rr25":-2.11,"bf25":1.09},"1Y":{"atmIv":39.47,"rr25":-1.83,"bf25":1.02}}},{"date":"2026-10-30","snapshotAt":"2026-10-30T23:59:00+00:00","tenors":{"1W":{"atmIv":42.61,"rr25":-5.3,"bf25":1.28},"2W":{"atmIv":40.43,"rr25":-5.32,"bf25":1.19},"1M":{"atmIv":38.0,"rr25":-4.85,"bf25":1.34},"3M":{"atmIv":37.89,"rr25":-4.02,"bf25":1.15},"6M":{"atmIv":38.58,"rr25":-2.97,"bf25":1.12},"9M":{"atmIv":39.07,"rr25":-2.35,"bf25":1.04},"1Y":{"atmIv":39.33,"rr25":-2.05,"bf25":1.02}}},{"date":"2026-10-31","snapshotAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","tenors":{"1W":{"atmIv":40.27,"rr25":-5.41,"bf25":1.21},"2W":{"atmIv":38.91,"rr25":-5.63,"bf25":1.22},"1M":{"atmIv":37.77,"rr25":-5.05,"bf25":1.25},"3M":{"atmIv":37.92,"rr25":-4.2,"bf25":1.2},"6M":{"atmIv":38.65,"rr25":-3.13,"bf25":1.16},"9M":{"atmIv":39.07,"rr25":-2.59,"bf25":1.09},"1Y":{"atmIv":39.3,"rr25":-2.35,"bf25":1.03}}}],"weeklyStatistics":{"observedDays":8,"metricRanges":[{"tenor":"1W","atmIv":{"minimum":34.33,"maximum":46.46,"range":12.13},"rr25":{"minimum":-7.96,"maximum":-1.52,"range":6.44},"bf25":{"minimum":0.94,"maximum":1.87,"range":0.93}},{"tenor":"2W","atmIv":{"minimum":35.52,"maximum":42.12,"range":6.6},"rr25":{"minimum":-6.47,"maximum":-2.24,"range":4.23},"bf25":{"minimum":0.95,"maximum":1.54,"range":0.59}},{"tenor":"1M","atmIv":{"minimum":35.11,"maximum":39.3,"range":4.19},"rr25":{"minimum":-5.05,"maximum":-3.02,"range":2.03},"bf25":{"minimum":1.12,"maximum":1.39,"range":0.27}},{"tenor":"3M","atmIv":{"minimum":36.74,"maximum":37.92,"range":1.18},"rr25":{"minimum":-4.2,"maximum":-2.62,"range":1.58},"bf25":{"minimum":1.1,"maximum":1.2,"range":0.1}},{"tenor":"6M","atmIv":{"minimum":37.76,"maximum":38.71,"range":0.95},"rr25":{"minimum":-3.13,"maximum":-2.16,"range":0.97},"bf25":{"minimum":1.06,"maximum":1.16,"range":0.1}},{"tenor":"9M","atmIv":{"minimum":38.48,"maximum":39.16,"range":0.68},"rr25":{"minimum":-2.59,"maximum":-1.77,"range":0.82},"bf25":{"minimum":0.99,"maximum":1.09,"range":0.1}},{"tenor":"1Y","atmIv":{"minimum":38.84,"maximum":39.47,"range":0.63},"rr25":{"minimum":-2.35,"maximum":-1.53,"range":0.82},"bf25":{"minimum":0.98,"maximum":1.07,"range":0.09}}],"largestDailyMoves":[{"metric":"atmIv","tenor":"1W","fromDate":"2026-10-28","toDate":"2026-10-29","change":10.84,"score":10.84},{"metric":"atmIv","tenor":"2W","fromDate":"2026-10-28","toDate":"2026-10-29","change":6.6,"score":6.6},{"metric":"rr25","tenor":"1W","fromDate":"2026-10-28","toDate":"2026-10-29","change":-6.44,"score":6.44},{"metric":"rr25","tenor":"2W","fromDate":"2026-10-28","toDate":"2026-10-29","change":-4.23,"score":4.23},{"metric":"atmIv","tenor":"1M","fromDate":"2026-10-28","toDate":"2026-10-29","change":4.19,"score":4.19},{"metric":"atmIv","tenor":"1W","fromDate":"2026-10-29","toDate":"2026-10-30","change":-3.85,"score":3.85},{"metric":"atmIv","tenor":"1W","fromDate":"2026-10-24","toDate":"2026-10-25","change":3.36,"score":3.36},{"metric":"rr25","tenor":"1W","fromDate":"2026-10-29","toDate":"2026-10-30","change":2.66,"score":2.66},{"metric":"atmIv","tenor":"1W","fromDate":"2026-10-30","toDate":"2026-10-31","change":-2.34,"score":2.34},{"metric":"atmIv","tenor":"1W","fromDate":"2026-10-27","toDate":"2026-10-28","change":-2.04,"score":2.04}]},"dailyReportInputs":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-25","href":"/reports/2026-10-25","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00","headline":"Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.40 points to 36.82%","readerSummary":"2W ATM IV fell 1.40 volatility points to 36.82%, a routine move at the 68th percentile among 22 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 18.87% over 24 hours, 31.56% over seven days and 31.59% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 36.10%, -0.77 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.12%, -0.23 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.79 volatility points toward calls to -3.09%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 fell 0.16 volatility points to 2.16%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.74%; nearest eligible forward 28OCT26: +0.44% to $80,689.01. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","readerSummarySource":"marketRead","newsOutcome":"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst","largestAtmMove":{"tenor":"2W","change":-1.4,"current":36.82}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-26","href":"/reports/2026-10-26","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00","headline":"Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility rise 1.70 points to 37.47%","readerSummary":"1W ATM IV rose 1.70 volatility points to 37.47%, a routine move at the 68th percentile among 22 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 39.07% over 24 hours, 32.40% over seven days and 32.24% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 37.13%, +1.03 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.23%, +0.11 points. 2W RR25 moved 0.74 volatility points toward calls to -3.54%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1M BF25 fell 0.17 volatility points to 2.26%. 24-hour spot-index: -0.59%; nearest eligible forward 29OCT26: -0.68% to $80,163.37. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","readerSummarySource":"marketRead","newsOutcome":"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst","largestAtmMove":{"tenor":"1W","change":1.7,"current":37.47}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-27","href":"/reports/2026-10-27","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00","headline":"Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.24 points to 36.32%","readerSummary":"2W ATM IV fell 1.24 volatility points to 36.32%, a routine move at the 68th percentile among 22 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 27.03% over 24 hours, 30.98% over seven days and 32.45% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 36.05%, -1.07 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.00%, -0.23 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.04 volatility points toward calls to -2.06%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 fell 0.24 volatility points to 1.82%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.62%; nearest eligible forward 30OCT26: +0.62% to $80,696.58. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","readerSummarySource":"marketRead","newsOutcome":"No sufficiently relevant context identified","largestAtmMove":{"tenor":"2W","change":-1.24,"current":36.32}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-28","href":"/reports/2026-10-28","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00","headline":"Bitcoin options show higher 3m RR25 skew","readerSummary":"3M RR25 moved 0.37 volatility points toward calls to -2.49%, leaving puts richer than calls; this was a notable move at the 86th percentile among 22 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 27.35% over 24 hours, 30.26% over seven days and 32.05% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 36.15%, +0.09 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.82%, -0.18 points. 3M ATM IV fell 0.25 volatility points to 36.80%. 1W BF25 rose 0.23 volatility points to 2.05%. 24-hour spot-index: -0.21%; nearest eligible forward 31OCT26: -0.20% to $80,538.97. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","readerSummarySource":"marketRead","newsOutcome":"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst","largestAtmMove":{"tenor":"3M","change":-0.25,"current":36.8}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-29","href":"/reports/2026-10-29","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00","headline":"Bitcoin options show lower 2w ATM IV","readerSummary":"2W ATM IV fell 1.07 volatility points to 35.34%, a routine move at the 65th percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 38.98% over 24 hours, 31.13% over seven days and 32.28% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 35.35%, -0.80 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.68%, -0.14 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.82 volatility points toward puts to -2.71%, leaving puts richer than calls. 3M BF25 fell 0.14 volatility points to 1.02%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.71%; nearest eligible forward 1NOV26: +0.60% to $81,037.16. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","readerSummarySource":"marketRead","newsOutcome":"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst","largestAtmMove":{"tenor":"2W","change":-1.07,"current":35.34}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-30","href":"/reports/2026-10-30","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00","headline":"Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV","readerSummary":"1W ATM IV rose 6.08 volatility points to 41.86%, an exceptional move at the 100th percentile among 24 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 61.34% over 24 hours, 36.88% over seven days and 33.31% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 39.95%, +4.60 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.56%, +0.88 points. 2W RR25 moved 1.81 volatility points toward puts to -4.54%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.29 volatility points to 1.26%. 24-hour spot-index: -4.87%; nearest eligible forward 2NOV26: -4.77% to $77,186.49. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","readerSummarySource":"marketRead","newsOutcome":"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst","largestAtmMove":{"tenor":"1W","change":6.08,"current":41.86}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-31","href":"/reports/2026-10-31","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","headline":"BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV falls 1.59 volatility points","readerSummary":"1W ATM IV fell 1.59 volatility points to 40.27%, a routine move at the 67th percentile among 24 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 27.38% over 24 hours, 36.63% over seven days and 33.13% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 38.98%, -0.97 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.65%, +0.09 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.17 volatility points toward puts to -5.41%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 fell 0.05 volatility points to 1.21%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.43%; nearest eligible forward 3NOV26: +0.37% to $77,486.62. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","readerSummarySource":"marketRead","newsOutcome":"No sufficiently relevant context identified","largestAtmMove":{"tenor":"1W","change":-1.59,"current":40.27}}],"dailyReportReview":{"reportsIncluded":7,"coverage":{"basis":"UTC calendar dates intersecting the inclusive snapshot window","windowStartAt":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00","windowEndAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","windowCalendarDates":["2026-10-24","2026-10-25","2026-10-26","2026-10-27","2026-10-28","2026-10-29","2026-10-30","2026-10-31"],"includedReportDates":["2026-10-25","2026-10-26","2026-10-27","2026-10-28","2026-10-29","2026-10-30","2026-10-31"],"missingDates":["2026-10-24"],"state":"complete","resolverVersion":1,"manifestSha256":"9abc468f0b05167ca8aee60dd257796f01d6ab81dbc169a90f970d72c9499699","dateResolution":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-24","published":true,"source":"verified-published","sourceSha256":"802b9df6852ac1e36fcb280d45a42d01777fe2ca2e20406c5e18ab9334bdb246","artifactPath":"/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-24/802b9df6852ac1e36fcb280d45a42d01777fe2ca2e20406c5e18ab9334bdb246.json","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00","status":"outside_window","reason":"Stored publication cutoff lies outside the inclusive weekly window"},{"reportDate":"2026-10-25","published":true,"source":"verified-published","sourceSha256":"59c4b124e11910931fe33dd8f9758aff9676fe4ffa1f5ff31914ac726614ba5d","artifactPath":"/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-25/59c4b124e11910931fe33dd8f9758aff9676fe4ffa1f5ff31914ac726614ba5d.json","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00","status":"included"},{"reportDate":"2026-10-26","published":true,"source":"verified-published","sourceSha256":"1f57a6e2cf91c3091e2b7f5cec6d071be9cc5d52cfd5597382613e0c99fb2046","artifactPath":"/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-26/1f57a6e2cf91c3091e2b7f5cec6d071be9cc5d52cfd5597382613e0c99fb2046.json","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00","status":"included"},{"reportDate":"2026-10-27","published":true,"source":"verified-published","sourceSha256":"282fcd45e5e3c70f7eec89aba6977eae052384a1cb5827735b9bcda163af790b","artifactPath":"/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-27/282fcd45e5e3c70f7eec89aba6977eae052384a1cb5827735b9bcda163af790b.json","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00","status":"included"},{"reportDate":"2026-10-28","published":true,"source":"verified-published","sourceSha256":"139a0b32b7ccee06c0a29850fffd0922a6e1a85a6425617907e90262f6726835","artifactPath":"/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-28/139a0b32b7ccee06c0a29850fffd0922a6e1a85a6425617907e90262f6726835.json","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00","status":"included"},{"reportDate":"2026-10-29","published":true,"source":"verified-published","sourceSha256":"ad49095d53ff0ffac914c0e388478692a8b6ea72840cbc292f18ad81b5b706d9","artifactPath":"/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-29/ad49095d53ff0ffac914c0e388478692a8b6ea72840cbc292f18ad81b5b706d9.json","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00","status":"included"},{"reportDate":"2026-10-30","published":true,"source":"verified-published","sourceSha256":"ed707f893fc2c18b38d6011e338669543099ac1a75e93b64cb392f206837bd6a","artifactPath":"/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-30/ed707f893fc2c18b38d6011e338669543099ac1a75e93b64cb392f206837bd6a.json","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00","status":"included"},{"reportDate":"2026-10-31","published":false,"source":"current-run-local","sourceSha256":"aeff5577475c306be696f5522b7f5050c6d000cb55a8c06eeb89b77049912be2","currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","status":"included"}],"publishedReportDates":["2026-10-24","2026-10-25","2026-10-26","2026-10-27","2026-10-28","2026-10-29","2026-10-30"],"eligiblePublishedReportDates":["2026-10-25","2026-10-26","2026-10-27","2026-10-28","2026-10-29","2026-10-30"],"localCurrentReportDates":["2026-10-31"],"expectedSnapshotDates":["2026-10-25","2026-10-26","2026-10-27","2026-10-28","2026-10-29","2026-10-30","2026-10-31"],"outsideWindowDates":["2026-10-24"],"unavailableReasons":[],"warnings":[]},"firstReportDate":"2026-10-25","lastReportDate":"2026-10-31","largestReportedAtmMove":{"reportDate":"2026-10-30","href":"/reports/2026-10-30","tenor":"1W","change":6.08,"current":41.86},"newsOutcomeCounts":{"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst":5,"No sufficiently relevant context identified":2}},"spotReturnAudit":{"schemaVersion":1,"basis":"Exact seven-day index endpoint return ending at each asset's current snapshot; surface comparisons may span a different interval; not a forecast.","observations":[{"asset":"BTC","cutoffAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","surfaceComparison":{"startAt":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00","endAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","elapsedSeconds":604800.0},"spotWindow":{"startAt":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00","endAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","elapsedSeconds":604800},"status":"available","valuePercent":-3.26,"startEndpoint":{"timestamp":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00","price":80053.61,"venue":"canonical","instrument":"BTC-USD-INDEX","fallback":false,"sourceVenue":"deribit","sourceInstrument":"btc_usd","unavailableReason":null},"endEndpoint":{"timestamp":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","price":77447.23,"venue":"canonical","instrument":"BTC-USD-INDEX","fallback":false,"sourceVenue":"deribit","sourceInstrument":"btc_usd","unavailableReason":null},"sourceSha256":"90e964643f93ea1937cc4359f60ea5f3da7d0a7d1119b34aaa71b846d18c242e","unavailableReason":null,"validationErrors":[]}]},"marketDiary":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"local-news-mcp","generatedAt":"2026-10-31T19:23:56+00:00","window":{"startAt":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00","endAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","endExclusive":true},"headline":"Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV","standfirst":"BTC 1W ATM IV is 40.27 percent, compared with 35.86 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.","days":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-25","headline":"No selected news for the session","summary":"No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.","events":[]}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-26","headline":"No selected news for the session","summary":"No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.","events":[]}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-27","headline":"No selected news for the session","summary":"No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.","events":[]}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-28","headline":"Selected reporting for the session","summary":"The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","events":[{"eventId":"a3e4d85f-4d4a-44f5-8b9e-db362477c353","title":"Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4% as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain","publisher":"The Defiant","url":"https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/fed-holds-rates-at-3-75-4-as-bitcoin-gives-back-brief-gain","publishedAt":"2026-10-28T18:12:28+00:00"}]}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-29","headline":"Selected reporting for the session","summary":"Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","events":[{"eventId":"239519c3-d37a-460b-92c5-08c2b0f2ebaf","title":"$11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means","publisher":"Decrypt","url":"https://decrypt.co/382171/11-billion-bitcoin-options-expire-tomorrow-what-means","publishedAt":"2026-10-29T17:15:11+00:00"}]}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-30","headline":"No selected news for the session","summary":"No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.","events":[]}},{"reportDate":"2026-10-31","headline":"Selected reporting for the session","summary":"The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Binance Confirms […] BTC SAFU Transfer After Hack”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Binance Confirms […] BTC SAFU Transfer After Hack”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","events":[{"eventId":"603df3aa-eccf-4bc8-899c-2dbdd0b0f5d1","title":"Binance Confirms 7,499 BTC SAFU Transfer After Hack","publisher":"The Defiant","url":"https://thedefiant.io/news/hacks/binance-confirms-7-499-btc-safu-transfer-after-hack","publishedAt":"2026-10-31T16:22:42+00:00"}]}}]},"newsStatus":"context","headline":"Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV","standfirst":"BTC 1W ATM IV is 40.27 percent, compared with 35.86 percent at the prior cutoff.","leadChart":{"asset":"BTC","metric":"atmIv","eventType":"atmIv","label":"1W","current":40.27,"previous":35.86,"change":4.41,"currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","previousSnapshotAt":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00","evidenceRef":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","provenance":{"kind":"report-event","candidateId":"btc-largestAtmMove","candidateSource":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","eventRef":"events[type=atmIv,label=1W]","valuesRef":"tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv"},"event":{"type":"atmIv","title":"Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move","label":"1W","value":4.41}},"btcVolContext":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"market-context-mcp","type":"btc_volatility_context_latest","asset":"BTC","asOfTimestamp":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","status":"available","ds30":{"value":43.49716225147562,"units":"volatility_points","sourceTimestamp":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","observedAt":null,"ingestedAt":null,"freshness":{"status":"fresh","ageSeconds":0.0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","maxAgeSeconds":120.0,"sourceMaxAgeSeconds":null,"rejectionReasons":[]},"availability":null,"methodology":"Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices","comparisonEligible":true},"bviv":{"value":42.661363290986,"units":"volatility_points","sourceTimestamp":"2026-10-31T17:29:55+00:00","observedAt":"2026-10-31T17:30:00+00:00","ingestedAt":"2026-10-31T17:30:00.033000+00:00","freshness":{"status":"fresh","ageSeconds":65.0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00","maxAgeSeconds":90.0,"sourceMaxAgeSeconds":15.0,"rejectionReasons":[]},"availability":"streaming","methodology":"Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel","comparisonEligible":true},"bvivMinusDs30":{"value":-0.835798960489619,"units":"volatility_points","status":"available","methodology":"BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff"}},"materialCandidates":[{"id":"btc-largestAtmMove","asset":"BTC","metric":"atmIv","metricLabel":"ATM IV","tenor":"1W","expiry":null,"observationKind":"change","change":4.41,"current":40.27,"previous":35.86,"relativeChangePercent":12.2978,"historicalPercentile":87.2,"historicalLevelPercentile":null,"historicalZScore":1.1359,"score":36.8195,"historicalContext":{"status":"available","observationKind":"change","basis":"absolute matching cadence moves in stored history","percentile":87.2,"observations":39,"minimumObservations":20,"window":{"start":null,"end":null},"sourceRefs":["summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory"],"unavailableReason":null,"provenance":{"sampleCount":39,"observationHorizonDays":7,"samplingCadence":"daily UTC observations","periodsOverlap":true,"sampleWindow":{"startDate":"2026-08-29","endDate":"2026-10-24","startSnapshotAt":"2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00","endSnapshotAt":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00"},"sourceDigest":"sha256:066a45e41d0cbe5043beb846e16e8e7bb9cbd570209e807b3f5c813783f41c97"}},"scoreComponents":{"version":3,"unit":"volatility points","magnitudeScale":1.0,"normalizedMagnitude":4.41,"magnitudeScore":8.82,"historicalMagnitudeScale":1.0,"historicalBonus":27.9995,"evidenceQuality":1.0,"totalScore":36.8195,"rarity":{"policyVersion":1,"tail":"upper","percentile":87.2,"tailDistance":37.2,"magnitudeIndependent":false},"formula":"(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; 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