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7dRvPoints":-2.9,"oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints":-0.83,"oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints":-1.19},"fitQuality":{"currentObjective":0.09552901,"previousObjective":0.09482799,"currentLiveError":83.0097551,"previousLiveError":97.9427275},"coverage":{"currentListedExpiries":11,"previousListedExpiries":11,"comparedListedExpiries":10,"addedExpiries":["25OCT26"],"removedExpiries":["21OCT26"],"fixedTenors":["1W","2W","1M","3M","6M","9M"],"suppressedFixedTenors":["1Y"]},"commentary":{"source":"codex","model":"gpt-6.1-sol","headline":"Bitcoin options accompany a 2.52% 24-hour spot-index gain","executiveSummary":"Derivasys data show Bitcoin ATM IV across the one-week, two-week and one-month tenors rose 0.20 volatility points to an average of 34.44%. Bitcoin call-minus-put skew shifted toward puts across the headline tenors. The skew change establishes a relative shift between put-side and call-side volatility; it does not establish an absolute rise in put implied volatility.","evidenceIds":["spot-index-24h","front-atm","rr25","realised-vol"],"newsSummary":"Cointelegraph's account placed Bitcoin's advance within an equity-market backdrop linked in its reporting to SpaceX's earnings beat. This adds contemporaneous market context to the spot gain, while the options measurements describe a modest front-end volatility increase and a relative shift toward puts.","marketContextSummary":"","marketContext":[],"newsEvidenceIds":["a152410b-c526-4e47-b17a-65af2644b827"],"takeaways":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.75%, 2.90 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 34.65%; 24-hour realised volatility was 32.58% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.94%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.20 volatility points to 34.44% across 1W, 2W and 1M."},{"id":"back-atm","label":"Long end","text":"Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.08 volatility points to 37.74% across 6M and 1Y."},{"id":"rr25","label":"Skew","text":"RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.17 volatility points to -2.84% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"bf25","label":"Convexity","text":"BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 2.07% across the six headline tenors."},{"id":"largest-standard-tenor","label":"Largest standard-tenor move","text":"The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.69 volatility points at 2W, to 35.75%.","tenor":"2W","value":0.69},{"id":"spot-index-24h","label":"24h spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was +2.52% over 24 hours.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h"},{"id":"spot-index-7d","label":"7d spot-index return","text":"BTC spot-index return was +3.67% over seven days.","source":"realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d"},{"id":"btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change","label":"1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime","text":"BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.08 to +4.08 volatility points (+0.00 points). The slope did not cross 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the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.","primary_article":{"id":"a152410b-c526-4e47-b17a-65af2644b827","sourceId":"cointelegraph","publisher":"Cointelegraph","title":"Bitcoin price tags $84.6K as US stocks head higher on SpaceX Q3 earnings beat","url":"https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-tags-846k-as-us-stocks-head-higher-on-spacex-q3-earnings-beat","publishedAt":"2026-10-21T15:13:17+00:00","summary":"Bitcoin extended gains to approach $85,000 after US stock markets reacted to higher-than-expected SpaceX earnings.","matchedTerms":["BTC","Bitcoin"],"topics":["market","other"],"sourceKind":"media","rightsStatus":"link-and-summary","selectionScore":38,"quality":{"eligible":true,"score":37.5,"checks":{"verifiedSourceMetadata":true,"contentKind":true,"status":true},"sourceCount":1,"sourceQuality":0.6125,"signals":{"confidence":0.53,"importance":0.502,"novelty":1.0,"corroboration":0.0,"sourceQuality":0.6125,"effectiveSourceQuality":0.6125,"catalystScore":0.0978,"effectiveCatalystScore":0.0978,"contentKind":"reporting","status":"developing"},"thresholds":{"minimumConfidence":null,"minimumImportance":null,"minimumSourceQuality":0.58,"minimumCatalystScore":null,"minimumMediaReliability":0.6},"policy":"source-backed-context-v1","role":"context","attributionRequired":true},"relevanceReasons":["Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 24OCT26: +2157.14 USD (+2.61%) to 84654.70 USD; 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At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 32.58% over 24 hours, 34.65% over seven days and 32.94% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.44%, +0.20 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.74%, +0.08 points. 2W ATM IV rose 0.69 volatility points to 35.75%. 2W BF25 rose 0.24 volatility points to 1.99%. 24-hour spot-index: +2.52%; nearest eligible forward 24OCT26: +2.61% to $84,654.70. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.","wordCount":108,"source":"deterministic structured report facts","evidenceFields":["summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove","realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent","realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent","realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent","summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm","summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move","summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move","summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove","newsContext.outcome","newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"]},"facts":[{"id":"realised-vol","label":"Implied versus realised","text":"At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.75%, 2.90 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 34.65%; 24-hour realised volatility was 32.58% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.94%."},{"id":"front-atm","label":"Front end","text":"Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.20 volatility points to 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IV","dailyWindowHours":{"minimum":23,"maximum":25},"samplingClockToleranceSeconds":0,"minimumHistoryObservations":20,"crossingDefinition":"strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative","zeroHandling":"an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing","rarityBasis":"absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors","causality":"not assessed","materialDeadbandVolPoints":0.5,"materialCrossingDefinition":"both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included","materialPolicyStatus":"provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim"},"statement":"BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.08 to +4.08 volatility points (+0.00 points). 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The advance accompanied a modest increase in average front-end implied volatility and a relative skew shift toward puts. Those observations describe different dimensions of the market: the underlying gained while relative put-side volatility strengthened against calls. At-the-money implied volatility measures volatility implied by prices of options near the current underlying price; its movement need not mirror the direction of spot.","days":[{"reportDate":"2026-10-21","headline":"Bitcoin options accompany a 2.52% 24-hour spot-index gain","summary":"Bitcoin's 24-hour spot-index return was +2.52% across the exact report window ending at the cutoff. The accompanying options changes were differentiated: Bitcoin two-week ATM IV rose 0.69 volatility points to 35.75%, while Bitcoin one-week ATM IV fell 0.04 volatility points to 31.75%.\n\nAt the cutoff, Bitcoin one-week ATM implied volatility stood 2.90 volatility points below Bitcoin seven-day realised volatility of 34.65%. That comparison places forward-looking implied volatility alongside observed variability; the gap alone establishes neither cheapness nor a recommendation. Bitcoin one-year surface measurements remain unavailable because the target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots, and extrapolated values are suppressed.\n\nCointelegraph's account placed Bitcoin's advance within an equity-market backdrop linked in its reporting to SpaceX's earnings beat. 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IV","dailyWindowHours":{"minimum":23,"maximum":25},"samplingClockToleranceSeconds":0,"minimumHistoryObservations":20,"crossingDefinition":"strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative","zeroHandling":"an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing","rarityBasis":"absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors","causality":"not assessed","materialDeadbandVolPoints":0.5,"materialCrossingDefinition":"both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included","materialPolicyStatus":"provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim"},"statement":"BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.08 to +4.08 volatility points (+0.00 points). 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