{ "schemaVersion": 3, "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:31:41+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSnapshots": { "current": { "id": 648113, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00" }, "previous": { "id": 638033, "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" } }, "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "BTC", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.", "realisedVolatility": "Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot." }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 97, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 0.83, "rv24hPercent": 37.51, "rv7dPercent": 30.03, "rv30dPercent": 34.06, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 10080, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 43200, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "missingPriceMinutes": 0, "missingIntervals": 0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": null, "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": { "24h": 98.0, "7d": 97.0, "30d": 99.5 }, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "spotReturns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "asset": "BTC", "cutoffAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "sourceSha256": "6c8afcab73e96c754b0c1eac1369bf35211890d0830a0b6b7e664bb52b63687c", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-08-14T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 63068.4, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-15T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 63046.9, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-16T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 63303.5, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "okx", "sourceInstrument": "BTC-USD", "unavailableReason": null }, { "timestamp": 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"startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 82777.22, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 83467.2, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": 0.83, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "6c8afcab73e96c754b0c1eac1369bf35211890d0830a0b6b7e664bb52b63687c", "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past 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smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points", "executiveSummary": "Across fixed tenors, Bitcoin 2W ATM IV decreased 0.68 volatility points from 33.31% to 32.63%. Bitcoin 2W RR25, the call-minus-put implied-volatility measure, fell 0.40 volatility points from -3.48 to -3.88 volatility points. Meanwhile, Bitcoin 1M BF25 butterfly rose 0.17 volatility points from 1.92 to 2.09 volatility points.\n\nAt the cutoff, Bitcoin 1W ATM IV stood at 31.92%, compared with Bitcoin seven-day realised volatility of 30.03%. Bitcoin's 1W implied-minus-seven-day-realised volatility gap was 1.89 volatility points. This difference does not establish whether options are cheap or expensive. The available Bitcoin 6M ATM IV reading increased 0.12 volatility points to 38.31%; Bitcoin 1Y ATM IV is unavailable.", "evidenceIds": [ "rr25", "front-atm", "realised-vol", "largest-standard-tenor", "spot-index-24h", "back-atm", "btc-1m-minus-1w-atm-regime-change" ], "newsSummary": "In provisional single-source reporting, [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/strive-bitcoin-holdings-32773-btc-warrant-exercises) says Strive expanded its Bitcoin treasury through equity financing, while [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/metaplanet-plans-52-billion-bond-sale-to-refinance-bitcoin-loans) reports Metaplanet's proposed bond sale to refinance Bitcoin loans. [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/13/u-k-court-ruling-boosts-government-s-chances-of-keeping-gbp3-8-billion-seized-bitcoin) reports a High Court ruling affecting claims to seized Bitcoin. These developments supply corporate and legal context, with no established causal link to the measured options changes.", "marketContextSummary": "", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [ "26e8a160-a6a3-4e95-bc5b-87592eb71921", "61351397-5c71-42af-8e6a-d59676e9992a", "e1e3f65d-a0b6-40a3-a0c1-e6770438eee0" ], "takeaways": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.92%, 1.89 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 30.03%; 24-hour realised volatility was 37.51% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.06%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.43 volatility points to 33.31% across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.12 volatility points to 38.31% across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to -2.51% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 2.04% across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.68 volatility points at 2W, to 32.63%.", "tenor": "2W", "value": -0.68 }, { "id": "spot-index-24h", "label": "24h spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was +0.83% over 24 hours.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h" }, { "id": "spot-index-7d", "label": "7d spot-index return", "text": "BTC spot-index return was -2.63% over seven days.", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.7d" } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "BTC", "GLOBAL", "MACRO" ], "completedScopes": [ "BTC", 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At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 37.51% over 24 hours, 30.03% over seven days and 34.06% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 33.31%, -0.43 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 38.31%, +0.12 points. 2W RR25 moved 0.40 volatility points toward puts to -3.88%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1M BF25 rose 0.17 volatility points to 2.09%. 24-hour spot-index: +0.83%; nearest eligible forward 16OCT26: +0.86% to $83,514.92. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.", "wordCount": 94, "source": "deterministic structured report facts", "evidenceFields": [ "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv24hPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv7dPercent", "realisedVolatility.rv30dPercent", "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm", "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove", "newsContext.outcome", "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence" ] }, "facts": [ { "id": "realised-vol", "label": "Implied versus realised", "text": "At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.92%, 1.89 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 30.03%; 24-hour realised volatility was 37.51% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.06%." }, { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, 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non-extrapolated; listed expiry bracket on both sides\",\"source\":\"native-fixed-tenor-history\",\"sourceDigest\":\"sha256:ff9c26c8736d4488b103e1d35822a561a04f5b2159fcf02f7b273f47635cad77\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-11T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.25,\"current\":32.23,\"percentChange\":-0.77,\"previous\":32.48},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":0.17,\"current\":35.68,\"percentChange\":0.48,\"previous\":35.51},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24}}]]", "window": { "startAt": "2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceProjection": "immutable consumed identity, timestamp, tenor availability and ATM endpoint fields; no marginal percentile inputs" }, "policy": { "version": 2, "slopeDefinition": "1M ATM IV minus 1W ATM IV", "dailyWindowHours": { "minimum": 23, "maximum": 25 }, "samplingClockToleranceSeconds": 0, "minimumHistoryObservations": 20, "crossingDefinition": "strictly negative to strictly positive, or strictly positive to strictly negative", "zeroHandling": "an exactly zero endpoint is a zero touch, not a genuine sign crossing", "rarityBasis": "absolute slope changes in compatible prior daily observations of this asset and these tenors", "causality": "not assessed", "materialDeadbandVolPoints": 0.5, "materialCrossingDefinition": "both endpoints clear opposite sides of +/-0.5 volatility points; equality included", "materialPolicyStatus": "provisional; not fit-calibrated; not a rarity claim" }, "statement": "BTC 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope changed from +3.45 to +3.45 volatility points (+0.00 points). The slope did not cross zero.", "currentSourceCanonicalJson": "[{\"asset\":\"BTC\",\"report\":{\"cadence\":\"daily\",\"currency\":\"BTC\",\"currentSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\",\"previousSnapshotAt\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\",\"reportDate\":\"2026-10-13\",\"sourceSnapshots\":{\"current\":{\"id\":648113,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00\"},\"previous\":{\"id\":638033,\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00\"}},\"tenors\":[{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.31,\"current\":31.92,\"percentChange\":-0.96,\"previous\":32.23},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1W\",\"unavailableReason\":null},{\"atmIv\":{\"change\":-0.31,\"current\":35.37,\"percentChange\":-0.87,\"previous\":35.68},\"availability\":\"available\",\"tenor\":\"1M\",\"unavailableReason\":null}],\"windowHours\":24.0}}]", "currentSourceSha256": "37e5a4b7a2da9f49d98d926e78f58e049833630960a9ced91cb864138a55939a", "materialRegimeChange": false } ], "marketDiary": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:37:17+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "headline": "Bitcoin options: 16oct26 smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin's 16OCT26 smile rotation fell 5.00 volatility points between the October 12 and October 13 cutoffs at 16:30 UTC, according to Derivasys data. This expiry-specific shape change exceeded the fixed-tenor ATM IV adjustments, led by a 0.68-point fall at 2W. Matching rotation history and its current level are unavailable, so the observation establishes neither historical rarity nor call-versus-put direction.", "days": [ { "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 16oct26 smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points", "summary": "Bitcoin's 16OCT26 smile rotation declined 5.00 volatility points relative to the October 12, 16:30 UTC snapshot. The statistic measures an adjustment in the expiry's volatility-smile shape, with no matching history available to assess rarity. Bitcoin's spot-index return was +0.83% over the matching 24 hours.", "macro": { "summary": "No additional qualifying evidence was identified.", "events": [ { "eventId": "e1e3f65d-a0b6-40a3-a0c1-e6770438eee0", "title": "UK court ruling boosts government’s chances of keeping $5 billion in seized bitcoin", "publisher": "CoinDesk", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/13/u-k-court-ruling-boosts-government-s-chances-of-keeping-gbp3-8-billion-seized-bitcoin", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T09:25:03+00:00" } ] }, "crypto": { "summary": "In provisional single-source reporting, [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/strive-bitcoin-holdings-32773-btc-warrant-exercises) says Strive expanded its Bitcoin treasury through equity financing, while [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/metaplanet-plans-52-billion-bond-sale-to-refinance-bitcoin-loans) reports Metaplanet's proposed bond sale to refinance Bitcoin loans. [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/13/u-k-court-ruling-boosts-government-s-chances-of-keeping-gbp3-8-billion-seized-bitcoin) reports a High Court ruling affecting claims to seized Bitcoin. These developments supply corporate and legal context, with no established causal link to the measured options changes.", "events": [ { "eventId": "26e8a160-a6a3-4e95-bc5b-87592eb71921", "title": "Strive reports $208M in warrant exercises as Bitcoin holdings jump 11%", "publisher": "Cointelegraph", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/strive-bitcoin-holdings-32773-btc-warrant-exercises", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T15:57:55+00:00" }, { "eventId": "61351397-5c71-42af-8e6a-d59676e9992a", "title": "Metaplanet Plans ¥52 Billion Bond Sale to Refinance Bitcoin Loans", "publisher": "The Defiant", "url": "https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/metaplanet-plans-52-billion-bond-sale-to-refinance-bitcoin-loans", "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T10:06:10+00:00" } ] } } ] }, "newsStatus": "context", "headline": "Bitcoin options: 16oct26 smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points", "standfirst": "Bitcoin's 16OCT26 smile rotation fell 5.00 volatility points between the October 12 and October 13 cutoffs at 16:30 UTC, according to Derivasys data. This expiry-specific shape change exceeded the fixed-tenor ATM IV adjustments, led by a 0.68-point fall at 2W. Matching rotation history and its current level are unavailable, so the observation establishes neither historical rarity nor call-versus-put direction.", "leadChart": { "status": "unavailable", "reason": "A chart is unavailable for the leading observation" }, "crossAssetMarketContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "status": "available", "asset": "BTC", "sessionDate": "2026-10-12", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-12T20:00:00+00:00", "summary": "Latest completed common session retrieved as_of 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00. Crypto and benchmark observations are both timestamped 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z; evaluated freshness is fresh, age 73800 seconds. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with 29 prior observations. The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 11.42 points, at the 5.9 percentile across 253 prior observations. The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.34 from 60 aligned observations.", "regimeInsights": [ "The crypto-minus-SPX realised-volatility spread was 11.42 points, at the 5.9 percentile across 253 prior observations.", "The 60-session crypto-SPX return correlation was 0.34 from 60 aligned observations." ], "metrics": { "cryptoAtmIv30d": 35.46, "vix": 15.210000038146973, "vix9d": 11.680000305175781, "vix3m": 17.93000030517578, "ivSpread": 20.249999961853028, "ivRatio": 2.331360940898464, "cryptoRealisedVol20d": 21.120899783569875, "spxRealisedVol20": 9.705175890785151, "rvSpread": 11.415723892784724, "rvRatio": 2.176251107785043, "rvSpreadPercentile": 5.928853754940712, "rvSpreadPercentileSampleCount": 253, "rvRatioPercentile": 10.276679841897232, "rvRatioPercentileSampleCount": 253, "returnCorrelation30": 0.6091025513859619, "returnCorrelation30SampleCount": 30, "returnCorrelation60": 0.33974230723571053, "returnCorrelation60SampleCount": 60 }, "methodology": "market-context-v1; persisted Derivasys REST API through market_context MCP. Crypto IV: 30 calendar-day fixed tenor near US close, volatility_points, ACT/365. VIX-family: completed US cash-session closes, volatility_points, Yahoo Finance sources ^VIX/^VIX9D/^VIX3M. Crypto RV: 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns, sqrt(365); SPX RV: 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns, sqrt(252), ^GSPC. RV spreads and ratios preserve these different annualisation clocks. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only. Alignment tolerance 600 seconds; cross-asset ingestion 2026-10-12T22:30:56.287428Z; quality valid." }, "btcVolContext": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-context-mcp", "type": "btc_volatility_context_latest", "asset": "BTC", "asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "status": "partial", "ds30": { "value": 42.714128310756564, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "observedAt": null, "ingestedAt": null, "freshness": { "status": "fresh", "ageSeconds": 0.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 120.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": null, "rejectionReasons": [] }, "availability": null, "methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices", "comparisonEligible": true }, "bviv": { "value": 39.306245960876, "units": "volatility_points", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-13T16:28:34+00:00", "observedAt": "2026-10-13T16:29:00+00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-13T16:29:00.011000+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "stale", "ageSeconds": 86.0, "evaluatedAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "maxAgeSeconds": 90.0, "sourceMaxAgeSeconds": 15.0, "rejectionReasons": [ "reference_stale" ] }, "availability": "streaming", "methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel", "comparisonEligible": false }, "bvivMinusDs30": { "value": null, "units": "volatility_points", "status": "unavailable", "methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff" } }, "auditCorrection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "kind": "historical-significance-offline-correction", "eligibilityVersion": 2, "originalReportSha256": "92a3b5cf8a5bb542107def78071355c7254e79f73a41a2573e06b6a763006c58", "originalReportHashBasis": "artifact-bytes", "originalReportCanonicalSha256": "51448520b5c51e6ad31b30ebfeeeb55da7d7e7d96cacdb6efb44bb14d560e0f0", "cadenceDays": 1, "pins": { "BTC": { "pinSha256": 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"surfaceEvents[rotation]" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 5.003, "magnitudeScore": 10.006, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 1.0, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 10.006, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 10.006 }, "story": "BTC 16OCT26 smile rotation moved lower by 5.00", "source": "surfaceEvents[rotation]", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 10.006, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated 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"endSnapshotAt": null }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.68, "magnitudeScore": 1.36, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.68, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 1.36, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 1.36 }, "story": "BTC 2W ATM IV moved lower by 0.68", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 1.36, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-spot-24h", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "spot", "metricLabel": "spot", "tenor": null, "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.83, "current": null, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": 45.8, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": -0.1055, "score": 0.83, "historicalContext": { "status": "available", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute 24h exact index endpoint returns observed from stored prices in this run; same UTC clock; historical windows end at or before current period start; rolling historical windows may overlap each other; not original past published prices", "percentile": 45.8, "observations": 59, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": "2026-08-14T16:30:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00" }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.windows.24h", "realisedVolatility.spotReturns.points" ], "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "6c8afcab73e96c754b0c1eac1369bf35211890d0830a0b6b7e664bb52b63687c" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "percent", "magnitudeScale": 2.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.415, "magnitudeScore": 0.83, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.415, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.83, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": 45.8, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.83 }, "story": "BTC spot-index return was +0.83% over 24 hours", "source": "realisedVolatility.spotMove24hPercent", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "metricWindow": "24h", "spotReturnEvidence": { "status": "available", "startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "startEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 82777.22, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "endEndpoint": { "timestamp": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "price": 83467.2, "venue": "canonical", "instrument": "BTC-USD-INDEX", "fallback": false, "sourceVenue": "deribit", "sourceInstrument": "btc_usd", "unavailableReason": null }, "valuePercent": 0.83, "unavailableReason": null, "sourceSha256": "6c8afcab73e96c754b0c1eac1369bf35211890d0830a0b6b7e664bb52b63687c" }, "selectionScore": 0.83, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-largestRr25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "rr25", "metricLabel": "RR25", "tenor": "2W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": -0.4, "current": -3.88, "previous": -3.48, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 0.8, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history", "provenance": { "sampleCount": 0, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": null, "endDate": null, "startSnapshotAt": null, "endSnapshotAt": null }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 1.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.4, "magnitudeScore": 0.8, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.4, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.8, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.8 }, "story": "BTC 2W RR25 moved lower by 0.40", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.8, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-implied-realised-7d", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "impliedRealised", "metricLabel": "implied-versus-realised spread", "tenor": "1W", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "level", "change": null, "current": 1.89, "previous": null, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 0.378, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "level", "basis": "matching stored history unavailable", "percentile": null, "observations": null, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints" ], "unavailableReason": "history-status-unavailable-or-invalid" }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 10.0, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.189, "magnitudeScore": 0.378, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.189, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.378, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": 0.0, "selectionScore": 0.378 }, "story": "BTC 1W implied-versus-realised spread stood at 1.89", "source": "realisedVolatility.oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.378, "selectionReason": "Deterministic metric-scaled magnitude, matching historical rarity, evidence availability and validated coordination/crossings; ties ordered by candidate ID" }, { "id": "btc-largestBf25Move", "asset": "BTC", "metric": "bf25", "metricLabel": "BF25", "tenor": "1M", "expiry": null, "observationKind": "change", "change": 0.17, "current": 2.09, "previous": 1.92, "relativeChangePercent": null, "historicalPercentile": null, "historicalLevelPercentile": null, "historicalZScore": null, "score": 0.68, "historicalContext": { "status": "unavailable", "observationKind": "change", "basis": "absolute matching cadence moves in prior 30 days", "percentile": null, "observations": 0, "minimumObservations": 20, "window": { "start": null, "end": null }, "sourceRefs": [ "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move.historicalSignificance.movePercentile30d" ], "unavailableReason": "insufficient-history", "provenance": { "sampleCount": 0, "observationHorizonDays": 1, "samplingCadence": "daily UTC observations", "periodsOverlap": false, "sampleWindow": { "startDate": null, "endDate": null, "startSnapshotAt": null, "endSnapshotAt": null }, "sourceDigest": "sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945" } }, "scoreComponents": { "version": 3, "unit": "volatility points", "magnitudeScale": 0.5, "normalizedMagnitude": 0.34, "magnitudeScore": 0.68, "historicalMagnitudeScale": 0.34, "historicalBonus": 0.0, "evidenceQuality": 1.0, "totalScore": 0.68, "rarity": { "policyVersion": 1, "tail": "none", "percentile": null, "tailDistance": 0.0, "magnitudeIndependent": false }, "formula": "(2 * min(abs(observation) / metric scale, 20) + rarity * historical magnitude scale) * evidence quality; validated dispersion lower tail <= 10 uses scale 1", "selectionAdjustment": -0.51, "selectionScore": 0.17 }, "story": "BTC 1M BF25 moved higher by 0.17", "source": "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move", "scope": "single-asset", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "selectionScore": 0.17, "selectionReason": "A butterfly adjustment below 0.25 points is supporting detail" } ], "reportSignals": { "schemaVersion": 1, "reportKey": "daily:BTC", "cadence": "daily", "reportDate": "2026-10-13", "canonicalReportUrl": "https://www.derivasys.com/reports/2026-10-13/", "comparisonWindow": { "startAt": "2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00", "startAtReason": null, "endAt": "2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": null, "basis": "stored surface snapshots; per-asset actual timestamps are in provenance.snapshots", "targetDuration": "24h" }, "leadSignal": { "id": "btc-smile-rotation", "asset": "BTC", "metric": 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