{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "generatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:32:13+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 668212, "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 658134, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "BTC", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 60, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 0.52, "rv24hPercent": 51.15, "rv7dPercent": 33.44, "rv30dPercent": 34.87, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "7875715434d6844e0f57dee5ebb96fd8858f3c8474798019db9f6af7b71ff8b7", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 63265.6, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 64033.5, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 64639.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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"suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "ATM volatility diverged across the front end over the same daily comparison: 1W ATM IV fell 0.81 volatility points to 33.30%, while 1M ATM IV rose 0.80 volatility points to 36.94%. Across 1W, 2W and 1M, average ATM IV slipped just 0.05 volatility points to 34.90%.\n\nAt the cutoff, 1W ATM IV stood 0.14 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 33.44%. Realised volatility measured 51.15% over 24 hours and 34.87% over 30 days; compatible historical comparisons for these readings are unavailable. Bitcoin's exact spot-index return was +0.52% over 24 hours.", "evidenceIds": [ "rr25", "front-atm", "btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "largest-standard-tenor", "spot-index-24h", "realised-vol" ], "newsSummary": "In separate news context, Cointelegraph reported an [intraday Bitcoin decline alongside the US PPI release](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-breaks-under-80k-after-us-ppi-gains-most-in-over-4-years) and [Bitcoin ETF outflows alongside a differing XRP fund trend](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k). CoinDesk reported a [Bitcoin mining-pool shutdown following a hashrate decline](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/15/bitcoin-mining-pool-once-handling-2-3-of-network-shuts-after-hashrate-falls-65). Each account is provisional, single-source reporting; none establishes a cause of the measured options changes.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 33.30%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 33.44%; 24-hour realised volatility was 51.15% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.87%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 34.90% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to 38.43% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.52 volatility points to -2.71% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.32% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.81 volatility points at 1W, to 33.30%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": -0.81 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was +0.52% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was +1.12% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +2.03 to +3.64 volatility points (+1.61 points). The slope did not cross zero." } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "completedScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "BTC" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 24, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "a06d937dde2984742887acd6cab3cb0c6c33b72c3ae2fc22b9daed40b5f339ef" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": 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"7a40a58c-e32c-4359-b39a-3b6ad4ce30b1", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "1b998b42-c01d-446b-a41d-c265c2c14425", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "bec6c985-5c27-46cd-9b63-ca15a33d2d6e", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "f5703626-236f-4e65-995f-78ecddc05b81", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "2f6cb05f-ec50-40c1-a00b-d9f99be87b89", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": false, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "7936dc64-65fa-4afc-91d7-c94bf150dc51", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "89bbdcf6-a3d4-4514-9903-fecfa193f612", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "be847751-6da3-4d15-8855-f530bf9e0020", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "c5b251e3-d513-4049-bc2d-ae0437dfb12a", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "685ace2d-4c98-4cdf-9f9b-0ddbfff7ef68", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" } ], "planRationale": "Bitcoin's 18OCT26 options smile rotation rose 6.89 volatility points against the prior daily cutoff, according to Derivasys data. The shift across strikes accompanied a 0.81-point rise in 1W RR25 to -3.45 volatility points, leaving put implied volatility above call implied volatility. Matching history for the expiry-specific rotation is unavailable, preventing a rarity assessment.", "eventsSelected": 3 }, "items": [ { "id": "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Bitcoin mining pool once handling 2.3% of network shuts after hashrate falls 65%", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/15/bitcoin-mining-pool-once-handling-2-3-of-network-shuts-after-hashrate-falls-65", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T04:13:56+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC context: CoinDesk reports a mining-pool shutdown following a hashrate decline. Provisional single-source reporting with no clear link to the selected smile rotation.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-5f1dbba2ab8d" }, { "id": "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Bitcoin slips under $80K after US PPI gains most in four years", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-breaks-under-80k-after-us-ppi-gains-most-in-over-4-years", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:10:44+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC context: attribute the intraday Bitcoin/PPI account to Cointelegraph as provisional single-source reporting. Do not adopt its causal wording or substitute its intraday price for the exact report cutoff.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "September US", "US PPI" ], "topics": [ "macro", "macro_release" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 38, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 38.3, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.534, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.104, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.104, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "macro", "relevance": "macro", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-019b571bc801" }, { "id": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trend", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T07:23:43+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC and majors context: Cointelegraph reports Bitcoin ETF outflows alongside a different XRP fund trend. Provisional single-source reporting; ETF-flow context, not options evidence.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "Bitcoin ETFs", "XRP" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-ac958c57e5e3" } ], "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-5f1dbba2ab8d", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Bitcoin mining pool once handling 2.3% of network shuts after hashrate falls 65%", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/15/bitcoin-mining-pool-once-handling-2-3-of-network-shuts-after-hashrate-falls-65", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T04:13:56+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC context: CoinDesk reports a mining-pool shutdown following a hashrate decline. Provisional single-source reporting with no clear link to the selected smile rotation.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-5f1dbba2ab8d" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-019b571bc801", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "macro", "relevance": "macro", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Bitcoin slips under $80K after US PPI gains most in four years", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-breaks-under-80k-after-us-ppi-gains-most-in-over-4-years", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:10:44+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC context: attribute the intraday Bitcoin/PPI account to Cointelegraph as provisional single-source reporting. Do not adopt its causal wording or substitute its intraday price for the exact report cutoff.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "September US", "US PPI" ], "topics": [ "macro", "macro_release" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 38, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 38.3, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.534, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.104, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.104, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "macro", "relevance": "macro", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-019b571bc801" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-ac958c57e5e3", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trend", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T07:23:43+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC and majors context: Cointelegraph reports Bitcoin ETF outflows alongside a different XRP fund trend. Provisional single-source reporting; ETF-flow context, not options evidence.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "Bitcoin ETFs", "XRP" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-ac958c57e5e3" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst", "highest_causal_confidence": "low", "section_heading": "Relevant market events", "events": [ { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-5f1dbba2ab8d", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b", "sourceId": "coindesk", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "title": "Bitcoin mining pool once handling 2.3% of network shuts after hashrate falls 65%", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/15/bitcoin-mining-pool-once-handling-2-3-of-network-shuts-after-hashrate-falls-65", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T04:13:56+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC context: CoinDesk reports a mining-pool shutdown following a hashrate decline. Provisional single-source reporting with no clear link to the selected smile rotation.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin" ], "topics": [ "market", "other" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-5f1dbba2ab8d" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-019b571bc801", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "macro", "relevance": "macro", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Bitcoin slips under $80K after US PPI gains most in four years", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-breaks-under-80k-after-us-ppi-gains-most-in-over-4-years", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:10:44+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC context: attribute the intraday Bitcoin/PPI account to Cointelegraph as provisional single-source reporting. Do not adopt its causal wording or substitute its intraday price for the exact report cutoff.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "September US", "US PPI" ], "topics": [ "macro", "macro_release" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 38, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 38.3, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.534, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.104, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.104, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "macro", "relevance": "macro", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-019b571bc801" }, "additional_coverage": [] }, { "event_cluster_id": "market-event-ac958c57e5e3", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "primary_article": { "id": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "sourceId": "cointelegraph", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trend", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T07:23:43+00:00", "summary": "Selected BTC and majors context: Cointelegraph reports Bitcoin ETF outflows alongside a different XRP fund trend. Provisional single-source reporting; ETF-flow context, not options evidence.", "matchedTerms": [ "BTC", "Bitcoin", "Bitcoin ETFs", "XRP" ], "topics": [ "institutional", "etf_flow" ], "sourceKind": "media", "rightsStatus": "link-and-summary", "selectionScore": 35, "quality": { "eligible": true, "score": 34.8, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "sourceCount": 1, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "signals": { "confidence": 0.53, "importance": 0.39, "novelty": 1.0, "corroboration": 0.0, "sourceQuality": 0.6125, "effectiveSourceQuality": 0.6125, "catalystScore": 0.076, "effectiveCatalystScore": 0.076, "contentKind": "reporting", "status": "developing" }, "thresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "policy": "source-backed-context-v1", "role": "context", "attributionRequired": true }, "relevanceReasons": [ "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship." ], "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "canonicalEventId": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "status": "selected", "eventCategory": "unknown", "relevance": "broader crypto", "relationship": "neutral", "causal_confidence": "low", "matched_signals": [ "Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD" ], "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.", "event_cluster_id": "market-event-ac958c57e5e3" }, "additional_coverage": [] } ], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search" }, "marketRead": { "text": "1W ATM IV fell 0.81 volatility points to 33.30%, a routine move at the 39th percentile among 23 comparable historical observations. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 51.15% over 24 hours, 33.44% over seven days and 34.87% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.90%, -0.05 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.43%, +0.04 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.81 volatility points toward calls to -3.45%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.27 volatility points to 2.17%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.52%; nearest eligible forward 18OCT26: +0.47% to $82,097.61. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 106, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 33.30%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 33.44%; 24-hour realised volatility was 51.15% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.87%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 34.90% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to 38.43% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.52 volatility points to -2.71% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.32% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.81 volatility points at 1W, to 33.30%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": -0.81 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was +0.52% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was +1.12% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": -0.01, "rr25Change": 0.52, "bf25Change": 0.02, "largestAtmMove": { "tenor": "1W", "current": 33.3, "previous": 34.11, "change": -0.81, "historicalSignificance": { "absoluteMove": 0.81, "currentLevel": 33.3, "movePercentile30d": 39.1, "movePercentileFullHistory": 33.3, "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 48.8, "classificationPercentile": 39.1, "label": "routine", "observations30d": 23, "observationsFullHistory": 39, "levelObservationsFullHistory": 43, "provenance": { "schemaVersion": 2, "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "eligibilityPolicy": "known native timestamps; end <= current start; matching UTC endpoint clocks and supported horizon", "sourceEndpoints": [ { "date": "2026-08-29", "snapshotAt": 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:95a841584648f5da15fd7f7b2e38d4cd672b3ba5d54284c52725be238064bb24\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.11,\"current\":34.11,\"percentChange\":6.59,\"previous\":32.0},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.7,\"current\":36.14,\"percentChange\":1.98,\"previous\":35.44},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +2.03 to +3.64 volatility points (+1.61 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-15\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":668212,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":658134,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.81,\"current\":33.3,\"percentChange\":-2.37,\"previous\":34.11},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.8,\"current\":36.94,\"percentChange\":2.21,\"previous\":36.14},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "106c4d50ba474b61b64c7f32d1c7e2444d6ea539525c9fc7fc831b5bd8c74445", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:43:23+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin's 18OCT26 options smile rotation rose 6.89 volatility points against the prior daily cutoff, according to Derivasys data. The shift across strikes accompanied a 0.81-point rise in 1W RR25 to -3.45 volatility points, leaving put implied volatility above call implied volatility. Matching history for the expiry-specific rotation is unavailable, preventing a rarity assessment.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points", "summary": "Bitcoin's 18OCT26 smile rotation increased 6.89 volatility points between October 14 and October 15 at 16:31 UTC; endpoint rotation levels are unavailable. Supporting the callward adjustment, 1W call-minus-put RR25 increased from -4.26 to -3.45 volatility points. That 0.81-point daily move ranked at the 56.4 percentile among 39 matching daily moves over August 29–October 14. Bitcoin 1W BF25 rose 0.27 volatility points to 2.17 volatility points.\n\nIn separate news context, Cointelegraph reported an [intraday Bitcoin decline alongside the US PPI release](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-breaks-under-80k-after-us-ppi-gains-most-in-over-4-years) and [Bitcoin ETF outflows alongside a differing XRP fund trend](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k). CoinDesk reported a [Bitcoin mining-pool shutdown following a hashrate decline](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/15/bitcoin-mining-pool-once-handling-2-3-of-network-shuts-after-hashrate-falls-65). Each account is provisional, single-source reporting; none establishes a cause of the measured options changes.", "macro": { "summary": "Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.", "events": [ { "eventId": "874e009d-07e7-4f9a-a86c-53d957e9b989", "title": "Bitcoin slips under $80K after US PPI gains most in four years", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-breaks-under-80k-after-us-ppi-gains-most-in-over-4-years", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T15:10:44+00:00" } ] }, "crypto": { "summary": "Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.", "events": [ { "eventId": "ec254fba-3e6b-499b-aa20-221216cc6108", "title": "Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trend", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T07:23:43+00:00" }, { "eventId": "588da948-d4b6-4334-8c7f-c46b288a9e1b", "title": "Bitcoin mining pool once handling 2.3% of network shuts after hashrate falls 65%", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/15/bitcoin-mining-pool-once-handling-2-3-of-network-shuts-after-hashrate-falls-65", "publishedAt": "2026-10-15T04:13:56+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin's 18OCT26 options smile rotation rose 6.89 volatility points against the prior daily cutoff, according to Derivasys data. The shift across strikes accompanied a 0.81-point rise in 1W RR25 to -3.45 volatility points, leaving put implied volatility above call implied volatility. Matching history for the expiry-specific rotation is unavailable, preventing a rarity assessment.", "leadChart": { "status": "unavailable", "reason": "A chart is unavailable for the leading observation" }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "BTC", "sessionDate": "2026-10-14", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-14T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session requested as of 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00. Crypto and benchmark observations are timestamped 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z; these are separate from the report's 16:31 UTC options cutoff. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 10.64 points, at the 5.1 percentile across 255 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.35 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 10.64 points, at the 5.1 percentile across 255 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.35 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 36.42, "vix": 16.8700008392334, "vix9d": 14.59000015258789, "vix3m": 18.790000915527344, "ivSpread": 19.549999160766603, "ivRatio": 2.1588617776058743, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 20.933961653070803, "spxRealisedVol20": 10.29795811370241, "rvSpread": 10.636003539368392, "rvRatio": 2.0328264518007875, "rvSpreadPercentile": 5.098039215686274, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 255, "rvRatioPercentile": 7.450980392156863, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 255, "returnCorrelation30": 0.6226851634116373, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.3523448496891434, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1. Derivasys fixed 30-calendar-day ATM IV uses ACT/365; crypto 20-calendar-day close-to-close RV uses sqrt(365), SPX 20-US-session RV uses sqrt(252). Mixed annualisation is preserved. Return correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Provider Derivasys+yahoo_finance; sources Derivasys canonical index/surface, ^GSPC, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M. Ingested 2026-10-14T22:30:50.455123Z. Returned freshness fresh, ageSeconds 73860, evaluatedAt 2026-10-15T16:31:00Z; quality valid. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with sampleCount 31. All metric observation timestamps are 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z." }, "btcVolContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "type": "btc_volatility_context_latest", "asset": "BTC", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "status": "partial", "ds30": { "value": 47.18711758536335, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "observedAt": null, "ingestedAt": null, "freshness": { "status": "fresh", "ageSeconds": 0.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 120.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": null, "rejectionReasons": [] }, "availability": null, "methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices", "comparisonEligible": true }, "bviv": { "value": 41.139486195247, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-15T16:29:28+00:00", "observedAt": "2026-10-15T16:30:00+00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-15T16:30:00.156000+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "stale", "ageSeconds": 92.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 90.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": 15.0, "rejectionReasons": [ "reference_stale", "age_exceeded" ] }, "availability": "streaming", "methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel", "comparisonEligible": false }, "bvivMinusDs30": { "value": null, "units": "volatility_points", "status": "unavailable", "methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff" } }, "materialCandidates": [ { "id": "btc-smile-rotation", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "smileRotation", "metricLabel": "smile rotation", "tenor": null, "expiry": "18OCT26", "observationKind": "change", "change": 6.885, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 13.77, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 6.885, "magnitudeScore": 13.77, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 13.77, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 13.77 }, "story": "BTC 18OCT26 smile rotation moved higher by 6.88", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 13.77, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-largestBf25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.27, "current": 2.17, "previous": 1.9, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 74.4, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.6557, "score": 10.756, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 74.4, "observations": 39, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 39, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-29", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:336078a8aeba6eca279f5b0c7ec1be9bff950e319b00863620d4070c3e67b40f" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.54, "magnitudeScore": 1.08, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.54, "historicalBonus": 9.676, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 10.756, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 74.4, "tailDistance": 24.4, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 10.756 }, "story": "BTC 1W BF25 moved higher by 0.27", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 10.756, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-largestRr25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.81, "current": -3.45, "previous": -4.26, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 56.4, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.1611, "score": 5.3829, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 56.4, "observations": 39, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 39, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-29", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:f9255a60b9b82981739be79639115f04ea0b3a561c1d0422b6eba1ee4eeb8a0f" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.81, "magnitudeScore": 1.62, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.81, "historicalBonus": 3.7629, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 5.3829, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 56.4, "tailDistance": 6.4, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 5.3829 }, "story": "BTC 1W RR25 moved higher by 0.81", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 5.3829, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-largestAtmMove", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "atmIv", "metricLabel": "ATM IV", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -0.81, "current": 33.3, "previous": 34.11, "relativeChangePercent": -2.3747, "historicalPercentile": 39.1, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.2767, "score": 1.62, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 39.1, "observations": 23, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 23, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-14", "endDate": "2026-10-14", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:9f6a4346b244d8a5e590435770184746949afe3e103d3b3f418e72c329beb4d7" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.81, "magnitudeScore": 1.62, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.81, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.62, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 39.1, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 1.62 }, "story": "BTC 1W ATM IV moved lower by 0.81", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 1.62, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-spot-24h", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.52, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 32.2, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.4621, "score": 0.52, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 32.2, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-16T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "7875715434d6844e0f57dee5ebb96fd8858f3c8474798019db9f6af7b71ff8b7" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "percent", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.26, "magnitudeScore": 0.52, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.26, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.52, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 32.2, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.52 }, "story": "BTC spot-index return was +0.52% over 24 hours", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "metricWindow": "24h", "spotReturnEvidence": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81606.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 82028.18, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": 0.52, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "7875715434d6844e0f57dee5ebb96fd8858f3c8474798019db9f6af7b71ff8b7" }, "selectionScore": 0.52, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-implied-realised-7d", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "impliedRealised", "metricLabel": "implied-versus-realised spread", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": -0.14, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 0.028, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.014, "magnitudeScore": 0.028, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.014, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.028, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.028 }, "story": "BTC 1W implied-versus-realised spread stood at -0.14", "source": "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.028, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" } ], "reportSignals": { "schemaVersion": 1, "reportKey": "daily:BTC", "cadence": "daily", "reportDate": "2026-10-15", "canonicalReportUrl": "https://www.derivasys.com/reports/2026-10-15/", "comparisonWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "startAtReason": null, "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": null, "basis": "stored surface snapshots; per-asset actual timestamps are in provenance.snapshots", "targetDuration": "24h" }, "leadSignal": { "id": "btc-smile-rotation", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "smileRotation", "metricLabel": "smile rotation", "tenor": null, "expiry": "18OCT26", "scope": "single-asset", "observationKind": "change", "current": null, "previous": null, "change": 6.885, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 6.885, "magnitudeScore": 13.77, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 13.77, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 13.77 }, "selectionAuditVersion": 1, "unit": "volatility points", "fieldUnits": { "current": "volatility points", "previous": "volatility points", "change": "volatility points", "relativeChangePercent": "percent", "historicalPercentile": "percentile", "historicalLevelPercentile": "percentile", "historicalZScore": "standard-normal quantile of empirical percentile" }, "basis": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "selectionMethod": "final-dossier-chosen-story-id", "metricWindow": "report-comparison-window" }, "leadSignalReason": null, "levelDispersion": null, "changeDispersion": null, "rankings": null, "crossAssetReason": "not-applicable-single-asset-report", "percentiles": { "unit": "percentile", "crossAsset": null, "crossAssetReason": "not-applicable-single-asset-report", "selectedLead": { "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "basis": "exact frozen material candidate; source-specific history and classification", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "reason": "source-history-unavailable" }, "selectedLeadReason": null }, "dataQuality": { "status": "partial", "basis": "availability of published surface, realised-volatility and cross-asset metrics; excludes news quality", "nullPolicy": "unavailable observations stay null; no extrapolation or substituted baselines", "assets": [ { "asset": "BTC", "comparisonStatus": null, "comparisonNote": null, "coverage": { "currentListedExpiries": 12, "previousListedExpiries": 11, "comparedListedExpiries": 10, "addedExpiries": [ "19OCT26", "6NOV26" ], "removedExpiries": [ "15OCT26" ], "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "currentListedExpiries": null, "comparedListedExpiries": null, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "2W", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "1M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "3M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "6M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "9M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "1Y", "status": "unavailable", "availableMetrics": [], "sourceAvailability": "unavailable", "reason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed." } ], "realisedVolatilityCoverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "realisedVolatilityReason": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null, "realisedVolatilityCoveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null } ] }, "provenance": { "calculationSource": "existing verified report metrics and frozen material candidates", "snapshots": [ { "asset": "BTC", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 668212, "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 658134, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00" } }, "currentSnapshotId": null, "previousSnapshotId": null } ], "methodologySource": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases", "crossAssetAnalysisSchemaVersion": null }, "spotReturns": { "BTC": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "7875715434d6844e0f57dee5ebb96fd8858f3c8474798019db9f6af7b71ff8b7", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 63265.6, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-17T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 64033.5, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-18T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 64639.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-19T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 68785.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-20T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 72252.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", 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extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null } } ], "realisedVolatility": { "spotMove24hPercent": 0.52, "spotMove7dPercent": 1.12, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "windows": { "24h": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 81606.7, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "price": 82028.18, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": 0.52, "unavailableReason": null } } } } } } ], "lead": { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "smileRotation", "tenor": null } }, "currentProjectionSha256": "9281c67ab655fb8c2e82ea300bbe5cdf0d155fa158447346619e566b67b29e99", "prior": null }, "opening": { "status": "complete", "reason": null, "basis": "one-week-context", "tenor": "1W", "movements": [ { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "spot", "tenor": null, "previous": 81606.7, "current": 82028.18, "change": 0.52, "unit": "percent", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].report.realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" ] }, { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1W", "previous": 34.11, "current": 33.3, "change": -0.81, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change" ] }, { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "rr25", "tenor": "1W", "previous": -4.26, "current": -3.45, "change": 0.81, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.previous", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.current", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.change" ] }, { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "bf25", "tenor": "1W", "previous": 1.9, "current": 2.17, "change": 0.27, "unit": "volatility points", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change" ] } ] }, "followThrough": { "status": "unavailable", "reason": "verified-adjacent-published-edition-unavailable", "priorReportDate": null, "comparisons": [], "breadthChanges": [], "recordedWatchStatus": "unavailable", "recordedWatchReason": "recorded-watch-unavailable", "watchEvaluations": [] }, "watchlist": [ { "id": "BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1W", "unit": "percent", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change" ], "currentBaseline": 33.3, "threshold": 33.3, "comparator": "lte", "thresholdPolicy": "observed-current-level", "basis": "continuation-at-observed-level", "nextAlignedCutoff": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "evaluationWindow": { "start": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00" } }, { "id": "BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "atmIv", "tenor": "1W", "unit": "percent", "sourceRefs": [ "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current", "rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change" ], "currentBaseline": 33.3, "threshold": 34.11, "comparator": "gte", "thresholdPolicy": "observed-previous-level", "basis": "full-retrace-to-observed-level", "nextAlignedCutoff": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00", "evaluationWindow": { "start": "2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00" } } ] } }