{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-20", "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T16:32:37+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options volatility dispersion widens as AVAX pulls away from TRX", "standfirst": "Altcoin one-week ATM IV dispersion widened 13.25 volatility points to 62.19 points, an observed high, as AVAX one-week ATM IV rose 10.37 points to 77.42% while TRX one-week ATM IV fell 2.88 points to 15.23%. The resulting gap makes the complex markedly less uniform, with AVAX retaining the highest implied-volatility level and TRX the lowest.", "marketSummary": "AVAX drove a sharp cross-sectional split at the cutoff: AVAX one-week ATM IV rose 10.37 volatility points to 77.42%, while TRX one-week ATM IV fell 2.88 volatility points to 15.23%. Derivasys data put the resulting 62.19-point one-week ATM IV level spread at an observed high.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 61.88, "previous": 60.29, "change": 1.59, "percentChange": 2.64 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.53, "previous": 0.54, "change": 4.99, "percentChange": 924.07 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.81, "previous": 5.3, "change": -0.49, "percentChange": -9.25 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 59.75, "previous": 59.25, "change": 0.5, "percentChange": 0.84 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.96, "previous": 0.97, "change": 3.99, "percentChange": 411.34 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.84, "previous": 5.21, "change": -0.37, "percentChange": -7.1 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 58.48, "previous": 58.17, "change": 0.31, "percentChange": 0.53 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.59, "previous": 1.95, "change": 0.64, "percentChange": 32.82 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.75, "previous": 4.71, "change": 0.04, "percentChange": 0.85 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.92, "previous": 57.13, "change": -0.21, "percentChange": -0.37 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.93, "previous": 3.01, "change": -0.08, "percentChange": -2.66 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.11, "previous": 5.07, "change": 0.04, "percentChange": 0.79 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 61.88, "previous": 60.29, "change": 1.59, "percentChange": 2.64 }, "rr25": { "current": 5.53, "previous": 0.54, "change": 4.99, "percentChange": 924.07 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.81, "previous": 5.3, "change": -0.49, "percentChange": -9.25 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "25SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 4.646, "forward": { "current": 1.4, "previous": 1.44, "change": -0.04, "percentChange": -2.78 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -2.11, "rv24hPercent": 57.91, "rv7dPercent": 80.68, "rv30dPercent": 90.55, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10042, "30d": 43162 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 10042, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 99.623, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 43162, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.912, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 61.88, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -18.8, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 3.97, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -28.67 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 67.36, "previous": 65.21, "change": 2.15, "percentChange": 3.3 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.06, "previous": 6.65, "change": -4.59, "percentChange": -69.02 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.6, "previous": 5.19, "change": -1.59, "percentChange": -30.64 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.25, "previous": 64.65, "change": 0.6, "percentChange": 0.93 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.62, "previous": 4.91, "change": -1.29, "percentChange": -26.27 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.44, "previous": 3.61, "change": -0.17, "percentChange": -4.71 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 63.43, "previous": 63.42, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 0.02 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.56, "previous": 4.12, "change": -0.56, "percentChange": -13.59 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.14, "previous": 3.22, "change": -0.08, "percentChange": -2.48 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 61.97, "previous": 62.41, "change": -0.44, "percentChange": -0.71 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.88, "previous": 4.51, "change": 0.37, "percentChange": 8.2 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.52, "previous": 3.09, "change": 0.43, "percentChange": 13.92 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; 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canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.07, "rv24hPercent": 58.97, "rv7dPercent": 76.48, "rv30dPercent": 83.22, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10040, "30d": 43160 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 10040, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 99.6032, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 43160, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.9074, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 67.36, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -9.12, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 8.39, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -15.86 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 77.42, "previous": 67.05, "change": 10.37, "percentChange": 15.47 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.98, "previous": 5.7, "change": -3.72, "percentChange": -65.26 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.44, "previous": 4.4, "change": -0.96, "percentChange": -21.82 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 68.36, "previous": 60.46, "change": 7.9, "percentChange": 13.07 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.18, "previous": 3.84, "change": -0.66, "percentChange": -17.19 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.64, "previous": 4.86, "change": 0.78, "percentChange": 16.05 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 62.8, "previous": 58.1, "change": 4.7, "percentChange": 8.09 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.06, "previous": 3.57, "change": -0.51, "percentChange": -14.29 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.4, "previous": 5.19, "change": -0.79, "percentChange": -15.22 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 58.84, "previous": 57.25, "change": 1.59, "percentChange": 2.78 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.84, "previous": 2.47, "change": 0.37, "percentChange": 14.98 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.2, "previous": 4.49, "change": 0.71, "percentChange": 15.81 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; 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canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 16.09, "rv24hPercent": 195.71, "rv7dPercent": 102.7, "rv30dPercent": 77.6, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10042, "30d": 43162 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 10042, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 99.623, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 43162, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.912, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps." }, "spotUnavailableReason": null, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 77.42, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -25.28, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -118.29, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -0.18 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 15.23, "previous": 18.11, "change": -2.88, "percentChange": -15.9 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.36, "previous": 0.37, "change": -0.73, "percentChange": -197.3 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.38, "previous": 2.03, "change": 0.35, "percentChange": 17.24 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 17.04, "previous": 18.93, "change": -1.89, "percentChange": -9.98 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.08, "previous": 0.54, "change": 1.54, "percentChange": 285.19 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.06, "previous": 1.98, "change": 1.08, "percentChange": 54.55 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 23.03, "previous": 19.91, "change": 3.12, "percentChange": 15.67 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.56, "previous": 0.66, "change": 0.9, "percentChange": 136.36 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.16, "previous": 2.04, "change": 2.12, "percentChange": 103.92 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 17.39, "previous": 20.58, "change": -3.19, "percentChange": -15.5 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.06, "previous": 0.11, "change": 0.95, "percentChange": 863.64 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.42, "previous": 2.41, "change": 1.01, "percentChange": 41.91 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 15.23, "previous": 18.11, "change": -2.88, "percentChange": -15.9 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.36, "previous": 0.37, "change": -0.73, "percentChange": -197.3 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.38, "previous": 2.03, "change": 0.35, "percentChange": 17.24 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "25SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 4.646, "forward": { "current": 0.34, "previous": 0.34, "change": 0.0, "percentChange": 0.0 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-20T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-19T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 1.67, "rv24hPercent": 18.4, "rv7dPercent": 14.4, "rv30dPercent": 17.81, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10042, "30d": 43162 }, "coverage": { "24h": { "status": "complete", "observedReturns": 1440, "expectedReturns": 1440, "coveragePercent": 100.0, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0, "unavailableReason": null }, "7d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 10042, "expectedReturns": 10080, "coveragePercent": 99.623, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null }, "30d": { "status": "partial", "observedReturns": 43162, "expectedReturns": 43200, "coveragePercent": 99.912, "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37, "unavailableReason": null } }, "coveragePolicy": { "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1", "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5, "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60, "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. 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true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": null, "minimumImportance": null, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": null, "minimumMediaReliability": 0.6 }, "candidateAudit": [ { "eventId": "778fac37-92fe-4da0-b881-d566c653f62a", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": true, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" }, { "eventId": "21a1a35c-eb98-4f71-b60f-1d9ee333cff3", "selected": false, "eligible": false, "checks": { "verifiedSourceMetadata": true, "contentKind": true, "status": true }, "inWindow": false, "reportRelevant": false, "decision": "ineligible" } ], "planRationale": "Complete constituent and global discovery found no in-window, source-eligible item explicitly relevant to XRP, HYPE, AVAX, or TRX. The strongest assessed news items were either unrelated, broadly crypto-general, or lacked qualifying relevance; no quota was filled." }, "items": [] }, "newsStatus": "no-relevant-catalyst", "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-20-20260920T163009Z/editorial/dossier.json" }