{ "schemaVersion": 2, "reportDate": "2026-07-25", "generatedAt": "2026-07-25T18:45:02+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-07-25T17:50:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-07-24T17:50:00+00:00", "windowHours": 24.0, "currency": "BTC", "methodology": { "source": "Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database", "comparison": "Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart", "rrConvention": "25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV", "bfConvention": "Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV", "greeks": "Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV", "commentary": "Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.", "fixedTenors": "Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.", "smileReconstruction": "Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.", "ultraShortExpiry": "Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.", "causalClaims": "The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts." }, "fitQuality": { "currentObjective": 0.07956201, "previousObjective": 0.11523025, "currentLiveError": 69.12491615, "previousLiveError": 99.39180551 }, "coverage": { "currentListedExpiries": 12, "previousListedExpiries": 12, "comparedListedExpiries": 11, "addedExpiries": [ "29JUL26" ], "removedExpiries": [ "25JUL26" ], "fixedTenors": [ "1W", "2W", "1M", "3M", "6M", "9M", "1Y" ] }, "commentary": { "source": "openai", "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", "headline": "BTC options volatility rises, led by the front end", "executiveSummary": "ATM IV increased across tenors, with the strongest move at 1W, while RR25 shifted toward puts and BF25 was broadly unchanged.", "evidenceIds": [ "front-atm", "back-atm", "rr25", "bf25", "largest-standard-tenor", "headline-tenor-averages" ], "newsSummary": "No news items were collected during the review window; no clear news driver was found.", "marketContextSummary": "The repricing was concentrated in shorter-dated ATM volatility, alongside a modest relative move toward put-side volatility. Longer-dated ATM volatility rose only slightly, while convexity was broadly stable.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [], "takeaways": [ { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.44 volatility points across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.14 volatility points across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.47 volatility points across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.12 volatility points at 1W.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 2.12 } ] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "market-news-collector", "generatedAt": "2026-07-25T18:44:34+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-07-24T17:50:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-07-25T17:50:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "collectorWindow": { "startAt": "2026-07-24T17:50:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-07-25T17:50:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 13, "successfulSources": 13, "failedSources": 0 }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 13, "publishersQueried": 13, "feedEntriesScanned": 315, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 29, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 3, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 6 }, "items": [] }, "facts": [ { "id": "front-atm", "label": "Front end", "text": "Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.44 volatility points across 1W, 2W and 1M." }, { "id": "back-atm", "label": "Long end", "text": "Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.14 volatility points across 6M and 1Y." }, { "id": "rr25", "label": "Skew", "text": "RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.47 volatility points across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "bf25", "label": "Convexity", "text": "BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points across the six headline tenors." }, { "id": "largest-standard-tenor", "label": "Largest standard-tenor move", "text": "The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.12 volatility points at 1W.", "tenor": "1W", "value": 2.12 } ], "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Average change across 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 0.81, "rr25Change": -0.47, "bf25Change": 0.04 }, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "targetExpiry": 1785606603485, "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 35.71, "previous": 33.59, "change": 2.12, "percentChange": 6.31 }, "rr25": { "current": -3.09, "previous": -1.8, "change": -1.29, "percentChange": -71.67 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.99, "previous": 1.82, "change": 0.17, 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