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options see two-week implied volatility fall 0.38 points to 38.37%","executiveSummary":"The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -0.38 volatility points over the stored comparison.","evidenceIds":["largest-standard-tenor","front-atm","rr25","realised-vol","spot-index-24h"],"newsSummary":"CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin ETFs lost […] million in outflows Friday, and […] is barely green now”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin bounce fades as Binance records […] billion outflows after starting withdrawals”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":["17959892-cefd-4848-ae55-f5aa43e84cc3","54f1fa82-2c65-4bdb-9d9a-92d1912dba11"],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 40.50%, 5.35 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 35.15%; 24-hour realised volatility was 30.30% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.68%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 38.87% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 38.87% across 6M and 1Y."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.10 volatility points to -3.74% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 1.14% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.38 volatility points at 2W, to 38.37%.","tenor":"2W","value":-0.38},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was -1.33% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was -3.96% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change","label":"1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime","text":"BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -2.39 to -2.75 volatility points (-0.36 points). 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The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.","days":[{"reportDate":"2026-11-02","headline":"Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 0.38 points to 38.37%","summary":"The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -0.38 volatility points over the stored comparison. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin ETFs lost […] million in outflows Friday, and […] is barely green now”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin bounce fades as Binance records […] billion outflows after starting withdrawals”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.\n\nCoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin ETFs lost […] million in outflows Friday, and […] is barely green now”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin bounce fades as Binance records […] billion outflows after starting withdrawals”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.","events":[{"eventId":"17959892-cefd-4848-ae55-f5aa43e84cc3","title":"Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million in outflows Friday, and 2026 is barely green now","publisher":"CoinDesk","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/02/bitcoin-etfs-lost-usd643-million-in-outflows-friday-and-2026-is-barely-green-now","publishedAt":"2026-11-02T06:46:41+00:00"},{"eventId":"54f1fa82-2c65-4bdb-9d9a-92d1912dba11","title":"Live updates: Bitcoin bounce fades as Binance records $6 billion outflows after starting withdrawals","publisher":"CoinDesk","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/02/live-updates-binance-records-usd6-billion-outflows-after-starting-withdrawals-less-then-4-of-total-holdings","publishedAt":"2026-11-02T08:49:30+00:00"}]}}]},"newsStatus":"context","headline":"Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 0.38 points to 38.37%","standfirst":"BTC 2W ATM IV is 38.37 percent, compared with 38.75 percent at the prior cutoff.","leadChart":{"asset":"BTC","metric":"atmIv","eventType":"atmIv","label":"2W","current":38.37,"previous":38.75,"change":-0.38,"currentSnapshotAt":"2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00","previousSnapshotAt":"2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00","evidenceRef":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","provenance":{"kind":"report-event","candidateId":"btc-largestAtmMove","candidateSource":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","eventRef":"events[type=atmIv,label=2W]","valuesRef":"tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv"},"event":{"type":"atmIv","title":"Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move","label":"2W","value":-0.38}},"crossAssetMarketContext":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"market-context-mcp","status":"available","asset":"BTC","sessionDate":"2026-10-30","asOfTimestamp":"2026-10-30T20:00:00+00:00","summary":"Previous session (latest completed): BTC cross-asset context for 2026-10-30 The crypto-to-SPX realised-volatility ratio was 2.75, at the 25.1 percentile across 267 prior observations. 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