{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-05", "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T19:47:40+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options skew converges as TRX–XRP one-week RR25 spread narrows", "standfirst": "One-week RR25 levels across TRX and XRP are tightly grouped. One-week ATM IV levels span 40.97 volatility points between HYPE and TRX.", "marketSummary": "The altcoin complex’s clearest move was a sharp convergence in one-week relative call-side volatility, rather than a uniform change in implied-volatility levels.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T18:43:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.5, "previous": 55.06, "change": -0.56, "percentChange": -1.02 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.91, "previous": 1.2, "change": 1.71, "percentChange": 142.5 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.71, "previous": 2.54, "change": 0.17, "percentChange": 6.69 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.08, "previous": 57.13, "change": -1.05, "percentChange": -1.84 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.71, "previous": 1.97, "change": 1.74, "percentChange": 88.32 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.93, "previous": 2.61, "change": 0.32, "percentChange": 12.26 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.65, "previous": 56.04, "change": -0.39, "percentChange": -0.7 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.6, "previous": 2.24, "change": 0.36, "percentChange": 16.07 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.34, "previous": 3.18, "change": 0.16, "percentChange": 5.03 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.36, "previous": 55.51, "change": -0.15, "percentChange": -0.27 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.74, "previous": 2.55, "change": 0.19, "percentChange": 7.45 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.14, "previous": 3.37, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -6.82 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.5, "previous": 55.06, "change": -0.56, "percentChange": -1.02 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.91, "previous": 1.2, "change": 1.71, "percentChange": 142.5 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.71, "previous": 2.54, "change": 0.17, "percentChange": 6.69 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 5.553, "forward": { "current": 1.42, "previous": 1.4, "change": 0.02, "percentChange": 1.43 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical XRP index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405" }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T18:43:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 62.25, "previous": 62.78, "change": -0.53, "percentChange": -0.84 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.27, "previous": 4.11, "change": -0.84, "percentChange": -20.44 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.93, "previous": 4.69, "change": -0.76, "percentChange": -16.2 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 63.75, "previous": 64.85, "change": -1.1, "percentChange": -1.7 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.98, "previous": 2.78, "change": 1.2, "percentChange": 43.17 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.98, "previous": 4.26, "change": -0.28, "percentChange": -6.57 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 64.75, "previous": 64.98, "change": -0.23, "percentChange": -0.35 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.07, "previous": 3.77, "change": 0.3, "percentChange": 7.96 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.51, "previous": 4.33, "change": 0.18, "percentChange": 4.16 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.07, "previous": 64.79, "change": 1.28, "percentChange": 1.98 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.9, "previous": 4.53, "change": 0.37, "percentChange": 8.17 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.74, "previous": 5.29, "change": -0.55, "percentChange": -10.4 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 62.25, "previous": 62.78, "change": -0.53, "percentChange": -0.84 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.27, "previous": 4.11, "change": -0.84, "percentChange": -20.44 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.93, "previous": 4.69, "change": -0.76, "percentChange": -16.2 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 5.553, "forward": { "current": 85.52, "previous": 85.27, "change": 0.25, "percentChange": 0.29 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical HYPE index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405" }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T18:43:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.39, "previous": 52.61, "change": 0.78, "percentChange": 1.48 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.41, "previous": 3.22, "change": 0.19, "percentChange": 5.9 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.55, "previous": 4.6, "change": -0.05, "percentChange": -1.09 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.0, "previous": 53.76, "change": 1.24, "percentChange": 2.31 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.06, "previous": 0.99, "change": 1.07, "percentChange": 108.08 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.84, "previous": 3.41, "change": 0.43, "percentChange": 12.61 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.45, "previous": 55.3, "change": 0.15, "percentChange": 0.27 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.4, "previous": 1.68, "change": -0.28, "percentChange": -16.67 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.7, "previous": 3.6, "change": 0.1, "percentChange": 2.78 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.27, "previous": 55.54, "change": -0.27, "percentChange": -0.49 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.72, "previous": 2.21, "change": -0.49, "percentChange": -22.17 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.08, "previous": 4.01, "change": 0.07, "percentChange": 1.75 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.39, "previous": 52.61, "change": 0.78, "percentChange": 1.48 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.41, "previous": 3.22, "change": 0.19, "percentChange": 5.9 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.55, "previous": 4.6, "change": -0.05, "percentChange": -1.09 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 5.553, "forward": { "current": 7.61, "previous": 7.36, "change": 0.25, "percentChange": 3.4 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical AVAX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405" }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T18:43:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.28, "previous": 21.07, "change": 0.21, "percentChange": 1.0 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.47, "previous": -0.77, "change": 4.24, "percentChange": 550.65 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.21, "previous": 1.73, "change": 0.48, "percentChange": 27.75 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.06, "previous": 20.86, "change": -2.8, "percentChange": -13.42 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.49, "previous": -0.39, "change": 2.88, "percentChange": 738.46 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.83, "previous": 1.67, "change": 1.16, "percentChange": 69.46 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 17.59, "previous": 21.14, "change": -3.55, "percentChange": -16.79 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.21, "previous": -0.26, "change": 0.05, "percentChange": 19.23 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.27, "previous": 1.94, "change": 1.33, "percentChange": 68.56 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 18.31, "previous": 21.54, "change": -3.23, "percentChange": -15.0 }, "rr25": { "current": -2.04, "previous": -0.55, "change": -1.49, "percentChange": -270.91 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.66, "previous": 2.33, "change": 1.33, "percentChange": 57.08 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 21.28, "previous": 21.07, "change": 0.21, "percentChange": 1.0 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.47, "previous": -0.77, "change": 4.24, "percentChange": 550.65 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.21, "previous": 1.73, "change": 0.48, "percentChange": 27.75 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 5.554, "forward": { "current": 0.33, "previous": 0.33, "change": 0.0, "percentChange": 0.0 } }, "realisedVolatility": null, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": "Canonical TRX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405" } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 62.25, "lowest": 21.28, "spread": 40.97, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9253, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 62.25, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.5 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 62.25 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 53.39 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.28 } ], "previousSpread": 41.71, "spreadChange": -0.74, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 0.78, "lowest": -0.56, "spread": 1.34, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 0.78, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.56 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.53 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.78 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.21 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 3.47, "lowest": 2.91, "spread": 0.56, "highestToLowestRatio": 1.1924, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.47, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.91 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.27 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.41 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.47 } ], "previousSpread": 4.88, "spreadChange": -4.32, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "HYPE", "highest": 4.24, "lowest": -0.84, "spread": 5.08, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 4.24, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.71 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.84 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.19 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 4.24 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "AVAX", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": 0.78 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.4, "lowest": 0.0, "spread": 3.4, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.4, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.43 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.29 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.4 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.0 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 62.25, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.5, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 53.39, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.28, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.78, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.21, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.53, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.56, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.78, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.56, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.53, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.21, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.47, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.41, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.27, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -2 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.91, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": -1 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.91, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.27, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.41, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.47, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.4, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.43, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.29, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.0, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.78, "groupMedian": -0.16, "distanceFromMedian": 0.94 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.28, "groupMedian": 53.95, "distanceFromMedian": -32.66 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.91, "groupMedian": 3.34, "distanceFromMedian": -0.43 } ], "relativeValueObservation": null, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 7, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Cross-sectional percentiles require 20 prior aligned reports." }, "correlations": { "metric": "nearestEligibleForwardPercentChange", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 7 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 7 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 7 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 7 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 7 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 7 } ], "availabilityNote": "Pair correlations require 10 aligned prior reports." }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 0.78, "lowest": -0.56, "spread": 1.34, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 0.78, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -0.56 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.53 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.78 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.21 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 62.25, "lowest": 21.28, "spread": 40.97, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9253, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 62.25, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 54.5 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 62.25 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 53.39 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 21.28 } ], "previousSpread": 41.71, "spreadChange": -0.74, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 3.47, "lowest": 2.91, "spread": 0.56, "highestToLowestRatio": 1.1924, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "TRX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.47, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 2.91 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.27 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.41 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 3.47 } ], "previousSpread": 4.88, "spreadChange": -4.32, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-divergence", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, { "id": "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.4, "lowest": 0.0, "spread": 3.4, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.4, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 1.43 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.29 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.4 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant market context identified", "summary": "No sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced event met the inclusion threshold during the comparison window.", "events": [] }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 24, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": -0.03, "rr25Change": 1.32, "bf25Change": -0.04 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "Altcoin skew compression leaves a narrow one-week range", "executiveSummary": "The altcoin complex’s clearest move was a sharp convergence in one-week relative call-side volatility, rather than a uniform change in implied-volatility levels.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "No report-relevant news context qualified for inclusion.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item supports an assessment of the options repricing.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-04T18:43:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-05T18:43:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 0, "publishersRepresented": 0, "discoveryEventsScanned": 63, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 0, "feedEntriesScanned": 0, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 0, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 0, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": 0.65, "minimumImportance": 0.5, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25 } }, "items": [] }, "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-05-20260905T184628Z/editorial/dossier.json" }