{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-21", "generatedAt": "2026-09-21T18:44:11+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options show one-week relative volatility level dispersion between AVAX and TRX", "standfirst": "Altcoin options retained an unusually broad range of one-week implied-volatility levels at the cutoff, even as the AVAX-to-TRX gap compressed by 3.66 volatility points to 62.46 points. Derivasys data show AVAX remained the richest one-week market at 81.01%, while TRX remained the cheapest at 18.55%. XRP supplied the sharpest one-week ATM IV increase, separating daily repricing from the still-wide level dispersion.", "marketSummary": "The defining altcoin-options development was compression within an exceptionally wide one-week ATM IV range: AVAX stood at 81.01% and TRX at 18.55%, leaving a 62.46-point gap. XRP’s 7.53-point rise and HYPE’s 0.98-point fall produced an 8.51-point dispersion in daily one-week ATM IV changes.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 71.1, "previous": 63.57, "change": 7.53, "percentChange": 11.85 }, "rr25": { "current": 6.11, "previous": 3.57, "change": 2.54, "percentChange": 71.15 }, "bf25": { "current": 6.35, "previous": 5.27, "change": 1.08, "percentChange": 20.49 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 69.03, "previous": 61.35, "change": 7.68, "percentChange": 12.52 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.59, "previous": 4.22, "change": 1.37, "percentChange": 32.46 }, "bf25": { "current": 6.37, "previous": 5.1, "change": 1.27, "percentChange": 24.9 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 67.08, "previous": 59.83, "change": 7.25, "percentChange": 12.12 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.62, "previous": 3.19, "change": 2.43, "percentChange": 76.18 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.88, "previous": 4.85, "change": 1.03, "percentChange": 21.24 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.9, "previous": 57.56, "change": 7.34, "percentChange": 12.75 }, "rr25": { "current": 6.76, "previous": 3.16, "change": 3.6, "percentChange": 113.92 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.86, "previous": 5.02, "change": 0.84, "percentChange": 16.73 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 71.1, "previous": 63.57, "change": 7.53, "percentChange": 11.85 }, "rr25": { "current": 6.11, "previous": 3.57, "change": 2.54, "percentChange": 71.15 }, "bf25": { "current": 6.35, "previous": 5.27, "change": 1.08, "percentChange": 20.49 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "25SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.554, "forward": { "current": 1.51, "previous": 1.41, "change": 0.1, "percentChange": 7.09 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 7.17, "rv24hPercent": null, "rv7dPercent": null, "rv30dPercent": null, "observations": { "24h": 1211, "7d": 9813, "30d": 42933 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 1211, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 84.0972, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 84.0972% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "7d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 9813, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 97.3512, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "30d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 42933, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.3819, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3819% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 71.1, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.5, "previous": 67.48, "change": -0.98, "percentChange": -1.45 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.74, "previous": 3.16, "change": -0.42, "percentChange": -13.29 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.18, "previous": 3.8, "change": 0.38, "percentChange": 10.0 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.41, "previous": 65.4, "change": -0.99, "percentChange": -1.51 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.99, "previous": 4.34, "change": -1.35, "percentChange": -31.11 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.43, "previous": 3.34, "change": 1.09, "percentChange": 32.63 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 63.29, "previous": 63.67, "change": -0.38, "percentChange": -0.6 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.18, "previous": 3.75, "change": 0.43, "percentChange": 11.47 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.04, "previous": 3.07, "change": 0.97, "percentChange": 31.6 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 61.34, "previous": 62.21, "change": -0.87, "percentChange": -1.4 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.46, "previous": 4.39, "change": 0.07, "percentChange": 1.59 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.56, "previous": 3.23, "change": 0.33, "percentChange": 10.22 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.5, "previous": 67.48, "change": -0.98, "percentChange": -1.45 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.74, "previous": 3.16, "change": -0.42, "percentChange": -13.29 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.18, "previous": 3.8, "change": 0.38, "percentChange": 10.0 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "25SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.554, "forward": { "current": 93.05, "previous": 93.1, "change": -0.05, "percentChange": -0.05 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 0.02, "rv24hPercent": null, "rv7dPercent": null, "rv30dPercent": null, "observations": { "24h": 1211, "7d": 9813, "30d": 42931 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 1211, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 84.0972, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 84.0972% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "7d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 9813, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 97.3512, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "30d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 42931, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.3773, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3773% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 66.5, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 81.01, "previous": 81.42, "change": -0.41, "percentChange": -0.5 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.83, "previous": 4.28, "change": 1.55, "percentChange": 36.21 }, "bf25": { "current": 6.01, "previous": 6.72, "change": -0.71, "percentChange": -10.57 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 73.93, "previous": 71.87, "change": 2.06, "percentChange": 2.87 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.45, "previous": 4.4, "change": 1.05, "percentChange": 23.86 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.85, "previous": 6.88, "change": -1.03, "percentChange": -14.97 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 68.87, "previous": 64.11, "change": 4.76, "percentChange": 7.42 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.22, "previous": 4.55, "change": 0.67, "percentChange": 14.73 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.34, "previous": 5.81, "change": -0.47, "percentChange": -8.09 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.41, "previous": 59.88, "change": 4.53, "percentChange": 7.57 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.47, "previous": 3.95, "change": 0.52, "percentChange": 13.16 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.81, "previous": 5.15, "change": -0.34, "percentChange": -6.6 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 81.01, "previous": 81.42, "change": -0.41, "percentChange": -0.5 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.83, "previous": 4.28, "change": 1.55, "percentChange": 36.21 }, "bf25": { "current": 6.01, "previous": 6.72, "change": -0.71, "percentChange": -10.57 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "25SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.554, "forward": { "current": 10.9, "previous": 11.15, "change": -0.25, "percentChange": -2.24 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -2.27, "rv24hPercent": null, "rv7dPercent": null, "rv30dPercent": null, "observations": { "24h": 1211, "7d": 9813, "30d": 42933 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 1211, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 84.0972, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 84.0972% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "7d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 9813, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 97.3512, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "30d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 42933, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.3819, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3819% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 81.01, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.55, "previous": 15.3, "change": 3.25, "percentChange": 21.24 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.02, "previous": -0.28, "change": 3.3, "percentChange": 1178.57 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.5, "previous": 2.4, "change": 0.1, "percentChange": 4.17 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.84, "previous": 17.18, "change": 1.66, "percentChange": 9.66 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.8, "previous": 2.07, "change": 0.73, "percentChange": 35.27 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.68, "previous": 3.09, "change": -0.41, "percentChange": -13.27 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 19.44, "previous": 23.09, "change": -3.65, "percentChange": -15.81 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.91, "previous": 1.56, "change": 1.35, "percentChange": 86.54 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.97, "previous": 4.14, "change": -1.17, "percentChange": -28.26 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 19.15, "previous": 17.39, "change": 1.76, "percentChange": 10.12 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.11, "previous": 1.06, "change": -2.17, "percentChange": -204.72 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.31, "previous": 3.44, "change": -0.13, "percentChange": -3.78 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.55, "previous": 15.3, "change": 3.25, "percentChange": 21.24 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.02, "previous": -0.28, "change": 3.3, "percentChange": 1178.57 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.5, "previous": 2.4, "change": 0.1, "percentChange": 4.17 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "25SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.554, "forward": { "current": 0.34, "previous": 0.34, "change": 0.0, "percentChange": 0.0 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 0.17, "rv24hPercent": null, "rv7dPercent": null, "rv30dPercent": null, "observations": { "24h": 1211, "7d": 9813, "30d": 42933 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 1211, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 84.0972, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 84.0972% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "7d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 9813, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 97.3512, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." }, "30d": { "status": "unavailable", "observedReturns": 42933, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.3819, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 228, "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3819% with a largest gap of 228 minutes." } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 18.55, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "returnMetric": { "key": "spotPerformance24h", "source": "spotMove24hPercent", "label": "24h spot-index return", "unit": "percent" }, "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 81.01, "lowest": 18.55, "spread": 62.46, "highestToLowestRatio": 4.3671, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 81.01, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 71.1 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 66.5 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 81.01 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.55 } ], "previousSpread": 66.12, "spreadChange": -3.66, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 7.53, "lowest": -0.98, "spread": 8.51, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 7.53, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.53 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.98 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.41 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.25 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 6.11, "lowest": 2.74, "spread": 3.37, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.2299, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 6.11, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 6.11 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.74 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 5.83 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.02 } ], "previousSpread": 4.56, "spreadChange": -1.19, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 3.3, "lowest": -0.42, "spread": 3.72, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.3, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.54 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.42 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.55 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.3 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "XRP", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": 7.53 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 7.17, "lowest": -2.27, "spread": 9.44, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 7.17, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.17 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.02 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -2.27 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.17 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 81.01, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 71.1, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 66.5, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.55, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.53, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.25, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.41, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.98, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.53, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.25, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.98, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.41, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 6.11, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 5.83, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.02, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.74, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": -1 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.74, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.02, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 5.83, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": 6.11, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": -1 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.17, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.17, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.02, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -2.27, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.53, "groupMedian": 1.42, "distanceFromMedian": 6.11 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.55, "groupMedian": 68.8, "distanceFromMedian": -50.25 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "XRP", "value": 6.11, "groupMedian": 4.42, "distanceFromMedian": 1.69 } ], "relativeValueObservation": null, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 23, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": 100.0, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": 81.8, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": 39.1, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": null }, "correlations": { "metric": "spotMove24hPercent", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": 0.5469, "observations": 11 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": 0.205, "observations": 12 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": 0.3465, "observations": 12 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": 0.4459, "observations": 11 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": 0.0603, "observations": 11 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": 0.2862, "observations": 12 } ], "availabilityNote": null }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 7.53, "lowest": -0.98, "spread": 8.51, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 7.53, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.53 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.98 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.41 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.25 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 81.01, "lowest": 18.55, "spread": 62.46, "highestToLowestRatio": 4.3671, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 81.01, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 71.1 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 66.5 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 81.01 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.55 } ], "previousSpread": 66.12, "spreadChange": -3.66, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 6.11, "lowest": 2.74, "spread": 3.37, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.2299, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 6.11, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 6.11 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.74 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 5.83 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.02 } ], "previousSpread": 4.56, "spreadChange": -1.19, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-divergence", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, { "id": "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 7.17, "lowest": -2.27, "spread": 9.44, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 7.17, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 7.17 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.02 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -2.27 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.17 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "summary": "No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.", "events": [], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search", "section_heading": "No sufficiently relevant context identified" }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 20, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 2.35, "rr25Change": 1.74, "bf25Change": 0.21 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "Altcoin one-week volatility remains dispersed as the level gap compresses", "executiveSummary": "The defining altcoin-options development was compression within an exceptionally wide one-week ATM IV range: AVAX stood at 81.01% and TRX at 18.55%, leaving a 62.46-point gap. XRP’s 7.53-point rise and HYPE’s 0.98-point fall produced an 8.51-point dispersion in daily one-week ATM IV changes.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "News check: no qualifying in-window context was retained for the cross-altcoin options comparison.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item supports an assessment of a driver for the observed altcoin-options dispersion.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "AVAX", "GLOBAL", "HYPE", "MACRO", "TRX", "XRP" ], "completedScopes": [ "AVAX", "GLOBAL", "HYPE", "MACRO", "TRX", "XRP" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "AVAX" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 0, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "e88f3a0a4478e2efd693ede0f6bdfc94bd69378c3e7a3cdc2473dfc26ed1a327" } ] }, { "arguments": { "assets": [ "TRX" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 0, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "e88f3a0a4478e2efd693ede0f6bdfc94bd69378c3e7a3cdc2473dfc26ed1a327" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTY6Mjg6MzcuMDQzODk4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhmYjkyYzQ0LTk1MDMtNGU5MC04YmNmLTcxNWU2ODFjMWQwYiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "fbc5f31af503245beeb5f601f912931a6d046c4593a331667459787452775bc4" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTY6Mjg6MzcuMDQzODk4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhmYjkyYzQ0LTk1MDMtNGU5MC04YmNmLTcxNWU2ODFjMWQwYiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTM6NTg6MDcuNjMzNTU1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6Ijk2NjE1OTBlLTJkY2MtNGZjZi05YzUzLTRjYTU5Yzc0YmVlNyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "6bf21d89b6cf770bef1f410f1f92bfea29d49e028297234cdf036857e180f755" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTM6NTg6MDcuNjMzNTU1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6Ijk2NjE1OTBlLTJkY2MtNGZjZi05YzUzLTRjYTU5Yzc0YmVlNyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTE6MzY6MzYuNzkwNzc4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjVlODI5ODI5LTdlNjEtNGUxMC05NmU2LTViOWEzZTE5MTg2YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "dd55d956e794ee2a46e709102884ad58cd04de1069783c2df37622f7470e3942" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTE6MzY6MzYuNzkwNzc4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjVlODI5ODI5LTdlNjEtNGUxMC05NmU2LTViOWEzZTE5MTg2YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDk6MjA6NDYuNTg5Mjc5KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhiZGNkMGVmLTFjNWEtNDQwNS05MGUzLWIwMWJlNjFiNTQ3YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "d9fad556528d9deab358265855383e0cb0d6369c9fe03cca77cce4999bd0e528" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDk6MjA6NDYuNTg5Mjc5KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhiZGNkMGVmLTFjNWEtNDQwNS05MGUzLWIwMWJlNjFiNTQ3YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDY6MDA6MTAuMjgzOTY0KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6ImFmNDY2OTkyLTFkZTUtNGI0Yy1iNDI4LTBlOWFlZjAwYjdkMCIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "e1186901f7e058103580b0221293e464441b4dcbf6e42cd741c9e19ea414e4be" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDY6MDA6MTAuMjgzOTY0KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6ImFmNDY2OTkyLTFkZTUtNGI0Yy1iNDI4LTBlOWFlZjAwYjdkMCIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMjM6NTU6MjcuNDc3NjQ1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjcyZmFhODIwLWU1NTQtNDhmNi05OWJkLTE0ODBkOGNhNzQ5MyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "c84532becf92e12dfab91e9dd45c49cd9eebccb026b96e610dc0ac80bdb861b2" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMjM6NTU6MjcuNDc3NjQ1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjcyZmFhODIwLWU1NTQtNDhmNi05OWJkLTE0ODBkOGNhNzQ5MyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMTk6MTU6MTMuNTM3NDMzKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjZjNGUwN2ZhLTQxZDEtNDE1Ni1iOGFjLTE2N2Q5MjcyNTQ4YSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "232b74a835bedecdb96657f919d10ac5097eba2099b6ae2f8f12165b9ffd1045" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMTk6MTU6MTMuNTM3NDMzKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjZjNGUwN2ZhLTQxZDEtNDE1Ni1iOGFjLTE2N2Q5MjcyNTQ4YSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 8, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "4d085c3dfcfd8c66291d43967ee35eb588d43ff72128f6a0394e03045b2545c3" } ] }, { "arguments": { "assets": [ "HYPE" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 1, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "c2b4f9888b055880dd3ffd15472ab2caae65e2bdd6f8f5a18cf518cab5acf125" } ] }, { "arguments": { "assets": [ "XRP" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 0, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "e88f3a0a4478e2efd693ede0f6bdfc94bd69378c3e7a3cdc2473dfc26ed1a327" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-21T18:42:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0, "min_importance": 0, "start": "2026-09-20T18:42:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTY6Mjg6MzcuMDQzODk4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhmYjkyYzQ0LTk1MDMtNGU5MC04YmNmLTcxNWU2ODFjMWQwYiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "fbc5f31af503245beeb5f601f912931a6d046c4593a331667459787452775bc4" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTY6Mjg6MzcuMDQzODk4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhmYjkyYzQ0LTk1MDMtNGU5MC04YmNmLTcxNWU2ODFjMWQwYiIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTM6NTg6MDcuNjMzNTU1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6Ijk2NjE1OTBlLTJkY2MtNGZjZi05YzUzLTRjYTU5Yzc0YmVlNyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "6bf21d89b6cf770bef1f410f1f92bfea29d49e028297234cdf036857e180f755" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTM6NTg6MDcuNjMzNTU1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6Ijk2NjE1OTBlLTJkY2MtNGZjZi05YzUzLTRjYTU5Yzc0YmVlNyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTE6MzY6MzYuNzkwNzc4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjVlODI5ODI5LTdlNjEtNGUxMC05NmU2LTViOWEzZTE5MTg2YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "dd55d956e794ee2a46e709102884ad58cd04de1069783c2df37622f7470e3942" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMTE6MzY6MzYuNzkwNzc4KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjVlODI5ODI5LTdlNjEtNGUxMC05NmU2LTViOWEzZTE5MTg2YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDk6MjA6NDYuNTg5Mjc5KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhiZGNkMGVmLTFjNWEtNDQwNS05MGUzLWIwMWJlNjFiNTQ3YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "d9fad556528d9deab358265855383e0cb0d6369c9fe03cca77cce4999bd0e528" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDk6MjA6NDYuNTg5Mjc5KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjhiZGNkMGVmLTFjNWEtNDQwNS05MGUzLWIwMWJlNjFiNTQ3YyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDY6MDA6MTAuMjgzOTY0KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6ImFmNDY2OTkyLTFkZTUtNGI0Yy1iNDI4LTBlOWFlZjAwYjdkMCIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "e1186901f7e058103580b0221293e464441b4dcbf6e42cd741c9e19ea414e4be" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjFUMDY6MDA6MTAuMjgzOTY0KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6ImFmNDY2OTkyLTFkZTUtNGI0Yy1iNDI4LTBlOWFlZjAwYjdkMCIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMjM6NTU6MjcuNDc3NjQ1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjcyZmFhODIwLWU1NTQtNDhmNi05OWJkLTE0ODBkOGNhNzQ5MyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "c84532becf92e12dfab91e9dd45c49cd9eebccb026b96e610dc0ac80bdb861b2" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMjM6NTU6MjcuNDc3NjQ1KzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjcyZmFhODIwLWU1NTQtNDhmNi05OWJkLTE0ODBkOGNhNzQ5MyIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 50, "hasMore": true, "nextCursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMTk6MTU6MTMuNTM3NDMzKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjZjNGUwN2ZhLTQxZDEtNDE1Ni1iOGFjLTE2N2Q5MjcyNTQ4YSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "resultSha256": "232b74a835bedecdb96657f919d10ac5097eba2099b6ae2f8f12165b9ffd1045" }, { "cursor": "eyJhdCI6IjIwMjYtMDktMjBUMTk6MTU6MTMuNTM3NDMzKzAwOjAwIiwiZmlsdGVycyI6ImVhNWM3OTUxYzZlYzE2NmUiLCJpZCI6IjZjNGUwN2ZhLTQxZDEtNDE1Ni1iOGFjLTE2N2Q5MjcyNTQ4YSIsInNvcnQiOiJmaXJzdF9zZWVuX2F0OmRlc2MsZXZlbnRfaWQ6ZGVzYyIsInYiOjF9", "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 8, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "4d085c3dfcfd8c66291d43967ee35eb588d43ff72128f6a0394e03045b2545c3" } ] } ], "upstreamIngestionHealth": "not-exposed" }, "generatedAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-20T18:42:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-21T18:42:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 18, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 1, "publishersRepresented": 1, "discoveryEventsScanned": 1140, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 1, "feedEntriesScanned": 7, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 7, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 1, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "candidateAudit": [ { "eventId": "8239be5f-867d-4c94-94a3-c038ff264ca9", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "c7007b2d-2313-45ec-9539-92a1b94ef328", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "298cf57d-cb84-4f9b-ae2d-9f29d9a11f12", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "8bdcd0ef-1c5a-4405-90e3-b01be61b547c", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "5e829829-7e61-4e10-96e6-5b9a3e19186c", "selected": false, "eligible": true, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": true, "decision": "editorial-selection" }, { "eventId": "39d8d1b3-70a8-4672-aa62-6d5a3e7a57f3", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "c1dd7af1-d958-4408-b067-7916b6cd3722", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" } ], "planRationale": "No in-window event was sufficiently relevant to the cross-alt options comparison: Hyperliquid’s BTC-VIX perpetual launch is HYPE-specific, while no XRP, AVAX or TRX events were returned. No causal link is asserted." }, "items": [] }, "newsStatus": "no-relevant-catalyst", "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-21-20260921T184240Z/editorial/dossier.json" }