{
  "schemaVersion": 3,
  "reportDate": "2026-08-04",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-04T16:21:42+00:00",
  "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-08-04T16:19:00+00:00",
  "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-08-03T16:19:00+00:00",
  "windowHours": 24.0,
  "currency": "BTC",
  "methodology": {
    "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database",
    "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart",
    "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV",
    "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV",
    "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV",
    "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.",
    "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.",
    "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.",
    "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.",
    "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts."
  },
  "fitQuality": {
    "currentObjective": 0.05265975,
    "previousObjective": 0.0887596,
    "currentLiveError": 86.15714775,
    "previousLiveError": 144.5068832
  },
  "coverage": {
    "currentListedExpiries": 12,
    "previousListedExpiries": 12,
    "comparedListedExpiries": 11,
    "addedExpiries": [
      "8AUG26"
    ],
    "removedExpiries": [
      "4AUG26"
    ],
    "fixedTenors": [
      "1W",
      "2W",
      "1M",
      "3M",
      "6M",
      "9M",
      "1Y"
    ]
  },
  "commentary": {
    "source": "openai",
    "model": "gpt-5.6-luna",
    "headline": "BTC front-end volatility eases as call-side skew firms",
    "executiveSummary": "Front-end ATM IV declined, led by a 1W drop, while longer-dated IV was broadly unchanged and RR25 shifted modestly toward calls.",
    "evidenceIds": [
      "front-atm",
      "back-atm",
      "rr25",
      "bf25",
      "largest-standard-tenor",
      "headline-tenor-averages"
    ],
    "newsSummary": "CoinDesk reported the closure of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF amid dwindling inflows and investor interest in AI returns. Separately, Bhutan\u2019s GMC put part of its bitcoin treasury to work after a 10,000 BTC pledge.",
    "marketContextSummary": "The collected headlines did not provide a sufficiently direct explanation for the observed BTC options repricing.",
    "marketContext": [
      {
        "title": "ETF closure and dwindling inflows",
        "explanation": "The report provided contemporaneous bitcoin-market context, but did not directly explain the options repricing.",
        "relationship": "no-clear-link",
        "confidence": "low",
        "surfaceEvidenceIds": [
          "front-atm",
          "largest-standard-tenor"
        ],
        "newsEvidenceIds": [
          "news-63c8b5c25e332b0f"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Bhutan bitcoin treasury activity",
        "explanation": "The treasury headline was relevant broader bitcoin context, but no direct link to the observed volatility changes was established.",
        "relationship": "no-clear-link",
        "confidence": "low",
        "surfaceEvidenceIds": [
          "front-atm",
          "rr25"
        ],
        "newsEvidenceIds": [
          "news-f077a7f7b2e891a1"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "newsEvidenceIds": [
      "news-63c8b5c25e332b0f",
      "news-f077a7f7b2e891a1"
    ],
    "takeaways": [
      {
        "id": "front-atm",
        "label": "Front end",
        "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.15 volatility points to 30.42% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
      },
      {
        "id": "back-atm",
        "label": "Long end",
        "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 40.78% across 6M and 1Y."
      },
      {
        "id": "rr25",
        "label": "Skew",
        "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.23 volatility points to -4.29% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "bf25",
        "label": "Convexity",
        "text": "BF25 decreased, averaging -0.14 volatility points to 2.06% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
        "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
        "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.84 volatility points at 1W, to 29.08%.",
        "tenor": "1W",
        "value": -1.84
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsEvidence": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "source": "market-news-collector",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-04T16:20:12+00:00",
    "window": {
      "startAt": "2026-08-03T16:19:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-08-04T16:19:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "collectorWindow": {
      "startAt": "2026-08-03T16:19:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-08-04T16:19:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "coverage": {
      "configuredSources": 13,
      "successfulSources": 13,
      "failedSources": 0
    },
    "selection": {
      "feedsQueried": 13,
      "publishersQueried": 13,
      "feedEntriesScanned": 316,
      "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 67,
      "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 12,
      "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 2,
      "storiesSelected": 2,
      "selectedPublishers": 1,
      "maximumStories": 3,
      "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2,
      "minimumSelectionScore": 6,
      "eventsSelected": 2
    },
    "items": [
      {
        "id": "news-63c8b5c25e332b0f",
        "sourceId": "coindesk",
        "publisher": "CoinDesk",
        "title": "First U.S. spot bitcoin ETF to close as inflows dwindle, investors chase AI returns",
        "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/04/first-u-s-spot-bitcoin-etf-to-close-as-inflows-dwindle-investors-chase-ai-returns",
        "publishedAt": "2026-08-04T09:54:02+00:00",
        "summary": "",
        "matchedTerms": [
          "bitcoin",
          "ETF"
        ],
        "topics": [
          "crypto",
          "bitcoin",
          "markets"
        ],
        "sourceKind": "newsroom",
        "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
        "selectionScore": 12,
        "relevanceReasons": [
          "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
        ],
        "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7c6efafe9047"
      },
      {
        "id": "news-f077a7f7b2e891a1",
        "sourceId": "coindesk",
        "publisher": "CoinDesk",
        "title": "Bhutan's GMC puts part of its bitcoin treasury to work after 10,000 BTC pledge",
        "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/04/bhutan-s-gmc-puts-part-of-its-bitcoin-treasury-to-work-after-10-000-btc-pledge",
        "publishedAt": "2026-08-04T07:56:11+00:00",
        "summary": "",
        "matchedTerms": [
          "bitcoin",
          "btc"
        ],
        "topics": [
          "crypto",
          "bitcoin",
          "markets"
        ],
        "sourceKind": "newsroom",
        "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
        "selectionScore": 10,
        "relevanceReasons": [
          "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
        ],
        "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "contrary",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-f99dab7e5c42"
      }
    ],
    "events": [
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7c6efafe9047",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-63c8b5c25e332b0f",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "First U.S. spot bitcoin ETF to close as inflows dwindle, investors chase AI returns",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/04/first-u-s-spot-bitcoin-etf-to-close-as-inflows-dwindle-investors-chase-ai-returns",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-04T09:54:02+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin",
            "ETF"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 12,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7c6efafe9047"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      },
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-f99dab7e5c42",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "contrary",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-f077a7f7b2e891a1",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "Bhutan's GMC puts part of its bitcoin treasury to work after 10,000 BTC pledge",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/04/bhutan-s-gmc-puts-part-of-its-bitcoin-treasury-to-work-after-10-000-btc-pledge",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-04T07:56:11+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin",
            "btc"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 10,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "contrary",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "market-event-f99dab7e5c42"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsContext": {
    "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst",
    "highest_causal_confidence": "low",
    "section_heading": "Relevant market events",
    "events": [
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7c6efafe9047",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-63c8b5c25e332b0f",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "First U.S. spot bitcoin ETF to close as inflows dwindle, investors chase AI returns",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/04/first-u-s-spot-bitcoin-etf-to-close-as-inflows-dwindle-investors-chase-ai-returns",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-04T09:54:02+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin",
            "ETF"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 12,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "market-event-7c6efafe9047"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      },
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-f99dab7e5c42",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "contrary",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-f077a7f7b2e891a1",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "Bhutan's GMC puts part of its bitcoin treasury to work after 10,000 BTC pledge",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/04/bhutan-s-gmc-puts-part-of-its-bitcoin-treasury-to-work-after-10-000-btc-pledge",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-04T07:56:11+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin",
            "btc"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 10,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "contrary",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD",
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.84 points to 29.08%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 7AUG26: +223.43 USD (+0.35%) to 64037.96 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "market-event-f99dab7e5c42"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      }
    ]
  },
  "marketRead": {
    "text": "1W ATM IV fell 1.84 volatility points to 29.08%, a notable move at the 80th percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 30.42%, -1.15 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.78%, -0.03 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 1.85 points to 12.80 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.66 volatility points toward calls to -3.26%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 fell 0.35 volatility points to 1.57%. The nearest eligible forward, 7AUG26, rose $223.43 (+0.35%) to $64,037.96. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.",
    "wordCount": 92,
    "source": "deterministic structured report facts",
    "evidenceFields": [
      "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove",
      "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm",
      "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm",
      "summaryMetrics.oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope",
      "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove",
      "newsContext.outcome",
      "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"
    ]
  },
  "facts": [
    {
      "id": "front-atm",
      "label": "Front end",
      "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.15 volatility points to 30.42% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
    },
    {
      "id": "back-atm",
      "label": "Long end",
      "text": "Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 40.78% across 6M and 1Y."
    },
    {
      "id": "rr25",
      "label": "Skew",
      "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.23 volatility points to -4.29% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "bf25",
      "label": "Convexity",
      "text": "BF25 decreased, averaging -0.14 volatility points to 2.06% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
      "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
      "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.84 volatility points at 1W, to 29.08%.",
      "tenor": "1W",
      "value": -1.84
    }
  ],
  "summaryMetrics": {
    "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison",
    "unit": "volatility points",
    "atmIvChange": -0.61,
    "rr25Change": 0.23,
    "bf25Change": -0.14,
    "largestAtmMove": {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "current": 29.08,
      "previous": 30.92,
      "change": -1.84,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 1.84,
        "movePercentile30d": 80.0,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 58.8,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 1.0,
        "classificationPercentile": 80.0,
        "label": "notable",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 102,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 103
      }
    },
    "frontEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": 30.42,
      "previous": 31.57,
      "change": -1.15
    },
    "longEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": 40.78,
      "previous": 40.81,
      "change": -0.03
    },
    "oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope": {
      "current": 12.8,
      "previous": 10.95,
      "change": 1.85
    },
    "largestRr25Move": {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "current": -3.26,
      "previous": -3.92,
      "change": 0.66,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.66,
        "movePercentile30d": 46.7,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 47.1,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 68.0,
        "classificationPercentile": 47.1,
        "label": "routine",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 102,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 103
      },
      "direction": "toward calls",
      "currentSign": "put-rich"
    },
    "largestBf25Move": {
      "tenor": "2W",
      "current": 1.57,
      "previous": 1.92,
      "change": -0.35,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.35,
        "movePercentile30d": 86.7,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 74.5,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 6.8,
        "classificationPercentile": 86.7,
        "label": "notable",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 102,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 103
      }
    },
    "nearestEligibleForwardMove": {
      "label": "7AUG26",
      "daysToExpiry": 2.653,
      "current": 64037.96,
      "previous": 63814.53,
      "change": 223.43,
      "percentChange": 0.35
    }
  },
  "tenors": [
    {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "targetExpiry": 1786465142096,
      "availability": "available",
      "unavailableReason": null,
      "atmIv": {
        "current": 29.08,
        "previous": 30.92,
        "change": -1.84,
        "percentChange": -5.95
      },
      "rr25": {
        "current": -3.26,
        "previous": -3.92,
        "change": 0.66,
        "percentChange": 16.84
      },
      "bf25": {
        "current": 1.54,
        "previous": 1.88,
        "change": -0.34,
        "percentChange": -18.09
      },
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "atmIv": {
          "absoluteMove": 1.84,
          "movePercentile30d": 80.0,
          "movePercentileFullHistory": 58.8,
          "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 1.0,
          "classificationPercentile": 80.0,
          "label": "notable",
          "observations30d": 30,
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