{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-09-05", "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T19:48:44+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T18:43:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 276761, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 206364, "timestamp": "2026-08-29T18:43:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 168.0, "currency": "BTC", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.", "snapshotSelection": "The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.", "dailyReportInputs": "The weekly edition reuses 8 validated daily reports from 2026-08-29 through 2026-09-05; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail." }, "fitQuality": { "currentObjective": 0.50755473, "previousObjective": 0.07479079, "currentLiveError": 356.89046146, "previousLiveError": 76.410038 }, "coverage": { "currentListedExpiries": 12, "previousListedExpiries": 13, "comparedListedExpiries": 8, "addedExpiries": [ "6SEP26", "7SEP26", "8SEP26", "9SEP26" ], "removedExpiries": [ "1SEP26", "2SEP26", "30AUG26", "31AUG26", "4SEP26" ], "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "deterministic", "model": null, "headline": "BTC weekly surface: 2W ATM IV rises 2.54 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "Across the six headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +1.35 volatility points, RR25 +2.21 volatility points and BF25 +0.05 volatility points between the stored endpoints.", "takeaways": [ { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.92 volatility points to 36.22% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.01 volatility points to 40.15% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +2.21 volatility points to 0.80% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to 2.13% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.54 volatility points at 2W, to 36.73%.", "tenor": "2W", "value": 2.54 } ], "evidenceIds": [ "front-atm", "back-atm", "rr25", "bf25", "largest-standard-tenor" ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T18:43:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "collectorWindow": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T18:43:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 1, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 0, "publishersRepresented": 0, "discoveryEventsScanned": 63, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 0, "feedEntriesScanned": 0, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 0, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 0, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "eventsSelected": 0 }, "items": [], "events": [] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "events": [] }, "marketRead": { "text": "2W RR25 moved 3.22 volatility points toward calls to 1.61%, leaving calls richer than puts; this was a notable move at the 77th percentile among 128 comparable historical observations. Front-end ATM IV averaged 36.22%, +1.92 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.15%, -0.01 points. 2W ATM IV rose 2.54 volatility points to 36.73%. 3M BF25 rose 0.36 volatility points to 2.42%. The nearest eligible forward, 11SEP26, rose $1,665.70 (+2.13%) to $79,945.57. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 88, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.92 volatility points to 36.22% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.01 volatility points to 40.15% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +2.21 volatility points to 0.80% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to 2.13% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.54 volatility points at 2W, to 36.73%.", "tenor": "2W", "value": 2.54 } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 1.35, "rr25Change": 2.21, "bf25Change": 0.05, "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "2W", "current": 36.73, "previous": 34.19, "change": 2.54, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 2.54, "movePercentile30d": 43.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 50.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 63.7, "classificationPercentile": 50.0, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 } }, "frontEndAverageAtm": { "current": 36.22, "previous": 34.3, "change": 1.92 }, "longEndAverageAtm": { "current": 40.15, "previous": 40.16, "change": -0.01 }, "oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "largestRr25Move": { "tenor": "2W", "current": 1.61, "previous": -1.61, "change": 3.22, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 3.22, "movePercentile30d": 73.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 77.3, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 96.3, "classificationPercentile": 77.3, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "direction": "toward calls", "currentSign": "call-rich" }, "largestBf25Move": { "tenor": "3M", "current": 2.42, "previous": 2.06, "change": 0.36, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 0.36, "movePercentile30d": 63.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 75.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 48.9, "classificationPercentile": 75.0, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 } }, "nearestEligibleForwardMove": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 5.553, "current": 79945.57, "previous": 78279.87, "change": 1665.7, "percentChange": 2.13 } }, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "targetExpiry": 1789238580645, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 34.95, "previous": 33.19, "change": 1.76, "percentChange": 5.3 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.62, "previous": -0.7, "change": 2.32, "percentChange": 331.43 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.76, "previous": 1.84, "change": -0.08, "percentChange": -4.35 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 1.76, "movePercentile30d": 26.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 31.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 47.4, "classificationPercentile": 31.2, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 2.32, "movePercentile30d": 66.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 63.3, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 95.6, "classificationPercentile": 66.7, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.08, "movePercentile30d": 3.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 8.6, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 38.5, "classificationPercentile": 8.6, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 } } }, { "tenor": "2W", "targetExpiry": 1789843380645, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 36.73, "previous": 34.19, "change": 2.54, "percentChange": 7.43 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.61, "previous": -1.61, "change": 3.22, "percentChange": 200.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.81, "previous": 1.89, "change": -0.08, "percentChange": -4.23 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 2.54, "movePercentile30d": 43.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 50.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 63.7, "classificationPercentile": 50.0, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 3.22, "movePercentile30d": 73.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 77.3, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 96.3, "classificationPercentile": 77.3, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.08, "movePercentile30d": 23.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 11.7, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 38.5, "classificationPercentile": 23.3, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 } } }, { "tenor": "1M", "targetExpiry": 1791225780645, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 36.98, "previous": 35.52, "change": 1.46, "percentChange": 4.11 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.89, "previous": -2.16, "change": 3.05, "percentChange": 141.2 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.13, "previous": 2.12, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 0.47 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 1.46, "movePercentile30d": 33.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 39.1, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 56.3, "classificationPercentile": 39.1, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 3.05, "movePercentile30d": 83.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 85.9, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 97.0, "classificationPercentile": 85.9, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.01, "movePercentile30d": 6.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 1.6, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 46.7, "classificationPercentile": 6.7, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 } } }, { "tenor": "3M", "targetExpiry": 1796496180645, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 38.93, "previous": 37.94, "change": 0.99, "percentChange": 2.61 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.04, "previous": -1.58, "change": 1.54, "percentChange": 97.47 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.42, "previous": 2.06, "change": 0.36, "percentChange": 17.48 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.99, "movePercentile30d": 46.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 39.8, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 54.8, "classificationPercentile": 46.7, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 1.54, "movePercentile30d": 70.0, "movePercentileFullHistory": 75.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 96.3, "classificationPercentile": 75.0, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.36, "movePercentile30d": 63.3, "movePercentileFullHistory": 75.0, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 48.9, "classificationPercentile": 75.0, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 } } }, { "tenor": "6M", "targetExpiry": 1804358580645, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 40.15, "previous": 40.16, "change": -0.01, "percentChange": -0.02 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.09, "previous": -1.0, "change": 0.91, "percentChange": 91.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.53, "previous": 2.5, "change": 0.03, "percentChange": 1.2 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.01, "movePercentile30d": 0.0, "movePercentileFullHistory": 0.8, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 17.0, "classificationPercentile": 0.8, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "rr25": { "absoluteMove": 0.91, "movePercentile30d": 66.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 74.2, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 96.3, "classificationPercentile": 74.2, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 }, "bf25": { "absoluteMove": 0.03, "movePercentile30d": 20.0, "movePercentileFullHistory": 18.8, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 43.7, "classificationPercentile": 20.0, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 30, "observationsFullHistory": 128, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 135 } } }, { "tenor": "9M", "targetExpiry": 1812220980645, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 41.4, "previous": 41.49, "change": -0.09, "percentChange": -0.22 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.1, "previous": -0.54, "change": 0.64, "percentChange": 118.52 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.78, "previous": 2.66, "change": 0.12, "percentChange": 4.51 }, "historicalSignificance": { "atmIv": { "absoluteMove": 0.09, "movePercentile30d": 6.7, "movePercentileFullHistory": 3.9, 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At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 17.22% over 24 hours, 41.22% over seven days and 35.61% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.45%, -0.87 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.27%, -0.30 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 1.01 points to 8.93 points. 1W ATM IV fell 1.22 volatility points to 33.40%. 1W BF25 fell 0.23 volatility points to 1.81%. The nearest eligible forward, 1SEP26, rose $405.75 (+0.52%) to $78,251.63. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -1.22, "current": 33.4 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-08-30", "href": "/reports/2026-08-30", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-08-30T23:59:00+00:00", "headline": "BTC one-week implied volatility trails realised volatility", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV rose 0.87 volatility points to 34.27%, a routine move at the 30th percentile. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 29.21% over 24 hours, 40.07% over seven days and 35.56% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.67%, +0.23 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.10%, -0.18 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 0.98 points to 7.95 points. 2W RR25 moved 0.28 volatility points toward calls to -0.96%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 rose 0.10 volatility points to 1.88%. The nearest eligible forward, 2SEP26, fell $564.56 (-0.72%) to $77,688.33. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": 0.87, "current": 34.27 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-08-31", "href": "/reports/2026-08-31", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-08-31T22:04:00+00:00", "headline": "BTC one-week implied volatility trails realised moves", "readerSummary": "1M RR25 moved 1.26 volatility points toward calls to 0.00%, leaving the wings balanced; this was a notable move at the 87th percentile. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 41.20% over 24 hours, 37.98% over seven days and 36.11% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 35.08%, +0.84 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.23%, +0.18 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 1.00 points to 7.63 points. 1W ATM IV rose 1.17 volatility points to 34.71%. 1M BF25 rose 0.16 volatility points to 2.22%. The nearest eligible forward, 3SEP26, rose $164.04 (+0.21%) to $78,963.42. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": 1.17, "current": 34.71 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-01", "href": "/reports/2026-09-01", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-01T22:27:00+00:00", "headline": "Btc\u2019s short-dated smile rotates as skew turns put-rich", "readerSummary": "1W RR25 moved 1.62 volatility points toward puts to -0.54%, leaving puts richer than calls; this was a notable move at the 82nd percentile. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 36.69% over 24 hours, 35.17% over seven days and 36.51% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 35.08%, -0.11 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.07%, -0.16 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 0.54 points to 7.97 points. 1W ATM IV fell 0.81 volatility points to 34.11%. 2W BF25 rose 0.45 volatility points to 2.36%. The nearest eligible forward, 4SEP26, fell $1,660.58 (-2.11%) to $77,132.21. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -0.81, "current": 34.11 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-02", "href": "/reports/2026-09-02", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-02T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options cheapen as short-term put volatility rises", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV fell 2.33 volatility points to 31.03%, a routine move at the 69th percentile. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 39.40% over 24 hours, 35.07% over seven days and 36.62% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 33.10%, -1.55 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.78%, -0.23 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 2.32 points to 10.97 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.07 volatility points toward puts to -1.02%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1Y BF25 fell 0.13 volatility points to 2.91%. The nearest eligible forward, 5SEP26, fell $195.75 (-0.25%) to $77,427.16. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -2.33, "current": 31.03 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-03", "href": "/reports/2026-09-03", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-03T16:38:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin\u2019s two-week skew makes the defining move", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV rose 5.75 volatility points to 37.02%, a large move at the 93rd percentile. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 38.38% over 24 hours, 34.96% over seven days and 36.91% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 37.40%, +4.20 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.41%, +0.66 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 5.37 points to 5.30 points. 2W RR25 moved 2.89 volatility points toward calls to 1.99%, leaving calls richer than puts. 2W BF25 rose 0.25 volatility points to 2.27%. The nearest eligible forward, 6SEP26, rose $3,450.12 (+4.46%) to $80,877.25. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": 5.75, "current": 37.02 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-04", "href": "/reports/2026-09-04", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin options reprice lower as 1w ATM IV falls", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV fell 5.04 volatility points to 32.01%, a large move at the 92nd percentile among 133 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 52.23% over 24 hours, 36.91% over seven days and 37.75% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.38%, -3.01 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 39.87%, -0.61 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.82 volatility points toward puts to 0.29%, leaving calls richer than puts. 1W BF25 fell 0.58 volatility points to 1.67%. The nearest eligible forward, 7SEP26, fell $1,156.34 (-1.43%) to $79,813.70. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": -5.04, "current": 32.01 } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-05", "href": "/reports/2026-09-05", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "headline": "Bitcoin\u2019s one-week volatility move dominates the surface", "readerSummary": "1W ATM IV rose 3.24 volatility points to 34.95%, a notable move at the 83rd percentile among 134 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 16.90% over 24 hours, 36.54% over seven days and 37.65% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 36.22%, +2.02 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.15%, +0.24 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.02 volatility points toward calls to 1.62%, leaving calls richer than puts. 1W BF25 rose 0.08 volatility points to 1.76%. The nearest eligible forward, 8SEP26, rose $266.87 (+0.34%) to $79,914.47. No sufficiently relevant context identified; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "readerSummarySource": "marketRead", "newsOutcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "change": 3.24, "current": 34.95 } } ], "dailyReportReview": { "reportsIncluded": 8, "firstReportDate": "2026-08-29", "lastReportDate": "2026-09-05", "largestReportedAtmMove": { "reportDate": "2026-09-03", "href": "/reports/2026-09-03", "tenor": "1W", "change": 5.75, "current": 37.02 }, "newsOutcomeCounts": { "No sufficiently relevant context identified": 5, "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst": 3 } }, "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T18:43:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Bitcoin options turn call-rich as two-week skew reprices", "standfirst": "Bitcoin two-week RR25 rose 3.22 volatility points to 1.61%, shifting from put-rich to call-rich pricing and registering as a notable historical move. Front-end ATM IV increased 1.92 points over the week, while long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged. The two-week ATM IV rise was 2.54 points to 36.73%.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-08-30", "headline": "Weekend begins without market catalyst", "summary": "No qualifying macro or Bitcoin-specific event was retained for this diary date.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying Bitcoin event was retained.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-08-31", "headline": "Sunday carries no retained context", "summary": "The diary contains no qualifying macro or crypto catalyst for this date.", "macro": { "summary": "No eligible macro development qualified.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No eligible Bitcoin development qualified.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-01", "headline": "Monday adds no qualifying catalyst", "summary": "No retained event offers relevant context for Bitcoin options during this date.", "macro": { "summary": "No report-relevant macro item qualified.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No report-relevant Bitcoin item qualified.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-02", "headline": "Midweek context remains unavailable", "summary": "No qualifying event was selected to explain the observed weekly surface change.", "macro": { "summary": "No usable macro context was identified.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No usable Bitcoin context was identified.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-03", "headline": "No catalyst enters the weekly diary", "summary": "The retained record contains no event meeting relevance requirements for this date.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro news was retained.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying crypto news was retained.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-04", "headline": "Thursday yields no selected context", "summary": "No evidence-backed event was included as options-market context for this date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.", "macro": { "summary": "No selected macro context is available.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No selected Bitcoin context is available.", "events": [] } }, { "reportDate": "2026-09-05", "headline": "Week closes without retained news", "summary": "No qualifying event was retained through the report cutoff on this date.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro context survived screening.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "No qualifying Bitcoin context survived screening.", "events": [] } } ] } }