{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-14", "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T16:31:23+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options reprice unevenly as XRP leads one-week volatility higher", "standfirst": "Altcoin one-week ATM IV rose across the complex, but the adjustment was far from uniform: XRP increased 5.63 volatility points to 60.01%, versus a 1.44-point rise to 21.46% for TRX. That 4.19-point change range makes XRP the clear front-end leader, while HYPE retained the highest one-week ATM IV level at 68.65%.", "marketSummary": "XRP’s one-week ATM IV rose 5.63 volatility points to 60.01%, creating a 4.19-point gap to TRX’s 1.44-point increase. The reading points to uneven front-end repricing across the altcoin complex rather than a uniform move.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 60.01, "previous": 54.38, "change": 5.63, "percentChange": 10.35 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.99, "previous": 1.03, "change": 2.96, "percentChange": 287.38 }, "bf25": { "current": 7.37, "previous": 3.61, "change": 3.76, "percentChange": 104.16 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 57.95, "previous": 53.18, "change": 4.77, "percentChange": 8.97 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.03, "previous": 1.14, "change": 1.89, "percentChange": 165.79 }, "bf25": { "current": 6.59, "previous": 3.42, "change": 3.17, "percentChange": 92.69 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.89, "previous": 52.83, "change": 3.06, "percentChange": 5.79 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.82, "previous": 1.64, "change": 1.18, "percentChange": 71.95 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.96, "previous": 3.44, "change": 1.52, "percentChange": 44.19 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.03, "previous": 52.34, "change": 1.69, "percentChange": 3.23 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.63, "previous": 0.91, "change": 1.72, "percentChange": 189.01 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.29, "previous": 3.29, "change": 1.0, "percentChange": 30.4 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 60.01, "previous": 54.38, "change": 5.63, "percentChange": 10.35 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.99, "previous": 1.03, "change": 2.96, "percentChange": 287.38 }, "bf25": { "current": 7.37, "previous": 3.61, "change": 3.76, "percentChange": 104.16 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "18SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.646, "forward": { "current": 1.41, "previous": 1.35, "change": 0.06, "percentChange": 4.44 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 4.84, "rv24hPercent": 61.46, "rv7dPercent": 56.1, "rv30dPercent": 90.45, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 60.01, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 3.91, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -1.45, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -30.44 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 68.65, "previous": 66.37, "change": 2.28, "percentChange": 3.44 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.49, "previous": 0.19, "change": 3.3, "percentChange": 1736.84 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.51, "previous": 4.11, "change": 0.4, "percentChange": 9.73 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.0, "previous": 64.68, "change": 1.32, "percentChange": 2.04 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.22, "previous": 0.86, "change": 3.36, "percentChange": 390.7 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.56, "previous": 4.14, "change": 0.42, "percentChange": 10.14 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 63.75, "previous": 62.95, "change": 0.8, "percentChange": 1.27 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.76, "previous": 1.71, "change": 2.05, "percentChange": 119.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.62, "previous": 4.19, "change": 0.43, "percentChange": 10.26 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 62.95, "previous": 59.13, "change": 3.82, "percentChange": 6.46 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.88, "previous": 3.3, "change": 0.58, "percentChange": 17.58 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.7, "previous": 6.74, "change": -3.04, "percentChange": -45.1 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 68.65, "previous": 66.37, "change": 2.28, "percentChange": 3.44 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.49, "previous": 0.19, "change": 3.3, "percentChange": 1736.84 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.51, "previous": 4.11, "change": 0.4, "percentChange": 9.73 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "18SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.646, "forward": { "current": 80.55, "previous": 78.47, "change": 2.08, "percentChange": 2.65 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical HYPE index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 one-minute returns, found 1438 (99.8611% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded" }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 60.28, "previous": 58.69, "change": 1.59, "percentChange": 2.71 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.01, "previous": 2.98, "change": -0.97, "percentChange": -32.55 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.69, "previous": 3.92, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -5.87 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 58.8, "previous": 57.53, "change": 1.27, "percentChange": 2.21 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.19, "previous": 1.94, "change": 0.25, "percentChange": 12.89 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.95, "previous": 3.68, "change": 0.27, "percentChange": 7.34 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 58.12, "previous": 56.88, "change": 1.24, "percentChange": 2.18 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.59, "previous": 2.39, "change": 0.2, "percentChange": 8.37 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.25, "previous": 3.87, "change": 0.38, "percentChange": 9.82 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 57.44, "previous": 56.32, "change": 1.12, "percentChange": 1.99 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.81, "previous": 2.09, "change": -0.28, "percentChange": -13.4 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.15, "previous": 3.77, "change": 0.38, "percentChange": 10.08 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 60.28, "previous": 58.69, "change": 1.59, "percentChange": 2.71 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.01, "previous": 2.98, "change": -0.97, "percentChange": -32.55 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.69, "previous": 3.92, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -5.87 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "18SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.646, "forward": { "current": 7.51, "previous": 7.38, "change": 0.13, "percentChange": 1.76 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 1.83, "rv24hPercent": 56.76, "rv7dPercent": 58.21, "rv30dPercent": 66.16, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 60.28, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 2.07, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 3.52, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.88 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 5, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.46, "previous": 20.02, "change": 1.44, "percentChange": 7.19 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.66, "previous": 0.34, "change": -1.0, "percentChange": -294.12 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.8, "previous": 1.68, "change": 0.12, "percentChange": 7.14 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.72, "previous": 20.62, "change": 1.1, "percentChange": 5.33 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.85, "previous": -0.1, "change": -0.75, "percentChange": -750.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.93, "previous": 1.8, "change": 0.13, "percentChange": 7.22 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.22, "previous": 21.56, "change": 0.66, "percentChange": 3.06 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.13, "previous": -0.77, "change": -0.36, "percentChange": -46.75 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.09, "previous": 2.01, "change": 0.08, "percentChange": 3.98 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.6, "previous": 22.25, "change": 0.35, "percentChange": 1.57 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.33, "previous": -0.17, "change": -0.16, "percentChange": -94.12 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.45, "previous": 2.55, "change": -0.1, "percentChange": -3.92 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.46, "previous": 20.02, "change": 1.44, "percentChange": 7.19 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.66, "previous": 0.34, "change": -1.0, "percentChange": -294.12 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.8, "previous": 1.68, "change": 0.12, "percentChange": 7.14 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "18SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.646, "forward": { "current": 0.34, "previous": 0.34, "change": 0.0, "percentChange": 0.0 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.15, "rv24hPercent": 14.91, "rv7dPercent": 15.35, "rv30dPercent": 18.07, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 21.46, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 6.11, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 6.55, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 3.39 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "returnMetric": { "key": "spotPerformance24h", "source": "spotMove24hPercent", "label": "24h spot-index return", "unit": "percent" }, "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 68.65, "lowest": 21.46, "spread": 47.19, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.199, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 68.65, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 60.01 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 68.65 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 60.28 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.46 } ], "previousSpread": 46.35, "spreadChange": 0.84, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 5.63, "lowest": 1.44, "spread": 4.19, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.9097, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 5.63, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 5.63 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.28 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.59 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 1.44 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.99, "lowest": -0.66, "spread": 4.65, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.99, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.99 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.49 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.01 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.66 } ], "previousSpread": 2.79, "spreadChange": 1.86, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.3, "lowest": -1.0, "spread": 4.3, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.3, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.96 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.3 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.97 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.0 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "XRP", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": 5.63 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 6.11, "lowest": 2.07, "spread": 4.04, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9517, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 6.11, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.91 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.07 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 6.11 } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 4.84, "lowest": -0.15, "spread": 4.99, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 4.84, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 4.84 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.83 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.15 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 68.65, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 60.28, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 60.01, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.46, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 5.63, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.28, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.59, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 1.44, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 5.63, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.28, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.59, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 1.44, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 6.11, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.91, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.07, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.99, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.49, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.01, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -2 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.66, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": -1 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.66, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.01, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.49, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -2 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.99, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": -1 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 4.84, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.83, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.15, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "XRP", "value": 5.63, "groupMedian": 1.94, "distanceFromMedian": 3.69 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.46, "groupMedian": 60.14, "distanceFromMedian": -38.68 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.66, "groupMedian": 2.75, "distanceFromMedian": -3.41 }, { "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility", "asset": "TRX", "value": 6.11, "groupMedian": 3.91, "distanceFromMedian": 2.2 } ], "relativeValueObservation": { "richestAsset": "TRX", "cheapestAsset": "AVAX", "spread": 4.04, "metric": "1W ATM IV minus 7D realised volatility", "interpretation": "TRX screens richest and AVAX cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility, with a 4.04-point cross-sectional range." }, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 16, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Cross-sectional percentiles require 20 prior aligned reports." }, "correlations": { "metric": "spotMove24hPercent", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 } ], "availabilityNote": "Pair correlations require 10 aligned prior reports." }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 5.63, "lowest": 1.44, "spread": 4.19, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.9097, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 5.63, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 5.63 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.28 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.59 }, { "asset": "TRX", 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"XRP", "value": 3.91 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.07 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 6.11 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 4.84, "lowest": -0.15, "spread": 4.99, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 4.84, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 4.84 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 1.83 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.15 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant context identified", "summary": "No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.", "events": [], "coverage_status": "healthy", "coverage_basis": "monitored-source-search", "section_heading": "No sufficiently relevant context identified" }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 20, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 2.73, "rr25Change": 1.07, "bf25Change": 1.01 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "XRP leads an uneven rise in altcoin volatility", "executiveSummary": "XRP’s one-week ATM IV rose 5.63 volatility points to 60.01%, creating a 4.19-point gap to TRX’s 1.44-point increase. The reading points to uneven front-end repricing across the altcoin complex rather than a uniform move.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "News check: no qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this comparison.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item offers a supported explanation for the relative options moves.", "marketContext": [ { "title": "No qualifying contextual catalyst", "explanation": "No event met the relevance threshold for the cross-sectional volatility divergence, so no causal link is assessed.", "relationship": "no-clear-link", "confidence": "low", "surface_evidence_ids": [ "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion" ], "news_evidence_ids": [] } ], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "collection": { "schemaVersion": 1, "basis": "monitored-source-search", "status": "complete", "requiredScopes": [ "AVAX", "HYPE", "MACRO", "TRX", "XRP" ], "completedScopes": [ "AVAX", "HYPE", "MACRO", "TRX", "XRP" ], "missingScopes": [], "queries": [ { "arguments": { "assets": [ "TRX" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-14T16:30:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0.65, "min_importance": 0.5, "start": "2026-09-13T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 0, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "e88f3a0a4478e2efd693ede0f6bdfc94bd69378c3e7a3cdc2473dfc26ed1a327" } ] }, { "arguments": { "assets": [ "HYPE" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-14T16:30:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0.65, "min_importance": 0.5, "start": "2026-09-13T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 1, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "919c7ab3ea07bfe2d0c8e769be718274a6a68486180843361a7b6ea343c3bfc6" } ] }, { "arguments": { "assets": [ "XRP" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-14T16:30:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0.65, "min_importance": 0.5, "start": "2026-09-13T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 0, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "e88f3a0a4478e2efd693ede0f6bdfc94bd69378c3e7a3cdc2473dfc26ed1a327" } ] }, { "arguments": { "assets": [ "AVAX" ], "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-14T16:30:00Z", "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0.65, "min_importance": 0.5, "start": "2026-09-13T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 0, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "e88f3a0a4478e2efd693ede0f6bdfc94bd69378c3e7a3cdc2473dfc26ed1a327" } ] }, { "arguments": { "content_kinds": [ "catalyst", "reporting" ], "end": "2026-09-14T16:30:00Z", "event_types": [ "macro_release", "central_bank_decision", "regulatory_action", "legislation" ], "limit": 50, "min_confidence": 0.65, "min_importance": 0.5, "start": "2026-09-13T16:30:00Z", "statuses": [ "breaking", "developing", "confirmed" ] }, "complete": true, "pages": [ { "cursor": null, "status": "succeeded", "returnedCount": 2, "hasMore": false, "nextCursor": null, "resultSha256": "2ffd1411bb94dfd1137998518d6d212966f1b7a0b54474581183036395675bf5" } ] } ], "upstreamIngestionHealth": "not-exposed" }, "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 3, "publishersRepresented": 3, "discoveryEventsScanned": 3, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 3, "feedEntriesScanned": 3, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 3, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 3, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": 0.65, "minimumImportance": 0.5, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25 } }, "items": [] }, "newsStatus": "no-relevant-catalyst", "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-14-20260914T163012Z/editorial/dossier.json" }