{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "generatedAt": "2026-10-14T16:31:48+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 658127, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 648113, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "BTC", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 97, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -2.16, "rv24hPercent": 38.06, "rv7dPercent": 30.99, "rv30dPercent": 34.18, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "a4c09a5a83ad4a76e00ba2037cf66c2c3a28f12fdab22ee7a10204687fda5a22", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-15T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 63046.9, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 63303.5, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-17T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 64052.9, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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"startAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 83475.59, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 81674.24, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": -2.16, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "a4c09a5a83ad4a76e00ba2037cf66c2c3a28f12fdab22ee7a10204687fda5a22", "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past 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gain relative to ATM as 2w BF25 increases 0.55 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "Bitcoin 1W ATM IV rose 2.19 volatility points to 34.11%, while ATM IV across 1W, 2W and 1M increased by an average 1.65 volatility points to 34.96% over the same daily comparison. Bitcoin 1W RR25 fell 1.18 volatility points from -3.08 to -4.26 volatility points, indicating a further shift toward put-side volatility relative to calls.\n\nBitcoin’s spot index returned -2.16% over 24 hours. At the cutoff, 1W ATM implied volatility of 34.11% exceeded seven-day realised volatility of 30.99% by 3.12 volatility points. That gap alone does not establish whether options are cheap or expensive. Fixed-tenor 1Y observations remain unavailable.", "evidenceIds": [ "bf25", "front-atm", "realised-vol", "spot-index-24h", "largest-standard-tenor" ], "newsSummary": "[CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/14/u-s-september-cpi-comes-in-hot-sending-bitcoin-sharply-lower) associated hotter September US CPI with Bitcoin’s decline. Separately, [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/standard-chartered-launches-bitcoin-and-ether-trading-for-affluent-uae-clients) reported Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin and Ether trading launch for affluent UAE clients, with external crypto transfers barred. Its [Babylon report](https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/babylon-advances-native-bitcoin-collateral-plan-for-aave-v4) described a proposed Aave V4 arrangement retaining collateral on Bitcoin and using WBTC for permissionless liquidations; risk settings and further governance votes remain pending. These developing reports provide context without establishing a cause for the options changes; Babylon remains provisional single-source reporting.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "7c88bd9a-48d9-4ced-92e5-b27e67d39d30", "22dafa61-8f82-45cb-a907-ccced3a0506c", "7c33aa1d-b313-4cbc-9505-3841f2ea60f9" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 34.11%, 3.12 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 30.99%; 24-hour realised volatility was 38.06% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.18%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.65 volatility points to 34.96% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.08 volatility points to 38.39% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.73 volatility points to -3.24% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 increased, averaging +0.27 volatility points to 2.30% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.19 volatility points at 1W, to 34.11%.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 2.19 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -2.16% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -2.25% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" }, { "id": "btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change", "label": "1M-minus-1W ATM IV regime", "text": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.45 to +2.03 volatility points (-1.42 points). The slope did not cross zero." } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "completedScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "BTC" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 29, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "5603c113e9e873d8380d7375e2f79d068be873d9ccc39763cd1adaa7c0bd469b" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": 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At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 38.06% over 24 hours, 30.99% over seven days and 34.18% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.96%, +1.65 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.39%, +0.08 points. 1W RR25 moved 1.18 volatility points toward puts to -4.26%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 rose 0.55 volatility points to 2.27%. 24-hour spot-index: -2.16%; nearest eligible forward 17OCT26: -2.17% to $81,694.70. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 106, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 34.11%, 3.12 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 30.99%; 24-hour realised volatility was 38.06% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.18%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:ff2d0a2e4984388950599fc7618d1396ff85e9c9b6c520674d82c00d345e49a0\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.31,\"current\":31.92,\"percentChange\":-0.96,\"previous\":32.23},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.31,\"current\":35.37,\"percentChange\":-0.87,\"previous\":35.68},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.45 to +2.03 volatility points (-1.42 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-14\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":658127,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":648113,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.19,\"current\":34.11,\"percentChange\":6.86,\"previous\":31.92},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.77,\"current\":36.14,\"percentChange\":2.18,\"previous\":35.37},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "c4011a41aa30287af73522351d495bec2d4856916e00b39569da29a4e66dd7cf", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-14T17:00:34+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Bitcoin options: wing premium widens as 2w BF25 rises 0.55 volatility points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin’s 2W BF25 butterfly increased 0.55 volatility points from 1.72 to 2.27 between the October 13 and October 14 16:30 UTC snapshots. The rise widened average 25-delta wing volatility relative to ATM volatility. Higher front-end implied volatility and a further shift in 1W skew toward puts accompanied the curvature adjustment.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "headline": "Bitcoin options: wider wing premium follows a 0.55-volatility-point increase in 2w BF25", "summary": "Bitcoin’s 2W BF25 butterfly rose 0.55 volatility points to 2.27 at the October 14 16:30 UTC cutoff, compared with 1.72 at the October 13 16:30 UTC baseline. The absolute 2W BF25 daily change ranked at the 97.2 percentile among 36 matching daily changes in the August 31–October 13, 2026 history window. This ranking describes the adjustment’s magnitude, rather than the current butterfly level.", "macro": { "summary": "[CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/14/u-s-september-cpi-comes-in-hot-sending-bitcoin-sharply-lower) associated hotter September US CPI with Bitcoin’s decline. Separately, [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/standard-chartered-launches-bitcoin-and-ether-trading-for-affluent-uae-clients) reported Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin and Ether trading launch for affluent UAE clients, with external crypto transfers barred. Its [Babylon report](https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/babylon-advances-native-bitcoin-collateral-plan-for-aave-v4) described a proposed Aave V4 arrangement retaining collateral on Bitcoin and using WBTC for permissionless liquidations; risk settings and further governance votes remain pending. These developing reports provide context without establishing a cause for the options changes; Babylon remains provisional single-source reporting.", "events": [ { "eventId": "7c88bd9a-48d9-4ced-92e5-b27e67d39d30", "title": "U.S. September CPI comes in hot, sending bitcoin sharply lower", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/14/u-s-september-cpi-comes-in-hot-sending-bitcoin-sharply-lower", "publishedAt": "2026-10-14T12:33:56+00:00" } ] }, "crypto": { "summary": "[CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/14/u-s-september-cpi-comes-in-hot-sending-bitcoin-sharply-lower) associated hotter September US CPI with Bitcoin’s decline. Separately, [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/standard-chartered-launches-bitcoin-and-ether-trading-for-affluent-uae-clients) reported Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin and Ether trading launch for affluent UAE clients, with external crypto transfers barred. Its [Babylon report](https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/babylon-advances-native-bitcoin-collateral-plan-for-aave-v4) described a proposed Aave V4 arrangement retaining collateral on Bitcoin and using WBTC for permissionless liquidations; risk settings and further governance votes remain pending. These developing reports provide context without establishing a cause for the options changes; Babylon remains provisional single-source reporting.", "events": [ { "eventId": "22dafa61-8f82-45cb-a907-ccced3a0506c", "title": "Standard Chartered Launches Bitcoin and Ether Trading for Affluent UAE Clients", "publisher": "The Defiant", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/standard-chartered-launches-bitcoin-and-ether-trading-for-affluent-uae-clients", "publishedAt": "2026-10-14T06:12:46+00:00" }, { "eventId": "7c33aa1d-b313-4cbc-9505-3841f2ea60f9", "title": "Babylon Advances Native Bitcoin Collateral Plan for Aave V4", "publisher": "The Defiant", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/babylon-advances-native-bitcoin-collateral-plan-for-aave-v4", "publishedAt": "2026-10-14T14:39:12+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Bitcoin options: wing premium widens as 2w BF25 rises 0.55 volatility points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin’s 2W BF25 butterfly increased 0.55 volatility points from 1.72 to 2.27 between the October 13 and October 14 16:30 UTC snapshots. The rise widened average 25-delta wing volatility relative to ATM volatility. Higher front-end implied volatility and a further shift in 1W skew toward puts accompanied the curvature adjustment.", "leadChart": { "asset": "BTC", "metric": "bf25", "eventType": "bf25", "label": "2W", "current": 2.27, "previous": 1.72, "change": 0.55, "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "evidenceRef": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "provenance": { "kind": "report-event", "candidateId": "btc-largestBf25Move", "candidateSource": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "eventRef": "events[type=bf25,label=2W]", "valuesRef": "tenors[tenor=2W].bf25" }, "event": { "type": "bf25", "title": "Largest standard-tenor BF25 move", "label": "2W", "value": 0.55 } }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "BTC", "sessionDate": "2026-10-13", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-13T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common US session at or before the requested 2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00 cutoff. Crypto and benchmark observations are timestamped 2026-10-13T20:00:00Z. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 10.24 points, at the 4.3 percentile across 254 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.34 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 10.24 points, at the 4.3 percentile across 254 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.34 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 35.76, "vix": 15.270000457763672, "vix9d": 11.989999771118164, "vix3m": 17.959999084472656, "ivSpread": 20.489999542236326, "ivRatio": 2.3418466881458846, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 19.731514050684854, "spxRealisedVol20": 9.48724448475329, "rvSpread": 10.244269565931564, "rvRatio": 2.079793988907408, "rvSpreadPercentile": 4.330708661417323, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 254, "rvRatioPercentile": 8.26771653543307, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 254, "returnCorrelation30": 0.6288911480258043, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.34458057955621996, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1; Derivasys persisted 30-calendar-day fixed-tenor ATM IV near the US close and Yahoo Finance SPX/VIX-family completed-session observations. All displayed metric observation timestamps: 2026-10-13T20:00:00Z; ingestedAt: 2026-10-13T22:30:51.625618Z; freshness evaluatedAt: 2026-10-14T16:30:00Z, fresh, ageSeconds 73800. Volatility levels and differences use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252). Alignment tolerance: 600 seconds. IV spread/ratio percentiles are null, with sampleCount 30. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only." }, "btcVolContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "type": "btc_volatility_context_latest", "asset": "BTC", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "status": "available", "ds30": { "value": 46.495718588361754, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "observedAt": null, "ingestedAt": null, "freshness": { "status": "fresh", "ageSeconds": 0.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 120.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": null, "rejectionReasons": [] }, "availability": null, "methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices", "comparisonEligible": true }, "bviv": { "value": 40.806168303118, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-14T16:28:55+00:00", "observedAt": "2026-10-14T16:29:00+00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-14T16:29:00.303000+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "fresh", "ageSeconds": 65.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 90.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": 15.0, "rejectionReasons": [] }, "availability": "streaming", "methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel", "comparisonEligible": true }, "bvivMinusDs30": { "value": -5.6895502852437545, "units": "volatility_points", "status": "available", "methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff" } }, "materialCandidates": [ { "id": "btc-largestBf25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "2W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.55, "current": 2.27, "previous": 1.72, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 97.2, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.911, "score": 40.075, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 97.2, "observations": 36, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 36, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-31", "endDate": "2026-10-13", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:cba4e1be652fb610b98b5b6243ca0ce6a0a108e6c38b8bbf81807e61988b7003" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.1, "magnitudeScore": 2.2, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 37.875, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 40.075, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 97.2, "tailDistance": 47.2, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 40.075 }, "story": "BTC 2W BF25 moved higher by 0.55", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 40.075, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-largestRr25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -1.18, "current": -4.26, "previous": -3.08, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 78.3, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.7824, "score": 23.252, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 78.3, "observations": 23, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 23, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-13", "endDate": "2026-10-13", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:963adb1d4fd98d360d6acaa1be38ba65907892683033664bbc13e95ba865d090" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.18, "magnitudeScore": 2.36, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 20.892, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 23.252, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 78.3, "tailDistance": 28.3, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 23.252 }, "story": "BTC 1W RR25 moved lower by 1.18", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 23.252, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-spot-24h", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -2.16, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 78.0, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.7722, "score": 22.821, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 78.0, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-15T16:30:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "a4c09a5a83ad4a76e00ba2037cf66c2c3a28f12fdab22ee7a10204687fda5a22" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "percent", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.08, "magnitudeScore": 2.16, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 20.661, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 22.821, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 78.0, "tailDistance": 28.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 22.821 }, "story": "BTC spot-index return was -2.16% over 24 hours", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "metricWindow": "24h", "spotReturnEvidence": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 83475.59, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 81674.24, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": -2.16, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "a4c09a5a83ad4a76e00ba2037cf66c2c3a28f12fdab22ee7a10204687fda5a22" }, "selectionScore": 22.821, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-smile-rotation", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "smileRotation", "metricLabel": "smile rotation", "tenor": null, "expiry": "17OCT26", "observationKind": "change", "change": -7.778, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 15.556, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 7.778, "magnitudeScore": 15.556, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 15.556, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 15.556 }, "story": "BTC 17OCT26 smile rotation moved lower by 7.78", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 15.556, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-largestAtmMove", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "atmIv", "metricLabel": "ATM IV", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 2.19, "current": 34.11, "previous": 31.92, "relativeChangePercent": 6.8609, "historicalPercentile": 60.9, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 0.2767, "score": 12.3035, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": 60.9, "observations": 23, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 23, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-09-13", "endDate": "2026-10-13", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:f3b577e15e2f0349f8b12b0c7fe8c96a9582ca6c0112a08033a74ea78fec7950" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 2.19, "magnitudeScore": 4.38, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 7.9235, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 12.3035, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 60.9, "tailDistance": 10.9, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 12.3035 }, "story": "BTC 1W ATM IV moved higher by 2.19", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 12.3035, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-implied-realised-7d", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "impliedRealised", "metricLabel": "implied-versus-realised spread", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 3.12, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 0.624, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.312, "magnitudeScore": 0.624, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.312, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.624, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.624 }, "story": "BTC 1W implied-versus-realised spread stood at 3.12", "source": "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.624, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" } ], "reportSignals": { "schemaVersion": 1, "reportKey": "daily:BTC", "cadence": "daily", "reportDate": "2026-10-14", "canonicalReportUrl": "https://www.derivasys.com/reports/2026-10-14/", "comparisonWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "startAtReason": null, "endAt": "2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": null, "basis": "stored surface snapshots; per-asset actual timestamps are in provenance.snapshots", "targetDuration": "24h" }, "leadSignal": { "id": "btc-largestBf25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "2W", "expiry": null, "scope": "single-asset", "observationKind": "change", "current": 2.27, "previous": 1.72, "change": 0.55, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 97.2, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": 1.911, "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in stored history", "percentile": 97.2, "observations": 36, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentileFullHistory" ], "unavailableReason": null, "provenance": { "sampleCount": 36, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": "2026-08-31", "endDate": "2026-10-13", "startSnapshotAt": "2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00", "endSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:cba4e1be652fb610b98b5b6243ca0ce6a0a108e6c38b8bbf81807e61988b7003" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 1.1, "magnitudeScore": 2.2, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 37.875, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 40.075, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "upper", "percentile": 97.2, "tailDistance": 47.2, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 40.075 }, "selectionAuditVersion": 1, "unit": "volatility points", "fieldUnits": { "current": "volatility points", "previous": "volatility points", "change": "volatility points", "relativeChangePercent": "percent", "historicalPercentile": "percentile", "historicalLevelPercentile": "percentile", "historicalZScore": "standard-normal quantile of empirical percentile" }, "basis": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "selectionMethod": "final-dossier-chosen-story-id", "metricWindow": "report-comparison-window" }, "leadSignalReason": null, "levelDispersion": null, "changeDispersion": null, "rankings": null, "crossAssetReason": "not-applicable-single-asset-report", "percentiles": { "unit": "percentile", "crossAsset": null, "crossAssetReason": "not-applicable-single-asset-report", "selectedLead": { "historicalPercentile": 97.2, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "basis": "exact frozen material candidate; source-specific history and classification", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "reason": null }, "selectedLeadReason": null }, "dataQuality": { "status": "partial", "basis": "availability of published surface, realised-volatility and cross-asset metrics; excludes news quality", "nullPolicy": "unavailable observations stay null; no extrapolation or substituted baselines", "assets": [ { "asset": "BTC", "comparisonStatus": null, "comparisonNote": null, "coverage": { "currentListedExpiries": 11, "previousListedExpiries": 11, "comparedListedExpiries": 10, "addedExpiries": [ "18OCT26" ], "removedExpiries": [ "14OCT26" ], "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M" ], "suppressedFixedTenors": [ "1Y" ] }, "currentListedExpiries": null, "comparedListedExpiries": null, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "2W", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "1M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "3M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "6M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "9M", "status": "complete", "availableMetrics": [ "atmIv.current", "atmIv.previous", "atmIv.change", "rr25.current", "rr25.previous", "rr25.change", "bf25.current", "bf25.previous", "bf25.change" ], "sourceAvailability": "available", "reason": null }, { "tenor": "1Y", "status": "unavailable", "availableMetrics": [], "sourceAvailability": "unavailable", "reason": "The target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots; extrapolated values are suppressed." } ], "realisedVolatilityCoverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "realisedVolatilityReason": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null, "realisedVolatilityCoveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:ff2d0a2e4984388950599fc7618d1396ff85e9c9b6c520674d82c00d345e49a0\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.31,\"current\":31.92,\"percentChange\":-0.96,\"previous\":32.23},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.31,\"current\":35.37,\"percentChange\":-0.87,\"previous\":35.68},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.45 to +2.03 volatility points (-1.42 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-14\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":658127,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-14T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":648113,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":2.19,\"current\":34.11,\"percentChange\":6.86,\"previous\":31.92},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.77,\"current\":36.14,\"percentChange\":2.18,\"previous\":35.37},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "c4011a41aa30287af73522351d495bec2d4856916e00b39569da29a4e66dd7cf", "materialRegimeChange": false } ] } }