{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-17", "generatedAt": "2026-10-17T17:02:48+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 688233, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 617952, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 168.0, "currency": "BTC", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.", "snapshotSelection": "The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.", "dailyReportInputs": "The weekly edition reuses 8 stored daily reports from 2026-10-10 through 2026-10-17; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail. Daily report trail coverage is complete. Published historical inputs are SHA-256 verified and pinned with their manifest; offline replay reuses those exact bytes. Daily surface observations are separate from stored daily reports.", "realisedVolatilityInput": "Full same-date frozen daily BTC realised-volatility object, validated against the same current snapshot cutoff, canonical index source, declared 7d coverage policy and current 1W ATM IV. Missing, stale or ineligible inputs remain unavailable.", "spotReturns": "Exact seven-day index endpoint return ending at each asset's current snapshot; surface comparisons may span a different interval; not a forecast." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 60, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.42, "rv24hPercent": 26.31, "rv7dPercent": 34.07, "rv30dPercent": 33.68, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "a0afe50d528dec2d8f14ddd1405b4aa451d4a5d00a48a8ea026e36cbbd75b508", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 64639.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 68785.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-20T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 72252.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-21T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 77264.9, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-22T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 77209.86, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-23T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 77320.03, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-24T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 79684.71, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-25T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 79256.0, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, 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false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 82929.25, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 83777.2, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 82782.69, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 83398.71, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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proxy", "windows": { "24h": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81501.68, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81158.64, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": -0.42, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "a0afe50d528dec2d8f14ddd1405b4aa451d4a5d00a48a8ea026e36cbbd75b508", "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical 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], "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls further toward puts", "executiveSummary": "From October 10, 2026 at 16:31 UTC to October 17, 2026 at 16:31 UTC, Bitcoin 1W RR25 moved from -3.02 to -4.46 volatility points, a decline of 1.44 points. The more negative call-minus-put reading indicates higher put volatility relative to calls. RR25 also declined across Bitcoin’s other available headline tenors, broadening the weekly skew adjustment.\n\nBitcoin’s seven-day spot-index return was -2.14%. Meanwhile, 2W ATM implied volatility rose 1.43 volatility points to 33.49%, the largest standard-tenor ATM increase over the reporting interval. At the cutoff, 1W ATM implied volatility stood at 31.36%, 2.71 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 34.07%; that gap alone does not establish whether options are cheap or expensive.", "evidenceIds": [ "rr25", "front-atm", "realised-vol", "spot-index-7d" ], "newsSummary": "In developing, single-source coverage published October 15, [Cointelegraph reported](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k) $151 million in net Bitcoin ETF outflows since Monday, following $681 million withdrawn the preceding week. Those partial-week fund flows provide context for Bitcoin’s institutional backdrop, but the reporting does not establish a measured link to the weekly skew change.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.36%, 2.71 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 34.07%; 24-hour realised volatility was 26.31% and 30-day realised volatility was 33.68%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.93 volatility points to 33.54% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.32 volatility points to 37.69% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.78 volatility points to -3.14% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.12% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.43 volatility points at 2W, to 33.49%.", "tenor": "2W", "value": 1.43 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -0.42% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -2.14% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "completedScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "missingScopes": [], 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"atmIv": 39.08, "rr25": -0.54, "bf25": 2.36 } } }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "snapshotAt": "2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00", "tenors": { "1W": { "atmIv": 32.14, "rr25": -3.14, "bf25": 1.84 }, "2W": { "atmIv": 32.83, "rr25": -3.28, "bf25": 1.86 }, "1M": { "atmIv": 35.41, "rr25": -2.58, "bf25": 2.0 }, "3M": { "atmIv": 37.31, "rr25": -1.75, "bf25": 2.25 }, "6M": { "atmIv": 38.13, "rr25": -1.36, "bf25": 2.38 }, "9M": { "atmIv": 38.64, "rr25": -1.05, "bf25": 2.41 }, "1Y": { "atmIv": 39.06, "rr25": -0.57, "bf25": 2.43 } } }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "snapshotAt": "2026-10-12T23:59:00+00:00", "tenors": { "1W": { "atmIv": 33.79, "rr25": -2.78, "bf25": 1.8 }, "2W": { "atmIv": 33.94, "rr25": -3.39, "bf25": 1.81 }, "1M": { "atmIv": 35.98, "rr25": -2.56, "bf25": 1.96 }, "3M": { "atmIv": 37.54, "rr25": -1.72, "bf25": 2.26 }, "6M": { "atmIv": 38.35, "rr25": -1.38, "bf25": 2.34 }, "9M": { "atmIv": 38.83, "rr25": -1.13, "bf25": 2.39 }, "1Y": { "atmIv": 39.29, "rr25": -0.67, "bf25": 2.41 } } }, { "date": 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"atmIv": 33.49, "rr25": -4.2, "bf25": 2.04 }, "1M": { "atmIv": 35.76, "rr25": -3.12, "bf25": 2.14 }, "3M": { "atmIv": 36.67, "rr25": -2.28, "bf25": 2.22 }, "6M": { "atmIv": 37.69, "rr25": -1.62, "bf25": 2.22 }, "9M": { "atmIv": 38.22, "rr25": -1.41, "bf25": 2.25 }, "1Y": { "atmIv": 38.63, "rr25": -1.07, "bf25": 2.15 } } } ], "weeklyStatistics": { "observedDays": 8, "metricRanges": [ { "tenor": "1W", "atmIv": { "minimum": 31.16, "maximum": 34.17, "range": 3.01 }, "rr25": { "minimum": -4.65, "maximum": -2.78, "range": 1.87 }, "bf25": { "minimum": 1.74, "maximum": 2.41, "range": 0.67 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "atmIv": { "minimum": 32.47, "maximum": 34.75, "range": 2.28 }, "rr25": { "minimum": -5.29, "maximum": -3.28, "range": 2.01 }, "bf25": { "minimum": 1.72, "maximum": 2.29, "range": 0.57 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "atmIv": { "minimum": 35.15, "maximum": 36.63, "range": 1.48 }, "rr25": { "minimum": -3.4, "maximum": -2.56, "range": 0.84 }, "bf25": { "minimum": 1.93, "maximum": 2.36, "range": 0.43 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "atmIv": { "minimum": 36.67, "maximum": 37.68, "range": 1.01 }, "rr25": { "minimum": -2.33, "maximum": -1.63, "range": 0.7 }, "bf25": { "minimum": 2.22, "maximum": 2.44, "range": 0.22 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "atmIv": { "minimum": 37.69, "maximum": 38.49, "range": 0.8 }, "rr25": { "minimum": -1.67, "maximum": -1.26, "range": 0.41 }, "bf25": { "minimum": 2.22, "maximum": 2.52, "range": 0.3 } }, { "tenor": "9M", "atmIv": { "minimum": 38.22, "maximum": 39.05, "range": 0.83 }, "rr25": { "minimum": -1.56, "maximum": -1.04, "range": 0.52 }, "bf25": { "minimum": 2.25, "maximum": 2.55, "range": 0.3 } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "atmIv": { "minimum": 38.63, "maximum": 39.43, "range": 0.8 }, "rr25": { "minimum": -1.33, "maximum": -0.54, "range": 0.79 }, "bf25": { "minimum": 2.15, "maximum": 2.49, "range": 0.34 } } ], "largestDailyMoves": [ { "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1W", "fromDate": "2026-10-15", "toDate": "2026-10-16", "change": -2.32, "score": 2.32 }, { "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "2W", "fromDate": "2026-10-12", "toDate": "2026-10-13", "change": -1.9, "score": 1.9 }, { "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W", "fromDate": "2026-10-12", "toDate": "2026-10-13", "change": -1.87, "score": 1.87 }, { "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1W", "fromDate": "2026-10-11", "toDate": "2026-10-12", "change": 1.65, "score": 1.65 }, { "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W", "fromDate": "2026-10-15", "toDate": "2026-10-16", "change": -1.2, "score": 1.2 }, { "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "2W", "fromDate": "2026-10-11", "toDate": "2026-10-12", "change": 1.11, "score": 1.11 }, { "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "2W", "fromDate": "2026-10-13", "toDate": "2026-10-14", "change": 0.89, "score": 0.89 }, { "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1M", "fromDate": "2026-10-12", "toDate": "2026-10-13", "change": -0.84, "score": 0.84 }, { "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "2W", "fromDate": "2026-10-15", "toDate": "2026-10-16", "change": -0.82, "score": 0.82 }, { "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1M", "fromDate": "2026-10-15", "toDate": "2026-10-16", "change": -0.82, "score": 0.82 } ] }, "dailyReportInputs": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-10", "href": "/reports/2026-10-10", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 drops 1.03 volatility points, widening put premium", "readerSummary": "1W RR25 moved 1.03 volatility points toward puts to -2.99%, leaving puts richer than calls; this was a routine move at the 64th percentile among 168 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 14.51% over 24 hours, 29.73% over seven days and 34.32% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 32.45%, -0.12 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.00%, -0.02 points. 1W ATM IV fell 0.87 volatility points to 30.30%. 2W BF25 rose 0.10 volatility points to 1.69%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.35%; nearest eligible forward 13OCT26: +0.27% to $82,965.56. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -0.87, "current": 30.3 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-11", "href": "/reports/2026-10-11", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-11T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w ATM IV rises 1.73 volatility points, leading the curve higher", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV rose 1.73 volatility points to 32.48%, a routine move at the 52nd percentile among 169 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 13.73% over 24 hours, 29.79% over seven days and 33.32% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 33.70%, +1.10 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.11%, +0.10 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.46 volatility points toward puts to -3.48%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.16 volatility points to 1.86%. 24-hour spot-index: +1.09%; nearest eligible forward 14OCT26: +1.08% to $83,862.51. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": 1.73, "current": 32.48 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-12", "href": "/reports/2026-10-12", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options: wings move closer to ATM as Bitcoin's 1w BF25 drops 0.29 volatility points", "readerSummary": "1W RR25 moved 0.71 volatility points toward calls to -2.77%, leaving puts richer than calls; this was a routine move at the 47th percentile among 170 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 27.65% over 24 hours, 28.40% over seven days and 33.48% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 33.74%, +0.04 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.19%, +0.08 points. 1W ATM IV fell 0.25 volatility points to 32.23%. 1W BF25 fell 0.29 volatility points to 1.57%. 24-hour spot-index: -1.32%; nearest eligible forward 15OCT26: -1.29% to $82,785.64. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -0.25, "current": 32.23 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "href": "/reports/2026-10-13", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 16oct26 smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points", "readerSummary": "2W ATM IV fell 0.68 volatility points to 32.63%, a routine move at the 26th percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 37.51% over 24 hours, 30.03% over seven days and 34.06% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 33.31%, -0.43 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.31%, +0.12 points. 2W RR25 moved 0.40 volatility points toward puts to -3.88%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1M BF25 rose 0.17 volatility points to 2.09%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.83%; nearest eligible forward 16OCT26: +0.86% to $83,514.92. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "2W", "change": -0.68, "current": 32.63 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "href": "/reports/2026-10-14", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options: wings gain relative to ATM as 2w BF25 increases 0.55 volatility points", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV rose 2.19 volatility points to 34.11%, a routine move at the 61st percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 38.06% over 24 hours, 30.99% over seven days and 34.18% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.96%, +1.65 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.39%, +0.08 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.18 volatility points toward puts to -4.26%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 rose 0.55 volatility points to 2.27%. 24-hour spot-index: -2.16%; nearest eligible forward 17OCT26: -2.17% to $81,694.70. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": 2.19, "current": 34.11 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "href": "/reports/2026-10-15", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV fell 0.81 volatility points to 33.30%, a routine move at the 39th percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 51.15% over 24 hours, 33.44% over seven days and 34.87% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.90%, -0.05 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.43%, +0.04 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.81 volatility points toward calls to -3.45%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.27 volatility points to 2.17%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.52%; nearest eligible forward 18OCT26: +0.47% to $82,097.61. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -0.81, "current": 33.3 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-16", "href": "/reports/2026-10-16", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w ATM IV drops 4.50 volatility points", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV fell 4.50 volatility points to 28.80%, a notable move at the 83rd percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 31.53% over 24 hours, 33.07% over seven days and 34.39% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 31.93%, -2.97 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.75%, -0.68 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.80 volatility points toward calls to -2.65%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 fell 0.44 volatility points to 1.73%. 24-hour spot-index: -0.50%; nearest eligible forward 19OCT26: -0.72% to $81,521.50. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -4.5, "current": 28.8 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-17", "href": "/reports/2026-10-17", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "headline": "BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 2.56 volatility points", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV rose 2.56 volatility points to 31.36%, a routine move at the 74th percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 26.31% over 24 hours, 34.07% over seven days and 33.68% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 33.54%, +1.60 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.69%, -0.06 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.81 volatility points toward puts to -4.46%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.27 volatility points to 2.00%. 24-hour spot-index: -0.42%; nearest eligible forward 20OCT26: -0.34% to $81,259.07. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": 2.56, "current": 31.36 } } ], "dailyReportReview": { "reportsIncluded": 8, "coverage": { "basis": "UTC calendar dates intersecting the inclusive snapshot window", "windowStartAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "windowEndAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "windowCalendarDates": [ "2026-10-10", "2026-10-11", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-17" ], "includedReportDates": [ "2026-10-10", "2026-10-11", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-17" ], "missingDates": [], "state": "complete", "resolverVersion": 1, "manifestSha256": "d429bbd1e2e479fa4ddd6f2461b47419ccd0e591dc654a594ccea1ec9d635baf", "dateResolution": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-10", "published": true, "source": "verified-published", "sourceSha256": "47aed699e76c69fe662c665b8a382b8524a51ab95960ce080a55d005701cd40c", "artifactPath": "/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-10/47aed699e76c69fe662c665b8a382b8524a51ab95960ce080a55d005701cd40c.json", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00", "status": "included" }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-11", "published": true, "source": "verified-published", "sourceSha256": "912ad03697af7b6a9a19bbdef494071ac5329dba8115500fbcf27e94461cd1ef", "artifactPath": "/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-11/912ad03697af7b6a9a19bbdef494071ac5329dba8115500fbcf27e94461cd1ef.json", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-11T16:30:00+00:00", "status": "included" }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-12", "published": true, "source": "verified-published", "sourceSha256": "c208828f7836d5dbcf3f418525e9cd82d0e02b1d0e800981689cc6782681de9c", "artifactPath": "/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-12/c208828f7836d5dbcf3f418525e9cd82d0e02b1d0e800981689cc6782681de9c.json", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "status": "included" }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "published": true, "source": "verified-published", "sourceSha256": "21c5f97fab9898f5b25e0ea14c1b1308a5487e3d55a1a1a843cbee2d6a386290", "artifactPath": "/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-13/21c5f97fab9898f5b25e0ea14c1b1308a5487e3d55a1a1a843cbee2d6a386290.json", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "status": "included" }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "published": true, "source": "verified-published", "sourceSha256": "4d13d8b2bea209f077b7aba38abaa45a4dd883d546e1bf35dfaf62cd091b52f8", "artifactPath": "/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-14/4d13d8b2bea209f077b7aba38abaa45a4dd883d546e1bf35dfaf62cd091b52f8.json", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "status": "included" }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "published": true, "source": "verified-published", "sourceSha256": "91fbe936a220b82b2598e427b70d1860704f252889ca6697d3d51870c09729eb", "artifactPath": "/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-15/91fbe936a220b82b2598e427b70d1860704f252889ca6697d3d51870c09729eb.json", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "status": "included" }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-16", "published": true, "source": "verified-published", "sourceSha256": "1630c7e24ad2cb9d38308df53822d9177d8198e5acaaed539e80f3e2a2ca2147", "artifactPath": "/v1/btc/daily/2026-10-16/1630c7e24ad2cb9d38308df53822d9177d8198e5acaaed539e80f3e2a2ca2147.json", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "status": "included" }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-17", "published": false, "source": "current-run-local", "sourceSha256": "2939b3be7eb757a11e27176ee28225150cff9482214c125b8910b739531e7b52", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "status": "included" } ], "publishedReportDates": [ "2026-10-10", "2026-10-11", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16" ], "eligiblePublishedReportDates": [ "2026-10-10", "2026-10-11", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16" ], "localCurrentReportDates": [ "2026-10-17" ], "expectedSnapshotDates": [ "2026-10-10", "2026-10-11", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-17" ], "outsideWindowDates": [], "unavailableReasons": [], "warnings": [] }, "firstReportDate": "2026-10-10", "lastReportDate": "2026-10-17", "largestReportedAtmMove": { "reportDate": "2026-10-16", "href": "/reports/2026-10-16", "tenor": "1W", "change": -4.5, "current": 28.8 }, "newsOutcomeCounts": { "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst": 7, "No sufficiently relevant context identified": 1 } }, "spotReturnAudit": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "Exact seven-day index endpoint return ending at each asset's current snapshot; surface comparisons may span a different interval; not a forecast.", "observations": [ { "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "surfaceComparison": { "startAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800.0 }, "spotWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "elapsedSeconds": 604800 }, "status": "available", "valuePercent": -2.14, "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 82929.25, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81158.64, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "sourceSha256": "a0afe50d528dec2d8f14ddd1405b4aa451d4a5d00a48a8ea026e36cbbd75b508", "unavailableReason": null, "validationErrors": [] } ] }, "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-17T17:17:16+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls further toward puts", "standfirst": "Bitcoin 1W call-minus-put RR25 declined 1.44 volatility points between October 10, 2026 at 16:31 UTC and October 17, 2026 at 16:31 UTC. The weekly change extended put-side skew, with the largest RR25 adjustment among standard tenors. Cointelegraph’s developing report of Bitcoin ETF withdrawals provides institutional context, without establishing a cause for the options move.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-10", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-11", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-12", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Selected canonical sources for this date are retained below as context.", "events": [ { "eventId": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trend", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T07:23:43+00:00" } ] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-16", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-10-17", "headline": "Dated news context in measured markets", "summary": "No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls further toward puts", "standfirst": "Bitcoin 1W call-minus-put RR25 declined 1.44 volatility points between October 10, 2026 at 16:31 UTC and October 17, 2026 at 16:31 UTC. The weekly change extended put-side skew, with the largest RR25 adjustment among standard tenors. Cointelegraph’s developing report of Bitcoin ETF withdrawals provides institutional context, without establishing a cause for the options move.", "leadChart": { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "rr25", "eventType": "rr25", "label": "1W", "current": -4.46, "previous": -3.02, "change": -1.44, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "btc-largestRr25Move", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "eventRef": "events[type=rr25,label=1W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=1W].rr25" }, "event": { "type": "rr25", "title": "Largest standard-tenor RR25 move", "label": "1W", "value": -1.44 } }, "btcVolContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "type": "btc_volatility_context_latest", "asset": "BTC", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "status": "partial", "ds30": { "value": 43.53652487195306, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "observedAt": null, "ingestedAt": null, "freshness": { "status": "fresh", "ageSeconds": 0.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 120.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": null, "rejectionReasons": [] }, "availability": null, "methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices", "comparisonEligible": true }, "bviv": { "value": 39.652137673845, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-17T16:29:12+00:00", "observedAt": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-17T16:30:00.064000+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "stale", "ageSeconds": 108.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 90.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": 15.0, "rejectionReasons": [ "reference_stale", "age_exceeded" ] }, "availability": "streaming", "methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel", "comparisonEligible": false }, "bvivMinusDs30": { "value": null, "units": "volatility_points", "status": "unavailable", "methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff" } }, "materialCandidates": [ { "id": "btc-largestRr25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -1.44, "current": -4.46, "previous": -3.02, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 69.0, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.4959, "score": 16.7595, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 69.0, "observations": 29, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 29, "observationHorizonDays": 7, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": true, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-29", "endDate": "2026-10-10", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:c495eb9b6f78f453133d27740ca11e09b9b892cdb44ee11b3eb438890d332b5d" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.44, "magnitudeScore": 2.88, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 13.8795, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 16.7595, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 69.0, "tailDistance": 19.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "periodPreference": { "policyVersion": 1, "targetWindow": "7d", "role": "weekly-movement", "meaningfulWeeklyMovementAvailable": true, "bonus": 100.0, "minimumNormalizedMovement": 1.0, "basis": "finite reconciled endpoints with aware seven-day clocks (tolerance one hour); metric MOVE_SCALES; a dispersion can represent large aligned constituent moves" }, "selectionAdjustment": 100.0, "selectionScore": 116.7595 }, "story": "BTC 1W RR25 moved lower by 1.44", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 116.7595, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID; weekly reporting-period movement or established matching-history level extreme takes priority over ordinary current levels", "headlinePolicyVersion": 2 }, { "id": "btc-largestAtmMove", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "atmIv", "metricLabel": "ATM IV", "tenor": "2W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 1.43, "current": 33.49, "previous": 32.06, "relativeChangePercent": 4.4604, "historicalPercentile": 44.8, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.1307, "score": 2.86, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 44.8, "observations": 29, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 29, "observationHorizonDays": 7, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": true, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-29", "endDate": "2026-10-10", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:246d2d2552c9434e32c24aba31c1a9eb286316726f6420b322a21bbff7be7bb7" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.43, "magnitudeScore": 2.86, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 2.86, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 44.8, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; 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