{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-09", "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T16:35:07+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options: TRX leads XRP in implied-versus-realised volatility", "standfirst": "Altcoin options showed their clearest relative-value split in the one-week implied-versus-realised measure. TRX one-week ATM IV stood 7.72 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while XRP one-week ATM IV sat 7.74 points below its realised reading, leaving a 15.46-point range. DerivaSys data also showed XRP as the sole one-week volatility riser while HYPE posted the largest decline.", "marketSummary": "The altcoin complex was distinguished by a 15.46-volatility-point spread between TRX and XRP in one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility. That comparison places TRX at the rich end and XRP at the cheap end of the measured group.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 6, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.16, "previous": 53.2, "change": 0.96, "percentChange": 1.8 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.52, "previous": 3.24, "change": -0.72, "percentChange": -22.22 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.86, "previous": 2.72, "change": 0.14, "percentChange": 5.15 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.38, "previous": 53.36, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 0.04 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.27, "previous": 2.6, "change": -0.33, "percentChange": -12.69 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.25, "previous": 3.08, "change": 0.17, "percentChange": 5.52 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 51.64, "previous": 52.07, "change": -0.43, "percentChange": -0.83 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.7, "previous": 2.55, "change": 0.15, "percentChange": 5.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.3, "previous": 3.21, "change": 0.09, "percentChange": 2.8 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 50.51, "previous": 50.42, "change": 0.09, "percentChange": 0.18 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.99, "previous": 3.04, "change": -0.05, "percentChange": -1.64 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.27, "previous": 3.44, "change": -0.17, "percentChange": -4.94 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.16, "previous": 53.2, "change": 0.96, "percentChange": 1.8 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.52, "previous": 3.24, "change": -0.72, "percentChange": -22.22 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.86, "previous": 2.72, "change": 0.14, "percentChange": 5.15 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "18SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 8.646, "forward": { "current": 1.42, "previous": 1.43, "change": -0.01, "percentChange": -0.7 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": 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{ "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are 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null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.5, "previous": 57.65, "change": -1.15, "percentChange": -1.99 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.69, "previous": 2.44, "change": 0.25, "percentChange": 10.25 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.57, "previous": 3.68, "change": -0.11, "percentChange": -2.99 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "18SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 8.646, "forward": { "current": 7.92, "previous": 8.03, "change": -0.11, "percentChange": -1.37 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": -1.24, "rv24hPercent": 54.2, "rv7dPercent": 55.65, "rv30dPercent": 65.46, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 56.5, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 0.85, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 2.3, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -8.96 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", 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-0.14 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.26, "previous": 0.21, "change": 0.05, "percentChange": 23.81 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.94, "previous": 1.97, "change": -0.03, "percentChange": -1.52 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.56, "previous": 22.54, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 0.09 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.23, "previous": 0.11, "change": -0.34, "percentChange": -309.09 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.05, "previous": 2.03, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 0.99 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.75, "previous": 21.98, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -1.05 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.41, "previous": 0.05, "change": -0.46, "percentChange": -920.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.87, "previous": 1.75, "change": 0.12, "percentChange": 6.86 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "18SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 8.646, "forward": { "current": 0.34, "previous": 0.34, "change": 0.0, "percentChange": 0.0 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMetric": "spot-index return", "spotUnit": "percent", "spotMove24hPercent": 0.19, "rv24hPercent": 14.29, "rv7dPercent": 14.03, "rv30dPercent": 17.92, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 21.75, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 7.72, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 7.46, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 3.83 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "returnMetric": { "key": "spotPerformance24h", "source": "spotMove24hPercent", "label": "24h spot-index return", "unit": "percent" }, "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 63.1, "lowest": 21.75, "spread": 41.35, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9011, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 63.1, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.16 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 63.1 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 56.5 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.75 } ], "previousSpread": 42.59, "spreadChange": -1.24, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 0.96, "lowest": -1.47, "spread": 2.43, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -1.47, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.96 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.47 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.15 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.23 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 2.69, "lowest": -0.41, "spread": 3.1, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 2.69, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.52 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.67 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.69 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.41 } ], "previousSpread": 3.19, "spreadChange": -0.09, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 0.29, "lowest": -0.72, "spread": 1.01, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -0.72, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.72 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.29 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.25 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.46 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "HYPE", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": -1.47 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 7.72, "lowest": -7.74, "spread": 15.46, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -7.74, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -7.74 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.27 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.85 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.72 } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 1.7, "lowest": -1.24, "spread": 2.94, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 1.7, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.55 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.7 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.24 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.19 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 63.1, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 56.5, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.16, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.75, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.96, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.23, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.15, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.47, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.47, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.15, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.96, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.23, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.72, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.27, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.85, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -7.74, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.69, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.67, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.52, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -2 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.41, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.41, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.52, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.67, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.69, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": -1 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.7, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.19, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.55, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.24, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.96, "groupMedian": -0.69, "distanceFromMedian": 1.65 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.75, "groupMedian": 55.33, "distanceFromMedian": -33.58 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.41, "groupMedian": 2.59, "distanceFromMedian": -3.0 }, { "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility", "asset": "XRP", "value": -7.74, "groupMedian": 1.56, "distanceFromMedian": -9.3 } ], "relativeValueObservation": { "richestAsset": "TRX", "cheapestAsset": "XRP", "spread": 15.46, "metric": "1W ATM IV minus 7D realised volatility", "interpretation": "TRX screens richest and XRP cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility, with a 15.46-point cross-sectional range." }, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 11, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Cross-sectional percentiles require 20 prior aligned reports." }, "correlations": { "metric": "spotMove24hPercent", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 4 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 4 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 4 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 4 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 4 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 4 } ], "availabilityNote": "Pair correlations require 10 aligned prior reports." }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 0.96, "lowest": -1.47, "spread": 2.43, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -1.47, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.96 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.47 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.15 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.23 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 63.1, "lowest": 21.75, "spread": 41.35, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9011, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 63.1, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.16 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 63.1 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 56.5 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.75 } ], "previousSpread": 42.59, "spreadChange": -1.24, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 2.69, "lowest": -0.41, "spread": 3.1, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 2.69, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.52 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.67 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.69 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.41 } ], "previousSpread": 3.19, "spreadChange": -0.09, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-divergence", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, { "id": "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 7.72, "lowest": -7.74, "spread": 15.46, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -7.74, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -7.74 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.27 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.85 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.72 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "AVAX", "highest": 1.7, "lowest": -1.24, "spread": 2.94, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 1.7, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.55 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.7 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.24 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.19 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "News context unavailable", "summary": "News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.", "events": [], "coverage_status": "incomplete", "section_heading": "News context unavailable" }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 24, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": -0.47, "rr25Change": -0.16, "bf25Change": 0.04 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "TRX and XRP define the altcoin volatility valuation gap", "executiveSummary": "The altcoin complex was distinguished by a 15.46-volatility-point spread between TRX and XRP in one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility. That comparison places TRX at the rich end and XRP at the cheap end of the measured group.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "No qualifying news event was retained for this report window.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news context supports a direct explanation for the cross-sectional options divergence.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 1, "publishersRepresented": 1, "discoveryEventsScanned": 3, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 1, "feedEntriesScanned": 3, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 3, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 1, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": 0.65, "minimumImportance": 0.5, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25 } }, "items": [] }, "newsStatus": "incomplete", "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-09-20260909T163007Z/editorial/dossier.json" }