{ "schemaVersion": 1, "currency": "ALTS", "reportDate": "2026-09-04", "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T16:55:41+00:00", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "comparisonCutoffAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "headline": "Altcoin options split as XRP leads one-week volatility compression", "standfirst": "Altcoin one-week volatility pricing diverged, led by XRP’s compression while TRX remained richest relative to realised volatility. Relative value, rather than a uniform complex repricing, defined the session.", "marketSummary": "TRX remained richest and XRP cheapest on one-week implied volatility relative to seven-day realised volatility.", "rows": [ { "asset": "XRP", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.87, "previous": 59.99, "change": -4.12, "percentChange": -6.87 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.15, "previous": 4.29, "change": -4.14, "percentChange": -96.5 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.85, "previous": 3.61, "change": -0.76, "percentChange": -21.05 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 57.48, "previous": 57.85, "change": -0.37, "percentChange": -0.64 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.53, "previous": 2.68, "change": -1.15, "percentChange": -42.91 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.63, "previous": 3.68, "change": -1.05, "percentChange": -28.53 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 56.11, "previous": 56.18, "change": -0.07, "percentChange": -0.12 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.37, "previous": 1.81, "change": -0.44, "percentChange": -24.31 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.17, "previous": 3.25, "change": -0.08, "percentChange": -2.46 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.71, "previous": 56.02, "change": -0.31, "percentChange": -0.55 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.6, "previous": 3.03, "change": -0.43, "percentChange": -14.19 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.24, "previous": 3.59, "change": -0.35, "percentChange": -9.75 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.87, "previous": 59.99, "change": -4.12, "percentChange": -6.87 }, "rr25": { "current": 0.15, "previous": 4.29, "change": -4.14, "percentChange": -96.5 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.85, "previous": 3.61, "change": -0.76, "percentChange": -21.05 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 6.633, "forward": { "current": 1.41, "previous": 1.46, "change": -0.05, "percentChange": -3.42 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": -3.58, "rv24hPercent": 91.06, "rv7dPercent": 66.51, "rv30dPercent": 87.08, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 55.87, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -10.64, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -35.19, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -31.21 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.75, "previous": 65.3, "change": 0.45, "percentChange": 0.69 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.38, "previous": 3.42, "change": -0.04, "percentChange": -1.17 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.42, "previous": 4.1, "change": 1.32, "percentChange": 32.2 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.26, "previous": 67.0, "change": -1.74, "percentChange": -2.6 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.75, "previous": 5.89, "change": -2.14, "percentChange": -36.33 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.61, "previous": 4.67, "change": -0.06, "percentChange": -1.28 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.51, "previous": 66.27, "change": 0.24, "percentChange": 0.36 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.8, "previous": 3.65, "change": 1.15, "percentChange": 31.51 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.68, "previous": 4.81, "change": -0.13, "percentChange": -2.7 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 66.12, "previous": 66.76, "change": -0.64, "percentChange": -0.96 }, "rr25": { "current": 4.97, "previous": 3.56, "change": 1.41, "percentChange": 39.61 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.99, "previous": 4.22, "change": 0.77, "percentChange": 18.25 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 65.75, "previous": 65.3, "change": 0.45, "percentChange": 0.69 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.38, "previous": 3.42, "change": -0.04, "percentChange": -1.17 }, "bf25": { "current": 5.42, "previous": 4.1, "change": 1.32, "percentChange": 32.2 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 6.633, "forward": { "current": 85.2, "previous": 84.14, "change": 1.06, "percentChange": 1.26 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": 1.35, "rv24hPercent": 85.5, "rv7dPercent": 67.87, "rv30dPercent": 85.13, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 65.75, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -2.12, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -19.75, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -19.38 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.59, "previous": 53.18, "change": 0.41, "percentChange": 0.77 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.93, "previous": -0.99, "change": 4.92, "percentChange": 496.97 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.83, "previous": 3.53, "change": 1.3, "percentChange": 36.83 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 54.78, "previous": 54.4, "change": 0.38, "percentChange": 0.7 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.61, "previous": -0.3, "change": 1.91, "percentChange": 636.67 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.45, "previous": 3.62, "change": -0.17, "percentChange": -4.7 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.73, "previous": 55.42, "change": 0.31, "percentChange": 0.56 }, "rr25": { "current": 1.68, "previous": 0.77, "change": 0.91, "percentChange": 118.18 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.62, "previous": 3.69, "change": -0.07, "percentChange": -1.9 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 55.43, "previous": 55.7, "change": -0.27, "percentChange": -0.48 }, "rr25": { "current": 2.23, "previous": 1.68, "change": 0.55, "percentChange": 32.74 }, "bf25": { "current": 3.95, "previous": 3.9, "change": 0.05, "percentChange": 1.28 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 53.59, "previous": 53.18, "change": 0.41, "percentChange": 0.77 }, "rr25": { "current": 3.93, "previous": -0.99, "change": 4.92, "percentChange": 496.97 }, "bf25": { "current": 4.83, "previous": 3.53, "change": 1.3, "percentChange": 36.83 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 6.633, "forward": { "current": 7.39, "previous": 7.54, "change": -0.15, "percentChange": -1.99 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": -1.75, "rv24hPercent": 60.63, "rv7dPercent": 49.61, "rv30dPercent": 63.11, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 53.59, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 3.98, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -7.04, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -9.52 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "currentSnapshotAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "previousSnapshotAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00", "comparisonStatus": "available", "comparisonNote": null, "rejectedPreviousSnapshotAt": null, "currentListedExpiries": 7, "comparedListedExpiries": 6, "tenors": [ { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.34, "previous": 22.86, "change": -0.52, "percentChange": -2.27 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.0, "previous": 0.63, "change": -1.63, "percentChange": -258.73 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.92, "previous": 1.51, "change": 0.41, "percentChange": 27.15 } }, { "tenor": "2W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.67, "previous": 21.28, "change": 1.39, "percentChange": 6.53 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.47, "previous": -0.06, "change": -0.41, "percentChange": -683.33 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.71, "previous": 1.74, "change": -0.03, "percentChange": -1.72 } }, { "tenor": "1M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.67, "previous": 21.59, "change": 1.08, "percentChange": 5.0 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.25, "previous": 0.15, "change": -0.4, "percentChange": -266.67 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.99, "previous": 1.95, "change": 0.04, "percentChange": 2.05 } }, { "tenor": "3M", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.23, "previous": 21.29, "change": 0.94, "percentChange": 4.42 }, "rr25": { "current": -0.43, "previous": 0.14, "change": -0.57, "percentChange": -407.14 }, "bf25": { "current": 2.25, "previous": 2.2, "change": 0.05, "percentChange": 2.27 } }, { "tenor": "6M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "9M", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } }, { "tenor": "1Y", "availability": "unavailable", "unavailableReason": "The target tenor is not bracketed by listed expiries; extrapolated values are suppressed.", "atmIv": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "rr25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null }, "bf25": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change": null, "percentChange": null } } ], "oneWeek": { "tenor": "1W", "availability": "available", "unavailableReason": null, "atmIv": { "current": 22.34, "previous": 22.86, "change": -0.52, "percentChange": -2.27 }, "rr25": { "current": -1.0, "previous": 0.63, "change": -1.63, "percentChange": -258.73 }, "bf25": { "current": 1.92, "previous": 1.51, "change": 0.41, "percentChange": 27.15 } }, "nearestEligibleForward": { "label": "11SEP26", "daysToExpiry": 6.633, "forward": { "current": 0.33, "previous": 0.33, "change": 0.0, "percentChange": 0.0 } }, "realisedVolatility": { "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)", "fallbackObservations": 0, "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.", "samplingInterval": "1 minute", "annualizationBasis": "365 days", "windowEnd": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "spotMove24hPercent": -0.37, "rv24hPercent": 15.88, "rv7dPercent": 16.28, "rv30dPercent": 17.81, "observations": { "24h": 1440, "7d": 10080, "30d": 43200 }, "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 22.34, "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 6.06, "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 6.46, "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 4.53 }, "realisedVolatilityUnavailableReason": null } ], "crossAssetAnalysis": { "schemaVersion": 1, "purpose": "Identify what is unusual across the altcoin options complex, not produce four mini reports.", "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "comparableAssets": [ "XRP", "HYPE", "AVAX", "TRX" ], "oneWeek": { "atmIvLevel": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 65.75, "lowest": 22.34, "spread": 43.41, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9432, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 65.75, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 55.87 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.75 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 53.59 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 22.34 } ], "previousSpread": 42.44, "spreadChange": 0.97, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, "atmIvChange": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 0.45, "lowest": -4.12, "spread": 4.57, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -4.12, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -4.12 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.45 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.41 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.52 } ] }, "rr25Level": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.93, "lowest": -1.0, "spread": 4.93, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.93, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.15 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.38 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.93 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.0 } ], "previousSpread": 5.28, "spreadChange": -0.35, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, "rr25Change": { "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 4.92, "lowest": -4.14, "spread": 9.06, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 4.92, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -4.14 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -0.04 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 4.92 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.63 } ] } }, "relativeVolatilityLeader": { "asset": "XRP", "metric": "absolute 1W ATM IV change", "value": -4.12 }, "termStructure": { "definition": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV, in volatility points", "currentSlope": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, "slopeChange": { "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } }, "relativeValue": { "ivMinusRealised7d": { "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 6.06, "lowest": -10.64, "spread": 16.7, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -10.64, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -10.64 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -2.12 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.98 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 6.06 } ] }, "spotPerformance24h": { "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 1.35, "lowest": -3.58, "spread": 4.93, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -3.58, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -3.58 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.35 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.75 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.37 } ] } }, "rankings": { "oneWeekAtmIvLevel": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.75, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 55.87, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 53.59, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": 22.34, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 0 } ], "oneWeekAtmIvChange": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.45, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.41, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.52, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -4.12, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekAtmIvAbsoluteMove": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "XRP", "value": -4.12, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.52, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.45, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.41, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "ivMinusRealised7d": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": 6.06, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.98, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": -2.12, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -10.64, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "oneWeekRr25CallRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.93, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 3 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.38, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.15, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -2 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.0, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": -1 } ], "oneWeekRr25PutRichness": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.0, "previousRank": 2, "rankChange": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.15, "previousRank": 4, "rankChange": 2 }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.38, "previousRank": 3, "rankChange": 0 }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.93, "previousRank": 1, "rankChange": -3 } ], "termStructureSlope": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "termStructureSlopeChange": [ { "rank": null, "asset": "XRP", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "HYPE", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "AVAX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": null, "asset": "TRX", "value": null, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ], "spotPerformance24h": [ { "rank": 1, "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.35, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 2, "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.37, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 3, "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.75, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null }, { "rank": 4, "asset": "XRP", "value": -3.58, "previousRank": null, "rankChange": null } ] }, "outliers": [ { "metric": "1W ATM IV change", "asset": "XRP", "value": -4.12, "groupMedian": -0.06, "distanceFromMedian": -4.07 }, { "metric": "1W ATM IV level", "asset": "TRX", "value": 22.34, "groupMedian": 54.73, "distanceFromMedian": -32.39 }, { "metric": "1W RR25 level", "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.0, "groupMedian": 1.76, "distanceFromMedian": -2.76 }, { "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility", "asset": "XRP", "value": -10.64, "groupMedian": 0.93, "distanceFromMedian": -11.57 } ], "relativeValueObservation": { "richestAsset": "TRX", "cheapestAsset": "XRP", "spread": 16.7, "metric": "1W ATM IV minus 7D realised volatility", "interpretation": "TRX screens richest and XRP cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility, with a 16.70-point cross-sectional range." }, "historicalContext": { "minimumObservations": 20, "observations": 6, "oneWeekAtmIvLevelDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekAtmIvChangeDispersionPercentile": null, "oneWeekRr25LevelDispersionPercentile": null, "termStructureDispersionPercentile": null, "ivMinusRealisedDispersionPercentile": null, "availabilityNote": "Cross-sectional percentiles require 20 prior aligned reports." }, "correlations": { "metric": "nearestEligibleForwardPercentChange", "minimumObservations": 10, "lookbackObservations": 30, "pairs": [ { "assets": [ "XRP", "HYPE" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "XRP", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "AVAX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "HYPE", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 }, { "assets": [ "AVAX", "TRX" ], "value": null, "observations": 6 } ], "availabilityNote": "Pair correlations require 10 aligned prior reports." }, "evidence": [ { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 0.45, "lowest": -4.12, "spread": 4.57, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -4.12, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -4.12 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 0.45 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 0.41 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.52 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-atm-level-dispersion", "metric": "1W ATM IV level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 65.75, "lowest": 22.34, "spread": 43.41, "highestToLowestRatio": 2.9432, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "HYPE", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 65.75, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 55.87 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 65.75 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 53.59 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 22.34 } ], "previousSpread": 42.44, "spreadChange": 0.97, "dispersionDirection": "widening" }, { "id": "alts-cross-1w-rr25-dispersion", "metric": "1W RR25 level dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "AVAX", "laggard": "TRX", "highest": 3.93, "lowest": -1.0, "spread": 4.93, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "AVAX", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": 3.93, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": 0.15 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 3.38 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.93 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -1.0 } ], "previousSpread": 5.28, "spreadChange": -0.35, "dispersionDirection": "compressing" }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-divergence", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ], "previousSpread": null, "spreadChange": null, "dispersionDirection": "unavailable" }, { "id": "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "metric": "1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": "TRX", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 6.06, "lowest": -10.64, "spread": 16.7, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -10.64, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -10.64 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": -2.12 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": 3.98 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": 6.06 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-spot-performance", "metric": "24H spot performance dispersion", "unit": "percentage points", "leader": "HYPE", "laggard": "XRP", "highest": 1.35, "lowest": -3.58, "spread": 4.93, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": "XRP", "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": -3.58, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": -3.58 }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": 1.35 }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": -1.75 }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": -0.37 } ] }, { "id": "alts-cross-term-structure-change", "metric": "1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope change dispersion", "unit": "volatility points", "leader": null, "laggard": null, "highest": null, "lowest": null, "spread": null, "highestToLowestRatio": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveAsset": null, "largestAbsoluteMoveValue": null, "values": [ { "asset": "XRP", "value": null }, { "asset": "HYPE", "value": null }, { "asset": "AVAX", "value": null }, { "asset": "TRX", "value": null } ] } ] }, "newsContext": { "outcome": "No sufficiently relevant altcoin-specific context identified", "summary": "No canonical XRP, HYPE, AVAX or TRX event qualified inside the comparison window.", "events": [] }, "methodology": { "source": "Stored Derivasys SVI surfaces", "comparison": "Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.", "availability": "Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window." }, "comparedListedExpiries": 24, "summaryMetrics": { "basis": "Equal-weight average across assets with a valid 24-hour baseline", "unit": "volatility points", "atmIvChange": -0.95, "rr25Change": -0.22, "bf25Change": 0.57 }, "commentary": { "source": "codex", "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", "headline": "Altcoin options split between TRX richness and XRP cheapness", "executiveSummary": "TRX remained richest and XRP cheapest on one-week implied volatility relative to seven-day realised volatility.", "evidenceIds": [ "alts-cross-iv-minus-realised-dispersion", "alts-cross-1w-atm-change-dispersion" ], "newsSummary": "No qualifying news context was retained for this cross-sectional options move.", "marketContextSummary": "No retained news item offers a direct explanation for the altcoin options repricing.", "marketContext": [], "newsEvidenceIds": [] }, "newsEvidence": { "schemaVersion": 1, "source": "local-news-mcp", "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "window": { "startAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00", "endAt": "2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00", "endExclusive": true }, "coverage": { "configuredSources": 1, "successfulSources": 1, "failedSources": 0 }, "provenance": { "collectionArchitecture": "central-canonical-event-store", "mcpServersQueried": 1, "assetScopedQueries": 4, "macroQueries": 1, "canonicalEventsConsidered": 2, "publishersRepresented": 2, "discoveryEventsScanned": 14, "upstreamFeedCount": null, "coverageNote": "The local news MCP exposes canonical events, not its upstream feed inventory; legacy feed-count fields below describe the single MCP endpoint and are not comparable with the former RSS collector." }, "selection": { "feedsQueried": 1, "publishersQueried": 2, "feedEntriesScanned": 2, "articlesPassingTimeFilter": 2, "articlesPassingSourceRelevanceRules": 2, "articlesPassingSelectionThreshold": 0, "storiesSelected": 0, "selectedPublishers": 0, "maximumStories": 3, "maximumStoriesPerPublisher": 2, "minimumSelectionScore": 0, "lockedEventSet": true, "qualityThresholds": { "minimumConfidence": 0.65, "minimumImportance": 0.5, "minimumSourceQuality": 0.58, "minimumCatalystScore": 0.25 } }, "items": [] }, "researchDossier": "/Users/seangordon/code/report-publisher-harness/runs/2026-09-04-20260904T164908Z/editorial/dossier.json" }