{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-07", "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T17:03:13+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options split as AVAX rises against HYPE", "standfirst": "Altcoin options are separating alongside an 8.49-percentage-point gap in 24-hour spot performance between AVAX and HYPE. AVAX’s one-week ATM IV rose 2.32 volatility points while XRP’s fell 2.82 points, leaving a 5.14-point change range. HYPE nevertheless retained the highest one-week implied-volatility level, and TRX the lowest.", "marketSummary": "The altcoin complex showed a conspicuous split: AVAX led the 24-hour spot comparison while HYPE lagged, and one-week ATM IV changes ranged from AVAX’s increase to XRP’s decline.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:54:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.82, "previous": 56.64, "change": -2.82, "percentChange": -4.98 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.98, "previous": 3.43, "change": -1.45, "percentChange": -42.27 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.18, "previous": 2.83, "change": 0.35, "percentChange": 12.37 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.19, "previous": 56.61, "change": -2.42, "percentChange": -4.27 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.55, "previous": 3.21, "change": -1.66, "percentChange": -51.71 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.99, "previous": 2.97, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 0.67 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.93, "previous": 55.31, "change": -1.38, "percentChange": -2.5 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.36, "previous": 2.53, "change": -1.17, "percentChange": -46.25 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.02, "previous": 3.11, "change": -0.09, "percentChange": -2.89 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 52.39, "previous": 55.42, "change": -3.03, "percentChange": -5.47 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.65, "previous": 2.57, "change": 0.08, "percentChange": 3.11 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.61, "previous": 3.19, "change": 0.42, "percentChange": 13.17 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.82, "previous": 56.64, "change": -2.82, "percentChange": -4.98 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.98, "previous": 3.43, "change": -1.45, "percentChange": -42.27 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.18, "previous": 2.83, "change": 0.35, "percentChange": 12.37 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.629, "forward": { "current": 1.4, "previous": 1.41, "change": -0.01, "percentChange": -0.71 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:54:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.82, "previous": 66.52, "change": -0.7, "percentChange": -1.05 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.73, "previous": 3.69, "change": -1.96, "percentChange": -53.12 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.87, "previous": 4.35, "change": -0.48, "percentChange": -11.03 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.32, "previous": 66.62, "change": -1.3, "percentChange": -1.95 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.74, "previous": 7.36, "change": -3.62, "percentChange": -49.18 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.86, "previous": 4.88, "change": -0.02, "percentChange": -0.41 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.34, "previous": 65.67, "change": -1.33, "percentChange": -2.03 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.3, "previous": 7.21, "change": -2.91, "percentChange": -40.36 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.62, "previous": 4.97, "change": 0.65, "percentChange": 13.08 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 63.35, "previous": 64.61, "change": -1.26, "percentChange": -1.95 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.88, "previous": 4.99, "change": -2.11, "percentChange": -42.28 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.3, "previous": 4.41, "change": 0.89, "percentChange": 20.18 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.82, "previous": 66.52, "change": -0.7, "percentChange": -1.05 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.73, "previous": 3.69, "change": -1.96, "percentChange": -53.12 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.87, "previous": 4.35, "change": -0.48, "percentChange": -11.03 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.629, "forward": { "current": 85.49, "previous": 88.25, "change": -2.76, "percentChange": -3.13 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:54:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 58.63, "previous": 56.31, "change": 2.32, "percentChange": 4.12 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.23, "previous": 2.3, "change": -0.07, "percentChange": -3.04 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.05, "previous": 4.28, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -5.37 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 58.35, "previous": 56.2, "change": 2.15, "percentChange": 3.83 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.58, "previous": 0.78, "change": 0.8, "percentChange": 102.56 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.5, "previous": 3.68, "change": -0.18, "percentChange": -4.89 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.85, "previous": 55.55, "change": 1.3, "percentChange": 2.34 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.43, "previous": 1.01, "change": 0.42, "percentChange": 41.58 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.87, "previous": 3.75, "change": 0.12, "percentChange": 3.2 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.19, "previous": 54.77, "change": 0.42, "percentChange": 0.77 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.18, "previous": 1.48, "change": -0.3, "percentChange": -20.27 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.44, "previous": 4.22, "change": 0.22, "percentChange": 5.21 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 58.63, "previous": 56.31, "change": 2.32, "percentChange": 4.12 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.23, "previous": 2.3, "change": -0.07, "percentChange": -3.04 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.05, "previous": 4.28, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -5.37 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.629, "forward": { "current": 8.06, "previous": 7.65, "change": 0.41, "percentChange": 5.36 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:54:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.63, "previous": 20.38, "change": -1.75, "percentChange": -8.59 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.29, "previous": -4.45, "change": 7.74, "percentChange": 173.93 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.53, "previous": 2.25, "change": 0.28, "percentChange": 12.44 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 17.47, "previous": 17.39, "change": 0.08, "percentChange": 0.46 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.23, "previous": -3.48, "change": 5.71, "percentChange": 164.08 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.89, "previous": 2.78, "change": 0.11, "percentChange": 3.96 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 17.68, "previous": 17.28, "change": 0.4, "percentChange": 2.31 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.43, "previous": -0.51, "change": 0.08, "percentChange": 15.69 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.29, "previous": 3.43, "change": -0.14, "percentChange": -4.08 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.88, "previous": 18.09, "change": 0.79, "percentChange": 4.37 }, "rr25": { "current": -2.64, "previous": 2.52, "change": -5.16, "percentChange": -204.76 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.6, "previous": 3.24, "change": 0.36, "percentChange": 11.11 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.63, "previous": 20.38, "change": -1.75, "percentChange": -8.59 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.29, "previous": -4.45, "change": 7.74, "percentChange": 173.93 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.53, "previous": 2.25, "change": 0.28, "percentChange": 12.44 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 3.629, "forward": { "current": 0.33, "previous": 0.34, "change": -0.01, "percentChange": -2.94 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 65.82, "lowest": 18.63, "spread": 47.19, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.533, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 65.82, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 53.82 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.82 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 58.63 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.63 } ], "previousSpread": 46.14, "spreadChange": 1.05, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 2.32, "lowest": -2.82, "spread": 5.14, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -2.82, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -2.82 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.7 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.32 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.75 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 3.29, "lowest": 1.73, "spread": 1.56, "highestToLowestRatio": 1.9017, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.29, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.98 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.73 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.23 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.29 } ], "previousSpread": 8.14, "spreadChange": -6.58, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 7.74, "lowest": -1.96, "spread": 9.7, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 7.74, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -1.45 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -1.96 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.07 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 7.74 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "XRP", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": -2.82 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 5.36, "lowest": -3.13, "spread": 8.49, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 5.36, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.71 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -3.13 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 5.36 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -2.94 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.82, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 58.63, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 53.82, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.63, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.32, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.7, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.75, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -2.82, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": -2.82, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.32, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.75, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.7, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.29, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.23, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.98, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.73, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.73, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.98, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.23, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": -1 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.29, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 5.36, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.71, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "TRX", "value": -2.94, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -3.13, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.32, "groupMedian": -1.23, "distanceFromMedian": 3.54 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.63, "groupMedian": 56.23, "distanceFromMedian": -37.59 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.29, "groupMedian": 2.1, "distanceFromMedian": 1.19 } ], "relativeValueObservation": null, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 9, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Cross-sectional percentiles require 20 prior aligned reports." }, "correlations": { "metric": "nearestEligibleForwardPercentChange", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 9 } ], "availabilityNote": "Pair correlations require 10 aligned prior reports." }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 2.32, "lowest": -2.82, "spread": 5.14, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -2.82, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -2.82 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.7 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.32 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.75 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 65.82, "lowest": 18.63, "spread": 47.19, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.533, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 65.82, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 53.82 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.82 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 58.63 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 18.63 } ], "previousSpread": 46.14, "spreadChange": 1.05, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 3.29, "lowest": 1.73, "spread": 1.56, "highestToLowestRatio": 1.9017, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.29, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.98 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.73 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.23 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.29 } ], "previousSpread": 8.14, "spreadChange": -6.58, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-divergence", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, { "id": "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 5.36, "lowest": -3.13, "spread": 8.49, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 5.36, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.71 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -3.13 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 5.36 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -2.94 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant market context identified", "summary": "No sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced event met the inclusion threshold during the comparison window.", "events": [] }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 24, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": -0.74, "rr25Change": 1.07, "bf25Change": -0.02 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "Altcoin options reflect a widening spot-performance divide", "executiveSummary": "The altcoin complex showed a conspicuous split: AVAX led the 24-hour spot comparison while HYPE lagged, and one-week ATM IV changes ranged from AVAX’s increase to XRP’s decline.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-spot-performance", "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "No qualifying news context was retained for this cross-complex comparison.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item supports an assessment of the options repricing.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-06T16:54:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-07T16:54:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 0, "publishersRepresented": 0, "discoveryEventsScanned": 7, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 0, "feedEntriesScanned": 1, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 1, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 0, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": 0.65, "minimumImportance": 0.5, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25 } }, "items": [] }, "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-07-20260907T165455Z/editorial/dossier.json" }