{
  "schemaVersion": 3,
  "reportDate": "2026-08-05",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-05T23:06:14+00:00",
  "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-08-05T23:03:00+00:00",
  "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-08-04T23:03:00+00:00",
  "windowHours": 24.0,
  "currency": "BTC",
  "methodology": {
    "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database",
    "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart",
    "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV",
    "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV",
    "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV",
    "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.",
    "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.",
    "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.",
    "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.",
    "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts."
  },
  "fitQuality": {
    "currentObjective": 0.04025237,
    "previousObjective": 0.06811568,
    "currentLiveError": 74.46607199,
    "previousLiveError": 99.47853491
  },
  "coverage": {
    "currentListedExpiries": 12,
    "previousListedExpiries": 12,
    "comparedListedExpiries": 11,
    "addedExpiries": [
      "9AUG26"
    ],
    "removedExpiries": [
      "5AUG26"
    ],
    "fixedTenors": [
      "1W",
      "2W",
      "1M",
      "3M",
      "6M",
      "9M",
      "1Y"
    ]
  },
  "commentary": {
    "source": "openai",
    "model": "gpt-5.6-luna",
    "headline": "BTC options volatility rises as call-side skew strengthens",
    "executiveSummary": "ATM IV increased across tenors, led by the 1M tenor, while RR25 moved toward calls and BF25 was broadly unchanged.",
    "evidenceIds": [
      "front-atm",
      "back-atm",
      "rr25",
      "bf25",
      "largest-standard-tenor",
      "headline-tenor-averages"
    ],
    "newsSummary": "Strategy\u2019s STRC rebounded as the company built a cash reserve and bitcoin stabilized. Separately, a $120 million Coldcard hack drew attention to Bitcoin\u2019s memory pool.",
    "marketContextSummary": "The collected headlines did not provide a sufficiently direct explanation for the observed BTC options repricing.",
    "marketContext": [
      {
        "title": "Headline backdrop",
        "explanation": "The collected reports provided contemporaneous Bitcoin market and security context, but neither directly explained higher ATM volatility or the move toward call-side volatility.",
        "relationship": "no-clear-link",
        "confidence": "low",
        "surfaceEvidenceIds": [
          "front-atm",
          "back-atm",
          "rr25",
          "bf25"
        ],
        "newsEvidenceIds": [
          "news-ee85453cf6206db5",
          "news-f7b3a8c56ad63999"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "newsEvidenceIds": [
      "news-ee85453cf6206db5",
      "news-f7b3a8c56ad63999"
    ],
    "takeaways": [
      {
        "id": "front-atm",
        "label": "Front end",
        "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.62 volatility points to 30.48% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
      },
      {
        "id": "back-atm",
        "label": "Long end",
        "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.22 volatility points to 40.94% across 6M and 1Y."
      },
      {
        "id": "rr25",
        "label": "Skew",
        "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.34 volatility points to -3.88% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "bf25",
        "label": "Convexity",
        "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.03 volatility points to 2.03% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
        "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
        "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.67 volatility points at 1M, to 32.53%.",
        "tenor": "1M",
        "value": 0.67
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsEvidence": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "source": "market-news-collector",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-05T23:05:02+00:00",
    "window": {
      "startAt": "2026-08-04T23:03:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-08-05T23:03:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "collectorWindow": {
      "startAt": "2026-08-04T23:03:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-08-05T23:03:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "coverage": {
      "configuredSources": 13,
      "successfulSources": 13,
      "failedSources": 0
    },
    "selection": {
      "feedsQueried": 13,
      "publishersQueried": 13,
      "feedEntriesScanned": 309,
      "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 58,
      "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 14,
      "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 2,
      "storiesSelected": 2,
      "selectedPublishers": 1,
      "maximumStories": 3,
      "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2,
      "minimumSelectionScore": 6,
      "eventsSelected": 2
    },
    "items": [
      {
        "id": "news-ee85453cf6206db5",
        "sourceId": "coindesk",
        "publisher": "CoinDesk",
        "title": "Strategy\u2019s STRC rebounds 30% as company builds cash reserve, bitcoin price stabilizes",
        "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/05/strategy-s-strc-rebounds-30-as-company-builds-cash-reserve-bitcoin-price-stabilizes",
        "publishedAt": "2026-08-05T14:44:30+00:00",
        "summary": "",
        "matchedTerms": [
          "bitcoin"
        ],
        "topics": [
          "crypto",
          "bitcoin",
          "markets"
        ],
        "sourceKind": "newsroom",
        "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
        "selectionScore": 17,
        "relevanceReasons": [
          "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
        ],
        "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
          "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-05"
      },
      {
        "id": "news-f7b3a8c56ad63999",
        "sourceId": "coindesk",
        "publisher": "CoinDesk",
        "title": "The $120 million Coldcard hack lights up Bitcoin's memory pool",
        "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/08/05/the-usd120-million-coldcard-hack-lights-up-bitcoin-s-memory-pool",
        "publishedAt": "2026-08-05T11:20:58+00:00",
        "summary": "",
        "matchedTerms": [
          "bitcoin"
        ],
        "topics": [
          "crypto",
          "bitcoin",
          "markets"
        ],
        "sourceKind": "newsroom",
        "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
        "selectionScore": 10,
        "relevanceReasons": [
          "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
        ],
        "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
          "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "event_cluster_id": "exchange-incident-2026-08-05"
      }
    ],
    "events": [
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-05",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
          "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-ee85453cf6206db5",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "Strategy\u2019s STRC rebounds 30% as company builds cash reserve, bitcoin price stabilizes",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/05/strategy-s-strc-rebounds-30-as-company-builds-cash-reserve-bitcoin-price-stabilizes",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-05T14:44:30+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 17,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
            "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-05"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      },
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "exchange-incident-2026-08-05",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
          "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-f7b3a8c56ad63999",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "The $120 million Coldcard hack lights up Bitcoin's memory pool",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/08/05/the-usd120-million-coldcard-hack-lights-up-bitcoin-s-memory-pool",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-05T11:20:58+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 10,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
            "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "exchange-incident-2026-08-05"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsContext": {
    "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst",
    "highest_causal_confidence": "low",
    "section_heading": "Relevant market events",
    "events": [
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-05",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
          "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-ee85453cf6206db5",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "Strategy\u2019s STRC rebounds 30% as company builds cash reserve, bitcoin price stabilizes",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/05/strategy-s-strc-rebounds-30-as-company-builds-cash-reserve-bitcoin-price-stabilizes",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-05T14:44:30+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 17,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
            "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-05"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      },
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "exchange-incident-2026-08-05",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
          "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-f7b3a8c56ad63999",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "The $120 million Coldcard hack lights up Bitcoin's memory pool",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/08/05/the-usd120-million-coldcard-hack-lights-up-bitcoin-s-memory-pool",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-05T11:20:58+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 10,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD",
            "ATM IV 1M: up 0.67 points to 32.53%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 8AUG26: +361.20 USD (+0.56%) to 64565.54 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "exchange-incident-2026-08-05"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      }
    ]
  },
  "marketRead": {
    "text": "1W RR25 moved 0.71 volatility points toward calls to -2.40%, leaving puts richer than calls; this was a routine move at the 48th percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 30.48%, +0.62 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.94%, +0.22 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 0.51 points to 12.82 points. 1M ATM IV rose 0.67 volatility points to 32.53%. 2W BF25 fell 0.22 volatility points to 1.58%. The nearest eligible forward, 8AUG26, rose $361.20 (+0.56%) to $64,565.54. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.",
    "wordCount": 94,
    "source": "deterministic structured report facts",
    "evidenceFields": [
      "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove",
      "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm",
      "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm",
      "summaryMetrics.oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope",
      "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove",
      "newsContext.outcome",
      "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"
    ]
  },
  "facts": [
    {
      "id": "front-atm",
      "label": "Front end",
      "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.62 volatility points to 30.48% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
    },
    {
      "id": "back-atm",
      "label": "Long end",
      "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.22 volatility points to 40.94% across 6M and 1Y."
    },
    {
      "id": "rr25",
      "label": "Skew",
      "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.34 volatility points to -3.88% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "bf25",
      "label": "Convexity",
      "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.03 volatility points to 2.03% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
      "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
      "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.67 volatility points at 1M, to 32.53%.",
      "tenor": "1M",
      "value": 0.67
    }
  ],
  "summaryMetrics": {
    "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison",
    "unit": "volatility points",
    "atmIvChange": 0.45,
    "rr25Change": 0.34,
    "bf25Change": -0.03,
    "largestAtmMove": {
      "tenor": "1M",
      "current": 32.53,
      "previous": 31.86,
      "change": 0.67,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.67,
        "movePercentile30d": 63.3,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 46.6,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 1.9,
        "classificationPercentile": 63.3,
        "label": "routine",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 103,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 104
      }
    },
    "frontEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": 30.48,
      "previous": 29.86,
      "change": 0.62
    },
    "longEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": 40.94,
      "previous": 40.72,
      "change": 0.22
    },
    "oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope": {
      "current": 12.82,
      "previous": 13.33,
      "change": -0.51
    },
    "largestRr25Move": {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "current": -2.4,
      "previous": -3.11,
      "change": 0.71,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.71,
        "movePercentile30d": 46.7,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 48.5,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 83.7,
        "classificationPercentile": 48.5,
        "label": "routine",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 103,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 104
      },
      "direction": "toward calls",
      "currentSign": "put-rich"
    },
    "largestBf25Move": {
      "tenor": "2W",
      "current": 1.58,
      "previous": 1.8,
      "change": -0.22,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.22,
        "movePercentile30d": 86.7,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 63.1,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 6.7,
        "classificationPercentile": 86.7,
        "label": "notable",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 103,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 104
      }
    },
    "nearestEligibleForwardMove": {
      "label": "8AUG26",
      "daysToExpiry": 2.373,
      "current": 64565.54,
      "previous": 64204.34,
      "change": 361.2,
      "percentChange": 0.56
    }
  },
  "tenors": [
    {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "targetExpiry": 1786575784011,
      "availability": "available",
      "unavailableReason": null,
      "atmIv": {
        "current": 29.16,
        "previous": 28.51,
        "change": 0.65,
        "percentChange": 2.28
      },
      "rr25": {
        "current": -2.4,
        "previous": -3.11,
        "change": 0.71,
        "percentChange": 22.83
      },
      "bf25": {
        "current": 1.4,
        "previous": 1.53,
        "change": -0.13,
        "percentChange": -8.5
      },
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "atmIv": {
          "absoluteMove": 0.65,
          "movePercentile30d": 40.0,
          "movePercentileFullHistory": 26.2,
          "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 1.9,
          "classificationPercentile": 40.0,
          "label": "routine",
          "observations30d": 30,
          "observationsFullHistory": 103,
          "levelObservationsFullHistory": 104
        },
        "rr25": {
          "absoluteMove": 0.71,
          "movePercentile30d": 46.7,
          "movePercentileFullHistory": 48.5,
          "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 83.7,
          "classificationPercentile": 48.5,
          "label": "routine",
          "observations30d": 30,
          "observationsFullHistory": 103,
          "levelObservationsFullHistory": 104
        },
        "bf25": {
          "absoluteMove": 0.13,
          "movePercentile30d": 66.7,
          "movePercentileFullHistory": 45.6,
          "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 2.9,
          "classificationPercentile": 66.7,
          "label": "routine",
          "observations30d": 30,
          "observationsFullHistory": 103,
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