{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-06", "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T17:30:40+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options split as XRP–TRX one-week skew dispersion widens", "standfirst": "One-week RR25 dispersion widened to 8.35 volatility points as XRP calls became relatively richer while TRX puts became relatively richer. The divide was accompanied by a 4.74-point range in one-week ATM IV changes, leaving AVAX higher and TRX lower, rather than signalling a uniform repricing across altcoins.", "marketSummary": "The altcoin complex developed a pronounced one-week skew split, with XRP at 3.90 RR25 and TRX at -4.45 RR25.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T16:59:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.58, "previous": 54.78, "change": 1.8, "percentChange": 3.29 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.9, "previous": 1.54, "change": 2.36, "percentChange": 153.25 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.86, "previous": 2.54, "change": 0.32, "percentChange": 12.6 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.6, "previous": 56.45, "change": 0.15, "percentChange": 0.27 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.45, "previous": 1.7, "change": 1.75, "percentChange": 102.94 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.99, "previous": 2.76, "change": 0.23, "percentChange": 8.33 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.38, "previous": 55.78, "change": -0.4, "percentChange": -0.72 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.34, "previous": 1.92, "change": 0.42, "percentChange": 21.87 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.06, "previous": 3.2, "change": -0.14, "percentChange": -4.38 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.4, "previous": 55.19, "change": 0.21, "percentChange": 0.38 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.45, "previous": 2.68, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -8.58 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.15, "previous": 3.26, "change": -0.11, "percentChange": -3.37 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.58, "previous": 54.78, "change": 1.8, "percentChange": 3.29 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.9, "previous": 1.54, "change": 2.36, "percentChange": 153.25 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.86, "previous": 2.54, "change": 0.32, "percentChange": 12.6 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 4.626, "forward": { "current": 1.41, "previous": 1.42, "change": -0.01, "percentChange": -0.7 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T16:59:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.9, "previous": 64.91, "change": 0.99, "percentChange": 1.53 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.66, "previous": 3.04, "change": 0.62, "percentChange": 20.39 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.3, "previous": 3.74, "change": 0.56, "percentChange": 14.97 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.65, "previous": 65.71, "change": 0.94, "percentChange": 1.43 }, "rr25": { "current": 6.91, "previous": 3.99, "change": 2.92, "percentChange": 73.18 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.83, "previous": 4.15, "change": 0.68, "percentChange": 16.39 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.7, "previous": 65.54, "change": 1.16, "percentChange": 1.77 }, "rr25": { "current": 6.72, "previous": 4.65, "change": 2.07, "percentChange": 44.52 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.98, "previous": 4.91, "change": 0.07, "percentChange": 1.43 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.74, "previous": 64.6, "change": 0.14, "percentChange": 0.22 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.82, "previous": 5.25, "change": -0.43, "percentChange": -8.19 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.42, "previous": 5.09, "change": -0.67, "percentChange": -13.16 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.9, "previous": 64.91, "change": 0.99, "percentChange": 1.53 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.66, "previous": 3.04, "change": 0.62, "percentChange": 20.39 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.3, "previous": 3.74, "change": 0.56, "percentChange": 14.97 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 4.626, "forward": { "current": 87.93, "previous": 86.17, "change": 1.76, "percentChange": 2.04 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T16:59:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.32, "previous": 53.13, "change": 3.19, "percentChange": 6.0 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.3, "previous": 2.61, "change": -0.31, "percentChange": -11.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.28, "previous": 4.49, "change": -0.21, "percentChange": -4.68 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.21, "previous": 55.34, "change": 0.87, "percentChange": 1.57 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.77, "previous": 0.83, "change": -0.06, "percentChange": -7.23 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.67, "previous": 3.71, "change": -0.04, "percentChange": -1.08 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.56, "previous": 55.63, "change": -0.07, "percentChange": -0.13 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.01, "previous": 1.09, "change": -0.08, "percentChange": -7.34 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.73, "previous": 3.63, "change": 0.1, "percentChange": 2.75 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.78, "previous": 54.99, "change": -0.21, "percentChange": -0.38 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.48, "previous": 1.62, "change": -0.14, "percentChange": -8.64 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.2, "previous": 3.96, "change": 0.24, "percentChange": 6.06 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.32, "previous": 53.13, "change": 3.19, "percentChange": 6.0 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.3, "previous": 2.61, "change": -0.31, "percentChange": -11.88 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.28, "previous": 4.49, "change": -0.21, "percentChange": -4.68 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 4.626, "forward": { "current": 7.64, "previous": 7.57, "change": 0.07, "percentChange": 0.92 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T16:59:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 20.36, "previous": 21.91, "change": -1.55, "percentChange": -7.07 }, "rr25": { "current": -4.45, "previous": 3.17, "change": -7.62, "percentChange": -240.38 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.25, "previous": 1.93, "change": 0.32, "percentChange": 16.58 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 17.38, "previous": 17.84, "change": -0.46, "percentChange": -2.58 }, "rr25": { "current": -3.46, "previous": 2.38, "change": -5.84, "percentChange": -245.38 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.76, "previous": 2.56, "change": 0.2, "percentChange": 7.81 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 17.3, "previous": 17.42, "change": -0.12, "percentChange": -0.69 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.51, "previous": -0.13, "change": -0.38, "percentChange": -292.31 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.43, "previous": 3.41, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 0.59 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.13, "previous": 18.61, "change": -0.48, "percentChange": -2.58 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.51, "previous": -2.42, "change": 4.93, "percentChange": 203.72 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.25, "previous": 3.54, "change": -0.29, "percentChange": -8.19 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 20.36, "previous": 21.91, "change": -1.55, "percentChange": -7.07 }, "rr25": { "current": -4.45, "previous": 3.17, "change": -7.62, "percentChange": -240.38 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.25, "previous": 1.93, "change": 0.32, "percentChange": 16.58 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 4.626, "forward": { "current": 0.34, "previous": 0.33, "change": 0.01, "percentChange": 3.03 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045" } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 65.9, "lowest": 20.36, "spread": 45.54, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.2367, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 65.9, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 56.58 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.9 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 56.32 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 20.36 } ], "previousSpread": 43.0, "spreadChange": 2.54, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.19, "lowest": -1.55, "spread": 4.74, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.19, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.8 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.99 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.19 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.55 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.9, "lowest": -4.45, "spread": 8.35, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -4.45, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.9 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.66 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.3 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -4.45 } ], "previousSpread": 1.63, "spreadChange": 6.72, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 2.36, "lowest": -7.62, "spread": 9.98, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -7.62, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.36 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.62 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -0.31 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -7.62 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "AVAX", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": 3.19 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 3.03, "lowest": -0.7, "spread": 3.73, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.03, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.7 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.04 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.92 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.03 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.9, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 56.58, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 56.32, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 20.36, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.19, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.8, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.99, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.55, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.19, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.8, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.55, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.99, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.9, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.66, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.3, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": -4.45, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": -4.45, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.3, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.66, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.9, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.03, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.04, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.92, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.7, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.55, "groupMedian": 1.4, "distanceFromMedian": -2.95 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 20.36, "groupMedian": 56.45, "distanceFromMedian": -36.09 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "TRX", "value": -4.45, "groupMedian": 2.98, "distanceFromMedian": -7.43 } ], "relativeValueObservation": null, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 8, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Cross-sectional percentiles require 20 prior aligned reports." }, "correlations": { "metric": "nearestEligibleForwardPercentChange", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 8 } ], "availabilityNote": "Pair correlations require 10 aligned prior reports." }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.19, "lowest": -1.55, "spread": 4.74, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.19, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.8 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.99 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.19 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.55 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 65.9, "lowest": 20.36, "spread": 45.54, "highestToLowestRatio": 3.2367, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 65.9, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 56.58 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.9 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 56.32 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 20.36 } ], "previousSpread": 43.0, "spreadChange": 2.54, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "XRP", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.9, "lowest": -4.45, "spread": 8.35, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -4.45, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 3.9 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.66 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 2.3 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -4.45 } ], "previousSpread": 1.63, "spreadChange": 6.72, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-divergence", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, { "id": "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 3.03, "lowest": -0.7, "spread": 3.73, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.03, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.7 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 2.04 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.92 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.03 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant market context identified", "summary": "No sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced event met the inclusion threshold during the comparison window.", "events": [] }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 24, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": 1.11, "rr25Change": -1.24, "bf25Change": 0.25 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "Altcoin skew dispersion becomes the defining options move", "executiveSummary": "The altcoin complex developed a pronounced one-week skew split, with XRP at 3.90 RR25 and TRX at -4.45 RR25.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "No qualifying news context was retained for the comparative options move.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item provides a direct explanation for the altcoin options repricing.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-05T16:59:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-06T16:59:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 2, "publishersRepresented": 1, "discoveryEventsScanned": 2, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 1, "feedEntriesScanned": 2, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 2, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 2, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": 0.65, "minimumImportance": 0.5, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25 } }, "items": [] }, "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-06-20260906T170004Z/editorial/dossier.json" }