{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-18", "generatedAt": "2026-10-18T17:01:38+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 698301, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 688233, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "BTC", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 60, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.15, "rv24hPercent": 23.59, "rv7dPercent": 34.83, "rv30dPercent": 33.13, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. 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"1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w ATM implied volatility rises 3.17 points", "executiveSummary": "Bitcoin's 1W ATM implied volatility was 0.30 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 34.83%, measured using one-minute returns through the surface cutoff. That comparison does not establish whether options are cheap or expensive. Bitcoin's spot index returned -0.15% over 24 hours, a separate observation that does not explain the volatility increase.", "evidenceIds": [ "largest-standard-tenor", "realised-vol", "spot-index-24h", "btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change" ], "newsSummary": "In underlying-market news, [Decrypt reported](https://decrypt.co/381246/bitcoin-etfs-shed-nearly-1-billion-two-weeks-uptober-red) Bitcoin ETF net outflows of $228.6 million for the week, following $681.1 million in the preceding week. The provisional, single-source report describes successive weekly flows, rather than flows over the daily options window. It provides context without establishing a causal link to the 1W implied-volatility move.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "16be05e3-4bd2-4fc2-af36-e46dc75bfc9a" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 34.53%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 34.83%; 24-hour realised volatility was 23.59% and 30-day realised volatility was 33.13%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +2.16 volatility points to 35.70% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to 37.74% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to -3.10% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 2.09% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +3.17 volatility points at 1W, to 34.53%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 3.17 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -0.15% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -3.27% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.40 to +2.24 volatility points (-2.16 points). The slope did not cross zero." } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "completedScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "BTC" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 2, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "281284d51368eddff2649a1a0232bd6eca53a29e240da85f950f0d8a28aad130" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": 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validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1\",\"historicalBonus\":0.0,\"historicalMagnitudeScale\":1.0,\"magnitudeScale\":1.0,\"magnitudeScore\":18.938,\"normalizedMagnitude\":9.469,\"rarity\":{\"magnitudeIndependent\":false,\"percentile\":null,\"policyVersion\":1,\"tail\":\"none\",\"tailDistance\":0.0},\"selectionAdjustment\":-19.938,\"selectionScore\":-1.0,\"totalScore\":18.938,\"unit\":\"volatility points\",\"version\":3},\"selectionReason\":\"expiry-specific-fit-quality-and-matching-rotation-history-unavailable\",\"selectionScore\":-1.0,\"source\":\"surfaceEvents[rotation]\",\"story\":\"BTC 21OCT26 smile rotation moved lower by 9.47\",\"tenor\":null}],\"chosenStoryId\":\"btc-largestAtmMove\",\"nativeFacts\":{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"comparison_status\":null,\"current_snapshot_at\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previous_snapshot_at\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"report_date\":\"2026-10-18\",\"source_snapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698301,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688233,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":3.17,\"current\":34.53,\"percentChange\":10.11,\"previous\":31.36},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":0.13,\"current\":2.13,\"percentChange\":6.5,\"previous\":2.0},\"rr25\":{\"change\":0.35,\"current\":-4.11,\"percentChange\":7.85,\"previous\":-4.46},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.3,\"current\":35.79,\"percentChange\":6.87,\"previous\":33.49},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.03,\"current\":2.01,\"percentChange\":-1.47,\"previous\":2.04},\"rr25\":{\"change\":0.45,\"current\":-3.75,\"percentChange\":10.71,\"previous\":-4.2},\"tenor\":\"2W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.01,\"current\":36.77,\"percentChange\":2.82,\"previous\":35.76},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.08,\"current\":2.06,\"percentChange\":-3.74,\"previous\":2.14},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-0.2,\"current\":-3.32,\"percentChange\":-6.41,\"previous\":-3.12},\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.28,\"current\":36.95,\"percentChange\":0.76,\"previous\":36.67},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.05,\"current\":2.17,\"percentChange\":-2.25,\"previous\":2.22},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-0.27,\"current\":-2.55,\"percentChange\":-11.84,\"previous\":-2.28},\"tenor\":\"3M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.05,\"current\":37.74,\"percentChange\":0.13,\"previous\":37.69},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.16,\"current\":2.06,\"percentChange\":-7.21,\"previous\":2.22},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-0.16,\"current\":-1.78,\"percentChange\":-9.88,\"previous\":-1.62},\"tenor\":\"6M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.01,\"current\":38.23,\"percentChange\":0.03,\"previous\":38.22},\"availability\":\"available\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":-0.14,\"current\":2.11,\"percentChange\":-6.22,\"previous\":2.25},\"rr25\":{\"change\":-0.16,\"current\":-1.57,\"percentChange\":-11.35,\"previous\":-1.41},\"tenor\":\"9M\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"availability\":\"unavailable\",\"bf25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"rr25\":{\"change\":null,\"current\":null,\"percentChange\":null,\"previous\":null},\"tenor\":\"1Y\",\"unavailableReason\":\"The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed.\"}],\"window_hours\":24.0}}" }, "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-13107e951d78", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "16be05e3-4bd2-4fc2-af36-e46dc75bfc9a", "sourceId": "decrypt", "publisher": "Decrypt", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs Shed Nearly $1 Billion in Two Weeks as Uptober Stays Red", "url": "https://decrypt.co/381246/bitcoin-etfs-shed-nearly-1-billion-two-weeks-uptober-red", "publishedAt": "2026-10-18T15:01:04+00:00", "summary": "Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $228.6 million this week, following a $681.1 million drain the week before and pushing October deep into the red.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "Bitcoin ETFs Shed Nearly", "Two Weeks", "Uptober Stays Red Bitcoin" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.6, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6025, "catalystScore": 0.0747, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0747, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "16be05e3-4bd2-4fc2-af36-e46dc75bfc9a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-13107e951d78" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market event", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-13107e951d78", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "16be05e3-4bd2-4fc2-af36-e46dc75bfc9a", "sourceId": "decrypt", "publisher": "Decrypt", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs Shed Nearly $1 Billion in Two Weeks as Uptober Stays Red", "url": "https://decrypt.co/381246/bitcoin-etfs-shed-nearly-1-billion-two-weeks-uptober-red", "publishedAt": "2026-10-18T15:01:04+00:00", "summary": "Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $228.6 million this week, following a $681.1 million drain the week before and pushing October deep into the red.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "Bitcoin ETFs Shed Nearly", "Two Weeks", "Uptober Stays Red Bitcoin" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.6, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6025, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6025, "catalystScore": 0.0747, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.0747, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "16be05e3-4bd2-4fc2-af36-e46dc75bfc9a", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 21OCT26: -173.23 USD (-0.21%) to 81101.80 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-13107e951d78" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1W ATM IV rose 3.17 volatility points to 34.53%, a notable move at the 87th percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 23.59% over 24 hours, 34.83% over seven days and 33.13% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 35.70%, +2.16 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 37.74%, +0.05 points. 2W RR25 moved 0.45 volatility points toward calls to -3.75%, leaving puts richer than calls. 6M BF25 fell 0.16 volatility points to 2.06%. 24-hour spot-index: -0.15%; nearest eligible forward 21OCT26: -0.21% to $81,101.80. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 106, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 34.53%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 34.83%; 24-hour realised volatility was 23.59% and 30-day realised volatility was 33.13%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +2.16 volatility points to 35.70% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to 37.74% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to -3.10% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 2.09% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +3.17 volatility points at 1W, to 34.53%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 3.17 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -0.15% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -3.27% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 1.36, "rr25Change": 0.03, "bf25Change": -0.04, "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "current": 34.53, "previous": 31.36, "change": 3.17, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 3.17, "currentLevel": 34.53, "movePercentile30d": 87.0, "movePercentileFullHistory": 78.6, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 69.6, "classificationPercentile": 87.0, "label": "notable", "observations30d": 23, "observationsFullHistory": 42, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 46, "provenance": { "schemaVersion": 2, "reportDate": "2026-10-18", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "eligibilityPolicy": "known native timestamps; end <= current start; matching UTC endpoint clocks and supported horizon", "sourceEndpoints": [ { "date": "2026-08-29", "snapshotAt": 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s_lower_expiry\":true,\"has_upper_expiry\":true,\"is_extrapolated\":false,\"label\":\"1W\",\"risk_reversal_nodes_json\":{\"10C\":{\"delta\":0.09999999987911765,\"delta_error\":-1.2088235967766536e-10,\"label\":\"10C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.05269396854440253,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":86003.0993784133,\"target_delta\":0.1,\"vol\":29.4},\"10P\":{\"delta\":-0.10000000533693364,\"delta_error\":-5.336933631139296e-09,\"label\":\"10P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.060847982416851513,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":76772.10698823616,\"target_delta\":-0.1,\"vol\":35.25},\"15C\":{\"delta\":0.150000007171018,\"delta_error\":7.1710180016282266e-09,\"label\":\"15C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.04183179297605691,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":85073.97391088468,\"target_delta\":0.15,\"vol\":28.78},\"15P\":{\"delta\":-0.14999999545486012,\"delta_error\":4.54513987557803e-09,\"label\":\"15P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.04615295566902421,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":77908.6051376964,\"target_delta\":-0.15,\"vol\":33.17},\"20C\":{\"delta\":0.19999999983699615,\"delta_error\":-1.630038604094608e-10,\"label\":\"20C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.033746777195015724,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":84388.92254647473,\"target_delta\":0.2,\"vol\":28.48},\"20P\":{\"delta\":-0.2000000061396268,\"delta_error\":-6.1396267792002135e-09,\"label\":\"20P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.03587936591765374,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":78713.13179715916,\"target_delta\":-0.2,\"vol\":31.89},\"25C\":{\"delta\":0.250000002852496,\"delta_error\":2.8524960171694147e-09,\"label\":\"25C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.027060753208710073,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":83826.57820489648,\"target_delta\":0.25,\"vol\":28.34},\"25P\":{\"delta\":-0.24999999324133768,\"delta_error\":6.7586623242466e-09,\"label\":\"25P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.02778888522215134,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":79352.54195043849,\"target_delta\":-0.25,\"vol\":30.99},\"30C\":{\"delta\":0.2999999957295884,\"delta_error\":-4.270411579909705e-09,\"label\":\"30C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.02118010421374268,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":83335.0701316975,\"target_delta\":0.3,\"vol\":28.31},\"30P\":{\"delta\":-0.30000000501462054,\"delta_error\":-5.014620552135085e-09,\"label\":\"30P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.02096128196983474,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":79896.18339611852,\"target_delta\":-0.3,\"vol\":30.33},\"35C\":{\"delta\":0.35000000564662337,\"delta_error\":5.646623391086791e-09,\"label\":\"35C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.015786734928475855,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":82886.8231912702,\"target_delta\":0.35,\"vol\":28.35},\"35P\":{\"delta\":-0.3499999988534541,\"delta_error\":1.1465458582549104e-09,\"label\":\"35P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.014925591891903634,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":80379.87022101822,\"target_delta\":-0.35,\"vol\":29.81},\"40C\":{\"delta\":0.40000000586087114,\"delta_error\":5.860871121754485e-09,\"label\":\"40C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.010681785837584855,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":82464.76837931713,\"target_delta\":0.4,\"vol\":28.45},\"40P\":{\"delta\":-0.3999999986333619,\"delta_error\":1.3666381359911384e-09,\"label\":\"40P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.009403061559689561,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":80824.99847825884,\"target_delta\":-0.4,\"vol\":29.4},\"5C\":{\"delta\":0.0499999929759894,\"delta_error\":-7.024010602318942e-09,\"label\":\"5C\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0711659193647169,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":87606.50785002127,\"target_delta\":0.05,\"vol\":31.01},\"5P\":{\"delta\":-0.049999998489464986,\"delta_error\":1.5105350165134368e-09,\"label\":\"5P\",\"log_moneyness\":-0.08832262658509121,\"option_type\":\"put\",\"strike\":74691.53305707611,\"target_delta\":-0.05,\"vol\":39.76},\"AMTF\":{\"delta\":0.5000000066045236,\"delta_error\":6.6045235946887715e-09,\"label\":\"AMTF\",\"log_moneyness\":0.0,\"option_type\":\"call\",\"strike\":81588.58531533008,\"target_delta\":0.5,\"vol\":28.8}},\"risk_reversals_json\":{\"rr_05\":-8.75,\"rr_10\":-5.85,\"rr_15\":-4.39,\"rr_20\":-3.41,\"rr_25\":-2.65,\"rr_30\":-2.02,\"rr_35\":-1.46,\"rr_40\":-0.95},\"row_kind\":\"fixed_tenor\"}],\"qualityPolicy\":\"fixed_tenor; non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:be5bb7a69b1a0a1c871c7ad4dd1739a32c8d46a7526f6ee5246d47245a4f121e\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.56,\"current\":31.36,\"percentChange\":8.89,\"previous\":28.8},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.59,\"current\":35.76,\"percentChange\":1.68,\"previous\":35.17},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +4.40 to +2.24 volatility points (-2.16 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-18\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698301,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688233,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":3.17,\"current\":34.53,\"percentChange\":10.11,\"previous\":31.36},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.01,\"current\":36.77,\"percentChange\":2.82,\"previous\":35.76},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "56bebce25a918bd7b8d9199ebfea4b810c9ac67dc7b85424a4b765f88ef56bf2", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "surfaceDiagnostics": { "version": 1, "kind": "nativeSurfaceDiagnostics", "policy": { "version": 1, "levelInspectionVolPoints": 10.0, "changeInspectionVolPoints": 5.0, "basis": "Explicit operational inspection thresholds; not calibrated materiality or quality limits", "priority": "daily change spread", "fitAssessment": "observations only; no pass/fail calibration", "quoteAssessment": "raw quotes are not saved in native report inputs", "confirmation": "same pair and exact window; matching signed level gap or change gap at 2W/1M" }, "unit": "volatility points", "legs": [ { "asset": "BTC", "snapshots": { "current": { "id": 698301, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 688233, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "nativeProvenanceStatus": "available", "nativeProvenanceReason": null, "rawQuotes": { "status": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "raw-quote-evidence-not-saved", "qualityAssessment": null }, "fit": { "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "observations": { "currentObjective": 0.21407631, "previousObjective": 0.30078661, "currentLiveError": 231.87552912, "previousLiveError": 215.68016654 }, "qualityAssessment": null }, "expiryCoverage": { "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "observations": { "currentListedExpiries": 12, "previousListedExpiries": 12, "comparedListedExpiries": 11, "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "bracketing": { "status": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "listed-expiry-bounds-not-saved" } }, "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].report.sourceSnapshots", "rows[asset=BTC].report.fitQuality", "rows[asset=BTC].report.coverage", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors" ], "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null } ], "pairs": [], "sourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"coverage\":{\"comparedListedExpiries\":11,\"currentListedExpiries\":12,\"fixedTenors\":[\"1W\",\"2W\",\"1M\",\"3M\",\"6M\",\"9M\"],\"previousListedExpiries\":12,\"suppressedFixedTenors\":[\"1Y\"]},\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"fitQuality\":{\"currentLiveError\":231.87552912,\"currentObjective\":0.21407631,\"previousLiveError\":215.68016654,\"previousObjective\":0.30078661},\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-18\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698301,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688233,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":3.17,\"current\":34.53,\"previous\":31.36},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.3,\"current\":35.79,\"previous\":33.49},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"2W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":1.01,\"current\":36.77,\"previous\":35.76},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "sourceSha256": "a71331060e66760d38ad19a81b504e5ac86de4fe7481aefdb3b6875ac8f090fe" }, "skewWhipsaw": { "version": 1, "kind": "nativeTwoDayRr25Whipsaw", "tenor": "1W", "metric": "rr25", "unit": "volatility points", "policy": { "version": 1, "dailyWindowHours": 24, "minimumAbsoluteLegVolPoints": 1.0, "basis": "Explicit operational inspection threshold on both legs; not calibrated materiality or rarity", "endpointPolicy": "three native endpoints; exact adjacent UTC windows and identical shared snapshot ID/value", "zeroCrossing": "strict opposite endpoint signs; zero endpoint is a touch", "historyScope": "only the preceding native day; no nearest-date substitution or inferred endpoint" }, "observations": [ { "id": "btc-1w-rr25-two-day-whipsaw", "asset": "BTC", "status": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "endpoints": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "snapshotId": 678204, "value": -2.65 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "snapshotId": 688233, "value": -4.46 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "snapshotId": 698301, "value": -4.11 } ], "dailyMoves": [ -1.81, 0.35 ], "oppositeMoves": true, "inspectionRequired": false, "grossMovement": 2.16, "netChange": -1.46, "zeroCrossings": [ null, null ], "zeroTouches": [ false, false ], "statement": "BTC 1W RR25 adjacent daily moves were -1.81 then +0.35 volatility points; gross movement 2.16 versus net -1.46. 0 strict zero crossings. The operational whipsaw inspection threshold is not met." } ], "sourceCanonicalJson": "{\"currentRows\":[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-18\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":698301,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":688233,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":0.35,\"current\":-4.11,\"previous\":-4.46},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}],\"historicalRows\":[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-17\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":688233,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":678204,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"availability\":\"available\",\"rr25\":{\"change\":-1.81,\"current\":-4.46,\"previous\":-2.65},\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]}", "sourceSha256": "55b43a4c16fce9d47db44af1521bc34df9ed7cb23bb17ec16fc7b1e47ede9d9b" }, "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-18T17:13:25+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w ATM implied volatility rises 3.17 points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin's 1W ATM implied volatility rose 3.17 volatility points to 34.53% between October 17 and October 18 at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. Bitcoin's 1W ATM implied volatility had stood at 31.36% at the opening cutoff. This was the largest standard-tenor ATM IV move. The stronger front-end increase narrowed the gap between weekly and monthly implied volatility while leaving the curve positively sloped.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-18", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w ATM implied volatility rises 3.17 points", "summary": "Bitcoin's 1W ATM implied volatility reached 34.53% at the October 18 cutoff, up 3.17 volatility points from 31.36% at the October 17 cutoff—the largest standard-tenor ATM IV change. Bitcoin's 1M ATM IV rose 1.01 volatility points to 36.77%. Bitcoin's 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope fell from +4.40 to +2.24 volatility points against the prior daily cutoff, flattening the curve while remaining positive.\n\nIn underlying-market news, [Decrypt reported](https://decrypt.co/381246/bitcoin-etfs-shed-nearly-1-billion-two-weeks-uptober-red) Bitcoin ETF net outflows of $228.6 million for the week, following $681.1 million in the preceding week. The provisional, single-source report describes successive weekly flows, rather than flows over the daily options window. It provides context without establishing a causal link to the 1W implied-volatility move.", "macro": { "summary": "No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.", "events": [] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.", "events": [ { "eventId": "16be05e3-4bd2-4fc2-af36-e46dc75bfc9a", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs Shed Nearly $1 Billion in Two Weeks as Uptober Stays Red", "publisher": "Decrypt", "url": "https://decrypt.co/381246/bitcoin-etfs-shed-nearly-1-billion-two-weeks-uptober-red", "publishedAt": "2026-10-18T15:01:04+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 1w ATM implied volatility rises 3.17 points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin's 1W ATM implied volatility rose 3.17 volatility points to 34.53% between October 17 and October 18 at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. Bitcoin's 1W ATM implied volatility had stood at 31.36% at the opening cutoff. This was the largest standard-tenor ATM IV move. The stronger front-end increase narrowed the gap between weekly and monthly implied volatility while leaving the curve positively sloped.", "leadChart": { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "atmIv", "eventType": "atmIv", "label": "1W", "current": 34.53, "previous": 31.36, "change": 3.17, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "btc-largestAtmMove", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "eventRef": "events[type=atmIv,label=1W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv" }, "event": { "type": "atmIv", "title": "Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move", "label": "1W", "value": 3.17 } }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "BTC", "sessionDate": "2026-10-16", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-16T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session retrieved as of 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00; all reported metric observation timestamps are 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 10.94 points, at the 5.8 percentile across 257 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.34 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 10.94 points, at the 5.8 percentile across 257 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.34 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 36.19, "vix": 19.989999771118164, "vix9d": 20.1200008392334, "vix3m": 20.5, "ivSpread": 16.200000228881834, "ivRatio": 1.8104052233301084, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 21.39707521556076, "spxRealisedVol20": 10.453348661399076, "rvSpread": 10.943726554161685, "rvRatio": 2.0469110816683482, "rvSpreadPercentile": 5.836575875486381, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 257, "rvRatioPercentile": 7.782101167315175, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 257, "returnCorrelation30": 0.5757910709561337, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.3430418814938751, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1. Crypto snapshot and benchmark timestamps: 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z; ingestion: 2026-10-16T22:30:50.861284Z. Quality valid; freshness fresh, age 160260 seconds evaluated at 2026-10-18T16:31:00Z; alignment tolerance 600 seconds. IV is a 30-calendar-day fixed tenor nearest the US close, ACT/365 convention. Volatility levels and spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252). Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Sources: Derivasys surface/canonical crypto index and Yahoo Finance ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M, ^GSPC. Other returned cross-asset readings: ivSpreadChange1d=-3.9900006866455087 volatility_points; ivRatioChange1d=-0.4162048640649352 ratio_change; rvSpreadChange1d=-0.5696639798204863 volatility_points; rvRatioChange1d=-0.15102434983895074 ratio_change; ivSpreadPercentile=null and ivRatioPercentile=null, each sampleCount=33; returnCorrelation30Percentile=61.30434782608695, sampleCount=230; returnCorrelation60Percentile=9.411764705882353, sampleCount=170. Level/change metric sampleCount values are null." }, "btcVolContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "type": "btc_volatility_context_latest", "asset": "BTC", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "status": "available", "ds30": { "value": 42.69831369937705, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "observedAt": null, "ingestedAt": null, "freshness": { "status": "fresh", "ageSeconds": 0.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 120.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": null, "rejectionReasons": [] }, "availability": null, "methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices", "comparisonEligible": true }, "bviv": { "value": 40.671362366205, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-18T16:29:56+00:00", "observedAt": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-18T16:30:00.565000+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "fresh", "ageSeconds": 64.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 90.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": 15.0, "rejectionReasons": [] }, "availability": "streaming", "methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel", "comparisonEligible": true }, "bvivMinusDs30": { "value": -2.0269513331720503, "units": "volatility_points", "status": "available", "methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff" } }, "editorialContext": { "version": 2, "status": "active", "scope": "daily options-surface movements", "statement": null, "chosenStoryId": "btc-largestAtmMove", "preferredLeadId": null, "eligibilityTests": { "dailySingleAsset": true, "completeNativeDailySurface": true, "allSurfaceHistoryEligible": true, "noExceptionalSupportedSurfaceEvent": false, "supportedAtmLeadAvailable": true, "chosenAtmLead": true }, "nativeObservations": [ { "id": "btc-largestAtmMove", "tenor": "1W", "metric": "atmIv", "current": 34.53, "previous": 31.36, "change": 3.17 }, { "id": "btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "tenor": "1M minus 1W", "metric": "termStructureDivergence", "current": 2.24, "previous": 4.4, "change": -2.16 }, { "id": "btc-largestBf25Move", "tenor": "6M", "metric": "bf25", "current": 2.06, "previous": 2.22, "change": -0.16 }, { "id": "btc-largestRr25Move", "tenor": "2W", "metric": "rr25", "current": -3.75, "previous": -4.2, "change": 0.45 } ], "strongCandidateIds": [ "btc-largestAtmMove", "btc-largestBf25Move" ], "supportingContext": [ { "id": "btc-spot-24h", "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 8.5, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "faeac3ac8a760a62ca6b5536bad7e51d48318b043b64fba44602706e21231e1f" } }, { "id": "btc-implied-realised-7d", "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" } }, { "id": "btc-smile-rotation", "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" } } ], "policy": { "version": 2, "routinePercentileUpperExclusive": 80, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "basis": "Operational routine threshold; not calibrated market materiality or a trading recommendation" }, "sourceSha256": "02425565a3a0265a299ed38d12198f705f2db1978681320b674d8c2408388177", "sourceCanonicalJson": "{\"candidates\":[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"change\":3.17,\"current\":34.53,\"expiry\":null,\"headlinePolicyVersion\":2,\"historicalContext\":{\"basis\":\"absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days\",\"minimumObservations\":20,\"observationKind\":\"change\",\"observations\":23,\"percentile\":87.0,\"provenance\":{\"observationHorizonDays\":1,\"periodsOverlap\":false,\"sampleCount\":23,\"sampleWindow\":{\"endDate\":\"2026-10-17\",\"endSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\",\"startDate\":\"2026-09-17\",\"startSnapshotAt\":\"2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"samplingCadence\":\"daily UTC 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3.17\",\"tenor\":\"1W\"},{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"change\":-2.16,\"current\":2.24,\"evidence\":{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"change\":-2.16,\"crossing\":null,\"current\":2.24,\"currentRegime\":\"upward-sloping\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\",\"currentSourceCanonicalJson\":\"[{\\\"asset\\\":\\\"BTC\\\",\\\"report\\\":{\\\"cadence\\\":\\\"daily\\\",\\\"currency\\\":\\\"BTC\\\",\\\"currentSnapshotAt\\\":\\\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\\\",\\\"previousSnapshotAt\\\":\\\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\\\",\\\"reportDate\\\":\\\"2026-10-18\\\",\\\"sourceSnapshots\\\":{\\\"current\\\":{\\\"id\\\":698301,\\\"timestamp\\\":\\\"2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00\\\"},\\\"previous\\\":{\\\"id\\\":688233,\\\"timestamp\\\":\\\"2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00\\\"}},\\\"tenors\\\":[{\\\"atmIv\\\":{\\\"change\\\":3.17,\\\"current\\\":34.53,\\\"percentChange\\\":10.11,\\\"previous\\\":31.36},\\\"availability\\\":\\\"available\\\",\\\"tenor\\\":\\\"1W\\\",\\\"unavailableReason\\\":null},{\\\"atmIv\\\":{\\\"change\\\":1.01,\\\"current\\\":36.77,\\\"percentChange\\\":2.82,\\\"previous\\\":35.76},\\\"availability\\\":\\\"available\\\",\\\"tenor\\\":\\\"1M\\\",\\\"unavailableReason\\\":null}],\\\"windowHours\\\":24.0}}]\",\"currentSourceSha256\":\"56bebce25a918bd7b8d9199ebfea4b810c9ac67dc7b85424a4b765f88ef56bf2\",\"direction\":\"lower\",\"historicalContext\":{\"basis\":\"absolute 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own slope history only" }, "selectionScore": 21.444, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID", "headlinePolicyVersion": 2 }, { "id": "btc-largestBf25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "6M", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -0.16, "current": 2.06, "previous": 2.22, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 100.0, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 2.5758, "score": 14.3613, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 100.0, "observations": 23, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 23, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-17", "endDate": "2026-10-17", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:c1ce094fb811ee454bc959833314138cc0937a0af3d8159586a1acd41740edec" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.32, "magnitudeScore": 0.64, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.32, "historicalBonus": 13.7213, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 14.3613, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 100.0, "tailDistance": 50.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; 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validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.9 }, "story": "BTC 2W RR25 moved higher by 0.45", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.9, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID", "headlinePolicyVersion": 2 }, { "id": "btc-spot-24h", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -0.15, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 8.5, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -1.3722, "score": 0.15, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; 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