{
  "schemaVersion": 3,
  "reportDate": "2026-08-03",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-03T19:11:53+00:00",
  "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-08-03T19:09:00+00:00",
  "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-08-02T19:09:00+00:00",
  "windowHours": 24.0,
  "currency": "BTC",
  "methodology": {
    "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database",
    "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart",
    "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV",
    "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV",
    "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV",
    "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.",
    "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.",
    "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.",
    "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.",
    "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts."
  },
  "fitQuality": {
    "currentObjective": 0.11263781,
    "previousObjective": 0.04425183,
    "currentLiveError": 154.27032379,
    "previousLiveError": 70.07263015
  },
  "coverage": {
    "currentListedExpiries": 12,
    "previousListedExpiries": 13,
    "comparedListedExpiries": 12,
    "addedExpiries": [],
    "removedExpiries": [
      "3AUG26"
    ],
    "fixedTenors": [
      "1W",
      "2W",
      "1M",
      "3M",
      "6M",
      "9M",
      "1Y"
    ]
  },
  "commentary": {
    "source": "openai",
    "model": "gpt-5.6-luna",
    "headline": "BTC options volatility eases as relative call-side skew firms",
    "executiveSummary": "ATM IV declined across the curve, led by the 1W tenor, while RR25 moved toward calls and BF25 was broadly unchanged.",
    "evidenceIds": [
      "front-atm",
      "back-atm",
      "rr25",
      "bf25",
      "largest-standard-tenor",
      "headline-tenor-averages"
    ],
    "newsSummary": "CoinDesk reported that bitcoin futures yields had fallen below Treasury-note levels. Separate live updates reported bitcoin above $63,000 as stocks surged at the start of August.",
    "marketContextSummary": "Contemporaneous reports on compressed bitcoin futures yields and bitcoin\u2019s rise above $63,000 offer possible context for softer implied volatility, but do not establish the reason for the repricing.",
    "marketContext": [
      {
        "title": "Lower front-end volatility",
        "explanation": "The 1W ATM IV decline was the largest standard-tenor move, while front-end and long-dated ATM IV both decreased. The futures-yield report is temporally aligned and relevant as possible market context, but its connection is uncertain.",
        "relationship": "possible-driver",
        "confidence": "low",
        "surfaceEvidenceIds": [
          "front-atm",
          "back-atm",
          "largest-standard-tenor"
        ],
        "newsEvidenceIds": [
          "news-1e5372a5e3341bcd"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Relative call-side skew firmed",
        "explanation": "RR25 moved toward calls while BF25 was broadly unchanged. The report of bitcoin rising above $63,000 provides contemporaneous price context, though it does not prove a cause for the skew adjustment.",
        "relationship": "possible-driver",
        "confidence": "low",
        "surfaceEvidenceIds": [
          "rr25",
          "bf25"
        ],
        "newsEvidenceIds": [
          "news-37e5c0935e5d30d7"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "newsEvidenceIds": [
      "news-1e5372a5e3341bcd",
      "news-37e5c0935e5d30d7"
    ],
    "takeaways": [
      {
        "id": "front-atm",
        "label": "Front end",
        "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.85 volatility points to 31.25% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
      },
      {
        "id": "back-atm",
        "label": "Long end",
        "text": "Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.25 volatility points to 40.80% across 6M and 1Y."
      },
      {
        "id": "rr25",
        "label": "Skew",
        "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.24 volatility points to -4.46% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "bf25",
        "label": "Convexity",
        "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.18% across the six headline tenors."
      },
      {
        "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
        "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
        "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.25 volatility points at 1W, to 30.39%.",
        "tenor": "1W",
        "value": -1.25
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsEvidence": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "source": "market-news-collector",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-03T19:10:23+00:00",
    "window": {
      "startAt": "2026-08-02T19:09:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-08-03T19:09:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "collectorWindow": {
      "startAt": "2026-08-02T19:09:00+00:00",
      "endAt": "2026-08-03T19:09:00+00:00",
      "endExclusive": true
    },
    "coverage": {
      "configuredSources": 13,
      "successfulSources": 13,
      "failedSources": 0
    },
    "selection": {
      "feedsQueried": 13,
      "publishersQueried": 13,
      "feedEntriesScanned": 308,
      "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 48,
      "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 11,
      "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 2,
      "storiesSelected": 2,
      "selectedPublishers": 1,
      "maximumStories": 3,
      "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2,
      "minimumSelectionScore": 6,
      "eventsSelected": 2
    },
    "items": [
      {
        "id": "news-1e5372a5e3341bcd",
        "sourceId": "coindesk",
        "publisher": "CoinDesk",
        "title": "The bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes",
        "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/03/the-bitcoin-futures-yield-collapse-once-over-20-now-less-than-treasury-notes",
        "publishedAt": "2026-08-03T10:13:50+00:00",
        "summary": "",
        "matchedTerms": [
          "bitcoin"
        ],
        "topics": [
          "crypto",
          "bitcoin",
          "markets"
        ],
        "sourceKind": "newsroom",
        "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
        "selectionScore": 18,
        "relevanceReasons": [
          "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move."
        ],
        "selectionReason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "direct options",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%",
          "RR25 1M: 0.74 points toward calls to -4.76% (put-rich)",
          "BF25 1W: up 0.10 points to 1.94%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-9925fcdfc388"
      },
      {
        "id": "news-37e5c0935e5d30d7",
        "sourceId": "coindesk",
        "publisher": "CoinDesk",
        "title": "Live updates: Bitcoin rises above $63,000 as stocks surge to start August",
        "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/03/live-updates-traders-say-bitcoin-sell-off-from-usd65-000-points-to-thin-volume-not-panic-selling",
        "publishedAt": "2026-08-03T10:29:23+00:00",
        "summary": "",
        "matchedTerms": [
          "bitcoin"
        ],
        "topics": [
          "crypto",
          "bitcoin",
          "markets"
        ],
        "sourceKind": "newsroom",
        "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
        "selectionScore": 10,
        "relevanceReasons": [
          "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
        ],
        "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-03"
      }
    ],
    "events": [
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-9925fcdfc388",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "direct options",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%",
          "RR25 1M: 0.74 points toward calls to -4.76% (put-rich)",
          "BF25 1W: up 0.10 points to 1.94%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-1e5372a5e3341bcd",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "The bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/03/the-bitcoin-futures-yield-collapse-once-over-20-now-less-than-treasury-notes",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-03T10:13:50+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 18,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "direct options",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%",
            "RR25 1M: 0.74 points toward calls to -4.76% (put-rich)",
            "BF25 1W: up 0.10 points to 1.94%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
          "event_cluster_id": "market-event-9925fcdfc388"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      },
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-03",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-37e5c0935e5d30d7",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "Live updates: Bitcoin rises above $63,000 as stocks surge to start August",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/03/live-updates-traders-say-bitcoin-sell-off-from-usd65-000-points-to-thin-volume-not-panic-selling",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-03T10:29:23+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 10,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD",
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-03"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsContext": {
    "outcome": "Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst",
    "highest_causal_confidence": "low",
    "section_heading": "Relevant market events",
    "events": [
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "market-event-9925fcdfc388",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "direct options",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%",
          "RR25 1M: 0.74 points toward calls to -4.76% (put-rich)",
          "BF25 1W: up 0.10 points to 1.94%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-1e5372a5e3341bcd",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "The bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/03/the-bitcoin-futures-yield-collapse-once-over-20-now-less-than-treasury-notes",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-03T10:13:50+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 18,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "direct options",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%",
            "RR25 1M: 0.74 points toward calls to -4.76% (put-rich)",
            "BF25 1W: up 0.10 points to 1.94%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as direct options context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%; the relationship is assessed from the observed market description and surface move.",
          "event_cluster_id": "market-event-9925fcdfc388"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      },
      {
        "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-03",
        "status": "selected",
        "relevance": "broader crypto",
        "relationship": "neutral",
        "causal_confidence": "low",
        "matched_signals": [
          "Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD",
          "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%"
        ],
        "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
        "primary_article": {
          "id": "news-37e5c0935e5d30d7",
          "sourceId": "coindesk",
          "publisher": "CoinDesk",
          "title": "Live updates: Bitcoin rises above $63,000 as stocks surge to start August",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/03/live-updates-traders-say-bitcoin-sell-off-from-usd65-000-points-to-thin-volume-not-panic-selling",
          "publishedAt": "2026-08-03T10:29:23+00:00",
          "summary": "",
          "matchedTerms": [
            "bitcoin"
          ],
          "topics": [
            "crypto",
            "bitcoin",
            "markets"
          ],
          "sourceKind": "newsroom",
          "rightsStatus": "review-pending",
          "selectionScore": 10,
          "relevanceReasons": [
            "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship."
          ],
          "selectionReason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "status": "selected",
          "relevance": "broader crypto",
          "relationship": "neutral",
          "causal_confidence": "low",
          "matched_signals": [
            "Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD",
            "ATM IV 1W: down 1.25 points to 30.39%"
          ],
          "selection_reason": "Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6AUG26: +497.18 USD (+0.78%) to 63834.12 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.",
          "event_cluster_id": "btc-price-context-2026-08-03"
        },
        "additional_coverage": []
      }
    ]
  },
  "marketRead": {
    "text": "1W ATM IV fell 1.25 volatility points to 30.39%, a routine move at the 60th percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 31.25%, -0.85 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.80%, -0.25 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 1.02 points to 11.53 points. 1M RR25 moved 0.74 volatility points toward calls to -4.76%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 rose 0.10 volatility points to 1.94%. The nearest eligible forward, 6AUG26, rose $497.18 (+0.78%) to $63,834.12. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.",
    "wordCount": 92,
    "source": "deterministic structured report facts",
    "evidenceFields": [
      "summaryMetrics.largestAtmMove",
      "summaryMetrics.frontEndAverageAtm",
      "summaryMetrics.longEndAverageAtm",
      "summaryMetrics.oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope",
      "summaryMetrics.largestRr25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.largestBf25Move",
      "summaryMetrics.nearestEligibleForwardMove",
      "newsContext.outcome",
      "newsContext.highest_causal_confidence"
    ]
  },
  "facts": [
    {
      "id": "front-atm",
      "label": "Front end",
      "text": "Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.85 volatility points to 31.25% across 1W, 2W and 1M."
    },
    {
      "id": "back-atm",
      "label": "Long end",
      "text": "Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.25 volatility points to 40.80% across 6M and 1Y."
    },
    {
      "id": "rr25",
      "label": "Skew",
      "text": "RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.24 volatility points to -4.46% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "bf25",
      "label": "Convexity",
      "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.18% across the six headline tenors."
    },
    {
      "id": "largest-standard-tenor",
      "label": "Largest standard-tenor move",
      "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.25 volatility points at 1W, to 30.39%.",
      "tenor": "1W",
      "value": -1.25
    }
  ],
  "summaryMetrics": {
    "basis": "Fixed-tenor endpoint comparison",
    "unit": "volatility points",
    "atmIvChange": -0.54,
    "rr25Change": 0.24,
    "bf25Change": 0.02,
    "largestAtmMove": {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "current": 30.39,
      "previous": 31.64,
      "change": -1.25,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 1.25,
        "movePercentile30d": 60.0,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 39.6,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 2.0,
        "classificationPercentile": 60.0,
        "label": "routine",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 101,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 102
      }
    },
    "frontEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": 31.25,
      "previous": 32.1,
      "change": -0.85
    },
    "longEndAverageAtm": {
      "current": 40.8,
      "previous": 41.05,
      "change": -0.25
    },
    "oneYearMinusOneWeekAtmSlope": {
      "current": 11.53,
      "previous": 10.51,
      "change": 1.02
    },
    "largestRr25Move": {
      "tenor": "1M",
      "current": -4.76,
      "previous": -5.5,
      "change": 0.74,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.74,
        "movePercentile30d": 86.7,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 73.3,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 61.8,
        "classificationPercentile": 86.7,
        "label": "notable",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 101,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 102
      },
      "direction": "toward calls",
      "currentSign": "put-rich"
    },
    "largestBf25Move": {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "current": 1.94,
      "previous": 1.84,
      "change": 0.1,
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "absoluteMove": 0.1,
        "movePercentile30d": 50.0,
        "movePercentileFullHistory": 36.6,
        "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 58.8,
        "classificationPercentile": 50.0,
        "label": "routine",
        "observations30d": 30,
        "observationsFullHistory": 101,
        "levelObservationsFullHistory": 102
      }
    },
    "nearestEligibleForwardMove": {
      "label": "6AUG26",
      "daysToExpiry": 2.535,
      "current": 63834.12,
      "previous": 63336.94,
      "change": 497.18,
      "percentChange": 0.78
    }
  },
  "tenors": [
    {
      "tenor": "1W",
      "targetExpiry": 1786388942333,
      "availability": "available",
      "unavailableReason": null,
      "atmIv": {
        "current": 30.39,
        "previous": 31.64,
        "change": -1.25,
        "percentChange": -3.95
      },
      "rr25": {
        "current": -3.7,
        "previous": -3.66,
        "change": -0.04,
        "percentChange": -1.09
      },
      "bf25": {
        "current": 1.94,
        "previous": 1.84,
        "change": 0.1,
        "percentChange": 5.43
      },
      "historicalSignificance": {
        "atmIv": {
          "absoluteMove": 1.25,
          "movePercentile30d": 60.0,
          "movePercentileFullHistory": 39.6,
          "currentLevelPercentileFullHistory": 2.0,
          "classificationPercentile": 60.0,
          "label": "routine",
          "observations30d": 30,
          "observationsFullHistory": 101,
          "levelObservationsFullHistory": 102
        },
        "rr25": {
          "absoluteMove": 0.04,
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