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options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.40 points to 36.82%","executiveSummary":"The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -1.40 volatility points over the stored comparison.","evidenceIds":["largest-standard-tenor","front-atm","realised-vol","rr25","spot-index-24h"],"newsSummary":"The Block reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Crypto longs lose […] million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below […]”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. Decrypt reported: “Bitcoin ETFs Snap Two-Week Losing Streak Despite Late-Week Slide”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":["d171c555-29aa-410c-bc1b-fc3bd6ea4bcf","e584f4eb-9db7-4824-859c-7af076f4564d"],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 35.77%, 4.21 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.56%; 24-hour realised volatility was 18.87% and 30-day realised volatility was 31.59%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.77 volatility points to 36.10% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.23 volatility points to 38.12% across 6M and 1Y."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.38 volatility points to -3.59% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 2.25% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.40 volatility points at 2W, to 36.82%.","tenor":"2W","value":-1.4},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was +0.74% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was -0.46% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change","label":"1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime","text":"BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +0.68 to -0.06 volatility points (-0.74 points). 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At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 18.87% over 24 hours, 31.56% over seven days and 31.59% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 36.10%, -0.77 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.12%, -0.23 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.79 volatility points toward calls to -3.09%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 fell 0.16 volatility points to 2.16%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.74%; nearest eligible forward 28OCT26: +0.44% to $80,689.01. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","wordCount":106,"source":"deterministic structured report facts","evidenceFields":["summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent","realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent","summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move","summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove","newsContext.outcome","newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"]},"facts":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 35.77%, 4.21 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.56%; 24-hour realised volatility was 18.87% and 30-day realised volatility was 31.59%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.77 volatility points to 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options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.40 points to 36.82%","standfirst":"BTC 2W ATM IV is 36.82 percent, compared with 38.22 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.","days":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-25","headline":"Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.40 points to 36.82%","summary":"The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -1.40 volatility points over the stored comparison. The Block reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Crypto longs lose […] million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below […]”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. Decrypt reported: “Bitcoin ETFs Snap Two-Week Losing Streak Despite Late-Week Slide”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.\n\nThe Block reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Crypto longs lose […] million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below […]”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. Decrypt reported: “Bitcoin ETFs Snap Two-Week Losing Streak Despite Late-Week Slide”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.","macro":{"summary":"No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.","events":[]},"crypto":{"summary":"Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.","events":[{"eventId":"d171c555-29aa-410c-bc1b-fc3bd6ea4bcf","title":"Crypto longs lose $404 million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below $80,000","publisher":"The Block","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-24-crypto-longs-lose-404-million-in-four-hours-as-bitcoin-briefly-slips-below-80000-431608","publishedAt":"2026-10-24T17:44:36+00:00"},{"eventId":"e584f4eb-9db7-4824-859c-7af076f4564d","title":"Bitcoin ETFs Snap Two-Week Losing Streak Despite Late-Week Slide","publisher":"Decrypt","url":"https://decrypt.co/381777/bitcoin-etfs-snap-two-week-losing-streak-despite-late-week-slide","publishedAt":"2026-10-25T14:01:03+00:00"}]}}]},"newsStatus":"context","headline":"Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.40 points to 36.82%","standfirst":"BTC 2W ATM IV is 36.82 percent, compared with 38.22 percent at the prior cutoff.","leadChart":{"asset":"BTC","metric":"atmIv","eventType":"atmIv","label":"2W","current":36.82,"previous":38.22,"change":-1.4,"currentSnapshotAt":"2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00","previousSnapshotAt":"2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00","evidenceRef":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","provenance":{"kind":"report-event","candidateId":"btc-largestAtmMove","candidateSource":"summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","eventRef":"events[type=atmIv,label=2W]","valuesRef":"tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv"},"event":{"type":"atmIv","title":"Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move","label":"2W","value":-1.4}},"crossAssetMarketContext":{"schemaVersion":1,"source":"market-context-mcp","status":"available","asset":"BTC","sessionDate":"2026-10-23","asOfTimestamp":"2026-10-23T20:00:00+00:00","summary":"Previous session (latest completed): BTC cross-asset context for 2026-10-23 The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 17.57 points, at the 19.8 percentile across 262 prior observations. 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