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vMinus7dRvPoints":4.65,"oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints":-3.2,"oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints":3.5},"fitQuality":{"currentObjective":0.10793174,"previousObjective":0.08159128,"currentLiveError":140.00842268,"previousLiveError":105.00657205},"coverage":{"currentListedExpiries":13,"previousListedExpiries":11,"comparedListedExpiries":10,"addedExpiries":["20NOV26","29JAN27","2NOV26"],"removedExpiries":["29OCT26"],"fixedTenors":["1W","2W","1M","3M","6M","9M"],"suppressedFixedTenors":["1Y"]},"commentary":{"source":"codex","model":"gpt-6.1-sol","headline":"Bitcoin options show lower 2w ATM IV","executiveSummary":"The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -1.07 volatility points over the stored comparison.","evidenceIds":["largest-standard-tenor","front-atm","back-atm","rr25","realised-vol","spot-index-24h"],"newsSummary":"Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":["239519c3-d37a-460b-92c5-08c2b0f2ebaf","a3e4d85f-4d4a-44f5-8b9e-db362477c353"],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 35.78%, 4.65 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.13%; 24-hour realised volatility was 38.98% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.28%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.80 volatility points to 35.35% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.14 volatility points to 37.68% across 6M and 1Y."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.26 volatility points to -2.69% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.08 volatility points to 1.00% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.07 volatility points at 2W, to 35.34%.","tenor":"2W","value":-1.07},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was +0.71% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was -0.24% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change","label":"1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime","text":"BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from -1.05 to -0.85 volatility points (+0.20 points). 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At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 38.98% over 24 hours, 31.13% over seven days and 32.28% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 35.35%, -0.80 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.68%, -0.14 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.82 volatility points toward puts to -2.71%, leaving puts richer than calls. 3M BF25 fell 0.14 volatility points to 1.02%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.71%; nearest eligible forward 1NOV26: +0.60% to $81,037.16. 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The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.","days":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-29","headline":"Bitcoin options show lower 2w ATM IV","summary":"The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -1.07 volatility points over the stored comparison. Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.\n\nDecrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.","events":[{"eventId":"239519c3-d37a-460b-92c5-08c2b0f2ebaf","title":"$11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means","publisher":"Decrypt","url":"https://decrypt.co/382171/11-billion-bitcoin-options-expire-tomorrow-what-means","publishedAt":"2026-10-29T17:15:11+00:00"},{"eventId":"a3e4d85f-4d4a-44f5-8b9e-db362477c353","title":"Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4% as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain","publisher":"The Defiant","url":"https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/fed-holds-rates-at-3-75-4-as-bitcoin-gives-back-brief-gain","publishedAt":"2026-10-28T18:12:28+00:00"}]}}]},"newsStatus":"context","headline":"Bitcoin options show lower 2w ATM IV","standfirst":"BTC 2W ATM IV is 35.34 percent, compared with 36.41 percent at the prior cutoff.","leadChart":{"asset":"BTC","metric":"atmIv","eventType":"atmIv","label":"2W","current":35.34,"previous":36.41,"change":-1.07,"currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00","previousSnapshotAt":"2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00","evidenceRef":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","provenance":{"kind":"report-event","candidateId":"btc-largestAtmMove","candidateSource":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","eventRef":"events[type=atmIv,label=2W]","valuesRef":"tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv"},"event":{"type":"atmIv","title":"Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move","label":"2W","value":-1.07}},"crossAssetMarketContext":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"market-context-mcp","status":"available","asset":"BTC","sessionDate":"2026-10-28","asOfTimestamp":"2026-10-28T20:00:00+00:00","summary":"Previous session (latest completed): BTC cross-asset context for 2026-10-28 The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 15.00 points, at the 12.1 percentile across 265 prior observations. 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