{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-08", "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T17:01:47+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options diverge as TRX leads XRP on one-week implied-versus-realised volatility", "standfirst": "TRX’s one-week ATM IV rose 3.39 volatility points to 21.98% over the observation window. Derivasys data show TRX’s one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility at 7.19 volatility points, versus XRP’s equivalent measure at negative 8.97 points; the cross-sectional range was 16.16 volatility points.\n\nHYPE’s one-week ATM IV was 64.57%, compared with TRX’s one-week ATM IV of 21.98%. The one-week ATM IV level gap between HYPE and TRX narrowed 4.61 volatility points to 42.59 volatility points.", "marketSummary": "The altcoin complex recorded a 16.16-volatility-point range in one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility between TRX and XRP. TRX was 7.19 volatility points above its seven-day realised volatility, while XRP was 8.97 volatility points below its seven-day realised volatility.\n\nHYPE held the highest one-week ATM IV level at 64.57%, and TRX held the lowest one-week ATM IV level at 21.98%. The HYPE–TRX one-week ATM IV level spread contracted by 4.61 volatility points to 42.59 volatility points.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.2, "previous": 53.21, "change": -0.01, "percentChange": -0.02 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.24, "previous": 1.93, "change": 1.31, "percentChange": 67.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.72, "previous": 2.97, "change": -0.25, "percentChange": -8.42 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.36, "previous": 54.23, "change": -0.87, "percentChange": -1.6 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.6, "previous": 1.64, "change": 0.96, "percentChange": 58.54 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.08, "previous": 2.82, "change": 0.26, "percentChange": 9.22 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 52.07, "previous": 54.09, "change": -2.02, "percentChange": -3.73 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.55, "previous": 2.54, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 0.39 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.21, "previous": 3.0, "change": 0.21, "percentChange": 7.0 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 50.42, "previous": 52.35, "change": -1.93, "percentChange": -3.69 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.04, "previous": 2.88, "change": 0.16, "percentChange": 5.56 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.44, "previous": 3.78, "change": -0.34, "percentChange": -8.99 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.2, "previous": 53.21, "change": -0.01, "percentChange": -0.02 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.24, "previous": 1.93, "change": 1.31, "percentChange": 67.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.72, "previous": 2.97, "change": -0.25, "percentChange": -8.42 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 2.646, "forward": { "current": 1.43, "previous": 1.39, "change": 0.04, "percentChange": 2.88 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": 2.67, "rv24hPercent": 50.82, "rv7dPercent": 62.17, "rv30dPercent": 87.93, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 53.2, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -8.97, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 2.38, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -34.73 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.57, "previous": 65.79, "change": -1.22, "percentChange": -1.85 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.38, "previous": 1.63, "change": 0.75, "percentChange": 46.01 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.5, "previous": 3.99, "change": 0.51, "percentChange": 12.78 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.28, "previous": 65.06, "change": -0.78, "percentChange": -1.2 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.52, "previous": 5.29, "change": -1.77, "percentChange": -33.46 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.44, "previous": 5.21, "change": -0.77, "percentChange": -14.78 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 63.86, "previous": 64.11, "change": -0.25, "percentChange": -0.39 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.25, "previous": 5.75, "change": -1.5, "percentChange": -26.09 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.15, "previous": 5.53, "change": -0.38, "percentChange": -6.87 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 62.89, "previous": 63.74, "change": -0.85, "percentChange": -1.33 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.37, "previous": 4.35, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 0.46 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.73, "previous": 4.95, "change": 0.78, "percentChange": 15.76 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.57, "previous": 65.79, "change": -1.22, "percentChange": -1.85 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.38, "previous": 1.63, "change": 0.75, "percentChange": 46.01 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.5, "previous": 3.99, "change": 0.51, "percentChange": 12.78 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 2.646, "forward": { "current": 83.74, "previous": 85.38, "change": -1.64, "percentChange": -1.92 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": -1.85, "rv24hPercent": 49.21, "rv7dPercent": 61.59, "rv30dPercent": 85.89, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 64.57, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 2.98, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 15.36, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -21.32 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 57.65, "previous": 57.89, "change": -0.24, "percentChange": -0.41 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.44, "previous": 2.38, "change": 0.06, "percentChange": 2.52 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.68, "previous": 4.0, "change": -0.32, "percentChange": -8.0 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 57.12, "previous": 57.69, "change": -0.57, "percentChange": -0.99 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.98, "previous": 1.63, "change": -0.65, "percentChange": -39.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.48, "previous": 3.47, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 0.29 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.08, "previous": 56.72, "change": -0.64, "percentChange": -1.13 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.32, "previous": 1.43, "change": -0.11, "percentChange": -7.69 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.88, "previous": 3.87, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 0.26 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.11, "previous": 55.42, "change": -0.31, "percentChange": -0.56 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.38, "previous": 1.24, "change": 0.14, "percentChange": 11.29 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.16, "previous": 4.48, "change": -0.32, "percentChange": -7.14 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 57.65, "previous": 57.89, "change": -0.24, "percentChange": -0.41 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.44, "previous": 2.38, "change": 0.06, "percentChange": 2.52 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.68, "previous": 4.0, "change": -0.32, "percentChange": -8.0 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 2.646, "forward": { "current": 8.03, "previous": 8.07, "change": -0.04, "percentChange": -0.5 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.46, "rv24hPercent": 61.53, "rv7dPercent": 55.62, "rv30dPercent": 65.17, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 57.65, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 2.03, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -3.88, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -7.52 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:30:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.98, "previous": 18.59, "change": 3.39, "percentChange": 18.24 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.05, "previous": 3.28, "change": -3.23, "percentChange": -98.48 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.75, "previous": 2.54, "change": -0.79, "percentChange": -31.1 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.58, "previous": 17.47, "change": 4.11, "percentChange": 23.53 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.13, "previous": 2.25, "change": -2.12, "percentChange": -94.22 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.83, "previous": 2.89, "change": -1.06, "percentChange": -36.68 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.15, "previous": 17.67, "change": 4.48, "percentChange": 25.35 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.21, "previous": -0.42, "change": 0.63, "percentChange": 150.0 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.97, "previous": 3.3, "change": -1.33, "percentChange": -40.3 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.54, "previous": 18.99, "change": 3.55, "percentChange": 18.69 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.11, "previous": -2.68, "change": 2.79, "percentChange": 104.1 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.03, "previous": 3.58, "change": -1.55, "percentChange": -43.3 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.98, "previous": 18.59, "change": 3.39, "percentChange": 18.24 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.05, "previous": 3.28, "change": -3.23, "percentChange": -98.48 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.75, "previous": 2.54, "change": -0.79, "percentChange": -31.1 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 2.646, "forward": { "current": 0.34, "previous": 0.33, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 3.03 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 35, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": 1.53, "rv24hPercent": 15.79, "rv7dPercent": 14.79, "rv30dPercent": 17.9, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 21.98, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 7.19, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 6.19, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 4.08 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 64.57, "lowest": 21.98, "spread": 42.59, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9377, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 64.57, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 53.2 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 64.57 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 57.65 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.98 } ], "previousSpread": 47.2, "spreadChange": -4.61, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 3.39, "lowest": -1.22, "spread": 4.61, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.39, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.01 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.22 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.24 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.39 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.24, "lowest": 0.05, "spread": 3.19, "highestToLowestRatio": 64.8, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.24, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.24 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.38 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.44 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.05 } ], "previousSpread": 1.65, "spreadChange": 1.54, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 1.31, "lowest": -3.23, "spread": 4.54, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -3.23, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.31 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.75 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.06 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -3.23 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "TRX", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": 3.39 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 7.19, "lowest": -8.97, "spread": 16.16, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -8.97, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -8.97 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.98 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.03 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.19 } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 3.03, "lowest": -1.92, "spread": 4.95, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.03, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.88 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.92 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.5 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.03 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 64.57, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 57.65, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 53.2, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.98, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.39, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.01, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.24, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.22, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.39, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.22, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.24, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.01, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.19, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.98, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.03, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -8.97, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.24, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.44, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.38, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.05, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.05, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.38, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.44, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.24, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": -2 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.03, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.88, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.5, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.92, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.39, "groupMedian": -0.12, "distanceFromMedian": 3.52 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.98, "groupMedian": 55.42, "distanceFromMedian": -33.44 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.05, "groupMedian": 2.41, "distanceFromMedian": -2.36 }, { "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility", "asset": "XRP", "value": -8.97, "groupMedian": 2.5, "distanceFromMedian": -11.48 } ], "relativeValueObservation": { "richestAsset": "TRX", "cheapestAsset": "XRP", "spread": 16.16, "metric": "1W ATM IV minus 7D realised volatility", "interpretation": "TRX screens richest and XRP cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility, with a 16.16-point cross-sectional range." }, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 10, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Cross-sectional percentiles require 20 prior aligned reports." }, "correlations": { "metric": "nearestEligibleForwardPercentChange", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": 0.3505, "observations": 10 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": 0.6413, "observations": 10 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": 0.5758, "observations": 10 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": 0.0707, "observations": 10 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": 0.2583, "observations": 10 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": 0.1147, "observations": 10 } ], "availabilityNote": null }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 3.39, "lowest": -1.22, "spread": 4.61, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.39, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.01 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.22 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.24 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.39 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 64.57, "lowest": 21.98, "spread": 42.59, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9377, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 64.57, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 53.2 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 64.57 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 57.65 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.98 } ], "previousSpread": 47.2, "spreadChange": -4.61, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.24, "lowest": 0.05, "spread": 3.19, "highestToLowestRatio": 64.8, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.24, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.24 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.38 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.44 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.05 } ], "previousSpread": 1.65, "spreadChange": 1.54, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-divergence", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, { "id": "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 7.19, "lowest": -8.97, "spread": 16.16, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -8.97, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -8.97 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.98 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.03 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.19 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 3.03, "lowest": -1.92, "spread": 4.95, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.03, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.88 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.92 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.5 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.03 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant market context identified", "summary": "No sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced event met the inclusion threshold during the comparison window.", "events": [] }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 24, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 0.48, "rr25Change": -0.28, "bf25Change": -0.21 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "TRX drives the altcoin options relative-value divide", "executiveSummary": "The altcoin complex recorded a 16.16-volatility-point range in one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility between TRX and XRP. TRX was 7.19 volatility points above its seven-day realised volatility, while XRP was 8.97 volatility points below its seven-day realised volatility.\n\nHYPE held the highest one-week ATM IV level at 64.57%, and TRX held the lowest one-week ATM IV level at 21.98%. The HYPE–TRX one-week ATM IV level spread contracted by 4.61 volatility points to 42.59 volatility points.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "News Check: no qualifying event materially clarified the comparative options move.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item supports an assessment of the options repricing.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-07T16:30:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 1, "publishersRepresented": 1, "discoveryEventsScanned": 9, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 1, "feedEntriesScanned": 1, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 1, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 1, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": 0.65, "minimumImportance": 0.5, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25 } }, "items": [] }, "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-08-20260908T163006Z/editorial/dossier.json" }