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options show higher 2w RR25 skew","executiveSummary":"The 2W RR25 skew change for BTC was +1.70 volatility points over the stored comparison.","evidenceIds":["rr25","front-atm","back-atm","realised-vol","spot-index-24h"],"newsSummary":"CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin holds above […] as oil prices hit six-month high”. 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relationship."],"selectionReason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 26OCT26: +69.61 USD (+0.09%) to 81590.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","canonicalEventId":"e058585a-7dce-4bec-8ac9-620de6399515","status":"selected","eventCategory":"unknown","relevance":"broader crypto","relationship":"neutral","causal_confidence":"low","matched_signals":["Forward 26OCT26: +69.61 USD (+0.09%) to 81590.82 USD"],"selection_reason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 26OCT26: +69.61 USD (+0.09%) to 81590.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","event_cluster_id":"market-event-6c9900b4a8ad"},"additional_coverage":[]}]},"newsContext":{"outcome":"Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst","highest_causal_confidence":"low","section_heading":"Relevant market event","events":[{"event_cluster_id":"market-event-6c9900b4a8ad","status":"selected","eventCategory":"unknown","relevance":"broader 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contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 26OCT26: +69.61 USD (+0.09%) to 81590.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","canonicalEventId":"e058585a-7dce-4bec-8ac9-620de6399515","status":"selected","eventCategory":"unknown","relevance":"broader crypto","relationship":"neutral","causal_confidence":"low","matched_signals":["Forward 26OCT26: +69.61 USD (+0.09%) to 81590.82 USD"],"selection_reason":"Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 26OCT26: +69.61 USD (+0.09%) to 81590.82 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","event_cluster_id":"market-event-6c9900b4a8ad"},"additional_coverage":[]}],"coverage_status":"healthy","coverage_basis":"monitored-source-search"},"marketRead":{"text":"1W ATM IV fell 1.87 volatility points to 31.03%, a routine move at the 60th percentile among 25 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 32.80% over 24 hours, 31.57% over seven days and 32.50% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.18%, -1.24 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.95%, -0.02 points. 2W RR25 moved 1.70 volatility points toward calls to -1.88%, leaving puts richer than calls. 3M BF25 fell 0.10 volatility points to 2.17%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.17%; nearest eligible forward 26OCT26: +0.09% to $81,590.82. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","wordCount":106,"source":"deterministic structured report facts","evidenceFields":["summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent","realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent","summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move","summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove","newsContext.outcome","newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"]},"facts":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.03%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 31.57%; 24-hour realised volatility was 32.80% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.50%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.24 volatility points to 34.18% 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